Bivariate meta-analysis of predictive values of diagnostic tests can be an alternative to bivariate meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity

Meta-analysis of predictive values is usually discouraged because these values are directly affected by disease prevalence, but sensitivity and specificity sometimes show substantial heterogeneity as well. We propose a bivariate random-effects logitnormal model for the meta-analysis of the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of diagnostic tests.

Mid-term results in relation to age and analysis of predictive factors after fixation of acetabular fractures using the modified Stoppa approach.

INTRODUCTION Data concerning outcome after management of acetabular fractures by anterior approaches with focus on age and fractures associated with roof impaction, central dislocation and/or quadrilateral plate displacement are rare. METHODS Between October 2005 and April 2009 a series of 59 patients (mean age 57 years, range 13-91) with fractures involving the anterior column was treated using the modified Stoppa approach alone or for reduction of displaced iliac wing or low anterior column fractures in combination with the 1st window of the ilioinguinal approach or the modified Smith-Petersen approach, respectively. Surgical data, accuracy of reduction, clinical and radiographic outcome at mid-term and the need for endoprosthetic replacement in the postoperative course (defined as failure) were assessed; uni- and multivariate regression analysis were performed to identify independent predictive factors (e.g. age, nonanatomical reduction, acetabular roof impaction, central dislocation, quadrilateral plate displacement) for a failure. Outcome was assessed for all patients in general and in accordance to age in particular; patients were subdivided into two groups according to their age (group "<60yrs", group "≥60yrs"). RESULTS Forty-three of 59 patients (mean age 54yrs, 13-89) were available for evaluation. Of these, anatomic reduction was achieved in 72% of cases. Nonanatomical reduction was identified as being the only multivariate predictor for subsequent total hip replacement (Adjusted Hazard Ratio 23.5; p<0.01). A statistically significant higher rate of nonanatomical reduction was observed in the presence of acetabular roof impaction (p=0.01). In 16% of all patients, total hip replacement was performed and in 69% of patients with preserved hips the clinical results were excellent or good at a mean follow up of 35±10 months (range: 24-55). No statistical significant differences were observed between both groups. CONCLUSION Nonanatomical reconstruction of the articular surfaces is at risk for failure of joint-preserving management of acetabular fractures through an isolated or combined modified Stoppa approach resulting in total joint replacement at mid-term. In the elderly, joint-preserving surgery is worth considering as promising clinical and radiographic results might be obtained at mid-term.

Serial lactate and admission SOFA scores in trauma: an analysis of predictive value in 724 patients with and without traumatic brain injury

Objective Arterial lactate, base excess (BE), lactate clearance, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score have been shown to correlate with outcome in severely injured patients. The goal of the present study was to separately assess their predictive value in patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) as opposed to patients suffering from injuries not related to the brain. Materials and methods A total of 724 adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 were grouped into patients without TBI (non-TBI), patients with isolated TBI (isolated TBI), and patients with a combination of TBI and non-TBI injuries (combined injuries). The predictive value of the above parameters was then analyzed using both uni- and multivariate analyses. Results The mean age of the patients was 39 years (77 % males), with a mean ISS of 32 (range 16–75). Mortality ranged from 14 % (non-TBI) to 24 % (combined injuries). Admission and serial lactate/BE values were higher in non-survivors of all groups (all p < 0.01), but not in patients with isolated TBI. Admission SOFA scores were highest in non-survivors of all groups (p = 0.023); subsequently septic patients also showed elevated SOFA scores (p < 0.01), except those with isolated TBI. In this group, SOFA score was the only parameter which showed significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed lactate to be the best overall predictor for increased mortality and further septic complications, irrespective of the leading injury. Conclusion Lactate showed the best performance in predicting sepsis or death in all trauma patients except those with isolated TBI, and the differences were greatest in patients with substantial bleeding. Following isolated TBI, SOFA score was the only parameter which could differentiate survivors from non-survivors on admission, although the SOFA score, too, was not an independent predictor of death following multivariate analysis.

Quantitative analysis of O(6)-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation in patients with low-grade gliomas

Methylation of the MGMT promoter is supposed to be a predictive and prognostic factor in glioblastoma. Whether MGMT promoter methylation correlates with tumor response to temozolomide in low-grade gliomas is less clear. Therefore, we analyzed MGMT promoter methylation by a quantitative methylation-specific PCR in 22 patients with histologically verified low-grade gliomas (WHO grade II) who were treated with temozolomide (TMZ) for tumor progression. Objective tumor response, toxicity, and LOH of microsatellite markers on chromosomes 1p and 19q were analyzed. Histological classification revealed ten oligodendrogliomas, seven oligoastrocytomas, and five astrocytomas. All patients were treated with TMZ 200 mg/m2 on days 1-5 in a 4 week cycle. The median progression-free survival was 32 months. Combined LOH 1p and 19q was found in 14 patients; one patient had LOH 1p alone and one patient LOH 19q alone. The LOH status could not be determined in two patients and was normal in the remaining four. LOH 1p and/or 19q correlated with longer time to progression but not with radiological response to TMZ. MGMT promoter methylation was detectable in 20 patients by conventional PCR and quantitative analysis revealed the methylation status was between 12 and 100%. The volumetric response to chemotherapy analyzed by MRI and time to progression correlated with the level of MGMT promoter methylation. Therefore, our retrospective case series suggests that quantitative methylation-specific PCR of the MGMT promoter predicts radiological response to chemotherapy with TMZ in WHO grade II gliomas.

Predictors of severe late radiotherapy-related toxicity after hyperfractionated radiotherapy with or without concomitant cisplatin in locally advanced head and neck cancer. Secondary retrospective analysis of a randomized phase III trial (SAKK 10/94)

This secondary analysis was performed to identify predictive factors for severe late radiotherapy (RT)-related toxicity after treatment with hyperfractionated RT +/- concomitant cisplatin in locally advanced head and neck cancer.

Safe and early discharge after colorectal surgery due to C-reactive protein: a diagnostic meta-analysis of 1832 patients

To assess the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) level for postoperative infectious complications after colorectal surgery.

A 10-year longitudinal analysis of surgical management for acute ischemic colitis

Our objective was to review our 10-year experience of surgical resection for acute ischemic colitis (IC) and to assess the predictive value of previously reported risk-stratification methods.

Are mutans streptococci detected in preschool children a reliable predictive factor for dental caries risk? A systematic review

Research suggests that mutans streptococci play an important role in cariogenesis in children but the usefulness of bacterial testing in risk assessment is unknown. Our objective was to summarize the literature assessing the association of mutans streptococci and dental caries in preschool children, (Pre)Medline (1966-2003), Embase (1980-2003), the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (2003, issue 3), and reference lists of included studies were searched. All abstracts found by the electronic searches (n = 981) were independently scrutinized by 2 reviewers. Minimal requirements for inclusion were assessment of preschool children without caries at baseline, reporting of mutans streptococci present in saliva or plaque at baseline and assessment of caries presence after a minimum of 6 months of follow-up. Participants' details, test methods, methodological characteristics and findings were extracted by one reviewer and cross-checked by another. Homogeneity was tested using chi2 tests. Results of plaque and saliva testing were pooled separately using a fixed effects model. Methodological quality of reports was low. Out of 9 studies included, data from 3 reports on plaque test assessment alone (n = 300) and from 4 reports on saliva test assessment alone (n = 451) were available for pooled analysis. The pooled risk ratio (95% CI) was 3.85 (2.48-5.96) in studies using plaque tests and 2.11 (1.47-3.02) in those using saliva testing. Presence of mutans streptococci, both in plaque or saliva of young caries-free children, appears to be associated with a considerable increase in caries risk. Lack of adjustment for potential confounders in the original studies, however, limits the extent to which interpretations for practice can be made.

Resonance frequency analysis in relation to jawbone characteristics and during early healing of implant installation

OBJECTIVES: To monitor resonance frequency analysis (RFA) in relation to the jawbone characteristics and during the early phases of healing and incorporation of Straumann dental implants with an SLA surface. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 17 Straumann 4.1 mm implants (10 mm) and 7 Straumann 4.8 mm implants (10 mm) were installed and ISQ determined at baseline and after 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 12 weeks. Central bone cores were analyzed from the 4.1 mm implants using micro CT for bone volume density (BVD) and bone trabecular connectivity (BTC). RESULTS: Pocket probing depths ranged from 2-4 mm and bleeding on probing from 5-20%. At baseline, BVD varied between 24% and 65% and BTC between 4.9 and 25.4 for the 4.1 mm implants. Baseline ISQ varied between 55 and 74 with a mean of 61.4. No significant correlations were found between BVD or BTC and ISQ Values. For the 4.8 mm diameter implants baseline ISQ values ranged from 57-70 with a mean of 63.3. Over the healing period ISQ values increased at 1 week and decreased after 2-3 weeks. After 4 weeks ISQ values, again increased slightly, no significant differences were noted over time. One implant (4.1 mm) lost stability at 3 weeks. Its ISQ value had dropped from 68 to 45. However the latter value was determined after the clinical diagnosis of instability. CONCLUSION: ISQ values of 57-70 represented homeostasis and implant stability. However no predictive value for loosing implant stability can be attributed to RFA since the decrease occurred after the fact.

Resonance Frequency Analysis (RFA) during early healing

Objectives: - to monitor resonance frequency analysis (RFA) in relation to the jawbone characteristics during the early phases of healing and incorporation of Straumann® dental implants with an SLA surface. Material and methods: 17 Straumann 4.1mm implants (10mm) and 7 Straumann 4.8mm implants (10mm) were installed and ISQ determined at baseline and after 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 12 weeks. Central bone cores were analyzed from the 4.1mm implants using micro CT for bone volume density (BVD) and bone trabecular connectivity (BTC). Results: Pocket probing depths ranged between 2-4mm and bleeding on probing between 5-20%. At baseline, BVD varied between 24 and 65% and BTC between 4.9 and 25.4 for the 4.1mm implants. Baseline ISQ varied between 55 and 74 with a mean of 61.4. No significant correlations were found between BVD or BTC and ISQ Values. For the 4.8mm diameter implants baseline ISQ values ranged from 57 – 70 with a mean of 63.3. Over the healing period ISQ values increased at 1 week and decreased after 2-3 weeks. After 4 weeks ISQ values, again increased slightly, no significant differences were noted over time. One implant (4.1mm) lost stability at 3 weeks. Its ISQ value had dropped from 68 to 45. However the latter value was determined after the clinical diagnosis of instability. Conclusion: ISQ values of 57 – 70 represented homeostasis and implant stability. However no predictive value for loosing implant stability can be attributed to RFA since decease occurred after the fact.

Spectral waveform analysis of intranodal arterial blood flow in abnormally large superficial lymph nodes in dogs

Objective-To evaluate pulsed-wave Doppler spectral parameters as a method for distinguishing between neoplastic and inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs. Sample Population-40 superficial lymph nodes from 33 dogs with peripheral lymphadenopathy. Procedures-3 Doppler spectral tracings were recorded from each node. Spectral Doppler analysis including assessment of the resistive index, peak systolic velocity-to-end diastolic velocity (S:D) ratio, diastolic notch velocity-to-peak systolic velocity (N:S) ratio, and end diastolic velocity-to-diastolic notch velocity ratio was performed for each tracing. Several calculation methods were used to determine the Doppler indices for each lymph node. After the ultrasonographic examination, fine needle aspirates or excisional biopsy specimens of the examined lymph nodes were obtained, and lymphadenopathy was classified as either inflammatory or neoplastic (lymphomatous or metastatic) via cytologic or histologic examination. Results of Doppler analysis were compared with cytologic or histopathologic findings. Results-The Doppler index with the highest diagnostic accuracy was the S:D ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 3.22 yielded sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 100%, and negative predictive value of 89% for detection of neoplasia. Overall diagnostic accuracy was 95%. At a sensitivity of 100%, the most accurate index was the N:S ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 0.45 yielded specificity of 67%, positive predictive value of 81%, and overall diagnostic accuracy of 86.5%. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results suggested that noninvasive Doppler spectral analysis may be useful in the diagnosis of neoplastic versus inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs.

Clinical and microbiological analysis of subjects treated with Brånemark or AstraTech implants: a 7-year follow-up study

AIMS: To assess the impact of different implant systems on the clinical conditions and the microbiota at implants, and whether the presence of bacteria at tooth sites was predictive of the presence at implant sites. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Subjects with either AstraTech or Brånemark in function for 7 years were enrolled. Sub-gingival bacterial samples at tooth and implant sites were collected with sterile endodontic paper points, and analyzed by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method (40 species). RESULTS: Fifty-four subjects, 27 supplied with AstraTech (n=132 implants) and 27 with Brånemark (n=102) implants, were studied. Test tooth sites had significantly less evidence of bleeding on probing (P<0.001) and presence of plaque (P<0.001) than implant test sites. Implant sites presented with deeper probing pocket depth than tooth sites (mean difference: 1.1 mm, standard error of differences: 0.08, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.9-1.3, P<0.001). Tannerella forsythia (P<0.05), Capnocytophaga sputigena (P<0.05), Actinomyces israelii (P<0.05) and Lactobacillus acidophilus (P<0.05) were found at higher levels at tooth surfaces. No differences in bacterial load for any species were found between the two implant systems. The odds of being present/absent at tooth and implants sites were only significant for Staphylococcus aureus [odds ratio (OR): 5.2 : 1, 95% CI: 1.4-18.9, P<0.01]. CONCLUSIONS: After 7 years in function, implants presented with deeper probing depths than teeth. S. aureus was commonly present at both teeth and implants sites. S. aureus at tooth sites was predictive of also being present at implant sites.

Bloodstream infections in pediatric ECLS: usefulness of daily blood culture monitoring and predictive value of biological markers. The British Columbia experience

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of bloodstream infection (BSI) in extracorporeal life support (ECLS) is reported between 0.9 and 19.5%. In January 2006, the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) reported an overall incidence of 8.78% distributed as follows: respiratory: 6.5% (neonatal), 20.8% (pediatric); cardiac: 8.2% (neonatal) and 12.6% (pediatric). METHOD: At BC Children's Hospital (BCCH) daily surveillance blood cultures (BC) are performed and antibiotic prophylaxis is not routinely recommended. Positive BC (BC+) were reviewed, including resistance profiles, collection time of BC+, time to positivity and mortality. White blood cell count, absolute neutrophile count, immature/total ratio, platelet count, fibrinogen and lactate were analyzed 48, 24 and 0 h prior to BSI. A univariate linear regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2005, 89 patients underwent ECLS. After exclusion, 84 patients were reviewed. The attack rate was 22.6% (19 BSI) and 13.1% after exclusion of coagulase-negative staphylococci (n = 8). BSI patients were significantly longer on ECLS (157 h) compared to the no-BSI group (127 h, 95% CI: 106-148). Six BSI patients died on ECLS (35%; 4 congenital diaphragmatic hernias, 1 hypoplastic left heart syndrome and 1 after a tetralogy repair). BCCH survival on ECLS was 71 and 58% at discharge, which is comparable to previous reports. No patient died primarily because of BSI. No BSI predictor was identified, although lactate may show a decreasing trend before BSI (P = 0.102). CONCLUSION: Compared with ELSO, the studied BSI incidence was higher with a comparable mortality. We speculate that our BSI rate is explained by underreporting of "contaminants" in the literature, the use of broad-spectrum antibiotic prophylaxis and a higher yield with daily monitoring BC. We support daily surveillance blood cultures as an alternative to antibiotic prophylaxis in the management of patients on ECLS.

The accuracy of FAST in relation to grade of solid organ injuries: a retrospective analysis of 226 trauma patients with liver or splenic lesion

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the role of a negative FAST in the diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm of multiply injured patients with liver or splenic lesions. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 226 multiply injured patients with liver or splenic lesions treated at Bern University Hospital, Switzerland. RESULTS: FAST failed to detect free fluid or organ lesions in 45 of 226 patients with spleen or liver injuries (sensitivity 80.1%). Overall specificity was 99.5%. The positive and negative predictive values were 99.4% and 83.3%. The overall likelihood ratios for a positive and negative FAST were 160.2 and 0.2. Grade III-V organ lesions were detected more frequently than grade I and II lesions. Without the additional diagnostic accuracy of a CT scan, the mean ISS of the FAST-false-negative patients would be significantly underestimated and 7 previously unsuspected intra-abdominal injuries would have been missed. CONCLUSION: FAST is an expedient tool for the primary assessment of polytraumatized patients to rule out high grade intra-abdominal injuries. However, the low overall diagnostic sensitivity of FAST may lead to underestimated injury patterns and delayed complications may occur. Hence, in hemodynamically stable patients with abdominal trauma, an early CT scan should be considered and one must be aware of the potential shortcomings of a "negative FAST".

Admission blood glucose is an independent predictive factor for hospital mortality in polytraumatised patients

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to analyse a possible association of admission blood glucose with hospital mortality of polytraumatised patients and to develop an outcome prediction model for this patient group. METHODS: The outcome of adult polytraumatised patients admitted to the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, between 2002 and 2004 with an ISS > or = 17, and more than one severely injured organ system was retrospectively analysed. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 555 patients, of which 108 (19.5%) died. Hyperglycaemia proved to be an independent predictor for hospital mortality (P < 0.0001), following multiple regression analysis. After inclusion of admission blood glucose, the calculated mortality prediction model performed better than currently described models (P < 0.0001, AUC 0.924). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective, single-centre study in polytraumatised patients, admission blood glucose proved to be an independent predictor of hospital mortality following regression analysis controlling for age, gender, injury severity and other laboratory parameters. A reliable admission blood glucose-based mortality prediction model for polytraumatised patients could be established. This observation may be helpful in improving the precision of future outcome prediction models for polytraumatised patients. These observations warrant further prospective evaluation.