Influence of the background wind on the local soil moisture-precipitation feedback

The importance of soil moisture anomalies on airmass convection over semiarid regions has been recognized in several studies. The underlying mechanisms remain partly unclear. An open question is why wetter soils can result in either an increase or a decrease of precipitation (positive or negative soil moisture–precipitation feedback, respectively). Here an idealized cloud-resolving modeling framework is used to explore the local soil moisture–precipitation feedback. The approach is able to replicate both positive and negative feedback loops, depending on the environmental parameters. The mechanism relies on horizontal soil moisture variations, which may develop and intensify spontaneously. The positive expression of the feedback is associated with the initiation of convection over dry soil patches, but the convective cells then propagate over wet patches where they strengthen and preferentially precipitate. The negative feedback may occur when the wind profile is too weak to support the propagation of convective features from dry to wet areas. Precipitation is then generally weaker and falls preferentially over dry patches. The results highlight the role of the midtropospheric flow in determining the sign of the feedback. A key element of the positive feedback is the exploitation of both low convective inhibition (CIN) over dry patches (for the initiation of convection) and high CAPE over wet patches (for the generation of precipitation).

Quality assurance of simulated patient feedback in communication training for fourth-year medical students

Introduction In our program, simulated patients (SPs) give feedback to medical students in the course of communication skills training. To ensure effective training, quality control of the SPs’ feedback should be implemented. At other institutions, medical students evaluate the SPs’ feedback for quality control (Bouter et al., 2012). Thinking about implementing quality control for SPs’ feedback in our program, we wondered whether the evaluation by students would result in the same scores as evaluation by experts. Methods Consultations simulated by 4th-year medical students with SPs were video taped including the SP’s feedback to the students (n=85). At the end of the training sessions students rated the SPs’ performance using a rating instrument called Bernese Assessment for Role-play and Feedback (BARF) containing 11 items concerning feedback quality. Additionally the videos were evaluated by 3 trained experts using the BARF. Results The experts showed a high interrater agreement when rating identical feedbacks (ICCunjust=0.953). Comparing the rating of students and experts, high agreement was found with regard to the following items: 1. The SP invited the student to reflect on the consultation first, Amin (= minimal agreement) 97% 2. The SP asked the student what he/she liked about the consultation, Amin = 88%. 3. The SP started with positive feedback, Amin = 91%. 4. The SP was comparing the student with other students, Amin = 92%. In contrast the following items showed differences between the rating of experts and students: 1. The SP used precise situations for feedback, Amax (=maximal agreement) 55%, Students rated 67 of SPs’ feedbacks to be perfect with regard to this item (highest rating on a 5 point Likert scale), while only 29 feedbacks were rated this way by the experts. 2. The SP gave precise suggestions for improvement, Amax 75%, 62 of SPs’ feedbacks obtained the highest rating from students, while only 44 of SPs’ feedbacks achieved the highest rating in the view of the experts. 3. The SP speaks about his/her role in the third person, Amax 60%. Students rated 77 feedbacks with the highest score, while experts judged only 43 feedbacks this way. Conclusion Although evaluation by the students was in agreement with that of experts concerning some items, students rated the SPs’ feedback more often with the optimal score than experts did. Moreover it seems difficult for students to notice when SPs talk about the role in the first instead of the third person. Since precision and talking about the role in the third person are important quality criteria of feedback, this result should be taken into account when thinking about students’ evaluation of SPs’ feedback for quality control. Bouter, S., E. van Weel-Baumgarten, and S. Bolhuis. 2012. Construction and Validation of the Nijmegen Evaluation of the Simulated Patient (NESP): Assessing Simulated Patients’ Ability to Role-Play and Provide Feedback to Students. Academic Medicine: Journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges

Valence and agency influence striatal response to feedback in patients with major depressive disorder

BACKGROUND: Reduced sensitivity to positive feedback is common in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). However, findings regarding negative feedback are ambiguous, with both exaggerated and blunted responses being reported. The ventral striatum (VS) plays a major role in processing valenced feedback, and previous imaging studies have shown that the locus of controls (self agency v. external agency) over the outcome influences VS response to feedback. We investigated whether attributing the outcome to one's own action or to an external agent influences feedback processing in patients with MDD. We hypothesized that depressed participants would be less sensitive to the feedback attribution reflected by an altered VS response to self-attributed gains and losses. METHODS: Using functional MRI and a motion prediction task, we investigated the neural responses to self-attributed (SA) and externally attributed (EA) monetary gains and losses in unmedicated patients with MDD and healthy controls. RESULTS: We included 21 patients and 25 controls in our study. Consistent with our prediction, healthy controls showed a VS response influenced by feedback valence and attribution, whereas in depressed patients striatal activity was modulated by valence but was insensitive to attribution. This attribution insensitivity led to an altered ventral putamen response for SA - EA losses in patients with MDD compared with healthy controls. LIMITATIONS: Depressed patients with comorbid anxiety disorder were included. CONCLUSION: These results suggest an altered assignment of motivational salience to SA losses in patients with MDD. Altered striatal response to SA negative events may reinforce the belief of not being in control of negative outcomes contributing to a cycle of learned helplessness.

PIN1-Independent Leaf Initiation in Arabidopsis

Phyllotaxis, the regular arrangement of leaves and flowers around the stem, is a key feature of plant architecture. Current models propose that the spatiotemporal regulation of organ initiation is controlled by a positive feedback loop between the plant hormone auxin and its efflux carrier PIN-FORMED1 (PIN1). Consequently, pin1 mutants give rise to naked inflorescence stalks with few or no flowers, indicating that PIN1 plays a crucial role in organ initiation. However, pin1 mutants do produce leaves. In order to understand the regulatory mechanisms controlling leaf initiation in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) rosettes, we have characterized the vegetative pin1 phenotype in detail. We show that although the timing of leaf initiation in vegetative pin1 mutants is variable and divergence angles clearly deviate from the canonical 137° value, leaves are not positioned at random during early developmental stages. Our data further indicate that other PIN proteins are unlikely to explain the persistence of leaf initiation and positioning during pin1 vegetative development. Thus, phyllotaxis appears to be more complex than suggested by current mechanistic models.

Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model

Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Isolated autosomal dominant growth hormone deficiency: stimulating mutant GH-1 gene expression drives GH-1 splice-site selection, cell proliferation, and apoptosis

The majority of mutations that cause isolated GH deficiency type II (IGHD II) affect splicing of GH-1 transcripts and produce a dominant-negative GH isoform lacking exon 3 resulting in a 17.5-kDa isoform, which further leads to disruption of the GH secretory pathway. A clinical variability in the severity of the IGHD II phenotype depending on the GH-1 gene alteration has been reported, and in vitro and transgenic animal data suggest that the onset and severity of the phenotype relates to the proportion of 17.5-kDa produced. The removal of GH in IGHD creates a positive feedback loop driving more GH expression, which may itself increase 17.5-kDa isoform productions from alternate splice sites in the mutated GH-1 allele. In this study, we aimed to test this idea by comparing the impact of stimulated expression by glucocorticoids on the production of different GH isoforms from wild-type (wt) and mutant GH-1 genes, relying on the glucocorticoid regulatory element within intron 1 in the GH-1 gene. AtT-20 cells were transfected with wt-GH or mutated GH-1 variants (5'IVS-3 + 2-bp T->C; 5'IVS-3 + 6 bp T->C; ISEm1: IVS-3 + 28 G->A) known to cause clinical IGHD II of varying severity. Cells were stimulated with 1 and 10 mum dexamethasone (DEX) for 24 h, after which the relative amounts of GH-1 splice variants were determined by semiquantitative and quantitative (TaqMan) RT-PCR. In the absence of DEX, only around 1% wt-GH-1 transcripts were the 17.5-kDa isoform, whereas the three mutant GH-1 variants produced 29, 39, and 78% of the 17.5-kDa isoform. DEX stimulated total GH-1 gene transcription from all constructs. Notably, however, DEX increased the amount of 17.5-kDa GH isoform relative to the 22- and 20-kDa isoforms produced from the mutated GH-1 variants, but not from wt-GH-1. This DEX-induced enhancement of 17.5-kDa GH isoform production, up to 100% in the most severe case, was completely blocked by the addition of RU486. In other studies, we measured cell proliferation rates, annexin V staining, and DNA fragmentation in cells transfected with the same GH-1 constructs. The results showed that that the 5'IVS-3 + 2-bp GH-1 gene mutation had a more severe impact on those measures than the splice site mutations within 5'IVS-3 + 6 bp or ISE +28, in line with the clinical severity observed with these mutations. Our findings that the proportion of 17.5-kDa produced from mutant GH-1 alleles increases with increased drive for gene expression may help to explain the variable onset progression, and severity observed in IGHD II.

11beta-Hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 in pregnancy and preeclampsia

Cortisol availability is controlled by 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 (11beta-HSD2), which inactivates cortisol in cortisone, unable to bind to the glucocorticoid receptor. The 11beta-HSD2 enzyme activity limits either intracellular cortisol concentrations or within the uteroplacental compartment the transfer of cortisol into the fetal circulation. Mechanisms, by which 11beta-HSD2 activity is controlled, include transcriptional control, posttranscriptional modifications of 11beta-HSD2 transcript half-life, epigenetic regulation via methylation of genomic DNA and direct inhibition of enzymatic activity. The 11beta-HSD2 expression and activity is reduced in preeclampsia and the enzyme activity correlates with factors associated with increased vasoconstriction, such as an increased angiotensin II receptor subtype 1 expression, and notably fetal growth. Numerous signals such as proinflammatory cytokines known to be present and/or elevated in preeclampsia regulate 11beta-HSD2 activity. Shallow trophoblast invasion with the resulting hypoxemia seems to critically reduce available 11beta-HSD2 activity. A positive feedback exists as activated glucocorticoid receptors do enhance 11beta-HSD2 mRNA transcription and mRNA stability. No data are currently available on pregnancy and either epigenetic or direct effects on the activity of the translated enzyme.

Do males matter? The role of males in population dynamics

Models of population dynamics generally neglect the presence of males. While this assumption holds under many circumstances, behavioural ecology increasingly tells us that the presence (or absence) of males may have an impact on female fitness, and hence population sizes. Here we ask the question of whether males matter to population dynamics, operationally defined as a dependency of population growth on the relative density of males. We provide simple models, and evaluate the current empirical evidence for them, that illustrate various mechanisms of such male influence: mate searching behavior, male resource use (including effects of sexual dimorphism), sexual harassment and sexual segregation. In each case, theory predicts that males can have an effect on population densities, and in some extreme cases a positive feedback between an increasingly male-biased sex ratio and the effects on female harassment may theoretically even bring about population extinction. The results of this study, and the literature reviewed, show that the males can have a substantial effect on population dynamics, particularly so when human influences result in biased sex ratios.

Is the Atlantic subpolar gyre bistable in comprehensive coupled climate models?

The Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is one of the main drivers of decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. Here we analyze its dynamics in pre-industrial control simulations of 19 different comprehensive coupled climate models. The analysis is based on a recently proposed description of the SPG dynamics that found the circulation to be potentially bistable due to a positive feedback mechanism including salt transport and enhanced deep convection in the SPG center. We employ a statistical method to identify multiple equilibria in time series that are subject to strong noise and analyze composite fields to assess whether the bistability results from the hypothesized feedback mechanism. Because noise dominates the time series in most models, multiple circulation modes can unambiguously be detected in only six models. Four of these six models confirm that the intensification is caused by the positive feedback mechanism.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Inverse modelling of the 14C bomb pulse in stalagmites to constrain the dynamics of soil carbon cycling at selected European cave sites

The decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is temperature dependent, but its response to a future warmer climate remains equivocal. Enhanced rates of decomposition of SOM under increased global temperatures might cause higher CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, and could therefore constitute a strong positive feedback. The magnitude of this feedback however remains poorly understood, primarily because of the difficulty in quantifying the temperature sensitivity of stored, recalcitrant carbon that comprises the bulk (>90%) of SOM in most soils. In this study we investigated the effects of climatic conditions on soil carbon dynamics using the attenuation of the 14C ‘bomb’ pulse as recorded in selected modern European speleothems. These new data were combined with published results to further examine soil carbon dynamics, and to explore the sensitivity of labile and recalcitrant organic matter decomposition to different climatic conditions. Temporal changes in 14C activity inferred from each speleothem was modelled using a three pool soil carbon inverse model (applying a Monte Carlo method) to constrain soil carbon turnover rates at each site. Speleothems from sites that are characterised by semi-arid conditions, sparse vegetation, thin soil cover and high mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), exhibit weak attenuation of atmospheric 14C ‘bomb’ peak (a low damping effect, D in the range: 55–77%) and low modelled mean respired carbon ages (MRCA), indicating that decomposition is dominated by young, recently fixed soil carbon. By contrast, humid and high MAAT sites that are characterised by a thick soil cover and dense, well developed vegetation, display the highest damping effect (D = c. 90%), and the highest MRCA values (in the range from 350 ± 126 years to 571 ± 128 years). This suggests that carbon incorporated into these stalagmites originates predominantly from decomposition of old, recalcitrant organic matter. SOM turnover rates cannot be ascribed to a single climate variable, e.g. (MAAT) but instead reflect a complex interplay of climate (e.g. MAAT and moisture budget) and vegetation development.