Credibility for sale

We develop a model where a sovereign’s incentive to repay its debt depends on the identity of its creditors. Higher exposure to official lenders improves incentives and thus credibility, for instance, because default would jeopardize the benefits from membership in a club (such as EU or EMU). But higher exposure also carries costs, because of reduced flexibility ex post and because official lenders may collude to extract rents. We characterize the equilibrium composition of debt across creditor groups as well as equilibrium debt prices. Our model can account for an important— and still unexplained—feature of sovereign debt crises: Official lending to sovereigns takes place only in times of debt distress and carries a favorable rate. It also offers a novel perspective on the interaction between deficits, debt overhang and the availability of official funds in determining default risk.

Bovine Tuberculosis Risk Factors for British Herds Before and After the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic: What have we Learned from the TB99 and CCS2005 Studies?

Over the last couple of decades, the UK experienced a substantial increase in the incidence and geographical spread of bovine tuberculosis (TB), in particular since the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in 2001. The initiation of the Randomized Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) in 1998 in south-west England provided an opportunity for an in-depth collection of questionnaire data (covering farming practices, herd management and husbandry, trading and wildlife activity) from herds having experienced a TB breakdown between 1998 and early 2006 and randomly selected control herds, both within and outside the RBCT (the so-called TB99 and CCS2005 case-control studies). The data collated were split into four separate and comparable substudies related to either the pre-FMD or post-FMD period, which are brought together and discussed here for the first time. The findings suggest that the risk factors associated with TB breakdowns may have changed. Higher Mycobacterium bovis prevalence in badgers following the FMD epidemic may have contributed to the identification of the presence of badgers on a farm as a prominent TB risk factor only post-FMD. The strong emergence of contact/trading TB risk factors post-FMD suggests that the purchasing and movement of cattle, which took place to restock FMD-affected areas after 2001, may have exacerbated the TB problem. Post-FMD analyses also highlighted the potential impact of environmental factors on TB risk. Although no unique and universal solution exists to reduce the transmission of TB to and among British cattle, there is an evidence to suggest that applying the broad principles of biosecurity on farms reduces the risk of infection. However, with trading remaining as an important route of local and long-distance TB transmission, improvements in the detection of infected animals during pre- and post-movement testing should further reduce the geographical spread of the disease.

Prediction of Post-Weaning Fibrinogen Status during Cardiopulmonary Bypass: An Observational Study in 110 Patients.

BACKGROUND After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.

The influence of a continuous rate infusion of dexmedetomidine on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation during isoflurane anaesthesia in dogs

Objective To examine the influence of a low dose dexmedetomidine infusion on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation in dogs during isoflurane anaesthesia. Study design Prospective experimental blinded cross-over study. Animals Eight healthy mixed breed dogs, body weight Mean +/- SD 26.5 +/- 8.4 kg and age 25 +/- 16 months. Methods Anaesthesia was induced with propofol and maintained with isoflurane (Fe'ISO 1.3%) delivered in oxygen and air. After stabilization, baseline recordings (time 0) were obtained, then a dexmedetomidine bolus (1 mug kg(-1) IV) followed by a continuous rate infusion (1 mug kg(-1) hour(-1) ) or saline placebo were administered. At times 10, 30 and 60 minutes after the initial bolus, electrical stimulations of increasing intensity were applied over the lateral plantar digital nerve, and administered both as single and as repeated stimuli. The resulting reflex responses were recorded using electromyography. Data were analysed using a multivariable linear regression model and a Kruskal Wallis test for single stimulation data, and repeated measures anova and paired t-test for repeated stimulation data. Results The AUC for the stimulus-response curves after single stimulation were similar for both treatments at time 0. At times 10, 30 and 60 the AUCs for the stimulus-response curves were significantly lower with dexmedetomidine treatment than with placebo. Temporal summation was evident in both treatments at times 0, 10, 30 and 60 starting from a stimulation intensity of 10 mA. The magnitude of temporal summation was smaller in dexmedetomidine than in placebo treated dogs at time 10, 30 and 60, but not at time 0. Conclusions During isoflurane anaesthesia, low dose dexmedetomidine suppresses the nociceptive reflex responses after single and repeated electrical stimulation. Clinical relevance This experimental study confirms previous reports on its peri-operative efficacy under clinical conditions, and further indicates that dexmedetomidine might reduce the risk of post-operative chronic pain development.

Interventions for the management of mandibular fractures

BACKGROUND Fractures of the mandible (lower jaw) are a common occurrence and usually related to interpersonal violence or road traffic accidents. Mandibular fractures may be treated using open (surgical) and closed (non-surgical) techniques. Fracture sites are immobilized with intermaxillary fixation (IMF) or other external or internal devices (i.e. plates and screws) to allow bone healing. Various techniques have been used, however uncertainty exists with respect to the specific indications for each approach. OBJECTIVES The objective of this review is to provide reliable evidence of the effects of any interventions either open (surgical) or closed (non-surgical) that can be used in the management of mandibular fractures, excluding the condyles, in adult patients. SEARCH METHODS We searched the following electronic databases: the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register (to 28 February 2013), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 1), MEDLINE via OVID (1950 to 28 February 2013), EMBASE via OVID (1980 to 28 February 2013), metaRegister of Controlled Trials (to 7 April 2013), ClinicalTrials.gov (to 7 April 2013) and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (to 7 April 2013). The reference lists of all trials identified were checked for further studies. There were no restrictions regarding language or date of publication. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials evaluating the management of mandibular fractures without condylar involvement. Any studies that compared different treatment approaches were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS At least two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Results were to be expressed as random-effects models using mean differences for continuous outcomes and risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes with 95% confidence intervals. Heterogeneity was to be investigated to include both clinical and methodological factors. MAIN RESULTS Twelve studies, assessed as high (six) and unclear (six) risk of bias, comprising 689 participants (830 fractures), were included. Interventions examined different plate materials and morphology; use of one or two lag screws; microplate versus miniplate; early and delayed mobilization; eyelet wires versus Rapid IMF™ and the management of angle fractures with intraoral access alone or combined with a transbuccal approach. Patient-oriented outcomes were largely ignored and post-operative pain scores were inadequately reported. Unfortunately, only one or two trials with small sample sizes were conducted for each comparison and outcome. Our results and conclusions should therefore be interpreted with caution. We were able to pool the results for two comparisons assessing one outcome. Pooled data from two studies comparing two miniplates versus one miniplate revealed no significant difference in the risk of post-operative infection of surgical site (risk ratio (RR) 1.32, 95% CI 0.41 to 4.22, P = 0.64, I(2) = 0%). Similarly, no difference in post-operative infection between the use of two 3-dimensional (3D) and standard (2D) miniplates was determined (RR 1.26, 95% CI 0.19 to 8.13, P = 0.81, I(2) = 27%). The included studies involved a small number of participants with a low number of events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS This review illustrates that there is currently inadequate evidence to support the effectiveness of a single approach in the management of mandibular fractures without condylar involvement. The lack of high quality evidence may be explained by clinical diversity, variability in assessment tools used and difficulty in grading outcomes with existing measurement tools. Until high level evidence is available, treatment decisions should continue to be based on the clinician's prior experience and the individual circumstances.

Characterisation of Gas Transport Properties of the Opalinus Clay, a Potential Host Rock Formation for Radioactive Waste Disposal

The Opalinus Clay in Northern Switzerland has been identified as a potential host rock formation for the disposal of radioactive waste. Comprehensive understanding of gas transport processes through this low-permeability formation forms a key issue in the assessment of repository performance. Field investigations and laboratory experiments suggest an intrinsic permeability of the Opalinus Clay in the order of 10(-20) to 10(-21) m(2) and a moderate anisotropy ratio < 10. Porosity depends on clay content and burial depth; values of similar to 0.12 are reported for the region of interest. Porosimetry indicates that about 10-30 of voids can be classed as macropores, corresponding to an equivalent pore radius > 25 nm. The determined entry pressures are in the range of 0.4-10 MPa and exhibit a marked dependence on intrinsic permeability. Both in situ gas tests and gas permeameter tests on drillcores demonstrate that gas transport through the rock is accompanied by porewater displacement, suggesting that classical flow concepts of immiscible displacement in porous media can be applied when the gas entry pressure (i.e. capillary threshold pressure) is less than the minimum principal stress acting within the rock. Essentially, the pore space accessible to gas flow is restricted to the network of connected macropores, which implies a very low degree of desaturation of the rock during the gas imbibition process. At elevated gas pressures (i.e. when gas pressure approaches the level of total stress that acts on the rock body), evidence was seen for dilatancy controlled gas transport mechanisms. Further field experiments were aimed at creating extended tensile fractures with high fracture transmissivity (hydro- or gasfracs). The test results lead to the conclusion that gas fracturing can be largely ruled out as a risk for post-closure repository performance.

Agents, Trustees, and International Courts: Nomination and Appointment of Judicial Candidates in the WTO Appellate Body

Scholars have increasingly theorized, and debated, the decision by states to create and delegate authority to international courts, as well as the subsequent autonomy and behavior of those courts, with principal–agent and trusteeship models disagreeing on the nature and extent of states’ influence on international judges. This article formulates and tests a set of principal–agent hypotheses about the ways in which, and the conditions under which, member states are able use their powers of judicial nomination and appointment to influence the endogenous preferences of international judges. The empirical analysis surveys the record of all judicial appointments to the Appellate Body (AB) of the World Trade Organization over a 15-year period. We present a view of an AB appointment process that, far from representing a pure search for expertise, is deeply politicized and offers member-state principals opportunities to influence AB members ex ante and possibly ex post. We further demonstrate that the AB nomination process has become progressively more politicized over time as member states, responding to earlier and controversial AB decisions, became far more concerned about judicial activism and more interested in the substantive opinions of AB candidates, systematically championing candidates whose views on key issues most closely approached their own, and opposing candidates perceived to be activist or biased against their substantive preferences. Although specific to the WTO, our theory and findings have implications for the judicial politics of a large variety of global and regional international courts and tribunals.

EU trade agreements and their impacts on human rights: study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

The European Union’s (EU) trade policy has a strong influence on economic development and the human rights situation in the EU’s partner countries, particularly in developing countries. The present study was commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) as a contribution to further developing appropriate methodologies for assessing human rights risks in development-related policies, an objective set in the BMZ’s 2011 strategy on human rights. The study offers guidance for stakeholders seeking to improve their knowledge of how to assess, both ex ante and ex post, the impact of Economic Partnership Agreements on poverty reduction and the right to food in ACP countries. Currently, human rights impacts are not yet systematically addressed in the trade sustainability impact assessments (trade SIAs) that the European Commission conducts when negotiating trade agreements. Nor do they focus specifically on disadvantaged groups or include other benchmarks relevant to human rights impact assessments (HRIAs). The EU itself has identified a need for action in this regard. In June 2012 it presented an Action Plan on Human Rights and Democracy that calls for the inclusion of human rights in all impact assessments and in this context explicitly refers to trade agreements. Since then, the EU has begun to slightly adapt its SIA methodology and is working to define more adequate human rights–consistent procedures. It is hoped that readers of this study will find inspiration to help contribute to this process and help improve human rights consistency of future trade options.

Diseases in neonatal foals. Part 2: potential risk factors for a higher incidence of infectious diseases during the first 30 days post partum

REASON FOR PERFORMING STUDY: The development of clinical illness in foals is usually predetermined by perinatal history, management or stressful environmental conditions. OBJECTIVES: To determine potential risk factors for an increased incidence of infectious diseases during the first 30 days post partum. METHODS: The population consisted of Thoroughbred foals born on stud farms in the Newmarket (UK) area in 2005 (n = 1031). They were followed for their first 30 days. Factors suspected to influence the incidence of infectious neonatal diseases were examined in a logistic regression approach for each of the 3 outcomes (total infectious diseases, systemic disease with diarrhoea and total infectious diseases excluding diarrhoea). All 28 factors were either foal or mare or stud farm related. RESULTS: Several significant risk factors for a higher disease incidence, such as birth complications, colostrum intake by stomach tube and leucocytosis 12-48 h post partum were identified. The factor 'boarding stud' seemed to be protective against disease. CONCLUSION: Some factors, such as the mare's time at stud before foaling, the mare's rotavirus vaccination schedule and fibrinogen-values that empirically had been linked to the outcome previously were not confirmed as relevant. This included the reported useful prophylactic treatment with antimicrobial drugs. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Factors to be considered when evaluating newborn foals include: stud management, the birth process, route of colostrum intake, white and red blood cells, and the date of birth. These may help to detect foals at risk to develop an infection so that targeted prophylactic measures can be initiated.

Heart rate is a prognostic risk factor for myocardial infarction: a post hoc analysis in the PERFORM (Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic attack) study population

BACKGROUND Elevated resting heart rate is known to be detrimental to morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular disease, though its effect in patients with ischemic stroke is unclear. We analyzed the effect of baseline resting heart rate on myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with a recent noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event participating in PERFORM. METHODS We compared fatal or nonfatal MI using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models for PERFORM patients with baseline heart rate <70 bpm (n=8178) or ≥70 bpm (n=10,802). In addition, heart rate was analyzed as a continuous variable. Other cerebrovascular and cardiovascular outcomes were also explored. RESULTS Heart rate ≥70 bpm was associated with increased relative risk for fatal or nonfatal MI (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.03-1.69, P=0.029). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there was an increase in relative risk for fatal and nonfatal MI (11.3%, P=0.0002). Heart rate ≥70 bpm was also associated with increased relative risk for a composite of fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death) (P<0001); vascular death (P<0001); all-cause mortality (P<0001); and fatal or nonfatal stroke (P=0.04). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there were increases in relative risk for fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (4.7%, P<0.0001), vascular death (11.0%, P<0.0001), all-cause mortality (8.0%, P<0.0001), and fatal and nonfatal stroke (2.4%, P=0.057). CONCLUSION Elevated heart rate ≥70 bpm places patients with a noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event at increased risk for MI.

Preexisting Cerebral Microbleeds on Susceptibility-Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Post-Thrombolysis Bleeding Risk in 392 Patients

Background and Purpose—The question whether cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) visible on MRI in acute stroke increase the risk for intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs) or worse outcome after thrombolysis is unresolved. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of CMB detected with pretreatment susceptibility-weighted MRI on ICH occurrence and outcome. Methods—From 2010 to 2013 we treated 724 patients with intravenous thrombolysis, endovascular therapy, or intravenous thrombolysis followed by endovascular therapy. A total of 392 of the 724 patients were examined with susceptibility-weighted MRI before treatment. CMBs were rated retrospectively. Multivariable regression analysis was used to determine the impact of CMB on ICH and outcome. Results—Of 392 patients, 174 were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, 150 with endovascular therapy, and 68 with intravenous thrombolysis followed by endovascular therapy. CMBs were detected in 79 (20.2%) patients. Symptomatic ICH occurred in 21 (5.4%) and asymptomatic in 75 (19.1%) patients, thereof 61 (15.6%) bleedings within and 35 (8.9%) outside the infarct. Neither the existence of CMB, their burden, predominant location nor their presumed pathogenesis influenced the risk for symptomatic or asymptomatic ICH. A higher CMB burden marginally increased the risk for ICH outside the infarct (P=0.048; odds ratio, 1.004; 95% confidence interval, 1.000–1.008). Conclusions—CMB detected on pretreatment susceptibility-weighted MRI did not increase the risk for ICH or worsen outcome, even when CMB burden, predominant location, or presumed pathogenesis was considered. There was only a small increased risk for ICH outside the infarct with increasing CMB burden that does not advise against thrombolysis in such patients.

Late Infiltration of Post-orthodontic White Spot Lesions

White spot lesion (WSL) infiltration has been recommended immediately after debonding of orthodontic brackets. It is however not clear if established inactive WSLs can also be masked through infiltrationOrthodontic treatment of a 19-year-old patient had to be terminated prematurely due to development of multiple WSLs of varying severity. Three months after debonding, the patient presented for lesion infiltration. After etching with 15% HCl gel and re-wetting of the dried surfaces it seemed that a good outcome could be expected. Lesion infiltration led to complete masking of less severe WSLs. The visual appearance of moderate and severe WSLs was improved but they were still visible after treatment.Inactive WSLs may not represent an increased caries risk, but patients are often bothered esthetically. Infiltration by repeated etching might be a viable approach even for inactive WSLs. Controlled clinical trials are needed to investigate the long-term performance of this technique.

Reduction of inappropriate medications among older nursing-home residents: a nurse-led, pre/post-design, intervention study

Background: Medication-related problems are common in the growing population of older adults and inappropriate prescribing is a preventable risk factor. Explicit criteria such as the Beers criteria provide a valid instrument for describing the rate of inappropriate medication (IM) prescriptions among older adults. Objective: To reduce IM prescriptions based on explicit Beers criteria using a nurse-led intervention in a nursing-home (NH) setting. Study Design: The pre/post-design included IM assessment at study start (pre-intervention), a 4-month intervention period, IM assessment after the intervention period (post-intervention) and a further IM assessment at 1-year follow-up. Setting: 204-bed inpatient NH in Bern, Switzerland. Participants: NH residents aged ≥60 years. Intervention: The intervention included four key intervention elements: (i) adaptation of Beers criteria to the Swiss setting; (ii) IM identification; (iii) IM discontinuation; and (iv) staff training. Main Outcome Measure: IM prescription at study start, after the 4-month intervention period and at 1-year follow-up. Results: The mean±SD resident age was 80.3±8.8 years. Residents were prescribed a mean±SD 7.8±4.0 medications. The prescription rate of IMs decreased from 14.5% pre-intervention to 2.8% post-intervention (relative risk [RR] = 0.2; 95% CI 0.06, 0.5). The risk of IM prescription increased nonstatistically significantly in the 1-year follow-up period compared with post-intervention (RR = 1.6; 95% CI 0.5, 6.1). Conclusions: This intervention to reduce IM prescriptions based on explicit Beers criteria was feasible, easy to implement in an NH setting, and resulted in a substantial decrease in IMs. These results underscore the importance of involving nursing staff in the medication prescription process in a long-term care setting.