Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

Ranking Software Artifacts

Reengineering and integrated development plat- forms typically do not list search results in a particularly useful order. PageRank is the algorithm prominently used by the Google internet search engine to rank the relative importance of elements in a set of hyperlinked documents. To determine the relevance of objects, classes, attributes, and methods we propose to apply PageRank to software artifacts and their relationship (reference, inheritance, access, and invocation). This paper presents various experiments that demonstrate the usefulness of the ranking algorithm in software (re)engineering.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elderly patients with pulmonary embolism

Background: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), and its simplified version (sPESI) are well known clinical prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE).Objectives: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with PE. Patients/Methods: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥65 years with symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low- vs. higher-risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤2 vs. >2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V, and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P<0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared to 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95%CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P=0.47). Conclusions: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism

The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE.

Ranking of parameters of pain hypersensitivity according to their discriminative ability in chronic low back pain

Low back pain is associated with plasticity changes and central hypersensitivity in a subset of patients. We performed a case-control study to explore the discriminative ability of different quantitative sensory tests in distinguishing between 40 cases with chronic low back pain and 300 pain-free controls, and to rank these tests according to the extent of their association with chronic pain. Gender, age, height, weight, body mass index, and psychological measures were recorded as potential confounders. We used 26 quantitative sensory tests, including different modalities of pressure, heat, cold, and electrical stimulation. As measures of discrimination, we estimated receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and likelihood ratios. Six tests seemed useful (in order of their discriminative ability): (1) pressure pain detection threshold at the site of most severe pain (fitted area under the ROC, 0.87), (2) single electrical stimulation pain detection threshold (0.87), (3) single electrical stimulation reflex threshold (0.83), (4) pressure pain tolerance threshold at the site of most severe pain (0.81), (5) pressure pain detection threshold at suprascapular region (0.80), and (6) temporal summation pain threshold (0.80). Pressure and electrical pain modalities seemed most promising and may be used for diagnosis of pain hypersensitivity and potentially for identifying individuals at risk of developing chronic low back pain over time.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study

Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy.

Changes in PESI scores predict mortality in intermediate-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) accurately identifies 35% of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) as being low risk, some patients deemed high risk by the PESI on admission might be treated safely in the outpatient environment. This retrospective cohort study included a total of 304 consecutive patients with acute PE, classified at the time of hospital admission into PESI class III. The PESI was recalculated 48 h after admission (PESI(48)) and each patient reclassified into the corresponding risk category. The primary outcome of the study was all-cause mortality between day 2 and day 30 after PE diagnosis. 26 (8.5%) patients (95% CI 5.4-11.7%) died between day 2 and day 30 after PE diagnosis. Investigators reclassified 83 (27.3%) patients (95% CI 22.3-32.3%) as low risk (classes I and II) at 48 h. 30-day mortality in these patients was 1.2% (95% CI 0-3.5%) as opposed to 11.3% (95% CI 7.1-15.5%) in those who remained high risk. The net improvement in reclassification was estimated at 54% (p<0.001). In a cohort of intermediate-risk patients with acute PE, calculation of the PESI(48) allows identification of those patients at very low risk of dying during the first month of follow-up.

Routine procedures in NICUs: factors influencing pain assessment and ranking by pain intensity

BACKGROUND: Pain associated with routine procedures in NICUs is often inadequately managed. Barriers to more appropriate pain management are nurses' and physicians' knowledge and the challenges of collaborative decision-making. Few studies describe the differing perceptions of procedural pain intensity among nurses and physicians in NICUs which could complicate common decision-making. This study set out to explore the factors influencing pain intensity assessment and to gain insight into a possible pain intensity classification of routine procedures in the NICU. METHOD: A survey was conducted among 431 neonatal health care professionals from 4 tertiary level NICUs. Each routine procedure was assessed on a 10-point visual analogue scale (VAS) assuming absence of analgesia. RESULTS: Multiple ANCOVA models showed that nurses rated 19 of the 27 procedures as significantly more painful than did physicians (p<0.05). We found no differences in pain assessment based on professional experience, gender or age. Of the 27 procedures listed, 70% were rated as painful and 44% were judged very painful. Ranking and classification of the pain intensity of routine procedures were drawn up. The general ranking of the median across all procedures shows that "insertion of a thoracic drain" is assessed as the most painful procedure. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of routine procedures in an NICU are considered to be painful. Nurses generally rate procedures as more painful than do physicians. This difference in assessment deserves exploration in regard to its impact on collaborative decision-making in neonate pain management.