Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Twenty questions with noise: Bayes optimal policies for entropy loss

We consider the problem of twenty questions with noisy answers, in which we seek to find a target by repeatedly choosing a set, asking an oracle whether the target lies in this set, and obtaining an answer corrupted by noise. Starting with a prior distribution on the target's location, we seek to minimize the expected entropy of the posterior distribution. We formulate this problem as a dynamic program and show that any policy optimizing the one-step expected reduction in entropy is also optimal over the full horizon. Two such Bayes optimal policies are presented: one generalizes the probabilistic bisection policy due to Horstein and the other asks a deterministic set of questions. We study the structural properties of the latter, and illustrate its use in a computer vision application.

Evaluation of radial distribution of cartilage degeneration and necessity of pre-contrast measurements using radial dGEMRIC in adults with acetabular dysplasia

Background The purpose of the present study was to investigate the radial distribution patterns of cartilage degeneration in dysplastic hips at different stages of secondary osteoarthritis (OA) by using radial delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of cartilage (dGEMRIC), and to assess whether pre-contrast measurements are necessary. Methods Thirty-five hips in 21 subjects (mean age ± SD, 27.6 ± 10.8 years) with acetabular dysplasia (lateral CE angle < 25°) were studied. Severity of OA was assessed on radiographs using Tönnis grading. Pre- (T1pre) and post-contrast T1 (T1Gd) values were measured at 7 sub-regions on radial reformatted slices acquired from a 3-dimensional (3D) T1 mapping sequence using a 1.5 T MR scanner. Values of radial T1pre, T1Gd and ΔR1 (1/T1Gd - 1/T1pre) of subgroups with different severity of OA were compared to those of the subgroup without OA using nonparametric tests, and bivariate linear Pearson correlations between radial T1Gd and ΔR1 were analyzed for each subgroup. Results Compared to the subgroup without OA, the subgroup with mild OA was observed with a significant decrease in T1Gd in the anterosuperior to superior sub-regions (mean, 476 ~ 507 ms, p = 0.026 ~ 0.042) and a significant increase in ΔR1 in the anterosuperior to superoposterior and posterior sub-regions (mean, 0.93 ~ 1.37 s-1, p = 0.012 ~ 0.042). The subgroup with moderate to severe OA was observed with a significant overall decrease in T1Gd (mean, 404 ~ 452 ms, p = 0.001 ~ 0.020) and an increase in ΔR1 (mean, 1.17 ~1.69 s-1, p = 0.001 ~ 0.020). High correlations were observed between radial T1Gd and ΔR1 for all subgroups (r = −0.869 ~ −0.944, p < 0.001). Conclusions Radial dGEMRIC without pre-contrast measurements is useful for evaluating different patterns of cartilage degeneration in the entire hip joint of patients with hip dysplasia, particularly for those in early stages of secondary OA.

Floral scents affect the distribution of hive bees around dancers

Floral scents are important information cues used to organize foraging-related tasks in honeybees. The waggle dance, apart from encoding spatial information about food sources, might facilitate the transfer of olfactory information by increasing the dissipation of volatiles brought back by successful foragers. By assuming that food scents are more intensive on specific body parts of returning foragers, i.e., the posterior legs of pollen foragers and mouthparts of nectar foragers, we quantified the interactions between hive mates and foragers during dances advertising different types of food sources. For natural sources, a higher proportion of hive mates contacted the hind legs of pollen dancers (where the pollen loads were located) with their heads compared to non-pollen dancers. On the other hand, the proportion of head-to-head contacts was higher for non-pollen foragers during the waggle runs. When the food scent was manipulated, dancers collecting scented sugar solution had a higher proportion of head-to-head contacts and a lower proportion around their hind legs compared to dancers collecting unscented solution. The presence of food odors did not affect in-hive behaviors of dancers, but it increased the number of trophallaxes in-between waggle runs (i.e., during circle phases). These results suggest that the honeybee dance facilitates the olfactory information transfer between incoming foragers and hive mates, and we propose that excitatory displays in other social insect species serve the same purpose. While recent empirical and theoretical findings suggested that the colony level foraging benefits of the spatial information encoded in the waggle dance vary seasonally and with habitats, the role of the dance as a compound signal not only indicating the presence of a profitable resource but also amplifying the information transfer regarding floral odors may be important under any ecological circumstances.

Neglect-like visual exploration behaviour after theta burst transcranial magnetic stimulation of the right posterior parietal cortex

The right posterior parietal cortex (PPC) is critically involved in visual exploration behaviour, and damage to this area may lead to neglect of the left hemispace. We investigated whether neglect-like visual exploration behaviour could be induced in healthy subjects using theta burst repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). To this end, one continuous train of theta burst rTMS was applied over the right PPC in 12 healthy subjects prior to a visual exploration task where colour photographs of real-life scenes were presented on a computer screen. In a control experiment, stimulation was also applied over the vertex. Eye movements were measured, and the distribution of visual fixations in the left and right halves of the screen was analysed. In comparison to the performance of 28 control subjects without stimulation, theta burst rTMS over the right PPC, but not the vertex, significantly decreased cumulative fixation duration in the left screen-half and significantly increased cumulative fixation duration in the right screen-half for a time period of 30 min. These results suggest that theta burst rTMS is a reliable method of inducing transient neglect-like visual exploration behaviour.

Distribution of intramyocellular lipids in human calf muscles as determined by MR spectroscopic imaging

In this study the distribution of intramyocellular lipids (IMCL) in human calf muscles was determined by 1H-MR spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) measurements. An obstacle for MRSI measurements in the calf, including different muscles, is the inevitable inclusion of regions with high concentrations of extramyocellular lipids (EMCL). This can lead to signal bleeding and consequently to unpredictable overlaps of IMCL resonances with EMCL in voxels of interest. The results of this study show that signal bleeding from EMCL can be substantially reduced in voxels from calf muscles by the application of a lipid extrapolation (LE) procedure (Haupt et al., Magn Reson Med 1996;35:678). The spectra of all voxels located within muscle tissue were fitted, and the metabolite values were assigned to one of 10 different muscles based on image segmentation. Significant IMCL differences between some muscles were obtained, with high values in m. soleus and two to three times lower values in the tibialis anterior, tibialis posterior, and gastrocnemius muscles. In addition to gross differences between muscles, significant intersubject differences were observed in both IMCL content and distribution over different muscles. A significant correlation between fiber orientation (obtained from orientation-dependent dipolar coupling of creatine and taurine resonances) and IMCL content was found, indicating that IMCL content is directly correlated to biomechanical properties.

Expanding the cone location and magnitude index to include corneal thickness and posterior surface information for the detection of keratoconus

PURPOSE To extend the capabilities of the Cone Location and Magnitude Index algorithm to include a combination of topographic information from the anterior and posterior corneal surfaces and corneal thickness measurements to further improve our ability to correctly identify keratoconus using this new index: ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. METHODS Three independent data sets were analyzed: 1 development and 2 validation. The AnteriorCornealPower index was calculated to stratify the keratoconus data from mild to severe. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm was applied to all tomography data collected using a dual Scheimpflug-Placido-based tomographer. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X formula, resulting from analysis of the Development set, was used to determine the logistic regression model that best separates keratoconus from normal and was applied to all data sets to calculate PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X. The sensitivity/specificity of PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X was compared with the original PercentProbabilityKeratoconus, which only uses anterior axial data. RESULTS The AnteriorCornealPower severity distribution for the combined data sets are 136 mild, 12 moderate, and 7 severe. The logistic regression model generated for ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X produces complete separation for the Development set. Validation Set 1 has 1 false-negative and Validation Set 2 has 1 false-positive. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for the logistic model produced using the ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X algorithm are 99.4% and 99.6%, respectively. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for using the original ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm are 89.2% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X provides a robust index that can detect the presence or absence of a keratoconic pattern in corneal tomography maps with improved sensitivity/specificity from the original anterior surface-only ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm.