3 resultados para Prediction theory

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Theory: Interpersonal factors play a major role in causing and maintaining depression. It is unclear, however, to what degree significant others of the patient need to be involved for characterizing the patient's interpersonal style. Therefore, our study sought to investigate how impact messages as perceived by the patients' significant others add to the prediction of psychotherapy process and outcome above and beyond routine assessments, and therapist factors. Method: 143 outpatients with major depressive disorder were treated by 24 therapists with CBT or Exposure-Based Cognitive Therapy. Interpersonal style was measured pre and post therapy with the informant‐based Impact Message Inventory (IMI), in addition to the self‐report Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP‐32). Indicators for the patients' dominance and affiliation as well as interpersonal distress were calculated from these measures. Depressive and general symptomatology was assessed at pre, post, and at three months follow‐up, and by process measures after every session. Results: Whereas significant other's reports did not add significantly to the prediction of the early therapeutic alliance, central mechanisms of change, or post‐therapy outcome including therapist factors, the best predictor of outcome 3 months post therapy was an increase in dominance as perceived by significant others. Conclusions: The patients' significant others seem to provide important additional information about the patients' interpersonal style and therefore should be included in the diagnostic process. Moreover, practitioners should specifically target interpersonal change as a potential mechanism of change in psychotherapy for depression.

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Numerical calculations describing weathering of the Poços de Caldas alkaline complex (Minas Gerais, Brazil) by infiltrating groundwater are carried out for time spans up to two million years in the absence of pyrite, and up to 500,000 years with pyrite present. Deposition of uranium resulting from infiltration of oxygenated, uranium bearing groundwater through the hydrothermally altered phonolitic host rock at the Osamu Utsumi uranium mine is also included in the latter calculation. The calculations are based on the quasi-stationary state approximation to mass conservation equations for pure advective transport. This approximation enables the prediction of solute concentrations, mineral abundances and porosity as functions of time and distance over geologic time spans. Mineral reactions are described by kinetic rate laws for both precipitation and dissolution. Homogeneous equilibrium is assumed to be maintained within the aqueous phase. No other constraints are imposed on the calculations other than the initial composition of the unaltered host rock and the composition of the inlet fluid, taken as rainwater modified by percolation through a soil zone. The results are in qualitative agreement with field observations at the Osamu Utsumi uranium mine. They predict a lateritic cover followed by a highly porous saprolitic zone, a zone of oxidized rock with pyrite replaced by iron-hydroxide, a sharp redox front at which uranium is deposited, and the reduced unweathered host rock. Uranium is deposited in a narrow zone located on the reduced side of the redox front in association with pyrite, in agreement with field observations. The calculations predict the formation of a broad dissolution front of primary kaolinite that penetrates deep into the host rock accompanied by the precipitation of secondary illite. Secondary kaolinite occurs in a saprolitic zone near the surface and in the vicinity of the redox front. Gibbsite forms a bi-modal distribution consisting of a maximum near the surface followed by a thin tongue extending downward into the weathered profile in agreement with field observations. The results are found to be insensitive to the kinetic rate constants used to describe mineral reactions.