Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

Reporting Experiments in Homeopathic Basic Research—Description of the Checklist Development

The objective of this study was to develop a criteria catalogue serving as a guideline for authors to improve quality of reporting experiments in basic research in homeopathy. A Delphi Process was initiated including three rounds of adjusting and phrasing plus two consensus conferences. European researchers who published experimental work within the last 5 years were involved. A checklist for authors provide a catalogue with 23 criteria. The “Introduction” should focus on underlying hypotheses, the homeopathic principle investigated and state if experiments are exploratory or confirmatory. “Materials and methods” should comprise information on object of investigation, experimental setup, parameters, intervention and statistical methods. A more detailed description on the homeopathic substances, for example, manufacture, dilution method, starting point of dilution is required. A further result of the Delphi process is to raise scientists' awareness of reporting blinding, allocation, replication, quality control and system performance controls. The part “Results” should provide the exact number of treated units per setting which were included in each analysis and state missing samples and drop outs. Results presented in tables and figures are as important as appropriate measures of effect size, uncertainty and probability. “Discussion” in a report should depict more than a general interpretation of results in the context of current evidence but also limitations and an appraisal of aptitude for the chosen experimental model. Authors of homeopathic basic research publications are encouraged to apply our checklist when preparing their manuscripts. Feedback is encouraged on applicability, strength and limitations of the list to enable future revisions.

High-throughput procedure for tick surveys of tick-borne encephalitis virus and its application in a national surveillance study in Switzerland

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a viral infection of the central nervous system, is endemic in many Eurasian countries. In Switzerland, TBE risk areas have been characterized by geographic mapping of clinical cases. Since mass vaccination should significantly decrease the number of TBE cases, alternative methods for exposure risk assessment are required. We established a new PCR-based test for the detection of TBE virus (TBEV) in ticks. The protocol involves an automated, high-throughput nucleic acid extraction method (QIAsymphony SP system) and a one-step duplex real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) assay for the detection of European subtype TBEV, including an internal process control. High usability, reproducibility, and equivalent performance for virus concentrations down to 5 x 10(3) viral genome equivalents/microl favor the automated protocol compared to the modified guanidinium thiocyanate-phenol-chloroform extraction procedure. The real-time RT-PCR allows fast, sensitive (limit of detection, 10 RNA copies/microl), and specific (no false-positive test results for other TBEV subtypes, other flaviviruses, or other tick-transmitted pathogens) detection of European subtype TBEV. The new detection method was applied in a national surveillance study, in which 62,343 Ixodes ricinus ticks were screened for the presence of TBE virus. A total of 38 foci of endemicity could be identified, with a mean virus prevalence of 0.46%. The foci do not fully agree with those defined by disease mapping. Therefore, the proposed molecular test procedure constitutes a prerequisite for an appropriate TBE surveillance. Our data are a unique complement of human TBE disease case mapping in Switzerland.

No surgical innovation without evaluation: the IDEAL recommendations

Surgery and other invasive therapies are complex interventions, the assessment of which is challenged by factors that depend on operator, team, and setting, such as learning curves, quality variations, and perception of equipoise. We propose recommendations for the assessment of surgery based on a five-stage description of the surgical development process. We also encourage the widespread use of prospective databases and registries. Reports of new techniques should be registered as a professional duty, anonymously if necessary when outcomes are adverse. Case series studies should be replaced by prospective development studies for early technical modifications and by prospective research databases for later pre-trial evaluation. Protocols for these studies should be registered publicly. Statistical process control techniques can be useful in both early and late assessment. Randomised trials should be used whenever possible to investigate efficacy, but adequate pre-trial data are essential to allow power calculations, clarify the definition and indications of the intervention, and develop quality measures. Difficulties in doing randomised clinical trials should be addressed by measures to evaluate learning curves and alleviate equipoise problems. Alternative prospective designs, such as interrupted time series studies, should be used when randomised trials are not feasible. Established procedures should be monitored with prospective databases to analyse outcome variations and to identify late and rare events. Achievement of improved design, conduct, and reporting of surgical research will need concerted action by editors, funders of health care and research, regulatory bodies, and professional societies.

How nice is good for patients and for therapy outcome? The role of confrontation in the process of psychotherapy

It is well established that the therapeutic relationship contributes about as much to therapy outcome as 'technical' intervention. Furthermore, it follows clear prescriptive concepts in the same manner as technical interventions do. 'Motive Oriented Therapeutic Relationship' is such a concept for establishing a solid basis for whatever therapeutic work the patients' problems require (Grawe, 1980, 1992; Caspar, 1996). Yet, the therapeutic relationship doesn't explain everything because other factors play a significant role too. Previous studies showed that outcome is clearly better when therapists achieved a generally high quality of a therapeutic relationship when they did not shy away from possibly threatening interventions such as confrontations. This ratio of a fruitful alliance and marginally present confrontations in the same session also showed significant correlations with patient's assessment of alliance and progress in therapy (Figlioli et al., 2009).Aim: The current state of research in the field does not give any answers to questions like how good and bad confrontations can be characterized or what role does the intensity, respectively frequency of confrontations play in the process of psychotherapy. Methods: A sample of 80 therapies of 3 sessions each representing either good or bad outcome was judged moment by moment by independent raters if and how therapists used confrontative interventions. Results: Preliminary analyses show that successful confrontations are explicitly uttered, short but intense, related to important patients goals in therapy and embedded in prior complementarity. Discussion: The results will be discussed in terms of their implications for the clinical daily work.

How nice is good for patients and for therapy outcome? The role of confrontation in the process of psychotherapy

It is well established that the therapeutic relationship contributes about as much to therapy outcome as ‘technical’ intervention. Furthermore, it follows clear prescriptive concepts in the same manner as technical interventions do. ‘Motive Oriented Therapeutic Relationship’ is such a concept for establishing a solid basis for whatever therapeutic work the patients’ problems require (Grawe, 1980, 1992; Caspar, 1996). Yet, the therapeutic relationship doesn’t explain everything because other factors play a significant role too. Previous studies showed that outcome is clearly better when therapists achieved a generally high quality of a therapeutic relationship when they did not shy away from possibly threatening interventions such as confrontations. This ratio of a fruitful alliance and marginally present confrontations in the same session also showed significant correlations with patient’s assessment of alliance and progress in therapy (Figlioli et al., 2009). These findings are also very much in line with Sachse’s metaphor of accumulating, but then also using ‘relationship credits’ and Farrelly’s ‘Provocative Therapy’ (1986), as well as the ‘Intensive Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy’ by Davanloo (1980).Aim: The current state of research in the field does not give any answers to questions like how good and bad confrontations can be characterized or what role does the intensity, respectively frequency of confrontations play in the process of psychotherapy.Methods: A sample of 80 therapies of 3 sessions each representing either good or bad outcome was judged moment by moment by independent raters if and how therapists used confrontative interventions. Results / Discussion: The results will be discussed in terms of their implications for the clinical daily work. Preliminary analyses show that successful confrontations are explicitly uttered, short but intense, related to important patients goals in therapy and embedded in prior complementarity.

Urinary leukotriene E4 concentrations as a potential marker of inflammation in dogs with inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and food-responsive diarrhea (FRD) are chronic enteropathies of dogs (CCE) that currently can only be differentiated by their response to treatment after exclusion of other diseases. In humans, increased urinary concentrations of leukotriene E4 (LTE4) have been associated with active IBD. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate urinary LTE4 concentrations in dogs with IBD, FRD, and healthy controls, and to assess correlation of urinary LTE4 concentrations with the canine IBD activity index (CIBDAI) scores. ANIMALS: Eighteen dogs with IBD, 19 dogs with FRD, and 23 healthy control dogs. METHODS: In this prospective study, urine was collected and CIBDAI scores were calculated in client-owned dogs with IBD and those with FRD. Quantification of LTE4 in urine was performed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and corrected to creatinine. RESULTS: Urinary LTE4 concentrations were highest in dogs with IBD (median 85.2 pg/mg creatinine [10th-90th percentiles 10.9-372.6]) followed by those with FRD (median 31.2 pg/mg creatinine [10th-90th percentiles 6.2-114.5]) and control dogs (median 21.1 pg/mg creatinine [10th-90th percentiles 9.1-86.5]). Urinary LTE4 concentrations were higher in dogs with IBD than in control dogs (P = .011), but no significant difference between IBD and FRD was found. No correlation was found between urinary LTE4 concentrations and CIBDAI. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: The higher urinary LTE4 concentrations in dogs with IBD suggest that cysteinyl leukotriene pathway activation might be a component of the inflammatory process in canine IBD. Furthermore, urinary LTE4 concentrations are of potential use as a marker of inflammation in dogs with CCE.

Genital chlamydia prevalence in Europe and in non-European high income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Accurate information about the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis is needed to assess national prevention and control measures. Methods: We systematically reviewed population-based cross-sectional studies that estimated chlamydia prevalence in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and non-European high income countries from January 1990 to August 2012. We examined results in forest plots, explored heterogeneity using the I2 statistic, and conducted random effects meta-analysis if appropriate. Metaregression was used to examine the relationship between study characteristics and chlamydia prevalence estimates. Results: We included 25 population-based studies from 11 EU/EEA countries and 14 studies from five other high income countries. Four EU/EEA Member States reported on nationally representative surveys of sexually experienced adults aged 18-26 years (response rates 52-71%). In women, chlamydia point prevalence estimates ranged from 3.0-5.3%; the pooled average of these estimates was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4, 4.8, I2 0%). In men, estimates ranged from 2.4-7.3% (pooled average 3.5%; 95% CI 1.9, 5.2, I2 27%). Estimates in EU/EEA Member States were statistically consistent with those in other high income countries (I2 0% for women, 6% for men). There was statistical evidence of an association between survey response rate and estimated chlamydia prevalence; estimates were higher in surveys with lower response rates, (p=0.003 in women, 0.018 in men). Conclusions: Population-based surveys that estimate chlamydia prevalence are at risk of participation bias owing to low response rates. Estimates obtained in nationally representative samples of the general population of EU/EEA Member States are similar to estimates from other high income countries.