A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Uranium mining industry views on ICRP statement on radon

In 2009, the International Commission on Radiological Protection issued a statement on radon which stated that the dose conversion factor for radon progeny would likely double, and the calculation of risk from radon should move to a dosimetric approach, rather than the longstanding epidemiological approach. Through the World Nuclear Association, whose members represent over 90% of the world's uranium production, industry has been examining this issue with a goal of offering expertise and knowledge to assist with the practical implementation of these evolutionary changes to evaluating the risk from radon progeny. Industry supports the continuing use of the most current epidemiological data as a basis for risk calculation, but believes that further examination of these results is needed to better understand the level of conservatism in the potential epidemiological-based risk models. With regard to adoption of the dosimetric approach, industry believes that further work is needed before this is a practical option. In particular, this work should include a clear demonstration of the validation of the dosimetric model which includes how smoking is handled, the establishment of a practical measurement protocol, and the collection of relevant data for modern workplaces. Industry is actively working to address the latter two items.

Treatment modalities for T1N0 esophageal cancers: a comparative analysis of local therapy versus surgical resection

BACKGROUND To investigate the role of nonsurgical treatment for early-stage esophageal cancer, we compared the outcomes of local therapy to esophagectomy, using a large, national database. METHODS Five-year cancer-specific and overall survival (OS) of patients, with T1N0M0 squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the mid or distal esophagus treated with either surgery or local therapy, with ablative and/or excision techniques, in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results cancer registry from 1998 to 2008, were compared using the Kaplan-Meier approach, and multivariable and propensity-score adjusted Cox proportional hazard, and competing risk models. RESULTS Of 1458 patients with T1N0 esophageal cancer, 1204 (83%) had surgery and 254 (17%) had local therapy only. The use of local therapy increased significantly from 8.1% in 1998 to 24.1% in 2008 (p < 0.001). The 5-year OS after local excisional therapy and surgery was not significantly different (55.5% versus 64.1% respectively, p = 0.07), and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) also did not differ (81.7% versus 75.8%, p = 0.10). However, after propensity-score adjustment, CSS was better for patients who underwent local therapy compared with those who underwent surgery (hazard ratio: 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.77, p = 0.003), whereas OS remained similar. CONCLUSION The use of local therapy for T1N0 esophageal cancers increased significantly from 1998 to 2008. Compared with those treated with esophagectomy, patients treated with local therapy had similar OS but improved CSS, indicating a higher chance of dying from other causes. Further studies are needed to confirm the oncologic efficacy of local therapy when used in patients whose lifespans are not limited by conditions other than esophageal cancer.

Preinterventional screening of the TAVI patient: how to choose the suitable patient and the best procedure.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a novel therapy, which has transformed the management of inoperable patients presenting with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS). It is also a proven and less invasive alternative therapeutic option for high-risk symptomatic patients presenting with severe AS who are otherwise eligible for surgical aortic valve replacement. Patient age is not strictly a limitation for TAVI but since this procedure is currently restricted to high-risk and inoperable patients, it follows that most patients selected for TAVI are at an advanced age. Patient frailty and co-morbidities need to be assessed and a clinical judgment made on whether the patient will gain a measureable improvement in their quality of life. Risk stratification has assumed a central role in selecting suitable patients and surgical risk algorithms have proven helpful in this regard. However, limitations exist with these risk models, which must be understood in the context of TAVI. When making final treatment decisions, it is essential that a collaborative multidisciplinary "heart team" be involved and this is stressed in the most recent guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology. Choosing the best procedure is contingent upon anatomical feasibility, and multimodality imaging has emerged as an integral component of the pre-interventional screening process in this regard. The transfemoral route is now considered the default approach although vascular complications remain a concern. A minimal vessel diameter of 6 mm is required for currently commercial available vascular introducer sheaths. Several alternative access routes are available to choose from when confronted with difficult iliofemoral anatomy such as severe peripheral vascular disease or diffuse circumferential vessel calcification. The degree of aortic valve leaflet and annular calcification also needs to be assessed as the latter is a risk factor for post-procedural paravalvular aortic regurgitation. The ultimate goal of patient selection is to achieve the highest procedural success rate while minimizing complications and to choose patients most likely to derive tangible benefit from this procedure.

Retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and lactating women starting art under Option B+ in rural Mozambique.

OBJECTIVE In 2013, Mozambique adopted Option B+, universal lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all pregnant and lactating women, as national strategy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. We analyzed retention in care of pregnant and lactating women starting Option B+ in rural northern Mozambique. METHODS We compared ART outcomes in pregnant ("B+pregnant"), lactating ("B+lactating") and non-pregnant-non-lactating women of childbearing age starting ART after clinical and/or immunological criteria ("own health") between July 2013 and June 2014. Lost to follow-up was defined as no contact >180 days after the last visit. Multivariable competing risk models were adjusted for type of facility (type 1 vs. peripheral type 2 health center), age, WHO stage and time from HIV diagnosis to ART. RESULTS Over 333 person-years of follow-up (of 243 "B+pregnant", 65″B+lactating" and 317 "own health" women), 3.7% of women died and 48.5% were lost to follow-up. "B+pregnant" and "B+lactating" women were more likely to be lost in the first year (57% vs. 56.9% vs. 31.6%; p<0.001) and to have no follow-up after the first visit (42.4% vs. 29.2% vs. 16.4%; p<0.001) than "own health" women. In adjusted analyses, risk of being lost to follow-up was higher in "B+pregnant" (adjusted subhazard ratio [asHR]: 2.77; 95% CI: 2.18-3.50; p<0.001) and "B+lactating" (asHR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.37-2.74; p<0.001). Type 2 health center was the only additional significant risk factor for loss to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Retaining pregnant and lactating women in option B+ ART was poor; losses to follow-up were mainly early. The success of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in rural settings with weak health systems will depend on specific improvements in counseling and retention measures, especially at the beginning of treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Risk factors promoting hypertensive crises: evidence from a longitudinal study

Background Current knowledge about risk factors promoting hypertensive crisis originates from retrospective data. Therefore, potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis were assessed in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods Eighty-nine patients of the medical outpatient unit at the University Hospital of Bern (Bern, Switzerland) with previously diagnosed hypertension participated in this study. At baseline, 33 potential risk factors were assessed. All patients were followed-up for the outcome of hypertensive crisis. Cox regression models were used to detect relationships between risk factors and hypertensive crisis (defined as acute rise of systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥200mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥120mmHg). Results The mean duration of follow-up was 1.6 ± 0.3 years (range 1.0–2.4 years). Four patients (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. Thirteen patients (15.3%) experienced hypertensive crisis during follow-up. Several potential risk factors were significantly associated with hypertensive crisis: female sex, higher grades of obesity, the presence of a hypertensive or coronary heart disease, the presence of a somatoform disorder, a higher number of antihypertensive drugs, and nonadherence to medication. As measured by the hazard ratio, nonadherence was the most important factor associated with hypertensive crisis (hazard ratio 5.88, 95% confidence interval 1.59–21.77, P < 0.01). Conclusions This study identified several potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis. Results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that improvement of medical adherence in antihypertensive therapy would help to prevent hypertensive crises. However, larger studies are needed to assess potential confounding, other risk factors and the possibility of interaction between predictors.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism

Treatment guidelines recommend strong consideration of thrombolysis in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) that present with arterial hypotension or shock because of the high risk of death in this setting. For haemodynamically stable patients with PE, the categorization of risk for subgroups may assist with decision-making regarding PE therapy. Clinical models [e.g. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI)] may accurately identify those at low risk of overall death in the first 3 months after the diagnosis of PE, and such patients might benefit from an abbreviated hospital stay or outpatient therapy. Though some evidence suggests that a subset of high-risk normotensive patients with PE may have a reasonable risk to benefit ratio for thrombolytic therapy, single markers of right ventricular dysfunction (e.g. echocardiography, spiral computed tomography, or brain natriuretic peptide testing) and myocardial injury (e.g. cardiac troponin T or I testing) have an insufficient positive predictive value for PE-specific mortality to drive decision-making toward such therapy. Recommendations for outpatient treatment or thrombolytic therapy for patients with PE necessitate further development of prognostic models and conduct of clinical trials that assess various treatment strategies.

A strategy combining imaging and laboratory biomarkers in comparison with a simplified clinical score for risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism

This study aimed to assess the performance of two prognostic models-the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI)-in predicting short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE).

Tuberculosis in HIV programmes in lower-income countries: practices and risk factors

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a common diagnosis in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART). OBJECTIVE: To describe TB-related practices in ART programmes in lower-income countries and identify risk factors for TB in the first year of ART. METHODS: Programme characteristics were assessed using standardised electronic questionnaire. Patient data from 2003 to 2008 were analysed and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) calculated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Fifteen ART programmes in 12 countries in Africa, South America and Asia were included. Chest X-ray, sputum microscopy and culture were available free of charge in respectively 13 (86.7%), 14 (93.3%) and eight (53.3%) programmes. Eight sites (53.3%) used directly observed treatment and five (33.3%) routinely administered isoniazid preventive treatment (IPT). A total of 19 413 patients aged ≥16 years contributed 13 227 person-years of follow-up; 1081 new TB events were diagnosed. Risk factors included CD4 cell count (>350 cells/μl vs. <25 cells/μl, adjusted IRR 0.46, 95%CI 0.33–0.64, P < 0.0001), sex (women vs. men, adjusted IRR 0.77, 95%CI 0.68–0.88, P = 0.0001) and use of IPT (IRR 0.24, 95%CI 0.19–0.31, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic capacity and practices vary widely across ART programmes. IPT prevented TB, but was used in few programmes. More efforts are needed to reduce the burden of TB in HIV co-infected patients in lower income countries.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.