Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC risk individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Synchronous carotid and coronary bypass surgery using minimal extracorporeal circulation does not increase the risk of in-hospital stroke compared to isolated carotid endarterectomy under general anaesthesia

Gebiet: Chirurgie Abstract: Introduction: Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) could be approached in a combined or a staged fashion. Some crucial studies have shown no significant difference in peri-operative stroke and death rate in combined versus staged CEA/CABG. At present conventional extracorporeal circulation (CECC) is regarded as the gold standard for performing on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting. On contrary, the use of minimized extracorporeal circulation (MECC) for CABG diminishes hemodilution, blood-air contact, foreign surface contact and inflammatory response. At the same time, general anaesthesia (GA) is a potential risk factor for higher perioperative stroke rate after isolated CEA, not only for the ipsilateral but also for the contralateral side especially in case of contralateral high-grade stenosis or occlusion. The aim of the study was to analyze if synchronous CEA/CABG using MECC (CEA/CABG group) allows reducing the perioperative stroke risk to the level of isolated CEA performed under GA (CEA-GA group). – Methods: A retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent CEA at our institution between January 2005 and December 2012 was performed. We compared outcomes between all patients undergoing CEA/CABG to all isolated CEA-GA during the same time period. The CEA/CABG group was additionally compared to a reference group consisting of patients undergoing isolated CEA in local anaesthesia. Primary outcome was in-hospital stroke. – Results: A total of 367 CEAs were performed, from which 46 patients were excluded having either off-pump CABG or other cardiac surgery procedures than CABG combined with CEA. Out of 321 patients, 74 were in the CEA/CABG and 64 in the CEA-GA group. There was a significantly higher rate of symptomatic stenoses among patients in the CEA-GA group (p<0.002). Three (4.1%) strokes in the CEA/CABG group were registered, two ipsilateral (2.7%) and one contralateral (1.4%) to the operated side. In the CEA-GA group 2 ipsilateral strokes (3.1%) occurred. No difference was noticed between the groups (p=1.000). One patient with stroke in each group had a symptomatic stenosis preoperatively. – Conclusions: Outcome with regard to mortality and neurologic injury is very good in both -patients undergoing CEA alone as well as patients undergoing synchronous CEA and CABG using the MECC system. Although the CEA/CABG group showed slightly increased risk of stroke, it can be considered as combined treatment in particular clinical situations.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Unhealthy alcohol use, HIV infection and risk of liver fibrosis in drug users with hepatitis C

Aim To analyze alcohol use, clinical data and laboratory parameters that may affect FIB-4, an index for measuring liver fibrosis, in HCV-monoinfected and HCV/HIV-coinfected drug users. Patients and Methods Patients admitted for substance abuse treatment between 1994 and 2006 were studied. Socio-demographic data, alcohol and drug use characteristics and clinical variables were obtained through hospital records. Blood samples for biochemistry, liver function tests, CD4 cell count, and serology of HIV and HCV infection were collected at admission. Multivariate linear regression was used to analyze the predictors of FIB-4 increase. Results A total of 472 (83% M, 17% F) patients were eligible. The median age at admission was 31 years (Interquartile range (IQR) 27–35 years), and the median duration of drug use was 10 years (IQR 5.5–15 years). Unhealthy drinking (>50 grams/day) was reported in 32% of the patients. The FIB-4 scores were significantly greater in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients (1.14, IQR 0.76–1.87) than in the HCV-monoinfected patients (0.75, IQR 0.56–1.11) (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, unhealthy drinking (p = 0.034), lower total cholesterol (p = 0.042), serum albumin (p<0.001), higher GGT (p<0.001) and a longer duration of addiction (p = 0.005) were independently associated with higher FIB-4 scores in the HCV-monoinfected drug users. The effect of unhealthy drinking on FIB-4 scores disappeared in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients, whereas lower serum albumin (p<0.001), a lower CD4 cell count (p = 0.006), higher total bilirubin (p<0.001) and a longer drug addiction duration (p<0.001) were significantly associated with higher FIB-4 values. Conclusions Unhealthy alcohol use in the HCV-monoinfected patients and HIV-related immunodeficiency in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients are important risk factors associated with liver fibrosis in the respective populations.

Health risk appraisal in older people 2: the implications for clinicians and commissioners of social isolation risk in older people

BACKGROUND: Social isolation is associated with poorer health, and is seen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the major issues facing the industrialised world. AIM: To explore the significance of social isolation in the older population for GPs and for service commissioners. DESIGN OF STUDY: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal. SETTING: A total of 2641 community-dwelling, non-disabled people aged 65 years and over in suburban London. METHOD: Demographic details, social network and risk for social isolation based on the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale, measures of depressed mood, memory problems, numbers of chronic conditions, medication use, functional ability, self-reported use of medical services. RESULTS: More than 15% of the older age group were at risk of social isolation, and this risk increased with advancing age. In bivariate analyses risk of social isolation was associated with older age, education up to 16 years only, depressed mood and impaired memory, perceived fair or poor health, perceived difficulty with both basic and instrumental activities of daily living, diminishing functional ability, and fear of falling. Despite poorer health status, those at risk of social isolation did not appear to make greater use of medical services, nor were they at greater risk of hospital admission. Half of those who scored as at risk of social isolation lived with others. Multivariate analysis showed significant independent associations between risk of social isolation and depressed mood and living alone, and weak associations with male sex, impaired memory and perceived poor health. CONCLUSION: The risk of social isolation is elevated in older men, older persons who live alone, persons with mood or cognitive problems, but is not associated with greater use of services. These findings would not support population screening for individuals at risk of social isolation with a view to averting service use by timely intervention. Awareness of social isolation should trigger further assessment, and consideration of interventions to alleviate social isolation, treat depression or ameliorate cognitive impairment.

Surgical glove perforation and the risk of surgical site infection

HYPOTHESIS: Clinically apparent surgical glove perforation increases the risk of surgical site infection (SSI). DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: University Hospital Basel, with an average of 28,000 surgical interventions per year. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive series of 4147 surgical procedures performed in the Visceral Surgery, Vascular Surgery, and Traumatology divisions of the Department of General Surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome of interest was SSI occurrence as assessed pursuant to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention standards. The primary predictor variable was compromised asepsis due to glove perforation. RESULTS: The overall SSI rate was 4.5% (188 of 4147 procedures). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed a higher likelihood of SSI in procedures in which gloves were perforated compared with interventions with maintained asepsis (odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.8; P < .001). However, multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that the increase in SSI risk with perforated gloves was different for procedures with vs those without surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis (test for effect modification, P = .005). Without antimicrobial prophylaxis, glove perforation entailed significantly higher odds of SSI compared with the reference group with no breach of asepsis (adjusted OR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.7-10.8; P = .003). On the contrary, when surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis was applied, the likelihood of SSI was not significantly higher for operations in which gloves were punctured (adjusted OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.9-1.9; P = .26). CONCLUSION: Without surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis, glove perforation increases the risk of SSI.

The association of preoperative anemia and perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion with the risk of surgical site infection

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the study was to investigate allogeneic blood transfusion (ABT) and preoperative anemia as risk factors for surgical site infection (SSI). STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A prospective, observational cohort of 5873 consecutive general surgical procedures at Basel University Hospital was analyzed to determine the relationship between perioperative ABT and preoperative anemia and the incidence of SSI. ABT was defined as transfusion of leukoreduced red blood cells during surgery and anemia as hemoglobin concentration of less than 120 g/L before surgery. Surgical wounds and resulting infections were assessed to Centers for Disease Control standards. RESULTS: The overall SSI rate was 4.8% (284 of 5873). In univariable logistic regression analyses, perioperative ABT (crude odds ratio [OR], 2.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1 to 4.0; p < 0.001) and preoperative anemia (crude OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.0 to 1.7; p = 0.037) were significantly associated with an increased odds of SSI. After adjusting for 13 characteristics of the patient and the procedure in multivariable analyses, associations were substantially reduced for ABT (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.8 to 1.9; p = 0.310; OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.6 to 2.0; p = 0.817 for 1-2 blood units and >or=3 blood units, respectively) and anemia (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.7 to 1.2; p = 0.530). Duration of surgery was the main confounding variable. CONCLUSION: Our findings point to important confounding factors and strengthen existing doubts on leukoreduced ABT during general surgery and preoperative anemia as risk factors for SSIs.

Risk of very early recurrent cerebrovascular events in symptomatic carotid artery stenosis

OBJECT The risk of recurrence of cerebrovascular events within the first 72 hours of admission in patients hospitalized with symptomatic carotid artery (CA) stenoses and the risks and benefits of emergency CA intervention within the first hours after the onset of symptoms are not well known. Therefore, the authors aimed to assess (1) the ipsilateral recurrence rate within 72 hours of admission, in the period from 72 hours to 7 days, and after 7 days in patients presenting with nondisabling stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or amaurosis fugax (AF), and with an ipsilateral symptomatic CA stenosis of 50% or more, and (2) the risk of stroke in CA interventions within 48 hours of admission versus the risk in interventions performed after 48 hours. METHODS Ninety-four patients were included in this study. These patients were admitted to hospital within 48 hours of a nondisabling stroke, TIA, or AF resulting from a symptomatic CA stenosis of 50% or more. The patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (85 patients) or CA stenting (9 patients). At baseline, the cardiovascular risk factors of the patients, the degree of symptomatic CA stenosis, and the type of secondary preventive treatment were assessed. The in-hospital recurrence rate of stroke, TIA, or AF ipsilateral to the symptomatic CA stenosis was determined for the first 72 hours after admission, from 72 hours to 7 days, and after 7 days. Procedure-related cerebrovascular events were also recorded. RESULTS The median time from symptom onset to CA intervention was 5 days (interquartile range 3.00-9.25 days). Twenty-one patients (22.3%) underwent CA intervention within 48 hours after being admitted. Overall, 15 recurrent cerebrovascular events were observed in 12 patients (12.8%) in the period between admission and CA intervention: 3 strokes (2 strokes in progress and 1 stroke) (3.2%), 5 TIAs (5.3%), and 1 AF (1.1%) occurred within the first 72 hours (total 9.6%) of admission; 1 TIA (1.1%) occurred between 72 hours and 7 days, and 5 TIAs (5.3%) occurred after more than 7 days. The corresponding actuarial cerebrovascular recurrence rates were 11.4% (within 72 hours of admission), 2.4% (between 72 hours and 7 days), and 7.9% (after 7 days). Among baseline characteristics, no predictive factors for cerebrovascular recurrence were identified. Procedure-related cerebrovascular events occurred at a rate of 4.3% (3 strokes and 1 TIA), and procedures performed within the first 48 hours and procedures performed after 48 hours had a similar frequency of these events (4.5% vs. 4.1%, respectively; p = 0.896). CONCLUSIONS The in-hospital recurrence of cerebrovascular events was quite low, but all recurrent strokes occurred within 72 hours. The risk of stroke associated with a CA intervention performed within the first 48 hours was not increased compared with that for later interventions. This raises the question of the optimal timing of CA intervention in symptomatic CA stenosis. To answer this question, more data are needed, preferably from large randomized trials.

Invasive coronary treatment strategies for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a consensus statement from the European association for percutaneous cardiovascular interventions (EAPCI)/stent for life (SFL) groups

Due to significant improvement in the pre-hospital treatment of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), an increasing number of initially resuscitated patients are being admitted to hospitals. Because of the limited data available and lack of clear guideline recommendations, experts from the EAPCI and "Stent for Life" (SFL) groups reviewed existing literature and provided practical guidelines on selection of patients for immediate coronary angiography (CAG), PCI strategy, concomitant antiplatelet/anticoagulation treatment, haemodynamic support and use of therapeutic hypothermia. Conscious survivors of OHCA with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) should be treated according to recommendations for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and high-risk non-ST-segment elevation -ACS (NSTE-ACS) without OHCA and should undergo immediate (if STEMI) or rapid (less than two hours if NSTE-ACS) coronary invasive strategy. Comatose survivors of OHCA with ECG criteria for STEMI on the post-resuscitation ECG should be admitted directly to the catheterisation laboratory. For patients without STEMI ECG criteria, a short "emergency department or intensive care unit stop" is advised to exclude non-coronary causes. In the absence of an obvious non-coronary cause, CAG should be performed as soon as possible (less than two hours), in particular in haemodynamically unstable patients. Immediate PCI should be mainly directed towards the culprit lesion if identified. Interventional cardiologists should become an essential part of the "survival chain" for patients with OHCA. There is a need to centralise the care of patients with OHCA to experienced centres.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

The Risk of Seizure After Surgery for Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND We aimed to identify a group of patients with a low risk of seizure after surgery for unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA). OBJECTIVE To determine the risk of seizure after discharge from surgery for UIA. METHODS A consecutive prospectively collected cohort database was interrogated for all surgical UIA cases. There were 726 cases of UIA (excluding cases proximal to the superior cerebellar artery on the vertebrobasilar system) identified and analyzed. Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier life table analyses were generated assessing risk factors. RESULTS Preoperative seizure history and complication of aneurysm repair were the only risk factors found to be significant. The risk of first seizure after discharge from hospital following surgery for patients with neither preoperative seizure, treated middle cerebral artery aneurysm, nor postoperative complications (leading to a modified Rankin Scale score >1) was <0.1% and 1.1% at 12 months and 7 years, respectively. The risk for those with preoperative seizures was 17.3% and 66% at 12 months and 7 years, respectively. The risk for seizures with either complications (leading to a modified Rankin Scale score >1) from surgery or treated middle cerebral artery aneurysm was 1.4% and 6.8% at 12 months and 7 years, respectively. These differences in the 3 Kaplan-Meier curves were significant (log-rank P < .001). CONCLUSION The risk of seizures after discharge from hospital following surgery for UIA is very low when there is no preexisting history of seizures. If this result can be supported by other series, guidelines that restrict returning to driving because of the risk of postoperative seizures should be reconsidered. ABBREVIATIONS MCA, middle cerebral arterymRS, modified Rankin ScaleUIA, unruptured intracranial aneurysms.

Risk of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in Obese Women.

IMPORTANCE Obesity is a risk factor for deep vein thrombosis of the leg and pulmonary embolism. To date, however, whether obesity is associated with adult cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) has not been assessed. OBJECTIVE To assess whether obesity is a risk factor for CVT. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A case-control study was performed in consecutive adult patients with CVT admitted from July 1, 2006 (Amsterdam), and October 1, 2009 (Berne), through December 31, 2014, to the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, or Inselspital University Hospital in Berne, Switzerland. The control group was composed of individuals from the control population of the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis study, which was a large Dutch case-control study performed from March 1, 1999, to September 31, 2004, and in which risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism were assessed. Data analysis was performed from January 2 to July 12, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Obesity was determined by body mass index (BMI). A BMI of 30 or greater was considered to indicate obesity, and a BMI of 25 to 29.99 was considered to indicate overweight. A multiple imputation procedure was used for missing data. We adjusted for sex, age, history of cancer, ethnicity, smoking status, and oral contraceptive use. Individuals with normal weight (BMI <25) were the reference category. RESULTS The study included 186 cases and 6134 controls. Cases were younger (median age, 40 vs 48 years), more often female (133 [71.5%] vs 3220 [52.5%]), more often used oral contraceptives (97 [72.9%] vs 758 [23.5%] of women), and more frequently had a history of cancer (17 [9.1%] vs 235 [3.8%]) compared with controls. Obesity (BMI ≥30) was associated with an increased risk of CVT (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.63; 95% CI, 1.53-4.54). Stratification by sex revealed a strong association between CVT and obesity in women (adjusted OR, 3.50; 95% CI, 2.00-6.14) but not in men (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.25-5.30). Further stratification revealed that, in women who used oral contraceptives, overweight and obesity were associated with an increased risk of CVT in a dose-dependent manner (BMI 25.0-29.9: adjusted OR, 11.87; 95% CI, 5.94-23.74; BMI ≥30: adjusted OR, 29.26; 95% CI, 13.47-63.60). No association was found in women who did not use oral contraceptives. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Obesity is a strong risk factor for CVT in women who use oral contraceptives.

NT-proBNP in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Results from the FINNRESUSCI Study

AIM To assess whether the established cardiovascular biomarker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) provides prognostic information in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (OHCA-VT/VF). METHODS We measured NT-proBNP levels in 155 patients with OHCA-VT/VF enrolled into a prospective multicenter observational study in 21 ICUs in Finland. Blood samples were drawn <6h of OHCA-VT/VF and later after 24h, 48h, and 96h. The end-points were mortality and neurological outcome classified according to Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) after one year. NT-proBNP levels were compared to high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) levels and established risk scores. RESULTS NT-proBNP levels were higher in non-survivors compared to survivors on study inclusion (median 1003 [quartile (Q) 1-3 502-2457] vs. 527 [179-1284]ng/L, p=0.001) and after 24h (1913 [1012-4573] vs. 1080 [519-2210]ng/L, p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels increased from baseline to 96h after ICU admission (p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels were significantly correlated to hs-TnT levels after 24h (rho=0.27, p=0.001), but not to hs-TnT levels on study inclusion (rho=0.05, p=0.67). NT-proBNP levels at all time points were associated with clinical outcome, but only NT-proBNP levels after 24h predicted mortality and poor neurological outcome, defined as CPC 3-5, in models that adjusted for SAPS II and SOFA scores. hs-TnT levels did not add prognostic information to NT-proBNP measurements alone. CONCLUSION NT-proBNP levels at 24h improved risk assessment for poor outcome after one year on top of established risk indices, while hs-TnT measurements did not further add to risk prediction.

Periodontitis: a future risk of acute coronary syndrome? A follow-up study over 3 years

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis has been associated with cardiovascular disease. We assess if the recurrence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) could be predicted by preceding medical and periodontal conditions. METHODS: A total of 165 consecutive subjects with ACS and 159 medically healthy, matched control subjects were examined and followed for 3 years. Periodontitis was defined by alveolar bone loss. Subgingival microbial samples were studied by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. RESULTS: The recurrence of ACS was found in 66 of 165 (40.0%) subjects, and a first ACS event was found in seven of 159 (4.4%) subjects among baseline control subjects. Subjects who later had a second ACS event were older (P <0.001). Significantly higher serum levels of high-density lipoprotein (P <0.05), creatinine (P <0.01), and white blood cell (WBC) counts (P <0.001) were found in subjects with future ACS. Periodontitis was associated with a first event of ACS (crude odds ratio [OR]: 10.3:1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.1 to 17.4; P <0.001) and the recurrence of ACS (crude OR: 3.6:1; 95% CI: 2.0 to 6.6; P <0.001). General linear modeling multivariate analysis, controlling for age and the prediction of a future ACS event, identified that WBC counts (F = 20.6; P <0.001), periodontitis (F = 17.6; P <0.001), and serum creatinine counts (F = 4.5; P <0.05) were explanatory of a future ACS event. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that recurrent ACS events are predicted by serum WBC counts, serum creatinine levels, and a diagnosis of periodontitis. Significantly higher counts of putative pathogens are found in subjects with ACS, but these counts do not predict future ACS events.