Bivariate meta-analysis of predictive values of diagnostic tests can be an alternative to bivariate meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity

Meta-analysis of predictive values is usually discouraged because these values are directly affected by disease prevalence, but sensitivity and specificity sometimes show substantial heterogeneity as well. We propose a bivariate random-effects logitnormal model for the meta-analysis of the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of diagnostic tests.

Hip arthroscopy after surgical hip dislocation: is predictive imaging possible?

Our purpose was to study the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for hip adhesions, labral tears, and articular cartilage lesions in patients who had open treatment for femoroacetabular impingement, had persistent symptoms, and had both magnetic resonance arthrography (MRA) with radial slices and hip arthroscopy.

Validation of the Asthma Predictive Index and comparison with simpler clinical prediction rules

Background The loose and stringent Asthma Predictive Indices (API), developed in Tucson, are popular rules to predict asthma in preschool children. To be clinically useful, they require validation in different settings. Objective To assess the predictive performance of the API in an independent population and compare it with simpler rules based only on preschool wheeze. Methods We studied 1954 children of the population-based Leicester Respiratory Cohort, followed up from age 1 to 10 years. The API and frequency of wheeze were assessed at age 3 years, and we determined their association with asthma at ages 7 and 10 years by using logistic regression. We computed test characteristics and measures of predictive performance to validate the API and compare it with simpler rules. Results The ability of the API to predict asthma in Leicester was comparable to Tucson: for the loose API, odds ratios for asthma at age 7 years were 5.2 in Leicester (5.5 in Tucson), and positive predictive values were 26% (26%). For the stringent API, these values were 8.2 (9.8) and 40% (48%). For the simpler rule early wheeze, corresponding values were 5.4 and 21%; for early frequent wheeze, 6.7 and 36%. The discriminative ability of all prediction rules was moderate (c statistic ≤ 0.7) and overall predictive performance low (scaled Brier score < 20%). Conclusion Predictive performance of the API in Leicester, although comparable to the original study, was modest and similar to prediction based only on preschool wheeze. This highlights the need for better prediction rules.

Predictive value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate level versus CSF/blood glucose ratio for the diagnosis of bacterial meningitis following neurosurgery.

The value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate level and CSF/blood glucose ratio for the identification of bacterial meningitis following neurosurgery was assessed in a retrospective study. During a 3-year period, 73 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria and could be grouped by preset criteria in one of three categories: proven bacterial meningitis (n = 12), presumed bacterial meningitis (n = 14), and nonbacterial meningeal syndrome (n = 47). Of 73 patients analyzed, 45% were treated with antibiotics and 33% with steroids at the time of first lumbar puncture. CSF lactate values (cutoff, 4 mmol/L), in comparison with CSF/blood glucose ratios (cutoff, 0.4), were associated with higher sensitivity (0.88 vs. 0.77), specificity (0.98 vs. 0.87), and positive (0.96 vs. 0.77) and negative (0.94 vs. 0.87) predictive values. In conclusion, determination of the CSF lactate value is a quick, sensitive, and specific test to identify patients with bacterial meningitis after neurosurgery.

Predicting the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis by two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact compared to bone biopsy for the diagnosis of diabetic toe osteomyelitis. The same nurse and orthopaedic surgeon obtained all samples: sample A-1: bone contact swabbing through the ulcer; sample A-2: a second culture swabbing from the bone surface within 24 h; sample B: surgical bone biopsy in the operating theatre. The kappa statistic measure between samples A-1 and A-2 (bone contact swabs) indicated 82.35% agreement. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the two samples A compared to B were 96%, 79%, 92% and 88%, respectively, for the causative pathogen. These results were similar with prior antibiotic treatment, discordant bone surface swabs or with monomicrobial infections. As a conclusion, two consecutive diabetic toe cultures with bone contact accurately predict the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis in 90% of cases.

Poor performance of microbiological sampling in the prediction of recurrent arthroplasty infection

During a two-stage revision for prosthetic joint infections (PJI), joint aspirations, open tissue sampling and serum inflammatory markers are performed before re-implantation to exclude ongoing silent infection. We investigated the performance of these diagnostic procedures on the risk of recurrence of PJI among asymptomatic patients undergoing a two-stage revision. A total of 62 PJI were found in 58 patients. All patients had intra-operative surgical exploration during re-implantation, and 48 of them had intra-operative microbiological swabs. Additionally, 18 joint aspirations and one open biopsy were performed before second-stage reimplantation. Recurrence or persistence of PJI occurred in 12 cases with a mean delay of 218 days after re-implantation, but only four pre- or intraoperative invasive joint samples had grown a pathogen in cultures. In at least seven recurrent PJIs (58%), patients had a normal C-reactive protein (CRP, < 10 mg/l) level before re-implantation. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values of pre-operative invasive joint aspiration and CRP for the prediction of PJI recurrence was 0.58, 0.88, 0.5, 0.84 and 0.17, 0.81, 0.13, 0.86, respectively. As a conclusion, pre-operative joint aspiration, intraoperative bacterial sampling, surgical exploration and serum inflammatory markers are poor predictors of PJI recurrence. The onset of reinfection usually occurs far later than reimplantation.

A comparison of the original and simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated clinical prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Recently, a simplified version of the PESI was developed. We sought to compare the prognostic performance of the original and simplified PESI. Using data from 15,531 patients with PE, we compared the proportions of patients classified as low versus higher risk between the original and simplified PESI and estimated 30-day mortality within each risk group. To assess the models' accuracy to predict mortality, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and likelihood ratios for low- versus higher-risk patients. We also compared the models' discriminative power by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The overall 30-day mortality was 9.3%. The original PESI classified a significantly greater proportion of patients as low-risk than the simplified PESI (40.9% vs. 36.8%; p<0.001). Low-risk patients based on the original and simplified PESI had a mortality of 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively. The original and simplified PESI had similar sensitivities (90% vs. 89%), negative predictive values (98% vs. 97%), and negative likelihood ratios (0.23 vs. 0.28) for predicting mortality. The original PESI had a significantly greater discriminatory power than the simplified PESI (area under the ROC curve 0.78 [95% CI: 0.77-0.79] vs. 0.72 [95% CI: 0.71-0.74]; p<0.001). In conclusion, even though the simplified PESI accurately identified patients at low-risk of adverse outcomes, the original PESI classified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk and had a greater discriminatory power than the simplified PESI.

Accuracy of immunological criteria for identifying virological failure in children on antiretroviral therapy - The IeDEA Southern Africa Collaboration

Objectives  To determine the diagnostic accuracy of World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 and 2006 as well as United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 definitions of immunological failure for identifying virological failure (VF) in children on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Incomplete virological suppression (IVS) was defined as failure to achieve ≥1 HIV-RNA ≤400 copies/ml between 6 and 15 months on ART and viral rebound (VR) as confirmed HIV-RNA ≥5000 copies/ml in a child on ART for ≥18 months who had achieved suppression during the first year on treatment. Results  Among 3115 children [median (interquartile range) age 48 (20-84) months at ART initiation] on treatment for ≥1 year, sensitivity of immunological criteria for IVS was 10%, 6% and 26% for WHO 2006, WHO 2010 and DHHS 2008 criteria, respectively. The corresponding positive predictive values (PPV) were 31%, 20% and 20%. Diagnostic accuracy for VR was determined in 2513 children with ≥18 months of follow-up and virological suppression during the first year on ART with sensitivity of 5% (WHO 2006/2010) and 27% (DHHS 2008). PPV results were 42% (WHO 2010), 43% (WHO 2006) and 20% (DHHS 2008). Conclusion  Current immunological criteria are unable to correctly identify children failing ART virologically. Improved access to viral load testing is needed to reliably identify VF in children.

Mannitol dry powder challenge in comparison with exercise testing in children

Rationale Mannitol dry powder (MDP) challenge is an indirect bronchial provocation test, which is well studied in adults but not established for children. Objective We compared feasibility, validity, and clinical significance of MDP challenge with exercise testing in children in a clinical setting. Methods Children aged 6–16 years, referred to two respiratory outpatient clinics for possible asthma diagnosis, underwent standardized exercise testing followed within a week by an MDP challenge (Aridol™, Pharmaxis, Australia). Agreement between the two challenge tests using Cohen's kappa and receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curves was compared. Results One hundred eleven children performed both challenge tests. Twelve children were excluded due to exhaustion or insufficient cooperation (11 at the exercise test, 1 at the MDP challenge), leaving 99 children (mean ± SD age 11.5 ± 2.7 years) for analysis. MDP tests were well accepted, with minor side effects and a shorter duration than exercise tests. The MDP challenge was positive in 29 children (29%), the exercise test in 21 (21%). Both tests were concordant in 83 children (84%), with moderate agreement (κ = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39–0.76). Positive and negative predictive values of the MDP challenge for exercise-induced bronchoconstriction were 68% and 89%. The overall ability of MDP challenge to separate children with or without positive exercise tests was good (area under the ROC curve 0.83). Conclusions MDP challenge test is feasible in children and is a suitable alternative for bronchial challenge testing in childhood. Pediatr. Pulmonol. 2011; 46:842–848. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Self-efficacy as a predictor of outcome after residential treatment programs for alcohol dependence: simply ask the patient one question!

Self-efficacy has been identified as one of the most consistent variables that predict the outcome of alcohol treatment. However, many previous studies in this field failed to control for other important predictors (e.g., dependences severity, psychiatric symptoms, and treatment goal). Our study's first goal was to evaluate the predictive value of self-efficacy when most other relevant variables were statistically controlled. The second goal was to compare the predictive values of self-efficacy assessed with the Situational Confidence Questionnaire (SCQ), and general self-efficacy assessed with a single question.

Evaluation of an in vitro sulphidoleukotriene release test for diagnosis of insect bite hypersensitivity in horses

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is an IgE-mediated allergic dermatitis caused by bites of Culicoides and Simulium species, and improved means of diagnosis are required. OBJECTIVES: The cellular antigen simulation test (CAST) with C. nubeculosus and S. vittatum extracts was assessed in a population of IBH-affected and healthy horses. Variations in test results over a one year period and possible cross-reactivity between different insect extracts was studied. METHODS: A total of 314 mature horses were studied using the CAST. Influence of severity of clinical signs, gender and age were evaluated, and 32 horses were tested repeatedly over one year. The kappa reliability test was used to assess agreement of the test results with different insect extracts. RESULTS: Horses with IBH had significantly higher sLT release than controls with C. nubeculosus and S. vittatum. The highest diagnostic sensitivity and specificity levels were attained when using adult C. nubeculosus extracts with the CAST (78% and 97%, respectively), suggesting that most horses with IBH are sensitised against Culicoides allergens. A proportion of IBH-affected horses was found to be sensitised to allergens of Simulium spp. in addition to those of C. nubeculosus. The CAST with C. nubeculosus had positive and negative predictive values > or = 80% for a true prevalence of IBH of 12-52%. In the follow-up study, the proportion of IBH-affected horses with a positive test result ranged from 90% in November to 68% in March. Severity of clinical signs or age did not influence test results significantly. However, IBH-affected males achieved significantly more positive test results than IBH-affected females. CONCLUSIONS: The CAST with adult C. nubeculosus has high specificity and good sensitivity for diagnosis of IBH. Horses with IBH are mainly sensitised to Culicoides allergens, and some horses are additionally also sensitised to allergens in Simulium spp. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The CAST is likely to be a useful test for diagnosis of IBH, even allowing the identification of IBH-affected but asymptomatic horses. This test may also help in further characterisation of allergens involved in this condition.

Serum markers for predicting pre-eclampsia

Pre-eclampsia, a pregnancy-specific disorder, contributes substantially to perinatal morbidity and mortality of both, mother and newborn. An increasing number of biochemical agents were evaluated as markers for predicting pre-eclampsia. None of them has been proved to be of clinical value yet. Much effort has been put into assessing novel potential markers and their combination with other screening methods such as Doppler sonography. The purpose of this review is to reflect the current knowledge of serum markers for predicting pre-eclampsia. So far, the most promising serum markers are placental protein 13 (PP-13), as well as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), placental growth factor (PIGF) and soluble endoglin (sEng). These markers allow screening at a relatively early stage and, most importantly, show relatively high predictive values and improved diagnostic performance if combined with first trimester Doppler sonography. Large-scale prospective studies, assessing these markers, are important to justify their clinical use in view of early intervention to prevent pre-eclampsia in the future.

Anteroposterior pelvic radiographs to assess acetabular retroversion: high validity of the "cross-over-sign"

Acetabular retroversion has been proposed to contribute to the development of osteoarthritis of the hip. For the diagnosis of this condition, conventional AP pelvic radiographs may represent a reliable, easily available diagnostic modality as they can be obtained with a reproducible technique allowing the anterior and posterior acetabular rims to be visible for assessment. This study was designed to: (i) determine cranial, central, and caudal anatomic acetabular version (AV) from cadaveric specimens; (ii) establish the validity and reliability of the radiographic measurements of central acetabular anteversion; and (iii) determine the validity and reliability of the radiographic "cross-over-sign" to detect acetabular retroversion. Using 43 desiccated pelvises (86 acetabuli) the anatomic AVs were measured at three different transverse planes (cranially, centrally, and caudally). From these pelvises, standardized AP pelvic radiographs were obtained. To directly measure central AV, a modified radiographic method is introduced for the use of AP pelvic radiographs. The validity and reliability of this radiographic method and of the radiographic cross-over-sign to detect cranial acetabular retroversion were determined. The mean central and caudal anatomic AVs were approximately 20 degrees , and the mean cranial AV was 8 degrees . Cranial retroversion (AV < 0 degrees ) was present in 19 of 86 hips (22%). A linear correlation was found between the central and cranial AV. Below 10 degrees of central AV, all acetabuli were cranially retroverted. Between 10 degrees and 20 degrees , 30% of the acetabuli were cranially retroverted, and above 20 degrees , only 1 of 45 acetabuli was cranially retroverted. The radiographic measurement of the central AV (20.3 +/- 6.5 degrees ) correlated strongly with the anatomic AV (20.1 +/- 6.4 degrees ). The sensitivity of the cross-over-sign to detect a cranial acetabular anteversion of less than 4 degrees was 96%, its specificity 95%, and the positive predictive and negative predictive values 90% and 98%, respectively. Both the modified radiographic anteversion measurements and the cross-over-sign demonstrated substantial inter- and intraobserver reliability. Retroversion is almost exclusively a problem of the cranial acetabulum. The cranial AV is on average 12 degrees lower than the central AV, with the latter directly measurable from AP pelvic radiographs. A central AV of less than 10 degrees was associated with cranial retroversion. The presence of a positive cross-over-sign is a highly reliable indicator of cranial AV of <4 degrees.

One-year bacterial colonization patterns of Staphylococcus aureus and other bacteria at implants and adjacent teeth

AIMS: (i) To assess the pattern of early bacterial colonization on titanium oral implants after installation, at 12 weeks and at 12 months, (ii) to compare the microbiota at submucosal implant sites and adjacent subgingival tooth sites and (iii) to assess whether or not early colonization was predictive of 12-month colonization patterns. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Submucosal/subgingival plaque samples from 17 titanium oral implants and adjacent teeth were analyzed by checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization 30 min, 12 weeks and 12 months after implant installation. RESULTS: At 12 months, none of the inserted implants had been lost or presented with signs of peri-implantitis. The distribution of sites at implants and teeth with bleeding on probing varied between 2% and 11%. Probing pocket depths < or =3 mm were found at 75% of implant sites. At 12 months, the sum of the bacterial counts of 40 species was statistically significantly higher at tooth compared with implant sites (mean difference: 34.4 x 10(5), 95% confidence interval -0.4 to 69.4, P<0.05). At 12 months, higher individual bacterial counts at tooth sites were found for 7/40 species compared with implant sites. Detection or lack of detection of Staphylococcus aureus at implant sites at 12 weeks resulted in the highest positive (e.g. 80%) and negative (e.g. 90%) predictive values, respectively. Between 12 weeks and 12 months, the prevalence of Tannerella forsythia increased statistically significantly at implant sites (P<0.05). Lack of detection of Porphyromonas gingivalis at 12 weeks yielded a negative predictive value of 93.1% of this microorganism being undetectable at implant sites at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limits of this study, the findings showed (i) a few differences in the prevalence of bacterial species between implant and adjacent tooth sites at 12 months and (ii) high positive and negative predictive values for selected bacterial species.

Functionally relevant coronary artery disease: comparison of 64-section CT angiography with myocardial perfusion SPECT

PURPOSE: To prospectively determine the accuracy of 64-section computed tomographic (CT) angiography for the depiction of coronary artery disease (CAD) that induces perfusion defects at myocardial perfusion imaging with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), by using myocardial perfusion imaging as the reference standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients gave written informed consent after the study details, including radiation exposure, were explained. The study protocol was approved by the local institutional review board. In patients referred for elective conventional coronary angiography, an additional 64-section CT angiography study and a myocardial perfusion imaging study (1-day adenosine stress-rest protocol) with technetium 99m-tetrofosmin SPECT were performed before conventional angiography. Coronary artery diameter narrowing of 50% or greater at CT angiography was defined as stenosis and was compared with the myocardial perfusion imaging findings. Quantitative coronary angiography served as a reference standard for CT angiography. RESULTS: A total of 1093 coronary segments in 310 coronary arteries in 78 patients (mean age, 65 years +/- 9 [standard deviation]; 35 women) were analyzed. CT angiography revealed stenoses in 137 segments (13%) corresponding to 91 arteries (29%) in 46 patients (59%). SPECT revealed 14 reversible, 13 fixed, and six partially reversible defects in 31 patients (40%). Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values, respectively, of CT angiography in the detection of reversible myocardial perfusion imaging defects were 95%, 53%, 94%, and 58% on a per-patient basis and 95%, 75%, 96%, and 72% on a per-artery basis. Agreement between CT and conventional angiography was very good (96% and kappa = 0.92 for patient-based analysis, 93% and kappa = 0.84 for vessel-based analysis). CONCLUSION: Sixty-four-section CT angiography can help rule out hemodynamically relevant CAD in patients with intermediate to high pretest likelihood, although an abnormal CT angiography study is a poor predictor of ischemia.