A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th-90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40-111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69-215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108-427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be robust through validation with an independent dataset. The model is appropriate for predicting radon level exposure of the Swiss population in epidemiological research. Nevertheless, some exposure misclassification and regression to the mean is unavoidable and should be taken into account in future applications of the model.

The importance of growth hormone in the regulation of erythropoiesis, red cell mass, and plasma volume in adults with growth hormone deficiency

Total body water (TBW) is reduced in adult GH deficiency (GHD) largely due to a reduction of extracellular water. It is unknown whether total blood volume (TBV) contributes to the reduced extracellular water in GHD. GH and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) have been demonstrated to stimulate erythropoiesis in vitro, in animal models, and in growing children. Whether GH has a regulatory effect on red cell mass (RCM) in adults is not known. We analyzed body composition by bioelectrical impedance and used standard radionuclide dilution methods to measure RCM and plasma volume (PV) along with measuring full blood count, ferritin, vitamin B12, red cell folate, IGF-I, IGF-binding protein-3, and erythropoietin in 13 adult patients with GHD as part of a 3-month, double blind, placebo-controlled trial of GH (0.036 U/kg.day). TBW and lean body mass significantly increased by 2.5 +/- 0.53 kg (mean +/- SEM; P < 0.004) and 3.4 +/- 0.73 kg (P < 0.004), respectively, and fat mass significantly decreased by 2.4 +/- 0.32 kg (P < 0.001) in the GH-treated group. The baseline RCM of all patients with GHD was lower than the predicted normal values (1635 +/- 108 vs. 1850 +/- 104 mL; P < 0.002). GH significantly increased RCM, PV, and TBV by 183 +/- 43 (P < 0.006), 350 +/- 117 (P < 0.03), and 515 +/- 109 (P < 0.004) mL, respectively. The red cell count increased by 0.36 +/- 0.116 x 10(12)/L (P < 0.03) with a decrease in ferritin levels by 39.1 +/- 4.84 micrograms/L (P < 0.001) after GH treatment. Serum IGF-I and IGF-binding protein-3 concentrations increased by 3.0 +/- 0.43 (P < 0.001) and 1.3 +/- 0.15 (P < 0.001) SD, respectively, but the erythropoietin concentration was unchanged after GH treatment. No significant changes in body composition or blood volume were recorded in the placebo group. Significant positive correlations could be established between changes in TBW and TBV, lean body mass and TBV (r = 0.78; P < 0.04 and r = 0.77; P < 0.04, respectively), and a significant negative correlation existed between changes in fat mass and changes in TBV in the GH-treated group (r = -0.95; P < 0.02). We conclude that 1) erythropoiesis is impaired in GHD; 2) GH stimulates erythropoiesis in adult GHD; and 3) GH increases PV and TBV, which may contribute to the increased exercise performance seen in these patients.

Reference intervals for common carotid intima-media thickness measured with echotracking: relation with risk factors

AIMS Common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCIMT) is widely used as a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, given its predictive association with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The interpretation of CCIMT values has been hampered by the absence of reference values, however. We therefore aimed to establish reference intervals of CCIMT, obtained using the probably most accurate method at present (i.e. echotracking), to help interpretation of these measures. METHODS AND RESULTS We combined CCIMT data obtained by echotracking on 24 871 individuals (53% men; age range 15-101 years) from 24 research centres worldwide. Individuals without CVD, cardiovascular risk factors (CV-RFs), and BP-, lipid-, and/or glucose-lowering medication constituted a healthy sub-population (n = 4234) used to establish sex-specific equations for percentiles of CCIMT across age. With these equations, we generated CCIMT Z-scores in different reference sub-populations, thereby allowing for a standardized comparison between observed and predicted ('normal') values from individuals of the same age and sex. In the sub-population without CVD and treatment (n = 14 609), and in men and women, respectively, CCIMT Z-scores were independently associated with systolic blood pressure [standardized βs 0.19 (95% CI: 0.16-0.22) and 0.18 (0.15-0.21)], smoking [0.25 (0.19-0.31) and 0.11 (0.04-0.18)], diabetes [0.19 (0.05-0.33) and 0.19 (0.02-0.36)], total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio [0.07 (0.04-0.10) and 0.05 (0.02-0.09)], and body mass index [0.14 (0.12-0.17) and 0.07 (0.04-0.10)]. CONCLUSION We estimated age- and sex-specific percentiles of CCIMT in a healthy population and assessed the association of CV-RFs with CCIMT Z-scores, which enables comparison of IMT values for (patient) groups with different cardiovascular risk profiles, helping interpretation of such measures obtained both in research and clinical settings.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Evidence for selection on coloration in a Panamanian poison frog: a coalescent-based approach

Aim The strawberry poison frog, Oophaga pumilio, has undergone a remarkable radiation of colour morphs in the Bocas del Toro archipelago in Panama. This species shows extreme variation in colour and pattern between populations that have been geographically isolated for < 10,000 years. While previous research has suggested the involvement of divergent selection, to date no quantitative test has examined this hypothesis. Location Bocas del Toro archipelago, Panama. Methods We use a combination of population genetics, phylogeography and phenotypic analyses to test for divergent selection in coloration in O. pumilio. Tissue samples of 88 individuals from 15 distinct populations were collected. Using these data, we developed a gene tree using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) d-loop region. Using parameters derived from our mtDNA phylogeny, we predicted the coalescence of a hypothetical nuclear gene underlying coloration. We collected spectral reflectance and body size measurements on 94 individuals from four of the populations and performed a quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence. Results The mtDNA d-loop tree revealed considerable polyphyly across populations. Coalescent reconstructions of gene trees within population trees revealed incomplete genotypic sorting among populations. The quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence revealed complete lineage sorting by colour, but not by body size: populations showed non-overlapping variation in spectral reflectance measures of body coloration, while variation in body size did not separate populations. Simulations of the coalescent using parameter values derived from our empirical analyses demonstrated that the level of sorting among populations seen in colour cannot reasonably be attributed to drift. Main conclusions These results imply that divergence in colour, but not body size, is occurring at a faster rate than expected under neutral processes. Our study provides the first quantitative support for the claim that strong diversifying selection underlies colour variation in the strawberry poison frog.

Phenotypic novelty in experimental hybrids is predicted by the genetic distance between species of cichlid fish

Background: Transgressive segregation describes the occurrence of novel phenotypes in hybrids with extreme trait values not observed in either parental species. A previously experimentally untested prediction is that the amount of transgression increases with the genetic distance between hybridizing species. This follows from QTL studies suggesting that transgression is most commonly due to complementary gene action or epistasis, which become more frequent at larger genetic distances. This is because the number of QTLs fixed for alleles with opposing signs in different species should increase with time since speciation provided that speciation is not driven by disruptive selection. We measured the amount of transgression occurring in hybrids of cichlid fish bred from species pairs with gradually increasing genetic distances and varying phenotypic similarity. Transgression in multi-trait shape phenotypes was quantified using landmark-based geometric morphometric methods. Results: We found that genetic distance explained 52% and 78% of the variation in transgression frequency in F1 and F2 hybrids, respectively. Confirming theoretical predictions, transgression when measured in F2 hybrids, increased linearly with genetic distance between hybridizing species. Phenotypic similarity of species on the other hand was not related to the amount of transgression. Conclusion: The commonness and ease with which novel phenotypes are produced in cichlid hybrids between unrelated species has important implications for the interaction of hybridization with adaptation and speciation. Hybridization may generate new genotypes with adaptive potential that did not reside as standing genetic variation in either parental population, potentially enhancing a population's responsiveness to selection. Our results make it conceivable that hybridization contributed to the rapid rates of phenotypic evolution in the large and rapid adaptive radiations of haplochromine cichlids.

Development of Values after Compulsory School: Work comes first, then family

During school-to-work transition, adolescents develop values and prioritize what is im-portant in their life. Values are concepts or beliefs about desirable states or behaviors that guide the selection or evaluation of behavior and events, and are ordered by their relative importance (Schwartz & Bilsky, 1987). Stressing the important role of values, career re-search has intensively studied the effect of values on educational decisions and early career development (e.g. Eccles, 2005; Hirschi, 2010; Rimann, Udris, & Weiss, 2000). Few re-searchers, however, have investigated so far how values develop in the early career phase and how value trajectories are influenced by individual characteristics. Values can be oriented towards specific life domains, such as work or family. Work values include intrinsic and extrinsic aspects of work (e.g., self-development, cooperation with others, income) (George & Jones, 1997). Family values include the importance of partner-ship, the creation of an own family and having children (Mayer, Kuramschew, & Trommsdroff, 2009). Research indicates that work values change considerably during early career development (Johnson, 2001; Lindsay & Knox, 1984). Individual differences in work values and value trajectories are found e.g., in relation to gender (Duffy & Sedlacek, 2007), parental background (Loughlin & Barling, 2001), personality (Lowry et al., 2012), educa-tion (Battle, 2003), and the anticipated timing of school-to-work transition (Porfeli, 2007). In contrast to work values, research on family value trajectories is rare and knowledge about the development during the school-to-work transition and early career development is lack-ing. This paper aims at filling this research gap. Focusing on family values and intrinsic work values and we expect a) family and work val-ues to change between ages 16 and 25, and b) that initial levels of family and work values as well as value change to be predicted by gender, reading literacy, ambition, and expected du-ration of education. Method. Using data from 2620 young adults (59.5% females), who participated in the Swiss longitudinal study TREE, latent growth modeling was employed to estimate the initial level and growth rate per year for work and family values. Analyses are based on TREE-waves 1 (year 2001, first year after compulsory school) to 8 (year 2010). Variables in the models included family values and intrinsic work values, gender, reading literacy, ambition and ex-pected duration of education. Language region was included as control variable. Results. Family values did not change significantly over the first four years after leaving compulsory school (mean slope = -.03, p =.36). They increased, however, significantly five years after compulsory school (mean slope = .13, p >.001). Intercept (.23, p < .001), first slope (.02, p < .001), and second slope (.01, p < .001) showed significant variance. Initial levels were higher for men and those with higher ambitions. Increases were found to be steeper for males as well as for participants with lower educational duration expectations and reading skills. Intrinsic work values increased over the first four years (mean slope =.03, p <.05) and showed a tendency to decrease in the years five to ten (mean slope = -.01, p < .10). Intercept (.21, p < .001), first slope (.01, p < .001), and second slope (.01, p < .001) showed signifi-cant variance, meaning that there are individual differences in initial levels and growth rates. Initial levels were higher for females, and those with higher ambitions, expecting longer educational pathways, and having lower reading skills. Growth rates were lower for the first phase and steeper for the second phase for males compared to females. Discussion. In general, results showed different patterns of work and family value trajecto-ries, and different individual factors related to initial levels and development after compul-sory school. Developments seem to fit to major life and career roles: in the first years after compulsory school young adults may be engaged to become established in one's job; later on, raising a family becomes more important. That we found significant gender differences in work and family trajectories may reflect attempts to overcome traditional roles, as over-all, women increase in work values and men increase in family values, resulting in an over-all trend to converge.

Work values as predictors of entrepreneurial career intentions: A longitudinal analysis of gender effects.

Purpose – Work values are an important characteristic to understand gender differences in career intentions, but how gender affects the relationship between values and career intentions is not well established. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether gender moderates the effects of work values on level and change of entrepreneurial intentions (EI). Design/methodology/approach – In total, 218 German university students were sampled regarding work values and with EI assessed three times over the course of 12 months. Data were analysed with latent growth modelling. Findings – Self‐enhancement and openness to change values predicted higher levels and conservation values lower levels of EI. Gender moderated the effects of enhancement and conservation values on change in EI. Research limitations/implications – The authors relied on self‐reported measures and the sample was restricted to university students. Future research needs to verify to what extent these results generalize to other samples and different career fields, such as science or nursing. Practical implications – The results imply that men and women are interested in an entrepreneurial career based on the same work values but that values have different effects for men and women regarding individual changes in EI. The results suggest that the prototypical work values of a career domain seem important regarding increasing the career intent for the gender that is underrepresented in that domain. Originality/value – The results enhance understanding of how gender affects the relation of work values and a specific career intention, such as entrepreneurship.