Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required

EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion ‘cognitive disturbances’ (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow-up, conversion rates of COGDIS were significantly higher thereafter. Differences in onset and frequency requirements of symptomatic UHR criteria or in their different consideration of functional decline, substance use and co-morbidity did not seem to impact on conversion rates. The ‘genetic risk and functional decline’ UHR criterion was rarely met and only showed an insignificant pooled sample effect. However, age significantly affected UHR conversion rates with lower rates in children and adolescents. Although more research into potential sources of heterogeneity in conversion rates is needed to facilitate improvement of CHR criteria, six evidence-based recommendations for an early detection of psychosis were developed as a basis for the EPA guidance on early intervention in CHR states.

A Specific Mapping Study Using Fluorescence Sentinel Lymph Node Detection in Patients with Intermediate- and High-risk Prostate Cancer Undergoing Extended Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection.

Sentinel lymph node (SLN) detection techniques have the potential to change the standard of surgical care for patients with prostate cancer. We performed a lymphatic mapping study and determined the value of fluorescence SLN detection with indocyanine green (ICG) for the detection of lymph node metastases in intermediate- and high-risk patients undergoing radical prostatectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection. A total of 42 patients received systematic or specific ICG injections into the prostate base, the midportion, the apex, the left lobe, or the right lobe. We found (1) that external and internal iliac regions encompass the majority of SLNs, (2) that common iliac regions contain up to 22% of all SLNs, (3) that a prostatic lobe can drain into the contralateral group of pelvic lymph nodes, and (4) that the fossa of Marcille also receives significant drainage. Among the 12 patients who received systematic ICG injections, 5 (42%) had a total of 29 lymph node metastases. Of these, 16 nodes were ICG positive, yielding 55% sensitivity. The complex drainage pattern of the prostate and the low sensitivity of ICG for the detection of lymph node metastases reported in our study highlight the difficulties related to the implementation of SNL techniques in prostate cancer. PATIENT SUMMARY There is controversy about how extensive lymph node dissection (LND) should be during prostatectomy. We investigated the lymphatic drainage of the prostate and whether sentinel node fluorescence techniques would be useful to detect node metastases. We found that the drainage pattern is complex and that the sentinel node technique is not able to replace extended pelvic LND.

Basic symptoms and ultrahigh risk criteria: symptom development in the initial prodromal state

Symptom development during the prodromal phase of psychosis was explored retrospectively in first-episode psychosis patients with special emphasis on the assumed time-related syndromic sequence of "unspecific symptoms (UN)-predictive basic symptoms (BS)-attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS)-(transient) psychotic symptoms (PS)." Onset of syndromes was defined by first occurrence of any of their respective symptoms. Group means were inspected for time differences between syndromes and influence of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics on the recalled sequence. The sequence of "UN-BS/APS-PS" was clearly supported, and both BS and, though slightly less, APS were highly sensitive. However, onset of BS and APS did not show significant time difference in the whole sample (N = 126; 90% schizophrenia), although when each symptom is considered independently, APS tended to occur later than first predictive BS. On descriptive level, about one-third each recalled an earlier, equal and later onset of BS compared with APS. Level of education showed the greatest impact on the recall of the hypothesized sequence. Thereby, those with a higher school-leaving certificate supported the assumed sequence, whereas those of low educational background retrospectively dated APS before BS. These findings rather point out recognition and recall bias inherent to the retrospective design than true group characteristics. Future long-term prospective studies will have to explore this conclusively. However, as regards the criteria, the results support the notion of BS as at least a complementary approach to the ultrahigh risk criteria, which may also allow for an earlier detection of psychosis.

The near babylonian speech confusion in early detection of psychosis

It is barely 15 years since, in 1996, the issue theme of Schizophrenia Bulletin (Vol 22, 2) “Early Detection, and Intervention in Schizophrenia” signified the commencement of this field of research. Since that time the field of early detection research has developed rapidly and it may be translated into clinical practice by the introduction of an Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, (DSM-5) (www.dsm5.org/ProposedRevisions/Pages/proposedrevision.aspx?rid=412#). Attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) had first been suggested as a clinical predictor of first-episode psychosis by the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) Clinic group as part of the ultrahigh risk (UHR) criteria.1 The term ultrahigh risk became broadly accepted for this set of criteria for imminent risk of developing psychosis in the late 1990s. The use of the term “prodrome” for a state characterized by at-risk (AR) criteria was criticized as a retrospective concept inevitably followed by the full-blown disorder.1 Although alternative terms have been suggested, prodrome is still used in prospective studies (eg, prodromally symptomatic, potentially or putatively prodromal, prodrome-like state/symptoms). Some alternative suggestions such as prepsychotic state/symptoms, subthreshold psychotic symptoms, early psychosis, subsyndromal psychosis, hypopsychosis, or subpsychosis were short-lived. Other terms still in use include UHR, at-risk mental state (ARMS), AR, high risk, clinical high risk (CHR), or early and late AR state. Further, the term psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) has recently (re-)entered early detection research. …

The significance of at-risk symptoms for psychosis in children and adolescents

The early detection and treatment of people at risk for psychosis is currently regarded as a promising strategy in fighting the devastating consequences of psychotic disorders. Currently, the 2 most broadly used sets of at-risk criteria, that is, ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom criteria, were developed mainly in adult samples. We review the data regarding the presence and relevance of at-risk symptoms for psychosis in children and adolescents. The few existing studies suggest that attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) do have some clinical relevance in young adolescents from the general population. Nevertheless, their differentiation from atypical psychotic symptoms or an emerging schizotypal personality disorder, as well as their stability and predictive accuracy for psychosis, are still unclear. Further, standard interviews for UHR criteria do not define a minimum age for the assessment of APS and BLIPS or guidelines as to when and how to include information from parents. APS and basic symptoms may be predictive of conversion to psychosis in help-seeking young adolescents. Nevertheless, the rate and timing, and thus the required observation time, need further study. Moreover, no study has yet addressed the issue of how to treat children and adolescents presenting with at-risk symptoms and criteria. Further research is urgently needed to examine if current at-risk criteria and approaches have to be tailored to the special needs of children and adolescents. A preliminary rationale for how to deal with at-risk symptoms for psychosis in clinical practice is provided.

Challenges in the early detection of psychosis in children and adolescents

The early detection and treatment of persons at-risk for psychosis is currently regarded a promising strategy in fighting the devastating consequences of psychotic disorders. The two current at-risk approaches, i.e., the "ultra high risk" and the "basic symptom" criteria, were mainly developed on adult samples. Initial evidence suggests, however, that they cannot simply be applied to children and adolescents. For ultra high risk criteria, there is indication of some attenuated psychotic symptoms being potentially non-specific in adolescents and of brief limited intermittent symptoms being difficult to clinically classify in children when observable behavioral correlates are missing. For basic symptoms, too, only preliminary indication of their usefulness in children and adolescents exists. Since developmental peculiarities in the assessment of basic symptoms should be considered, a child and youth version of the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-CY) was developed. In conclusion, research on the clinical-prognostic validity of the at-risk criteria and their potential adoption to the special needs of children and adolescents is needed. If a Prodromal Risk Syndrome for Psychosis or Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms Syndrome will be included into DSM-V, it has to be highlighted that its suitability for children and adolescents is only insufficiently known.

Rationale and first results of developing at-risk (prodromal) criteria for bipolar disorder

Bipolar affective disorder (BD) is a severe, recurrent and disabling disorder with devastating consequences for individuals, families and society. Although these hazards and costs provide a compelling rationale for development of early detection and early intervention strategies in BD, the development of at-risk criteria for first episode mania is still in an early stage of development. In this paper we review the literature with respect to the clinical, neuroantomical and neuropsychological data, which support this goal. We also describe our recently developed bipolar at-risk criteria (BAR). This criteria comprises the peak age range of the first onset of bipolar disorder, genetic risk, presenting with sub-threshold mania, cyclothymic features or depressive symptoms. An initial pilot evaluation of the BAR criteria in 22 subjects indicated conversion rates to proxies of first-episode mania of 23% within 265 days on average, and high specificity and sensitivity of the criteria. If prospective studies confirm the validity of the BAR criteria, then the criteria would have the potential to open up new avenues of research for indicated prevention in BD and might therefore offer opportunities to ameliorate the severity of, or even prevent BD.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.

Detection of prion protein gene polymorphisms in Baltic breeds of sheep

A total of 167 sheep belonging to the Estonian whiteheaded mutton, Estonian blackheaded mutton, Lithuanian coarsewool native, Lithuanian blackface and Latvian darkheaded mutton breeds, and a population of sheep kept isolated on the Estonian island of Ruhnu, were sequence-analysed for polymorphisms in the prion protein (PrP) gene, to determine their genotype and the allele frequencies of polymorphisms in PrP known to confer resistance to scrapie. A 939 base pair fragment of exon 3 from the PrP gene was amplified by pcr and analysed by direct sequencing. For animals showing polymorphism at two nucleotide positions, both haplotypes of these double-heterozygous genotypes were further verified by pcr cloning and sequence analysis. Known polymorphisms were observed at codons 136, 154 and 171, and six different haplotypes (arr, ahq, arh, ahr, arq and vrq) were determined. On the basis of these polymorphisms, the six populations of sheep possessed the resistant arr haplotype at different frequencies. The high-risk arq haplotype occurred in high frequencies in all six populations, but vrq, the haplotype carrying the highest risk, occurred at low frequencies and in only three of the populations.

A modified calculation of ankle-brachial pressure index is far more sensitive in the detection of peripheral arterial disease

BACKGROUND: Ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI) is a simple, inexpensive, and useful tool in the detection of peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD). The current guidelines published by the American Heart Association define ABI as the quotient of the higher of the systolic blood pressures (SBPs) of the two ankle arteries of that limb (either the anterior tibial artery or the posterior tibial artery) and the higher of the two brachial SBPs of the upper limbs. We hypothesized that considering the lower of the two ankle arterial SBPs of a side as the numerator and the higher of the brachial SBPs as the denominator would increase its diagnostic yield. METHODS: The former method of eliciting ABI was termed as high ankle pressure (HAP) and the latter low ankle pressure (LAP). ABI was assessed in 216 subjects and calculated according to the HAP and the LAP method. ABI findings were confirmed by arterial duplex ultrasonography. A significant arterial stenosis was assumed if ABI was <0.9. RESULTS: LAP had a sensitivity of 0.89 and a specificity of 0.93. The HAP method had a sensitivity of 0.68 and a specificity of 0.99. McNemar's test to compare the results of both methods demonstrated a two-tailed P < .0001, indicating a highly significant difference between both measurement methods. CONCLUSIONS: LAP is the superior method of calculating ABI to identify PAD. This result is of great interest for epidemiologic studies applying ABI measurements to detect PAD and assessing patients' cardiovascular risk.

Prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected patients over time: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic changes caused by antiretroviral therapy (ART) may increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We evaluated changes in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and 10-year risk of CHD in a large cohort of HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: All individuals from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) who completed at least one CVRF questionnaire and for whom laboratory data were available for the period February 2000 to February 2006 were included in the analysis. The presence of a risk factor was determined using cut-offs based on the guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP ATP III), the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC7), the American Diabetes Association, and the Swiss Society for Cardiology. RESULTS: Overall, 8,033 individuals completed at least one CVRF questionnaire. The most common CVRFs in the first completed questionnaire were smoking (57.0%), low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (37.2%), high triglycerides (35.7%), and high blood pressure (26.1%). In total, 2.7 and 13.8% of patients were categorized as being at high (>20%) and moderate (10-20%) 10-year risk for CHD, respectively. Over 6 years the percentage of smokers decreased from 61.4 to 47.6% and the percentage of individuals with total cholesterol >6.2 mmol/L decreased from 21.1 to 12.3%. The prevalence of CVRFs and CHD risk was higher in patients currently on ART than in either pretreated or ART-naive patients. CONCLUSION: During the 6-year observation period, the prevalence of CVRFs remains high in the SHCS. Time trends indicate a decrease in the percentage of smokers and individuals with high cholesterol.

Duration of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage, according to risk factors for acquisition

OBJECTIVE: To examine the duration of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage and its determinants and the influence of eradication regimens. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A 1,033-bed tertiary care university hospital in Bern, Switzerland, in which the prevalence of methicillin resistance among S. aureus isolates is less than 5%. PATIENTS: A total of 116 patients with first-time MRSA detection identified at University Hospital Bern between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2003, were followed up for a mean duration of 16.2 months. RESULTS: Sixty-eight patients (58.6%) cleared colonization, with a median time to clearance of 7.4 months. Independent determinants for shorter carriage duration were the absence of any modifiable risk factor (receipt of antibiotics, use of an indwelling device, or presence of a skin lesion) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.20 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.09-0.42]), absence of immunosuppressive therapy (HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.23-1.02]), and hemodialysis (HR, 0.08 [95% CI, 0.01-0.66]) at the time MRSA was first MRSA detected and the administration of decolonization regimen in the absence of a modifiable risk factor (HR, 2.22 [95% CI, 1.36-3.64]). Failure of decolonization treatment was associated with the presence of risk factors at the time of treatment (P=.01). Intermittent screenings that were negative for MRSA were frequent (26% of patients), occurred early after first detection of MRSA (median, 31.5 days), and were associated with a lower probability of clearing colonization (HR, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.17-0.67]) and an increased risk of MRSA infection during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for MRSA acquisition should be carefully assessed in all MRSA carriers and should be included in infection control policies, such as the timing of decolonization treatment, the definition of MRSA clearance, and the decision of when to suspend isolation measures.

[Precancerous and high risk lesions of the oral mucosa--Diagnosis, therapy and follow-up in two cases]

Stomatologic lesions at risk to develop an oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) such as oral leukoplakia, erythroplakia/erythroleukoplakia, or oral lichen planus, need an early detection, diagnosis and a long-term/lifelong follow-up to prevent malignant transformation. In the following report, two patients are presented with oral mucosal lesions, who were referred, diagnosed, treated, and underwent follow-up examinations at the Stomatology Service of the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology at the University of Bern. These two cases emphasize the importance of early detection and managment of precancerous lesions or initial stages of OSCC. Additionally, risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol consumption and their influence on stomatologic lesions and their prognosis, will be discussed.