A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

Risk of target lesion failure in relationship to vessel angiographic geometry and stent conformability using the second generation of drug-eluting stents

Vessel angulation and large changes in vessel geometry after stent implantation have been associated with an increased risk of target lesion failure (TLF) using bare-metal stents. Second-generation drug-eluting stents (DES)offer superior conformability and inhibition of neointima. The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between pre and post-implant vessel geometry and the occurrence of TLF at 1 year after treatment with second-generation DES; and to compare the conformability of Resolute and Xience stents.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Screening, Identification and Preliminary Investigation of Target Transporters in Pregnancy Pathologies

Screening, Identification and Preliminary Investigation of Target Transporters in Pregnancy Pathologies. INTRODUCTION: Pre-eclampsia (PE), intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are major sources of clinical morbidity and mortality in pregnant women worldwide. The mechanisms underlying these gestational diseases are complex and not yet fully understood, but one factor contributing to their development is impaired maternal-fetal nutrient transport. Therefore, we aimed to identify candidate membrane transporters involved in transplacental nutrient transfer associated with PE/IUGR or GDM. METHODS: Using in silico strategies, we analysed various gene expression data sets generated on different platforms focusing on solute carriers, ABC transporters and TRP channels in order to identify transporters that are differently expressed between patients and gestational age-matched controls. These bioinformatic analyses were combined with literature data to define a catalogue of target transporters that could be involved in the development of PE/IUGR or GDM. Transporters of interest were then analysed for gene expression using qRT-PCR in placental tissues of patients and controls. For validating the results on protein and functional level, we started to establish an in vitro assay using freshly isolated primary cytotrophoblast cells polarized on the Transwell® system. RESULTS: Using bioinformatics approaches, we initially identified 37 target membrane proteins which were mainly associated with the transport of amino acids, vitamins, and trace elements. At the current state of analysis, the amino acid transporters SLC7A7, SLC38A2, SLC38A5, and the thiamine transporter SLC19A3 showed significant differences in placental mRNA expression between controls and patients affected by PE and/or IUGR. Subsequent gene expression analysis in our in-house GDM placental tissue bank is still ongoing. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our in silico analyses, literature data and first follow-up in vitro validations, we were able to define potentially interesting candidate transporters implicated in PE/IUGR or GDM. To date, additional newly defined candidate targets are being analysed on mRNA level in PE/IUGR and GDM. Subsequent analyses on protein and functional level will reveal whether these targets could be of diagnostic or therapeutical interest in these pregnancy pathologies.

A logarithmic efficient estimator of the probability of ruin with recuperation for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Interobserver variations of target volume delineation in multicatheter partial breast brachytherapy after open cavity surgery

PURPOSE To investigate interobserver variations of target volume delineations in accelerated partial breast irradiation with multicatheter brachytherapy (BT) and to assess the impact of guidelines on consistency of contouring. METHODS AND MATERIALS A contouring study with two phases in interstitial accelerated partial breast irradiation after open cavity surgery was conducted by the Groupe Européen de Curiethérapie-European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology Breast Cancer Working Group. Contours of cavity and planning target volume (PTV) on preimplant and postimplant CT images were delineated. In Phase 1, nine radiation oncologists defined the target volumes of 5 patients, whereas in Phase 2, four observers draw the contours of 4 patients applying guidelines. In Phase 1, experience in breast BT after open cavity surgery was assessed. The delineations were compared between Phase 1 and Phase 2, the impact of guidelines was assessed, and cavity visualization score was related to consistency of delineations. RESULTS Significant interobserver variability in delineations of lumpectomy cavity and PTV was observed among the participants. Observers with BT experience after open cavity surgery outlined the cavity and PTV more consistently (conformity indexgen: 0.52 vs. 0.48 and 0.59 vs. 0.55 for preimplant and postimplant cavities). For all volumes, the mean Vmax/Vmin was 2.2 vs. 2.8. Having used guidelines all conformity indices increased significantly. For cavity, the increase was 14% and 11%, whereas for the PTV, 28% and 17% on the preimplant and postimplant CT images, respectively. A strong correlation was found between consistency of contours and cavity visualization score. CONCLUSIONS Simple guidelines on defining the lumpectomy cavity significantly increased the consistency of contouring. Reliable consistency of target volume definition can be expected only for good cavity visibility.