Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and climate to explosive volcanic eruptions

Impacts of low-latitude, explosive volcanic eruptions on climate and the carbon cycle are quantified by forcing a comprehensive, fully coupled carbon cycle-climate model with pulse-like stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes. The model represents the radiative and dynamical response of the climate system to volcanic eruptions and simulates a decrease of global and regional atmospheric surface temperature, regionally distinct changes in precipitation, a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a decrease in atmospheric CO2 after volcanic eruptions. The volcanic-induced cooling reduces overturning rates in tropical soils, which dominates over reduced litter input due to soil moisture decrease, resulting in higher land carbon inventories for several decades. The perturbation in the ocean carbon inventory changes sign from an initial weak carbon sink to a carbon source. Positive carbon and negative temperature anomalies in subsurface waters last up to several decades. The multi-decadal decrease in atmospheric CO2 yields a small additional radiative forcing that amplifies the cooling and perturbs the Earth System on longer time scales than the atmospheric residence time of volcanic aerosols. In addition, century-scale global warming simulations with and without volcanic eruptions over the historical period show that the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds for different physical and biogeochemical parameters such as steric sea level or dissolved oxygen. Results from a suite of sensitivity simulations with different magnitudes of stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes and from global warming simulations show that the carbon cycle-climate sensitivity γ, expressed as change in atmospheric CO2 per unit change in global mean surface temperature, depends on the magnitude and temporal evolution of the perturbation, and time scale of interest. On decadal time scales, modeled γ is several times larger for a Pinatubo-like eruption than for the industrial period and for a high emission, 21st century scenario.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Surface uplift and climate change - the geomorphic evolution of the western escarpment of the Andes of northern Chile between the Miocene and present

The Western Escarpment of the Andes at 18.30°S (Arica area, northern Chile) is a classical example for a transient state in landscape evolution. This part of the Andes is characterized by the presence of >10,000 km2 plains that formed between the Miocene and the present, and >1500 m deeply incised valleys. Although processes in these valleys scale the rates of landscape evolution, determinations of ages of incision, and more importantly, interpretations of possible controls on valley formation have been controversial. This paper uses morphometric data and observations, stratigraphic information, and estimates of sediment yields for the time interval between ca. 7.5 Ma and present to illustrate that the formation of these valleys was driven by two probably unrelated components. The first component is a phase of base-level lowering with magnitudes of∼300–500 m in the Coastal Cordillera. This period of base-level change in the Arica area, that started at ca. 7.5 Ma according to stratigraphic data, caused the trunk streams to dissect headward into the plains. The headward erosion interpretation is based on the presence of well-defined knickzones in stream profiles and the decrease in valley widths from the coast toward these knickzones. The second component is a change in paleoclimate. This interpretation is based on (1) the increase in the size of the largest alluvial boulders (from dm to m scale) with distal sources during the last 7.5 m.y., and (2) the calculated increase in minimum fluvial incision rates of ∼0.2 mm/yr between ca. 7.5 Ma and 3 Ma to ∼0.3 mm/yr subsequently. These trends suggest an increase in effective water discharge for systems sourced in the Western Cordillera (distal source). During the same time, however, valleys with headwaters in the coastal region (local source) lack any evidence of fluvial incision. This implies that the Coastal Cordillera became hyperarid sometime after 7.5 Ma. Furthermore, between 7.5 Ma and present, the sediment yields have been consistently higher in the catchments with distal sources (∼15 m/m.y.) than in the headwaters of rivers with local sources (<7 m/m.y.). The positive correlation between sediment yields and the altitude of the headwaters (distal versus local sources) seems to reflect the effect of orographic precipitation on surface erosion. It appears that base-level change in the coastal region, in combination with an increase in the orographic effect of precipitation, has controlled the topographic evolution of the northern Chilean Andes.

Safety climate and its association with office type and team involvement in primary care

OBJECTIVE To assess differences in safety climate perceptions between occupational groups and types of office organization in primary care. METHODS Primary care physicians and nurses working in outpatient offices were surveyed about safety climate. Explorative factor analysis was performed to determine the factorial structure. Differences in mean climate scores between staff groups and types of office were tested. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine predictors for a 'favorable' safety climate. RESULTS 630 individuals returned the survey (response rate, 50%). Differences between occupational groups were observed in the means of the 'team-based error prevention'-scale (physician 4.0 vs. nurse 3.8, P < 0.001). Medical centers scored higher compared with single-handed offices and joint practices on the 'team-based error prevention'-scale (4.3 vs. 3.8 vs. 3.9, P < 0.001) but less favorable on the 'rules and risks'-scale (3.5 vs. 3.9 vs. 3.7, P < 0.001). Characteristics on the individual and office level predicted favorable 'team-based error prevention'-scores. Physicians (OR = 0.4, P = 0.01) and less experienced staff (OR 0.52, P = 0.04) were less likely to provide favorable scores. Individuals working at medical centers were more likely to provide positive scores compared with single-handed offices (OR 3.33, P = 0.001). The largest positive effect was associated with at least monthly team meetings (OR 6.2, P < 0.001) and participation in quality circles (OR 4.49, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Results indicate that frequent quality circle participation and team meetings involving all team members are effective ways to strengthen safety climate in terms of team-based strategies and activities in error prevention.

Is the Atlantic subpolar gyre bistable in comprehensive coupled climate models?

The Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is one of the main drivers of decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. Here we analyze its dynamics in pre-industrial control simulations of 19 different comprehensive coupled climate models. The analysis is based on a recently proposed description of the SPG dynamics that found the circulation to be potentially bistable due to a positive feedback mechanism including salt transport and enhanced deep convection in the SPG center. We employ a statistical method to identify multiple equilibria in time series that are subject to strong noise and analyze composite fields to assess whether the bistability results from the hypothesized feedback mechanism. Because noise dominates the time series in most models, multiple circulation modes can unambiguously be detected in only six models. Four of these six models confirm that the intensification is caused by the positive feedback mechanism.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Tree growth response along an elevational gradient: climate or genetics?

Environment and genetics combine to influence tree growth and should therefore be jointly considered when evaluating forest responses in a warming climate. Here, we combine dendroclimatology and population genetic approaches with the aim of attributing climatic influences on growth of European larch (Larix decidua) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). Increment cores and genomic DNA samples were collected from populations along a ~900-m elevational transect where the air temperature gradient encompasses a ~4 °C temperature difference. We found that low genetic differentiation among populations indicates gene flow is high, suggesting that migration rate is high enough to counteract the selective pressures of local environmental variation. We observed lower growth rates towards higher elevations and a transition from negative to positive correlations with growing season temperature upward along the elevational transect. With increasing elevation there was also a clear increase in the explained variance of growth due to summer temperatures. Comparisons between climate sensitivity patterns observed along this elevational transect with those from Larix and Picea sites distributed across the Alps reveal good agreement, and suggest that tree-ring width (TRW) variations are more climate-driven than genetics-driven at regional and larger scales. We conclude that elevational transects are an extremely valuable platform for understanding climatic-driven changes over time and can be especially powerful when working within an assessed genetic framework.

Safety climate in Swiss hospital units: Swiss version of the Safety Climate Survey

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES Safety climate measurements are a broadly used element of improvement initiatives. In order to provide a sound and easy-to-administer instrument for the use in Swiss hospitals, we translated the Safety Climate Survey into German and French. METHODS After translating the Safety Climate Survey into French and German, a cross-sectional survey study was conducted with health care professionals (HCPs) in operating room (OR) teams and on OR-related wards in 10 Swiss hospitals. Validity of the instrument was examined by means of Cronbach's alpha and missing rates of the single items. Item-descriptive statistics group differences and percentage of 'problematic responses' (PPR) were calculated. RESULTS 3153 HCPs completed the survey (response rate: 63.4%). 1308 individuals were excluded from the analyses because of a profession other than doctor or nurse or invalid answers (n = 1845; nurses = 1321, doctors = 523). Internal consistency of the translated Safety Climate Survey was good (Cronbach's alpha G erman  = 0.86; Cronbach's alpha F rench  = 0.84). Missing rates at item level were rather low (0.23-4.3%). We found significant group differences in safety climate values regarding profession, managerial function, work area and time spent in direct patient care. At item level, 14 out of 21 items showed a PPR higher than 10%. CONCLUSIONS Results indicate that the French and German translations of the Safety Climate Survey might be a useful measurement instrument for safety climate in Swiss hospital units. Analyses at item level allow for differentiating facets of safety climate into more positive and critical safety climate aspects.

Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services

– Swiss forests experience strong impacts under the CH2011 scenarios, partly even for the low greenhouse gas scenario RCP3PD. Negative impacts prevail in low-elevation forests, whereas mostly positive impacts are expected in high-elevation forests. – Major changes in the distribution of the two most important tree species, Norway spruce and European beech, are expected. Growth conditions for spruce improve in a broad range of scenarios at presently cool high-elevation sites with plentiful precipitation, but in the case of strong warming (A1B and A2) spruce and beech are at risk in large parts of the Swiss Plateau. – High elevation forests that are temperature-limited will show little change in species composition but an increase in biomass. In contrast, forests at low elevations in warm-dry inner-Alpine valleys are sensitive to even moderate warming and may no longer sustain current biomass and species. – Timber production potential, carbon storage, and protection from avalanches and rockfall react differently to climate change, with an overall tendency to deteriorate at low elevations, and improve at high elevations. – Climate change will affect forests also indirectly, e.g., by increasing the risk of infestation by spruce bark beetles, which will profit from an extended flight period and will produce more generations per year.

Variation in life-history traits and their plasticities to elevational transplantation among seed families suggests potential for adaptative evolution of 15 tropical plant species to climate change

• Premise of the study: Because not all plant species will be able to move in response to global warming, adaptive evolution matters largely for plant persistence. As prerequisites for adaptive evolution, genetic variation in and selection on phenotypic traits are needed, but these aspects have not been studied in tropical species. We studied how plants respond to transplantation to different elevations on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, and whether there is quantitative genetic (among-seed family) variation in and selection on life-history traits and their phenotypic plasticity to the different environments. • Methods: We reciprocally transplanted seed families of 15 common tropical, herbaceous species of the montane and savanna vegetation zone at Mt. Kilimanjaro to a watered experimental garden in the montane (1450 m) and in the savanna (880 m) zone at the mountain’s slope and measured performance, reproductive, and phenological traits. • Results: Plants generally performed worse in the savanna garden, indicating that the savanna climate was more stressful and thus that plants may suffer from future climate warming. We found significant quantitative genetic variation in all measured performance and reproductive traits in both gardens and for several measures of phenotypic plasticity in response to elevational transplantation. Moreover, we found positive selection on traits at low and intermediate trait values levelling to neutral or negative selection at high values. • Conclusions: We conclude that common plants at Mt. Kilimanjaro express quantitative genetic variation in fitness-relevant traits and in their plasticities, suggesting potential to adapt evolutionarily to future climate warming and increased temperature variability.

Psychological responses to the proximity of climate change

A frequent suggestion to increase individuals' willingness to take action on climate change and to support relevant policies is to highlight its proximal consequences, that is, those that are close in space and time. But previous studies that have tested this proximizing approach have not revealed the expected positive effects on individual action and support for addressing climate change. We present three lines of psychological reasoning that provide compelling arguments as to why highlighting proximal impacts of climate change might not be as effective a way to increase individual mitigation and adaptation efforts as is often assumed. Our contextualization of the proximizing approach within established psychological research suggests that, depending on the particular theoretical perspective one takes on this issue, and on specific individual characteristics suggested by these perspectives, proximizing can bring about the intended positive effects, can have no (visible) effect or can even backfire. Thus, the effects of proximizing are much more complex than is commonly assumed. Revealing this complexity contributes to a refined theoretical understanding of the role that psychological distance plays in the context of climate change and opens up further avenues for future research and for interventions.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.