The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Study: initial description of the completed database

BACKGROUND: Detecting a benefit from closure of patent foramen ovale in patients with cryptogenic stroke is hampered by low rates of stroke recurrence and uncertainty about the causal role of patent foramen ovale in the index event. A method to predict patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk is needed. However, individual databases generally have too few stroke recurrences to support risk modeling. Prior studies of this population have been limited by low statistical power for examining factors related to recurrence. AIMS: The aim of this study was to develop a database to support modeling of patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk by combining extant data sets. METHODS: We identified investigators with extant databases including subjects with cryptogenic stroke investigated for patent foramen ovale, determined the availability and characteristics of data in each database, collaboratively specified the variables to be included in the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database, harmonized the variables across databases, and collected new primary data when necessary and feasible. RESULTS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database has individual clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic data from 12 component databases, including subjects with cryptogenic stroke both with (n = 1925) and without (n = 1749) patent foramen ovale. In the patent foramen ovale subjects, a total of 381 outcomes (stroke, transient ischemic attack, death) occurred (median follow-up 2·2 years). While there were substantial variations in data collection between studies, there was sufficient overlap to define a common set of variables suitable for risk modeling. CONCLUSION: While individual studies are inadequate for modeling patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk, collaboration between investigators has yielded a database with sufficient power to identify those patients at highest risk for a patent foramen ovale-related stroke recurrence who may have the greatest potential benefit from patent foramen ovale closure.

Modeling the influence of APOC3, APOE, and TNF polymorphisms on the risk of antiretroviral therapy-associated lipid disorders

BACKGROUND: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in genes involved in lipoprotein and adipocyte metabolism may explain why dyslipidemia and lipoatrophy occur in some but not all antiretroviral therapy (ART)-treated individuals. METHODS: We evaluated the contribution of APOC3 -482C-->T, -455T-->C, and 3238C-->G; epsilon 2 and epsilon 4 alleles of APOE; and TNF -238G-->A to dyslipidemia and lipoatrophy by longitudinally modeling >2600 lipid determinations and 2328 lipoatrophy assessments in 329 ART-treated patients during a median follow-up period of 3.4 years. RESULTS: In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals, the effects of variant alleles of APOE on plasma cholesterol and triglyceride levels and of APOC3 on plasma triglyceride levels were comparable to those reported in the general population. However, when treated with ritonavir, individuals with unfavorable genotypes of APOC3 and [corrected] APOE were at risk of extreme hypertriglyceridemia. They had median plasma triglyceride levels of 7.33 mmol/L, compared with 3.08 mmol/L in the absence of ART. The net effect of the APOE*APOC3*ritonavir interaction was an increase in plasma triglyceride levels of 2.23 mmol/L. No association between TNF -238G-->A and lipoatrophy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Variant alleles of APOE and APOC3 contribute to an unfavorable lipid profile in patients with HIV. Interactions between genotypes and ART can lead to severe hyperlipidemia. Genetic analysis may identify patients at high risk for severe ritonavir-associated hypertriglyceridemia.

Periodontitis: a future risk of acute coronary syndrome? A follow-up study over 3 years

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis has been associated with cardiovascular disease. We assess if the recurrence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) could be predicted by preceding medical and periodontal conditions. METHODS: A total of 165 consecutive subjects with ACS and 159 medically healthy, matched control subjects were examined and followed for 3 years. Periodontitis was defined by alveolar bone loss. Subgingival microbial samples were studied by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. RESULTS: The recurrence of ACS was found in 66 of 165 (40.0%) subjects, and a first ACS event was found in seven of 159 (4.4%) subjects among baseline control subjects. Subjects who later had a second ACS event were older (P <0.001). Significantly higher serum levels of high-density lipoprotein (P <0.05), creatinine (P <0.01), and white blood cell (WBC) counts (P <0.001) were found in subjects with future ACS. Periodontitis was associated with a first event of ACS (crude odds ratio [OR]: 10.3:1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.1 to 17.4; P <0.001) and the recurrence of ACS (crude OR: 3.6:1; 95% CI: 2.0 to 6.6; P <0.001). General linear modeling multivariate analysis, controlling for age and the prediction of a future ACS event, identified that WBC counts (F = 20.6; P <0.001), periodontitis (F = 17.6; P <0.001), and serum creatinine counts (F = 4.5; P <0.05) were explanatory of a future ACS event. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that recurrent ACS events are predicted by serum WBC counts, serum creatinine levels, and a diagnosis of periodontitis. Significantly higher counts of putative pathogens are found in subjects with ACS, but these counts do not predict future ACS events.

Block of the hERG channel by bupivacaine: Electrophysiological and modeling insights towards stereochemical optimization

The hERG voltage-gated potassium channel mediates the cardiac I(Kr) current, which is crucial for the duration of the cardiac action potential. Undesired block of the channel by certain drugs may prolong the QT interval and increase the risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias. Although the molecular determinants of hERG block have been intensively studied, not much is known about its stereoselectivity. Levo-(S)-bupivacaine was the first drug reported to have a higher affinity to block hERG than its enantiomer. This study strives to understand the principles underlying the stereoselectivity of bupivacaine block with the help of mutagenesis analyses and molecular modeling simulations. Electrophysiological measurements of mutated hERG channels allowed for the identification of residues involved in bupivacaine binding and stereoselectivity. Docking and molecular mechanics simulations for both enantiomers of bupivacaine and terfenadine (a non-stereoselective blocker) were performed inside an open-state model of the hERG channel. The predicted binding modes enabled a clear depiction of ligand-protein interactions. Estimated binding affinities for both enantiomers were consistent with electrophysiological measurements. A similar computational procedure was applied to bupivacaine enantiomers towards two mutated hERG channels (Tyr652Ala and Phe656Ala). This study confirmed, at the molecular level, that bupivacaine stereoselectively binds the hERG channel. These results help to lay the foundation for structural guidelines to optimize the cardiotoxic profile of drug candidates in silico.

Statistical modeling of the eye for multimodal treatment planning for external beam radiation therapy of intraocular tumors

Ocular anatomy and radiation-associated toxicities provide unique challenges for external beam radiation therapy. For treatment planning, precise modeling of organs at risk and tumor volume are crucial. Development of a precise eye model and automatic adaptation of this model to patients' anatomy remain problematic because of organ shape variability. This work introduces the application of a 3-dimensional (3D) statistical shape model as a novel method for precise eye modeling for external beam radiation therapy of intraocular tumors.

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

Investigating the role of free-ranging wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the re-emergence of enzootic pneumonia in domestic pig herds: a pathological, prevalence and risk-factor study

Enzootic pneumonia (EP) caused by Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae has a significant economic impact on domestic pig production. A control program carried out from 1999 to 2003 successfully reduced disease occurrence in domestic pigs in Switzerland, but recurrent outbreaks suggested a potential role of free-ranging wild boar (Sus scrofa) as a source of re-infection. Since little is known on the epidemiology of EP in wild boar populations, our aims were: (1) to estimate the prevalence of M. hyopneumoniae infections in wild boar in Switzerland; (2) to identify risk factors for infection in wild boar; and (3) to assess whether infection in wild boar is associated with the same gross and microscopic lesions typical of EP in domestic pigs. Nasal swabs, bronchial swabs and lung samples were collected from 978 wild boar from five study areas in Switzerland between October 2011 and May 2013. Swabs were analyzed by qualitative real time PCR and a histopathological study was conducted on lung tissues. Risk factor analysis was performed using multivariable logistic regression modeling. Overall prevalence in nasal swabs was 26.2% (95% CI 23.3-29.3%) but significant geographical differences were observed. Wild boar density, occurrence of EP outbreaks in domestic pigs and young age were identified as risk factors for infection. There was a significant association between infection and lesions consistent with EP in domestic pigs. We have concluded that M. hyopneumoniae is widespread in the Swiss wild boar population, that the same risk factors for infection of domestic pigs also act as risk factors for infection of wild boar, and that infected wild boar develop lesions similar to those found in domestic pigs. However, based on our data and the outbreak pattern in domestic pigs, we propose that spillover from domestic pigs to wild boar is more likely than transmission from wild boar to pigs.