Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation

Data assimilation methods used for transient atmospheric state estimations in paleoclimatology such as covariance-based approaches, analogue techniques and nudging are briefly introduced. With applications differing widely, a plurality of approaches appears to be the logical way forward.

Range-based Weighted-likelihood Particle Filter for RSS-based Indoor Tracking

Attractive business cases in various application fields contribute to the sustained long-term interest in indoor localization and tracking by the research community. Location tracking is generally treated as a dynamic state estimation problem, consisting of two steps: (i) location estimation through measurement, and (ii) location prediction. For the estimation step, one of the most efficient and low-cost solutions is Received Signal Strength (RSS)-based ranging. However, various challenges - unrealistic propagation model, non-line of sight (NLOS), and multipath propagation - are yet to be addressed. Particle filters are a popular choice for dealing with the inherent non-linearities in both location measurements and motion dynamics. While such filters have been successfully applied to accurate, time-based ranging measurements, dealing with the more error-prone RSS based ranging is still challenging. In this work, we address the above issues with a novel, weighted likelihood, bootstrap particle filter for tracking via RSS-based ranging. Our filter weights the individual likelihoods from different anchor nodes exponentially, according to the ranging estimation. We also employ an improved propagation model for more accurate RSS-based ranging, which we suggested in recent work. We implemented and tested our algorithm in a passive localization system with IEEE 802.15.4 signals, showing that our proposed solution largely outperforms a traditional bootstrap particle filter.

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

The Moldable Debugger: A Framework for Developing Domain-Specific Debuggers

Debuggers are crucial tools for developing object-oriented software systems as they give developers direct access to the running systems. Nevertheless, traditional debuggers rely on generic mechanisms to explore and exhibit the execution stack and system state, while developers reason about and formulate domain-specific questions using concepts and abstractions from their application domains. This creates an abstraction gap between the debugging needs and the debugging support leading to an inefficient and error-prone debugging effort. To reduce this gap, we propose a framework for developing domain-specific debuggers called the Moldable Debugger. The Moldable Debugger is adapted to a domain by creating and combining domain-specific debugging operations with domain-specific debugging views, and adapts itself to a domain by selecting, at run time, appropriate debugging operations and views. We motivate the need for domain-specific debugging, identify a set of key requirements and show how our approach improves debugging by adapting the debugger to several domains.

Disentangling mental imagery and perceptual expectation

Mental imagery and perception are thought to rely on similar neural circuits, and many recent behavioral studies have attempted to demonstrate interactions between actual physical stimulation and sensory imagery in the corresponding sensory modality. However, there has been a lack of theoretical understanding of the nature of these interactions, and both interferential and facilitatory effects have been found. Facilitatory effects appear strikingly similar to those that arise due to experimental manipulations of expectation. Using a self-motion discrimination task, we try to disentangle the effects of mental imagery from those of expectation by using a hierarchical drift diffusion model to investigate both choice data and response times. Manipulations of expectation are reasonably well understood in terms of their selective influence on parameters of the drift diffusion model, and in this study, we make the first attempt to similarly characterize the effects of mental imagery. We investigate mental imagery within the computational framework of control theory and state estimation. • Mental imagery and perception are thought to rely on similar neural circuits; however, on more theoretical grounds, imagery seems to be closely related to the output of forward models (sensory predictions). • We reanalyzed data from a study of imagined self-motion. • Bayesian modeling of response times may allow us to disentangle the effects of mental imagery on behavior from other cognitive (top-down) effects, such as expectation.

EEG marker of inhibitory brain activity correlates with resting-state cerebral blood flow in the reward system in major depression

Frontal alpha band asymmetry (FAA) is a marker of altered reward processing in major depressive disorder (MDD), associated with reduced approach behavior and withdrawal. However, its association with brain metabolism remains unclear. The aim of this study is to investigate FAA and its correlation with resting – state cerebral blood flow (rCBF). We hypothesized an association of FAA with regional rCBF in brain regions relevant for reward processing and motivated behavior, such as the striatum. We enrolled 20 patients and 19 healthy subjects. FAA scores and rCBF were quantified with the use of EEG and arterial spin labeling. Correlations of the two were evaluated, as well as the association with FAA and psychometric assessments of motivated behavior and anhedonia. Patients showed a left – lateralized pattern of frontal alpha activity and a correlation of FAA lateralization with subscores of Hamilton Depression Rating Scale linked to motivated behavior. An association of rCBF and FAA scores was found in clusters in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex bilaterally (patients) and in the left medial frontal gyrus, in the right caudate head and in the right inferior parietal lobule (whole group). No correlations were found in healthy controls. Higher inhibitory right – lateralized alpha power was associated with lower rCBF values in prefrontal and striatal regions, predominantly in the right hemisphere, which are involved in the processing of motivated behavior and reward. Inhibitory brain activity in the reward system may contribute to some of the motivational problems observed in MDD.