Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry for measuring total bone mineral content in the rat: study of accuracy and precision

Sequential studies of osteopenic bone disease in small animals require the availability of non-invasive, accurate and precise methods to assess bone mineral content (BMC) and bone mineral density (BMD). Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which is currently used in humans for this purpose, can also be applied to small animals by means of adapted software. Precision and accuracy of DXA was evaluated in 10 rats weighing 50-265 g. The rats were anesthetized with a mixture of ketamine-xylazine administrated intraperitoneally. Each rat was scanned six times consecutively in the antero-posterior incidence after repositioning using the rat whole-body software for determination of whole-body BMC and BMD (Hologic QDR 1000, software version 5.52). Scan duration was 10-20 min depending on rat size. After the last measurement, rats were sacrificed and soft tissues were removed by dermestid beetles. Skeletons were then scanned in vitro (ultra high resolution software, version 4.47). Bones were subsequently ashed and dissolved in hydrochloric acid and total body calcium directly assayed by atomic absorption spectrophotometry (TBCa[chem]). Total body calcium was also calculated from the DXA whole-body in vivo measurement (TBCa[DXA]) and from the ultra high resolution measurement (TBCa[UH]) under the assumption that calcium accounts for 40.5% of the BMC expressed as hydroxyapatite. Precision error for whole-body BMC and BMD (mean +/- S.D.) was 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Simple regression analysis between TBCa[DXA] or TBCa[UH] and TBCa[chem] revealed tight correlations (n = 0.991 and 0.996, respectively), with slopes and intercepts which were significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Improving accuracy and precision of ice core δD(CH4) analyses using methane pre-pyrolysis and hydrogen post-pyrolysis trapping and subsequent chromatographic separation

Firn and polar ice cores offer the only direct palaeoatmospheric archive. Analyses of past greenhouse gas concentrations and their isotopic compositions in air bubbles in the ice can help to constrain changes in global biogeochemical cycles in the past. For the analysis of the hydrogen isotopic composition of methane (δD(CH4) or δ2H(CH4)) 0.5 to 1.5 kg of ice was hitherto used. Here we present a method to improve precision and reduce the sample amount for δD(CH4) measurements in (ice core) air. Pre-concentrated methane is focused in front of a high temperature oven (pre-pyrolysis trapping), and molecular hydrogen formed by pyrolysis is trapped afterwards (post-pyrolysis trapping), both on a carbon-PLOT capillary at −196 °C. Argon, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, unpyrolysed methane and krypton are trapped together with H2 and must be separated using a second short, cooled chromatographic column to ensure accurate results. Pre- and post-pyrolysis trapping largely removes the isotopic fractionation induced during chromatographic separation and results in a narrow peak in the mass spectrometer. Air standards can be measured with a precision better than 1‰. For polar ice samples from glacial periods, we estimate a precision of 2.3‰ for 350 g of ice (or roughly 30 mL – at standard temperature and pressure (STP) – of air) with 350 ppb of methane. This corresponds to recent tropospheric air samples (about 1900 ppb CH4) of about 6 mL (STP) or about 500 pmol of pure CH4.

Basic symptoms and ultrahigh risk criteria: symptom development in the initial prodromal state

Symptom development during the prodromal phase of psychosis was explored retrospectively in first-episode psychosis patients with special emphasis on the assumed time-related syndromic sequence of "unspecific symptoms (UN)-predictive basic symptoms (BS)-attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS)-(transient) psychotic symptoms (PS)." Onset of syndromes was defined by first occurrence of any of their respective symptoms. Group means were inspected for time differences between syndromes and influence of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics on the recalled sequence. The sequence of "UN-BS/APS-PS" was clearly supported, and both BS and, though slightly less, APS were highly sensitive. However, onset of BS and APS did not show significant time difference in the whole sample (N = 126; 90% schizophrenia), although when each symptom is considered independently, APS tended to occur later than first predictive BS. On descriptive level, about one-third each recalled an earlier, equal and later onset of BS compared with APS. Level of education showed the greatest impact on the recall of the hypothesized sequence. Thereby, those with a higher school-leaving certificate supported the assumed sequence, whereas those of low educational background retrospectively dated APS before BS. These findings rather point out recognition and recall bias inherent to the retrospective design than true group characteristics. Future long-term prospective studies will have to explore this conclusively. However, as regards the criteria, the results support the notion of BS as at least a complementary approach to the ultrahigh risk criteria, which may also allow for an earlier detection of psychosis.

[Interventional pain management, indications and results]

When conservative treatment modalities provide inadequate relief, interventional techniques play an important role in the management of chronic pain patients. They are performed in diagnostic or therapeutic intention (or both) and either directly target the pain generating anatomic structure (e.g. intraarticular joint injections) or the neural structures which are thought to mediate the experience of pain (e.g. facet joint nerve blocks, spinal cord stimulation). In order to enhance precision and patient safety, these interventions are performed with image guidance; of which fluoroscopy is the most commonly used technique. CT- or Ultrasound-guided techniques are also performed. This article is an overview of the indications and results of the most commonly performed interventional techniques used in chronic pain treatment with focus on spinal interventional procedures.

A new system for computer-aided preoperative planning and intraoperative navigation during corrective jaw surgery

A new system for computer-aided corrective surgery of the jaws has been developed and introduced clinically. It combines three-dimensional (3-D) surgical planning with conventional dental occlusion planning. The developed software allows simulating the surgical correction on virtual 3-D models of the facial skeleton generated from computed tomography (CT) scans. Surgery planning and simulation include dynamic cephalometry, semi-automatic mirroring, interactive cutting of bone and segment repositioning. By coupling the software with a tracking system and with the help of a special registration procedure, we are able to acquire dental occlusion plans from plaster model mounts. Upon completion of the surgical plan, the setup is used to manufacture positioning splints for intraoperative guidance. The system provides further intraoperative assistance with the help of a display showing jaw positions and 3-D positioning guides updated in real time during the surgical procedure. The proposed approach offers the advantages of 3-D visualization and tracking technology without sacrificing long-proven cast-based techniques for dental occlusion evaluation. The system has been applied on one patient. Throughout this procedure, we have experienced improved assessment of pathology, increased precision, and augmented control.

[New insights into diagnosis and management of gestational diabetes mellitus: recommendations of the Swiss Society for Endocrinology and Diabetes]

Physiology and current knowledge about gestational diabetes which led to the adoption of new diagnostic criterias and blood glucose target levels during pregnancy by the Swiss Society for Endocrinology and Diabetes are reviewed. The 6th International Workshop Conference on Gestational Diabetes mellitus in Pasedena (2008) defined new diagnostic criteria based on the results of the HAPO-Trial. These criteria were during the ADA congress in New Orleans in 2009 presented. According to the new criteria there is no need for screening, but all pregnant women have to be tested with a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test between the 24th and 28th week of pregnancy. The new diagnostic values are very similar to the ones previously adopted by the ADA with the exception that only one out of three values has to be elevated in order to make the diagnosis of gestational diabetes. Due to this important difference it is very likely that gestational diabetes will be diagnosed more frequently in the future. The diagnostic criteria are: Fasting plasma glucose > or = 5.1 mmol/l, 1-hour value > or = 10.0 mmol/l or 2-hour value > or = 8.5 mmol/l. Based on current knowledge and randomized trials it is much more difficult to define glucose target levels during pregnancy. This difficulty has led to many different recommendations issued by diabetes societies. The Swiss Society of Endocrinology and Diabetes follows the arguments of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) that self-blood glucose monitoring itself lacks precision and that there are very few randomized trials. Therefore, the target levels have to be easy to remember and might be slightly different in mmol/l or mg/dl. The Swiss Society for Endocrinology and Diabetes adopts the tentative target values of the IDF with fasting plasma glucose values < 5.3 mM and 1- and 2-hour postprandial (after the end of the meal) values of < 8.0 and 7.0 mmol/l, respectively. The last part of these recommendations deals with the therapeutic options during pregnancy (nutrition, physical exercise and pharmaceutical treatment). If despite lifestyle changes the target values are not met, approximately 25 % of patients have to be treated pharmaceutically. Insulin therapy is still the preferred treatment option, but metformin (and as an exception glibenclamide) can be used, if there are major hurdles for the initiation of insulin therapy.

Stress effects on working memory, explicit memory, and implicit memory for neutral and emotional stimuli in healthy men

Stress is a strong modulator of memory function. However, memory is not a unitary process and stress seems to exert different effects depending on the memory type under study. Here, we explored the impact of social stress on different aspects of human memory, including tests for explicit memory and working memory (for neutral materials), as well as implicit memory (perceptual priming, contextual priming and classical conditioning for emotional stimuli). A total of 35 young adult male students were randomly assigned to either the stress or the control group, with stress being induced by the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Salivary cortisol levels were assessed repeatedly throughout the experiment to validate stress effects. The results support previous evidence indicating complex effects of stress on different types of memory: A pronounced working memory deficit was associated with exposure to stress. No performance differences between groups of stressed and unstressed subjects were observed in verbal explicit memory (but note that learning and recall took place within 1 h and immediately following stress) or in implicit memory for neutral stimuli. Stress enhanced classical conditioning for negative but not positive stimuli. In addition, stress improved spatial explicit memory. These results reinforce the view that acute stress can be highly disruptive for working memory processing. They provide new evidence for the facilitating effects of stress on implicit memory for negative emotional materials. Our findings are discussed with respect to their potential relevance for psychiatric disorders, such as post traumatic stress disorder.

Assigning Bug Reports using a Vocabulary-Based Expertise Model of Developers

For popular software systems, the number of daily submitted bug reports is high. Triaging these incoming reports is a time consuming task. Part of the bug triage is the assignment of a report to a developer with the appropriate expertise. In this paper, we present an approach to automatically suggest developers who have the appropriate expertise for handling a bug report. We model developer expertise using the vocabulary found in their source code contributions and compare this vocabulary to the vocabulary of bug reports. We evaluate our approach by comparing the suggested experts to the persons who eventually worked on the bug. Using eight years of Eclipse development as a case study, we achieve 33.6\% top-1 precision and 71.0\% top-10 recall.

Determination of Ethyl glucuronide and Ethyl sulfate from dried blood spots

BACKGROUND: Ethyl glucuronide (EtG) and ethyl sulfate (EtS) are non-oxidative minor metabolites of ethanol. They are detectable in various body fluids shortly after initial consumption of ethanol and have a longer detection time frame than the parent compound. They are regarded highly sensitive and specific markers of recent alcohol uptake. This study evaluates the determination of EtG and EtS from dried blood spots (DBS), a simple and cost-effective sampling method that would shorten the time gap between offense and blood sampling and lead to a better reflectance of the actual impairment. METHODS: For method validation, EtG and EtS standard and quality control samples were prepared in fresh human heparinized blood and spotted on DBS cards, then extracted and measured by an LC-ESI-MS/MS method. Additionally, 76 heparinized blood samples from traffic offense cases were analyzed for EtG and EtS as whole blood and as DBS specimens. The results from these measurements were then compared by calculating the respective mean values, by a matched-paired t test, by a Wilcoxon test, and by Bland-Altman and Mountain plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Calibrations for EtG and EtS in DBS were linear over the studied calibration range. The precision and accuracy of the method met the requirements of the validation guidelines that were employed in the study. The stability of the biomarkers stored as DBS was demonstrated under different storage conditions. The t test showed no significant difference between whole blood and DBS in the determination of EtG and EtS. In addition, the Bland-Altman analysis and Mountain plot confirmed that the concentration differences that were measured in DBS specimens were not relevant.

A comparison of estimated glomerular filtration rates using Cockcroft−Gault and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration estimating equations in HIV infection

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)- or Cockcroft-Gault (CG)-based estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) performs better in the cohort setting for predicting moderate/advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS: A total of 9521 persons in the EuroSIDA study contributed 133 873 eGFRs. Poisson regression was used to model the incidence of moderate and advanced CKD (confirmed eGFR < 60 and < 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , respectively) or ESRD (fatal/nonfatal) using CG and CKD-EPI eGFRs. RESULTS: Of 133 873 eGFR values, the ratio of CG to CKD-EPI was ≥ 1.1 in 22 092 (16.5%) and the difference between them (CG minus CKD-EPI) was ≥ 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in 20 867 (15.6%). Differences between CKD-EPI and CG were much greater when CG was not standardized for body surface area (BSA). A total of 403 persons developed moderate CKD using CG [incidence 8.9/1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU); 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.0-9.8] and 364 using CKD-EPI (incidence 7.3/1000 PYFU; 95% CI 6.5-8.0). CG-derived eGFRs were equal to CKD-EPI-derived eGFRs at predicting ESRD (n = 36) and death (n = 565), as measured by the Akaike information criterion. CG-based moderate and advanced CKDs were associated with ESRD [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 7.17; 95% CI 2.65-19.36 and aIRR 23.46; 95% CI 8.54-64.48, respectively], as were CKD-EPI-based moderate and advanced CKDs (aIRR 12.41; 95% CI 4.74-32.51 and aIRR 12.44; 95% CI 4.83-32.03, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Differences between eGFRs using CG adjusted for BSA or CKD-EPI were modest. In the absence of a gold standard, the two formulae predicted clinical outcomes with equal precision and can be used to estimate GFR in HIV-positive persons.

Repeatability analysis of global and local metrics of brain structural networks

Computational network analysis provides new methods to analyze the human connectome. Brain structural networks can be characterized by global and local metrics that recently gave promising insights for diagnosis and further understanding of neurological, psychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. In order to ensure the validity of results in clinical settings the precision and repeatability of the networks and the associated metrics must be evaluated. In the present study, nineteen healthy subjects underwent two consecutive measurements enabling us to test reproducibility of the brain network and its global and local metrics. As it is known that the network topology depends on the network density, the effects of setting a common density threshold for all networks were also assessed. Results showed good to excellent repeatability for global metrics, while for local metrics it was more variable and some metrics were found to have locally poor repeatability. Moreover, between subjects differences were slightly inflated when the density was not fixed. At the global level, these findings confirm previous results on the validity of global network metrics as clinical biomarkers. However, the new results in our work indicate that the remaining variability at the local level as well as the effect of methodological characteristics on the network topology should be considered in the analysis of brain structural networks and especially in networks comparisons.