A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

A logarithmic efficient estimator of the probability of ruin with recuperation for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

FRAX® assessment of osteoporotic fracture probability in Switzerland

A Swiss-specific FRAX model was developed. Patient profiles at increased probability of fracture beyond currently accepted reimbursement thresholds for bone mineral density (BMD) measurement by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and osteoporosis treatment were identified.

Two to twenty-year survivorship of the hip in 810 patients with operatively treated acetabular fractures

The aims of the study were (1) to determine the cumulative two to twenty-year survivorship of the hip after open reduction and internal fixation of displaced acetabular fractures, (2) to identify factors predicting conversion to total hip arthroplasty or hip arthrodesis, and (3) to create a predictive model that calculates an individual's probability of early need for total hip arthroplasty or hip arthrodesis.

Dynamic repair of scapholunate dissociation with dorsal extensor carpi radialis longus tenodesis

This study investigates the results of a technique using an extensor carpi radialis longus (ECRL) tenodesis for symptomatic scapholunate instability. Symptomatic scapholunate instability has been corrected so far either by limited wrist fusion or by various techniques of soft tissue repair. Limited wrist fusion greatly reduces wrist motion and increases the probability of osteoarthritis in the remaining mobile wrist segments. On the other hand, most types of soft tissue repair are technically difficult to perform and have disappointing results due to the inherent laxity. The presented dynamic approach was used in 20 wrists of 19 patients with static scapholunate instability. Preoperative evaluation included in all patients clinical examination, radiologic evaluation, and arthroscopy for establishing the diagnosis of static scapholunate instability. The technique involves the fixation of the ECRL tendon on the dorsal aspect of the scaphoid by means of a cancellous screw and a special washer. Dynamic ECRL tenodesis of the scaphoid is a safe and simple procedure that enhances the extension forces on the scaphoid in all wrist positions. The results of this preliminary report in 20 wrists showed dynamic ECRL tenodesis to be an effective treatment option for treating symptomatic static scapholunate instability.

Comparison of theoretical fixation stability of three devices employed in medial opening wedge high tibial osteotomy: a finite element analysis.

BACKGROUND Medial open wedge high tibial osteotomy is a well-established procedure for the treatment of unicompartmental osteoarthritis and symptomatic varus malalignment. We hypothesized that different fixation devices generate different fixation stability profiles for the various wedge sizes in a finite element (FE) analysis. METHODS Four types of fixation were compared: 1) first and 2) second generation Puddu plates, and 3) TomoFix plate with and 4) without bone graft. Cortical and cancellous bone was modelled and five different opening wedge sizes were studied for each model. Outcome measures included: 1) stresses in bone, 2) relative displacement of the proximal and distal tibial fragments, 3) stresses in the plates, 4) stresses on the upper and lower screw surfaces in the screw channels. RESULTS The highest load for all fixation types occurred in the plate axis. For the vast majority of the wedge sizes and fixation types the shear stress (von Mises stress) was dominating in the bone independent of fixation type. The relative displacements of the tibial fragments were low (in μm range). With an increasing wedge size this displacement tended to increase for both Puddu plates and the TomoFix plate with bone graft. For the TomoFix plate without bone graft a rather opposite trend was observed.For all fixation types the occurring stresses at the screw-bone contact areas pulled at the screws and exceeded the allowable threshold of 1.2 MPa for at least one screw surface. Of the six screw surfaces that were studied, the TomoFix plate with bone graft showed a stress excess of one out of twelve and without bone graft, five out of twelve. With the Puddu plates, an excess stress occurred in the majority of screw surfaces. CONCLUSIONS The different fixation devices generate different fixation stability profiles for different opening wedge sizes. Based on the computational simulations, none of the studied osteosynthesis fixation types warranted an intransigent full weight bearing per se. The highest fixation stability was observed for the TomoFix plates and the lowest for the first generation Puddu plate. These findings were revealed in theoretical models and need to be validated in controlled clinical settings.

Anterior fixation of unstable pelvic ring fractures using the modified Stoppa approach: mid-term results are independent on patients' age

PURPOSE Open surgical management of unstable pelvic ring injuries has been discussed controversially compared to percutaneous techniques in terms of surgical site morbidity especially in older patients. Thus, we assessed the impact of age on the outcome following fixation of unstable pelvic ring injuries through the modified Stoppa approach. METHODS Out of a consecutive series of 92 patients eligible for the study, 63 patients (mean age 50 years, range 19-78) were evaluated [accuracy of reduction, complications, failures, Majeed-Score, Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODI), Mainz Pain Staging System (MPSS)] at a mean follow-up of 3.3 years (range 1.0-7.9). Logistic multivariate regression analysis was performed to assess the outcome in relation to increasing patient age and/or Injury Severity Score (ISS). RESULTS Out of 63 patients, in 36 an "anatomic" reduction was achieved. Ten postoperative complications occurred in eight patients. In five patients, failure of fixation was noted at the anterior and/or posterior pelvic ring. In 49 patients, an "excellent" or "good" Majeed-Score was obtained; the mean ODI was 14 % (range 0-76 %); 50 patients reported either no or only minor chronic pelvic pain (MPSS). Only an increasing ISS conferred an increased likelihood of the occurrence of a non-anatomical reduction, a "poor" or "fair" Majeed-Score, or an ODI >20 %. CONCLUSIONS Increasing age did not impact the analysed parameters. Open reduction and internal fixation of the anterior pelvic ring through a modified Stoppa approach in unstable pelvic ring injuries did not result in an unfavourable outcome with increasing age of patients.