Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Risk management at board level: a practical guide for board members

isk Management today has moved from being the topic of top level conferences and media discussions to being a permanent issue in the board and top management agenda. Several new directives and regulations in Switzerland, Germany and EU make it obligatory for the firms to have a risk management strategy and transparently disclose the risk management process to their stakeholders. Shareholders, insurance providers, banks, media, analysts, employees, suppliers and other stakeholders expect the board members to be pro-active in knowing the critical risks facing their organization and provide them with a reasonable assurance vis-à-vis the management of those risks. In this environment however, the lack of standards and training opportunities makes this task difficult for board members. This book with the help of real life examples, analysis of drivers, interpretation of the Swiss legal requirements, and information based on international benchmarks tries to reach out to the forward looking leaders of today's businesses. The authors have collectively brought their years of scientific and practical experience in risk management, Swiss law and board memberships together to provide the board members practical solutions in risk management. The desire is that this book will clear the fear regarding risk management from the minds of the company leadership and help them in making risk savvy decisions in quest to achieve their strategic objectives.

Repair of Annulus fibrosus with Genipin-enhanced Fibrin Hydrogel and silk membrane- fleece

Introduction Low back pain is often caused by a trauma causing disc herniation and /or disc degeneration. Although there are some promising approaches for nucleus pulposus repair, the inner tissue of the intervertebral disc (IVD) so far no treatment or repair is available for annulus fibrosus (AF) injuries. Here we aimed to develop a new method to seal and repair AF injuries by using a silk fleece composite and a genipin enhanced hydrogel. Methods Bovine (b) IVDs were harvested under aseptic conditions and kept in free swelling conditions for 24h in high-glucose DMEM containing 5% bovine serum for equilibration (1). A circular 2mm biopsy punch (Polymed Medical Center, Switzerland) was used to form a reproducible defect in the AF. For filling the defect and keeping the silk composite in place a human-derived fibrin gel (Baxter Tisseel, Switzerland) enhanced with 4.2mg/ml of the cross linker genipin (Wako Chemicals GmbH, Germany) was used. The silk composite consists of a mesh- and a membrane side (Spintec Engineering GmbH, Germany); the membrane is facing outwards to form a seal. bIVDs were cultured in vitro for 14 days either under dynamic load in a custom-built bioreactor under physiological conditions (0.2MPa load and ±2° torsion at 0.2Hz for 8h/day) or static diurnal load of 0.2MPa (2). At the end of culture discs were checked for seal failure, disc height, metabolic activity, cell death by necrosis (LDH assay), DNA content and glycosaminoglycan content. Results Silk composite maintained its position throughout the 14 days of culture under loaded conditions. Although repaired discs performed slightly lower in cell activity, DNA and GAG content were in the range of the control. Also LDH resulted in similar values compared to control discs (Fig 1). Height loss in repaired discs was in the same range as for static diurnal loaded control samples. For dynamically loaded samples the decrease was comparable to the injured, unrepaired discs. Fig 1 LDH of repaired discs compared to control disc after 24h in free swelling conditions for equilibration and first three loading cycles. Conclusions Silk-genipin-fibrin reinforced hydrogel is a promising approach to close AF defects as tested by two degree of freedom loading. In further experiments cytocompatibility of genipin has to be investigated. References 1. Chan SC, Gantenbein-Ritter B. Preparation of intact bovine tail intervertebral discs for organ culture. J Vis Exp 2012, Feb 2;60(60):e3490. 2. Walser J, Ferguson SJ, Gantenbein-Ritter B. Design of a mechanical loading device to culture intact bovine caudal motional segments of the spine under twisting motion. In: Davies J, editors. Replacing animal models: a practical guide to creating and using biomimetic alternatives. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.; 2012. p. 89-105. Acknowledgements This project is funded by the Gerbert Rüf Stiftung project # GRS-028/13 and the Swiss National Science Project SNF #310030_153411.