Eating disorders in youth: diagnostic variability and predictive validity

The primary aim was to examine the utility of DSM-IV criteria in predicting treatment outcome in a sample of adolescents with eating disorders.

General distress, hopelessness—suicidal ideation and worrying in adolescence: Concurrent and predictive validity of a symptom-level bifactor model for clinical diagnoses

BACKGROUND: Clinical disorders often share common symptoms and aetiological factors. Bifactor models acknowledge the role of an underlying general distress component and more specific sub-domains of psychopathology which specify the unique components of disorders over and above a general factor. METHODS: A bifactor model jointly calibrated data on subjective distress from The Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale. The bifactor model encompassed a general distress factor, and specific factors for (a) hopelessness-suicidal ideation, (b) generalised worrying and (c) restlessness-fatigue at age 14 which were related to lifetime clinical diagnoses established by interviews at ages 14 (concurrent validity) and current diagnoses at 17 years (predictive validity) in a British population sample of 1159 adolescents. RESULTS: Diagnostic interviews confirmed the validity of a symptom-level bifactor model. The underlying general distress factor was a powerful but non-specific predictor of affective, anxiety and behaviour disorders. The specific factors for hopelessness-suicidal ideation and generalised worrying contributed to predictive specificity. Hopelessness-suicidal ideation predicted concurrent and future affective disorder; generalised worrying predicted concurrent and future anxiety, specifically concurrent generalised anxiety disorders. Generalised worrying was negatively associated with behaviour disorders. LIMITATIONS: The analyses of gender differences and the prediction of specific disorders was limited due to a low frequency of disorders other than depression. CONCLUSIONS: The bifactor model was able to differentiate concurrent and predict future clinical diagnoses. This can inform the development of targeted as well as non-specific interventions for prevention and treatment of different disorders.

Remission in schizophrenia: validity, frequency, predictors, and patients' perspective 5 years later

In March 2005, the Remission in Schizophrenia Working Group (RSWG) proposed a consensus definition of symptomatic remission in schizophrenia and developed specific operational criteria for its assessment. They pointed out, however, that the validity and the relationship to other outcome dimensions required further examination. This article reviews studies on the validity, frequency, and predictors of symptomatic remission in schizophrenia and studies on patients' perspectives. These studies have demonstrated that the RSWG remission criteria appear achievable and sustainable for a significant proportion of patients, and are related to a better overall symptomatic status and functional outcome and, to a less clear extent, to a better quality of life and cognitive performance. However, achieving symptomatic remission is not automatically concurrent with an adequate status in other outcome dimensions. The results of the present review suggest that the RSWG remission criteria are valid and useful. As such, they should be consistently applied in clinical trials. However the lack of consensus definitions of functional remission and adequate quality of life hampers research on their predictive validity on these outcome dimensions. Future research should therefore search for criteria of these dimensions and test whether the RSWG remission criteria consistently predict a "good" outcome with respect to functioning and quality of life.

Concurrent and predictive validation of a novel robotic surgery simulator: a prospective, randomized study

We evaluated the concurrent and predictive validity of a novel robotic surgery simulator in a prospective, randomized study.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Self-assessment insufficiently predicts performance in emergency skills

Background: Residents demonstrate a broad range of performance levels for clinical skills, with some at an inadequate level. Adequate self-assessment is important for life long learning. However, its accuracy is questioned extensively. The aim of this study was to evaluate how far the residents’ self-assessment predicts their performance in an expert assessment of emergency skills. Summary of work: Twelve skills were identified as being relevant for the emergency duties of residents in smaller hospitals. Fifteen first-year residents from the departments of internal medicine and general surgery at a district hospital rated their performance on a questionnaire (self-assessment). This was followed by a structured, practical in vivo assessment by an anaesthesiologist (expert assessment). For both, a visual analogue scale from 0 to 10 was used, on which 0 stands for novice and 10 for expert. Predictive validity was described by Spearman’s correlation, which was significant in 3 out of 12 skills only. Median correlation (r) was 0.50 (range 0.16 to 0.93). Conclusion: At the beginning of postgraduate training, self-assessment alone is not sufficient to guide self-directed learning. Take-home message: At the beginning of their residency, physicians need structured feedback in emergency skills which can be offered by anaesthesiologists.

Development and validation of energy expenditure prediction models based on GT3X accelerometer data in 5- to 9-year-old children

Background: Accelerometry has been established as an objective method that can be used to assess physical activity behavior in large groups. The purpose of the current study was to provide a validated equation to translate accelerometer counts of the triaxial GT3X into energy expenditure in young children. Methods: Thirty-two children aged 5–9 years performed locomotor and play activities that are typical for their age group. Children wore a GT3X accelerometer and their energy expenditure was measured with indirect calorimetry. Twenty-one children were randomly selected to serve as development group. A cubic 2-regression model involving separate equations for locomotor and play activities was developed on the basis of model fit. It was then validated using data of the remaining children and compared with a linear 2-regression model and a linear 1-regression model. Results: All 3 regression models produced strong correlations between predicted and measured MET values. Agreement was acceptable for the cubic model and good for both linear regression approaches. Conclusions: The current linear 1-regression model provides valid estimates of energy expenditure for ActiGraph GT3X data for 5- to 9-year-old children and shows equal or better predictive validity than a cubic or a linear 2-regression model.

The Career Engagement Scale: Development and validation of a measure of proactive career behaviors

Careers today increasingly require engagement in proactive career behaviors; however, there is a lack of validated measures assessing the general degree to which somebody is engaged in such career behaviors. We describe the results of six studies with six independent samples of German university students (total N = 2,854), working professionals (total N = 561), and university graduates (N = 141) that report the development and validation of the Career Engagement Scale - a measure of the degree of which somebody is proactively developing her or his career as expressed by diverse career behaviors. The studies provide supprt for measurement invariance across gender and time. In support of convergent and discriminant validity, we find that career engagement is more prevalent among working professionals than among university students and that this scale has incremental validity above several specific career behaviors regarding its relation to vocational identity clarity and career self-efficacy beliefs among students and to job and career satisfaction among employees. In support of incremental predictive validity, beyond the effects of several more specific careeer behaviors, career engagement while at university predicts higher job and career satisfaction several months later after beginning work.

Patterns of motor abilities and technical skills as predictors of success for young elite football players

Sport-motor tests play an important role in football talent selections. However, single tests represent only parts of the complex game performance. The best game performance therefore does not necessarily need to go hand in hand with the best results in all tests of a test battery. Considering the complexity of the game performance appropriately, a holistic perspective together with a person-oriented approach are applied. Thereby, systems consisting of several variables are identified and analysed in a longitudinal study. Following this idea, six sport-motor tests were aggregated into a subsystem. 106 young male elite football players were tested three times (2011, 2012, 2013; Mage, t2011=12.26, SD=0.29). One year later (2014) their performance level was enquired. Data were analysed using the LICUR method, a cluster analytical method. Four patterns were identified, which remained stable at all measuring points. The players frequently show intraindividual and structurally similar patterns over time. At the third measuring point, a pattern occurred out of which the players are significantly more likely to advance to the highest performance level one year later. This pattern appears consistently above average, but does not always show best test performances. The significantly frequent development along structurally stable patterns suggests a predictive validity of the subsystem sport-motor tests between the ages of 12 to 15. Above average, but not necessarily outstanding performances both in the motor abilities as well as in the football specific tests appears to be particularly promising. This finding emphasizes the need of a holistic perspective in the talent selection.

Patterns of motor abilities and technical skills as predictors of success for young elite football players

Sport-motor tests play an important role in football talent selections. However, single tests represent only parts of the complex game performance. The best game performance therefore does not necessarily need to go hand in hand with the best results in all tests of a test battery. Considering the complexity of the game performance appropriately, a holistic perspective together with a person-oriented approach are applied. Thereby, systems consisting of several variables are identified and analysed in a longitudinal study. Following this idea, six sport-motor tests were aggregated into a subsystem. 106 young male elite football players were tested three times (2011, 2012, 2013; Mage, t2011=12.26, SD=0.29). One year later (2014) their performance level was enquired. Data were analysed using the LICUR method, a cluster analytical method. Four patterns were identified, which remained stable at all measuring points. The players frequently show intraindividual and structurally similar patterns over time. At the third measuring point, a pattern occurred out of which the players are significantly more likely to advance to the highest performance level one year later. This pattern appears consistently above average, but does not always show best test performances. The significantly frequent development along structurally stable patterns suggests a predictive validity of the subsystem sport-motor tests between the ages of 12 to 15. Above average, but not necessarily outstanding performances both in the motor abilities as well as in the football specific tests appears to be particularly promising. This finding emphasizes the need of a holistic perspective in the talent selection.

Predictive ability of a modified Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Questionnaire in an acute/subacute low back pain working population

The original 'Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Questionnaire' (original-ÖMPQ) has been shown to have limitations in practicality, factor structure, face and content validity. This study addressed these concerns by modifying its content producing the 'Örebro Musculoskeletal Screening Questionnaire' (ÖMSQ). The ÖMSQ and original-ÖMPQ were tested concurrently in acute/subacute low back pain working populations (pilot n = 44, main n = 106). The ÖMSQ showed improved face and content validity, which broadened potential application, and improved practicality with two-thirds less missing responses. High reliability (0.975, p < 0.05, ICC: 2.1), criterion validity (Spearman's r = 0.97) and internal consistency (α = 0.84) were achieved, as were predictive ability cut-off scores from ROC curves (112-120 ÖMSQ-points), statistically different ÖMSQ scores (p < 0.001) for each outcome trait, and a strong correlation with recovery time (Spearman's, r = 0.71). The six-component factor structure reflected the constructs originally proposed. The ÖMSQ can be substituted for the original-ÖMPQ in this population. Further research will assess its applicability in broader populations.

The Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Child and Youth version (SPI-CY): Practicability and discriminative validity

Background Basic symptom (BS) criteria have been suggested to complement ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria in the early detection of psychosis in adults and in children and adolescents. To account for potential developmental particularities and a different clustering of BS in children and adolescents, the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Child and Youth version (SPI-CY) was developed. Aims The SPI-CY was evaluated for its practicability and discriminative validity. Method The SPI-CY was administered to 3 groups of children and adolescents (mean age 16; range=8–18; 61% male): 23 at-risk patients meeting UHR and/or BS criteria (AtRisk), 22 clinical controls (CC), and 19 children and adolescents from the general population (GPS) matched to AtRisk in age, gender, and education. We expected AtRisk to score highest on the SPI-CY, and GPS lowest. Results The groups differed significantly on all 4 SPI-CY subscales. Pairwise post-hoc comparisons confirmed our expectations for all subscales and, at least on a descriptive level, most items. Pairwise subscale differences indicated at least moderate group effects (r≥0.37) which were largest for Adynamia (0.52≤r≥0.70). Adynamia also performed excellent to outstanding in ROC analyses (0.813≤AUC≥0.981). Conclusion The SPI-CY could be a helpful tool for detecting and assessing BS in the psychosis spectrum in children and adolescents, by whom it was well received. Furthermore, its subscales possess good discriminative validity. However, these results require validation in a larger sample, and the psychosis-predictive ability of the subscales in different age groups, especially the role of Adynamia, will have to be explored in longitudinal studies.

Anteroposterior pelvic radiographs to assess acetabular retroversion: high validity of the "cross-over-sign"

Acetabular retroversion has been proposed to contribute to the development of osteoarthritis of the hip. For the diagnosis of this condition, conventional AP pelvic radiographs may represent a reliable, easily available diagnostic modality as they can be obtained with a reproducible technique allowing the anterior and posterior acetabular rims to be visible for assessment. This study was designed to: (i) determine cranial, central, and caudal anatomic acetabular version (AV) from cadaveric specimens; (ii) establish the validity and reliability of the radiographic measurements of central acetabular anteversion; and (iii) determine the validity and reliability of the radiographic "cross-over-sign" to detect acetabular retroversion. Using 43 desiccated pelvises (86 acetabuli) the anatomic AVs were measured at three different transverse planes (cranially, centrally, and caudally). From these pelvises, standardized AP pelvic radiographs were obtained. To directly measure central AV, a modified radiographic method is introduced for the use of AP pelvic radiographs. The validity and reliability of this radiographic method and of the radiographic cross-over-sign to detect cranial acetabular retroversion were determined. The mean central and caudal anatomic AVs were approximately 20 degrees , and the mean cranial AV was 8 degrees . Cranial retroversion (AV < 0 degrees ) was present in 19 of 86 hips (22%). A linear correlation was found between the central and cranial AV. Below 10 degrees of central AV, all acetabuli were cranially retroverted. Between 10 degrees and 20 degrees , 30% of the acetabuli were cranially retroverted, and above 20 degrees , only 1 of 45 acetabuli was cranially retroverted. The radiographic measurement of the central AV (20.3 +/- 6.5 degrees ) correlated strongly with the anatomic AV (20.1 +/- 6.4 degrees ). The sensitivity of the cross-over-sign to detect a cranial acetabular anteversion of less than 4 degrees was 96%, its specificity 95%, and the positive predictive and negative predictive values 90% and 98%, respectively. Both the modified radiographic anteversion measurements and the cross-over-sign demonstrated substantial inter- and intraobserver reliability. Retroversion is almost exclusively a problem of the cranial acetabulum. The cranial AV is on average 12 degrees lower than the central AV, with the latter directly measurable from AP pelvic radiographs. A central AV of less than 10 degrees was associated with cranial retroversion. The presence of a positive cross-over-sign is a highly reliable indicator of cranial AV of <4 degrees.

Validity of Charlson Comorbidity Index in patients hospitalised with acute coronary syndrome. Insights from the nationwide AMIS Plus registry 2002-2012

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess the impact of individual comorbid conditions as well as the weight assignment, predictive properties and discriminating power of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) on outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS A prospective multicentre observational study (AMIS Plus Registry) from 69 Swiss hospitals with 29 620 ACS patients enrolled from 2002 to 2012. The main outcome measures were in-hospital and 1-year follow-up mortality. RESULTS Of the patients, 27% were female (age 72.1±12.6 years) and 73% were male (64.2±12.9 years). 46.8% had comorbidities and they were less likely to receive guideline-recommended drug therapy and reperfusion. Heart failure (adjusted OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.57 to 2.25), metastatic tumours (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.60 to 3.19), renal diseases (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.60 to 2.11) and diabetes (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.54) were strong predictors of in-hospital mortality. In this population, CCI weighted the history of prior myocardial infarction higher (1 instead of -0.4, 95% CI -1.2 to 0.3 points) but heart failure (1 instead of 3.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 4.7) and renal disease (2 instead of 3.5, 95% CI 2.7 to 4.4) lower than the benchmark, where all comorbidities, age and gender were used as predictors. However, the model with CCI and age has an identical discrimination to this benchmark (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were both 0.76). CONCLUSIONS Comorbidities greatly influenced clinical presentation, therapies received and the outcome of patients admitted with ACS. Heart failure, diabetes, renal disease or metastatic tumours had a major impact on mortality. CCI seems to be an appropriate prognostic indicator for in-hospital and 1-year outcomes in ACS patients. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER NCT01305785.

Validity of the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS) as a screener for adult ADHD in treatment seeking substance use disorder patients

Background: To detect attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in treatment seeking substance use disorders (SUD) patients, a valid screening instrument is needed. Objectives: To test the performance of the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale V 1.1(ASRS) for adult ADHD in an international sample of treatment seeking SUD patients for DSM-IV-TR; for the proposed DSM-5 criteria; in different subpopulations, at intake and 1–2 weeks after intake; using different scoring algorithms; and different externalizing disorders as external criterion (including adult ADHD, bipolar disorder, antisocial and borderline personality disorder). Methods: In 1138 treatment seeking SUD subjects, ASRS performance was determined using diagnoses based on Conner's Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID) as gold standard. Results: The prevalence of adult ADHD was 13.0% (95% CI: 11.0–15.0%). The overall positive predictive value (PPV) of the ASRS was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.22–0.30), the negative predictive value (NPV) was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96–0.98). The sensitivity (0.84, 95% CI: 0.76–0.88) and specificity (0.66, 95% CI: 0.63–0.69) measured at admission were similar to the sensitivity (0.88, 95% CI: 0.83–0.93) and specificity (0.67, 95% CI: 0.64–0.70) measured 2 weeks after admission. Sensitivity was similar, but specificity was significantly better in patients with alcohol compared to (illicit) drugs as the primary substance of abuse (0.76 vs. 0.56). ASRS was not a good screener for externalizing disorders other than ADHD. Conclusions: The ASRS is a sensitive screener for identifying possible ADHD cases with very few missed cases among those screening negative in this population.