Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Body Mass Index and Cancer Risk: The Evidence for Causal Association

Increased body mass index (BMI), as an approximation of body adiposity, is a risk factor for developing several adult malignancies. To quantify these risks, we reported a comprehensive systematic review (Lancet 2008; 371: 569-78) of prospective observational studies determining associations between BMI and risk of incident cancer for 20 cancer types. We demonstrated that associations are: (i) sex-specific; (ii) exist for a wider range of malignancies than previously thought; and (iii) are broadly consistent across geographic populations. In the present paper, we tested these data against the Bradford-Hill criteria of causal association, and argue that the available data support strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence and probably analogy. However, the experimental evidence supporting reversibility is currently lacking, though indirect evidence from longitudinal data in cohort studies and long-term follow-up post-bariatric surgery is emerging. We additionally assessed these data against appropriate adjustment for available confounding factors; measurement error and study design; and residual confounding; and found lack of alternative explanations. We conclude that there is considerable evidence to support a causal association between BMI and risk for many cancer types, but in order to establish the role of weight control in cancer prevention, there is a need to develop trial frameworks in which to better test reversibility.

Prediction of psychosis in adolescents and young adults at high risk: results from the prospective European prediction of psychosis study

Indicated prevention is currently regarded as the most promising strategy to attenuate, delay, or even avert psychosis. Existing criteria need improvement in terms of specificity and individual risk assessment to allow for better targeted and earlier interventions.

Risk factors for geriatric patient falls in rehabilitation hospital settings: a systematic review

Objective: To review the literature to identify and synthesize the evidence on risk factors for patient falls in geriatric rehabilitation hospital settings. Data sources: Eligible studies were systematically searched on 16 databases from inception to December 2010. Review methods: The search strategies used a combination of terms for rehabilitation hospital patients, falls, risk factors and older adults. Cross-sectional, cohort, case-control studies and randomized clinical trials (RCTs) published in English that investigated risks for falls among patients ≥65 years of age in rehabilitation hospital settings were included. Studies that investigated fall risk assessment tools, but did not investigate risk factors themselves or did not report a measure of risk (e.g. odds ratio, relative risk) were excluded. Results: A total of 2,824 references were identified; only eight articles concerning six studies met the inclusion criteria. In these, 1,924 geriatric rehabilitation patients were followed. The average age of the patients ranged from 77 to 83 years, the percentage of women ranged from 56% to 81%, and the percentage of fallers ranged from 15% to 54%. Two were case-control studies, two were RCTs and four were prospective cohort studies. Several intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for falls were identified. Conclusion: Carpet flooring, vertigo, being an amputee, confusion, cognitive impairment, stroke, sleep disturbance, anticonvulsants, tranquilizers and antihypertensive medications, age between 71 and 80, previous falls, and need for transfer assistance are risk factors for geriatric patient falls in rehabilitation hospital settings.

Geriatric urolithiasis in the emergency department: risk factors for hospitalisation and emergency management patterns of acute urolithiasis

Urolithiasis is one of the most common conditions seen in emergency departments (ED) worldwide, with an increasing frequency in geriatric patients (>65 years). Given the high costs of emergency medical urolithiasis treatment, the need to optimise management is obvious. We aimed to determine risk factors for hospitalisation and evaluate diagnostic and emergency treatment patterns by ED physicians in geriatric urolithiasis patients to assist in optimising treatment.

The significance of at-risk symptoms for psychosis in children and adolescents

The early detection and treatment of people at risk for psychosis is currently regarded as a promising strategy in fighting the devastating consequences of psychotic disorders. Currently, the 2 most broadly used sets of at-risk criteria, that is, ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom criteria, were developed mainly in adult samples. We review the data regarding the presence and relevance of at-risk symptoms for psychosis in children and adolescents. The few existing studies suggest that attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) do have some clinical relevance in young adolescents from the general population. Nevertheless, their differentiation from atypical psychotic symptoms or an emerging schizotypal personality disorder, as well as their stability and predictive accuracy for psychosis, are still unclear. Further, standard interviews for UHR criteria do not define a minimum age for the assessment of APS and BLIPS or guidelines as to when and how to include information from parents. APS and basic symptoms may be predictive of conversion to psychosis in help-seeking young adolescents. Nevertheless, the rate and timing, and thus the required observation time, need further study. Moreover, no study has yet addressed the issue of how to treat children and adolescents presenting with at-risk symptoms and criteria. Further research is urgently needed to examine if current at-risk criteria and approaches have to be tailored to the special needs of children and adolescents. A preliminary rationale for how to deal with at-risk symptoms for psychosis in clinical practice is provided.

Pharmacological prevention and treatment in clinical at-risk states for psychosis

Over the last couple of decades, the treatment of psychoses has much advanced; yet, despite all progress, the individual and societal burden associated with psychosis and particularly schizophrenia has largely remained unchanged. Therefore, much hope is currently placed on indicated prevention as a mean to fight these burdens before they set in. Though the number of studies investigating pharmacological interventions is still limited, encouraging results have been reported from the pioneering trials, despite several methodological limitations. Furthermore, it has become clear that persons characterized by the at-risk criteria are already ill and do not only need preventive intervention, but also treatment. In consequence, outcome criteria have to be broadened to cover the current needs of the patients. As is indicated by a recent study successfully using Omega-3 fatty acids for both purposes, it may be promising to develop and investigate interventions especially for the at-risk state, independent of their effectiveness in manifest disease states. Treatment studies may become promoted by the proposed introduction of a new disorder category into DSM-V. Future prevention studies, however, need to solve the challenge of changing immediate transition rates, demanding for new risk enrichment strategies as a prerequisite for feasible trial designs.

The psychosis high-risk state: a comprehensive state-of-the-art review

Context During the past 2 decades, a major transition in the clinical characterization of psychotic disorders has occurred. The construct of a clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis has evolved to capture the prepsychotic phase, describing people presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms. The importance of this HR state has been increasingly recognized to such an extent that a new syndrome is being considered as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5. Objective To reframe the HR state in a comprehensive state-of-the-art review on the progress that has been made while also recognizing the challenges that remain. Data Sources Available HR research of the past 20 years from PubMed, books, meetings, abstracts, and international conferences. Study Selection and Data Extraction Critical review of HR studies addressing historical development, inclusion criteria, epidemiologic research, transition criteria, outcomes, clinical and functional characteristics, neurocognition, neuroimaging, predictors of psychosis development, treatment trials, socioeconomic aspects, nosography, and future challenges in the field. Data Synthesis Relevant articles retrieved in the literature search were discussed by a large group of leading worldwide experts in the field. The core results are presented after consensus and are summarized in illustrative tables and figures. Conclusions The relatively new field of HR research in psychosis is exciting. It has the potential to shed light on the development of major psychotic disorders and to alter their course. It also provides a rationale for service provision to those in need of help who could not previously access it and the possibility of changing trajectories for those with vulnerability to psychotic illnesses.

Atypical depression and alcohol misuse are related to the cardiovascular risk in the general population

OBJECTIVE: The aims of the present study were to assess the associations between mood, anxiety and substance use disorders, including their subtypes, and the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). METHOD: Thorough physical investigations, biological measures and standardized interview techniques were used to assess 3716 subjects of an urban area, aged 35-66 years. RESULTS: Atypical depression was associated with increased prevalence of overweight, diabetes and the metabolic syndrome (OR = 1.5, 95% C.I. 1.1-2.0; OR = 2.0, 95% C.I. 1.1-3.5, OR = 1.6, 95% C.I. 1.0-2.4 respectively), whereas decreased prevalence of overweight was found in melancholic (OR = 0.7, 95% C.I. 0.6-0.9) and unspecified depression (OR = 0.8, 95% C.I. 0.7-1.0). Alcohol abuse was associated with diabetes (OR = 1.8, 95% C.I. 1.1-2.9) and dyslipidemia (OR = 1.3, 95% C.I. 1.0-1.8), alcohol dependence with dyslipidemia only (OR = 1.4, 95% C.I. 1.0-2.0). Almost all mental disorders were associated with a lifetime history of regular cigarette smoking, and atypical depression, alcohol misuse and drug dependence were associated with inactivity. CONCLUSION: To conclude results emphasize the need to subtype depression and to pay particular attention to the atypical subtype. Comorbid alcohol misuse may further increase the cardiovascular risk. Efforts to diminish smoking in subjects with mental disorders could be crucial measures to reduce their high incidence of cardiovascular disease.

Ways of coping and biomarkers of an increased atherothrombotic cardiovascular disease risk in elderly individuals

Objective. To investigate the relationship between coping and atherothrombotic biomarkers of an increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the elderly. Methods. We studied 136 elderly caregiving and noncaregiving men and women who completed the Ways of Coping Checklist to assess problem-focused coping, seeking social support (SSS), blamed self, wishful thinking, and avoidance coping. They had circulating levels of 12 biomarkers measured. We also probed for potential mediator and moderator variables (chronic stress, affect, health behavior, autonomic activity) for the relation between coping and biomarkers. Results. After controlling for demographic and CVD risk factors, greater use of SSS was associated with elevated levels of serum amyloid A (P = 0.001), C-reactive protein (CRP) (P = 0.002), vascular cellular adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1 (P = 0.021), and D-dimer (P = 0.032). There were several moderator effects. For instance, greater use of SSS was associated with elevated VCAM-1 (P < 0.001) and CRP (P = 0.001) levels in subjects with low levels of perceived social support and positive affect, respectively. The other coping styles were not significantly associated with any biomarker. Conclusions. Greater use of SSS might compromise cardiovascular health through atherothrombotic mechanisms, including elevated inflammation (i.e., serum amyloid A, CRP, VCAM-1) and coagulation (i.e., D-dimer) activity. Moderating variables need to be considered in this relationship.

The role of adjuvant hormonal treatment after surgery for localized high-risk prostate cancer: results of a matched multiinstitutional analysis

Introduction. To assess the role of adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in high-risk prostate cancer patients (PCa) after surgery. Materials and Methods. The analysis case matched 172 high-risk PCa patients with positive section margins or non-organ confined disease and negative lymph nodes to receive adjuvant ADT (group 1, n = 86) or no adjuvant ADT (group 2, n = 86). Results. Only 11.6% of the patients died, 2.3% PCa related. Estimated 5-10-year clinical progression-free survival was 96.9% (94.3%) for group 1 and 73.7% (67.0%) for group 2, respectively. Subgroup analysis identified men with T2/T3a tumors at low-risk and T3b margins positive disease at higher risk for progression. Conclusion. Patients with T2/T3a tumors are at low-risk for metastatic disease and cancer-related death and do not need adjuvant ADT. We identified men with T3b margin positive disease at highest risk for clinical progression. These patients benefit from immediate adjuvant ADT.

Screening and testing for endocrine disruption in fish-biomarkers as "signposts," not "traffic lights," in risk assessment

Biomarkers are currently best used as mechanistic "signposts" rather than as "traffic lights" in the environmental risk assessment of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs). In field studies, biomarkers of exposure [e.g., vitellogenin (VTG) induction in male fish] are powerful tools for tracking single substances and mixtures of concern. Biomarkers also provide linkage between field and laboratory data, thereby playing an important role in directing the need for and design of fish chronic tests for EDCs. It is the adverse effect end points (e.g., altered development, growth, and/or reproduction) from such tests that are most valuable for calculating adverseNOEC (no observed effect concentration) or adverseEC10 (effective concentration for a 10% response) and subsequently deriving predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). With current uncertainties, biomarkerNOEC or biomarkerEC10 data should not be used in isolation to derive PNECs. In the future, however, there may be scope to increasingly use biomarker data in environmental decision making, if plausible linkages can be made across levels of organization such that adverse outcomes might be envisaged relative to biomarker responses. For biomarkers to fulfil their potential, they should be mechanistically relevant and reproducible (as measured by interlaboratory comparisons of the same protocol). VTG is a good example of such a biomarker in that it provides an insight to the mode of action (estrogenicity) that is vital to fish reproductive health. Interlaboratory reproducibility data for VTG are also encouraging; recent comparisons (using the same immunoassay protocol) have provided coefficients of variation (CVs) of 38-55% (comparable to published CVs of 19-58% for fish survival and growth end points used in regulatory test guidelines). While concern over environmental xenoestrogens has led to the evaluation of reproductive biomarkers in fish, it must be remembered that many substances act via diverse mechanisms of action such that the environmental risk assessment for EDCs is a broad and complex issue. Also, biomarkers such as secondary sexual characteristics, gonadosomatic indices, plasma steroids, and gonadal histology have significant potential for guiding interspecies assessments of EDCs and designing fish chronic tests. To strengthen the utility of EDC biomarkers in fish, we need to establish a historical control database (also considering natural variability) to help differentiate between statistically detectable versus biologically significant responses. In conclusion, as research continues to develop a range of useful EDC biomarkers, environmental decision-making needs to move forward, and it is proposed that the "biomarkers as signposts" approach is a pragmatic way forward in the current risk assessment of EDCs.

[Precancerous and high risk lesions of the oral mucosa--Diagnosis, therapy and follow-up in two cases]

Stomatologic lesions at risk to develop an oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) such as oral leukoplakia, erythroplakia/erythroleukoplakia, or oral lichen planus, need an early detection, diagnosis and a long-term/lifelong follow-up to prevent malignant transformation. In the following report, two patients are presented with oral mucosal lesions, who were referred, diagnosed, treated, and underwent follow-up examinations at the Stomatology Service of the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology at the University of Bern. These two cases emphasize the importance of early detection and managment of precancerous lesions or initial stages of OSCC. Additionally, risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol consumption and their influence on stomatologic lesions and their prognosis, will be discussed.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.