Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Acute post-stroke blood pressure relative to premorbid levels in intracerebral haemorrhage versus major ischaemic stroke: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND It is often assumed that blood pressure increases acutely after major stroke, resulting in so-called post-stroke hypertension. In view of evidence that the risks and benefits of blood pressure-lowering treatment in acute stroke might differ between patients with major ischaemic stroke and those with primary intracerebral haemorrhage, we compared acute-phase and premorbid blood pressure levels in these two disorders. METHODS In a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK, we recruited all patients presenting with stroke between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2012. We compared all acute-phase post-event blood pressure readings with premorbid readings from 10-year primary care records in all patients with acute major ischaemic stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale >3) versus those with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. FINDINGS Of 653 consecutive eligible patients, premorbid and acute-phase blood pressure readings were available for 636 (97%) individuals. Premorbid blood pressure (total readings 13,244) had been measured on a median of 17 separate occasions per patient (IQR 8-31). In patients with ischaemic stroke, the first acute-phase systolic blood pressure was much lower than after intracerebral haemorrhage (158·5 mm Hg [SD 30·1] vs 189·8 mm Hg [38·5], p<0·0001; for patients not on antihypertensive treatment 159·2 mm Hg [27·8] vs 193·4 mm Hg [37·4], p<0·0001), was little higher than premorbid levels (increase of 10·6 mm Hg vs 10-year mean premorbid level), and decreased only slightly during the first 24 h (mean decrease from <90 min to 24 h 13·6 mm Hg). By contrast with findings in ischaemic stroke, the mean first systolic blood pressure after intracerebral haemorrhage was substantially higher than premorbid levels (mean increase of 40·7 mm Hg, p<0·0001) and fell substantially in the first 24 h (mean decrease of 41·1 mm Hg; p=0·0007 for difference from decrease in ischaemic stroke). Mean systolic blood pressure also increased steeply in the days and weeks before intracerebral haemorrhage (regression p<0·0001) but not before ischaemic stroke. Consequently, the first acute-phase blood pressure reading after primary intracerebral haemorrhage was more likely than after ischaemic stroke to be the highest ever recorded (OR 3·4, 95% CI 2·3-5·2, p<0·0001). In patients with intracerebral haemorrhage seen within 90 min, the highest systolic blood pressure within 3 h of onset was 50 mm Hg higher, on average, than the maximum premorbid level whereas that after ischaemic stroke was 5·2 mm Hg lower (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that systolic blood pressure is substantially raised compared with usual premorbid levels after intracerebral haemorrhage, whereas acute-phase systolic blood pressure after major ischaemic stroke is much closer to the accustomed long-term premorbid level, providing a potential explanation for why the risks and benefits of lowering blood pressure acutely after stroke might be expected to differ. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research.

Heritability of ambulatory and office blood pressure in the Swiss population

BACKGROUND Blood pressure (BP) is known to aggregate in families. Yet, heritability estimates are population-specific and no Swiss data have been published so far. We estimated the heritability of ambulatory and office BP in a Swiss population-based sample. METHODS The Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension is a population-based family study focusing on BP genetics. Office and ambulatory BP were measured in 1009 individuals from 271 nuclear families. Heritability was estimated for SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure using a maximum likelihood method implanted in the Statistical Analysis in Genetic Epidemiology software. RESULTS The 518 women and 491 men included in this analysis had a mean (±SD) age of 48.3 (±17.4) and 47.3 (±17.7) years, and a mean BMI of 23.8 (±4.2) and 25.9 (±4.1) kg/m, respectively. Narrow-sense heritability estimates (±standard error) for ambulatory SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.37 ± 0.07, 0.26 ± 0.07, and 0.29 ± 0.07 for 24-h BP; 0.39 ± 0.07, 0.28 ± 0.07, and 0.27 ± 0.07 for day BP; and 0.25 ± 0.07, 0.20 ± 0.07, and 0.30 ± 0.07 for night BP, respectively (all P < 0.001). Heritability estimates for office SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.21 ± 0.08, 0.25 ± 0.08, and 0.18 ± 0.07 (all P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS We found significant heritability estimates for both ambulatory and office BP in this Swiss population-based study. Our findings justify the ongoing search for the genetic determinants of BP.

CYP17A1 Enzyme Activity Is Linked to Ambulatory Blood Pressure in a Family-Based Population Study

BACKGROUND Genome-wide association studies have linked CYP17A1 coding for the steroid hormone synthesizing enzyme 17α-hydroxylase (CYP17A1) to blood pressure (BP). We hypothesized that the genetic signal may translate into a correlation of ambulatory BP (ABP) with apparent CYP17A1 activity in a family-based population study and estimated the heritability of CYP17A1 activity. METHODS In the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension, day and night urinary excretions of steroid hormone metabolites were measured in 518 participants (220 men, 298 women), randomly selected from the general population. CYP17A1 activity was assessed by 2 ratios of urinary steroid metabolites: one estimating the combined 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase activity (ratio 1) and the other predominantly 17α-hydroxylase activity (ratio 2). A mixed linear model was used to investigate the association of ABP with log-transformed CYP17A1 activities exploring effect modification by urinary sodium excretion. RESULTS Daytime ABP was positively associated with ratio 1 under conditions of high, but not low urinary sodium excretion (P interaction <0.05). Ratio 2 was not associated with ABP. Heritability estimates (SE) for day and night CYP17A1 activities were 0.39 (0.10) and 0.40 (0.09) for ratio 1, and 0.71 (0.09) and 0.55 (0.09) for ratio 2 (P values <0.001). CYP17A1 activities, assessed with ratio 1, were lower in older participants. CONCLUSIONS Low apparent CYP17A1 activity (assessed with ratio 1) is associated with elevated daytime ABP when salt intake is high. CYP17A1 activity is heritable and diminished in the elderly. These observations highlight the modifying effect of salt intake on the association of CYP17A1 with BP.

Reference values of mechanical and thermal pain tests in a pain-free population

Quantitative sensory tests are widely used in human research to evaluate the effect of analgesics and explore altered pain mechanisms, such as central sensitization. In order to apply these tests in clinical practice, knowledge of reference values is essential. The aim of this study was to determine the reference values of pain thresholds for mechanical and thermal stimuli, as well as withdrawal time for the cold pressor test in 300 pain-free subjects. Pain detection and pain tolerance thresholds to pressure, heat and cold were determined at three body sites: (1) lower back, (2) suprascapular region and (3) second toe (for pressure) or the lateral aspect of the leg (for heat and cold). The influences of gender, age, height, weight, body-mass index (BMI), body side of testing, depression, anxiety, catastrophizing and parameters of Short-Form 36 (SF-36) were analyzed by multiple regressions. Quantile regressions were performed to define the 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles as reference values for pain hypersensitivity and the 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles as reference values for pain hyposensitivity. Gender, age and/or the interaction of age with gender were the only variables that consistently affected the pain measures. Women were more pain sensitive than men. However, the influence of gender decreased with increasing age. In conclusion, normative values of parameters related to pressure, heat and cold pain stimuli were determined. Reference values have to be stratified by body region, gender and age. The determination of these reference values will now allow the clinical application of the tests for detecting abnormal pain reactions in individual patients.

Effect of immune pressure on hepatitis C virus evolution: insights from a single-source outbreak

The host's immune response to hepatitis C virus (HCV) can result in the selection of characteristic mutations (adaptations) that enable the virus to escape this response. The ability of the virus to mutate at these sites is dependent on the incoming virus, the fitness cost incurred by the mutation, and the benefit to the virus in escaping the response. Studies examining viral adaptation in chronic HCV infection have shown that these characteristic immune escape mutations can be observed at the population level as human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-specific viral polymorphisms. We examined 63 individuals with chronic HCV infection who were infected from a single HCV genotype 1b source. Our aim was to determine the extent to which the host's immune pressure affects HCV diversity and the ways in which the sequence of the incoming virus, including preexisting escape mutations, can influence subsequent mutations in recipients and infection outcomes. Conclusion: HCV sequences from these individuals revealed 29 significant associations between specific HLA types within the new hosts and variations within their viruses, which likely represent new viral adaptations. These associations did not overlap with previously reported adaptations for genotypes 1a and 3a and possibly reflected a combination of constraint due to the incoming virus and genetic distance between the strains. However, these sites accounted for only a portion of the sites in which viral diversity was observed in the new hosts. Furthermore, preexisting viral adaptations in the incoming (source) virus likely influenced the outcomes in the new hosts.

Pulmonary artery pressure and cardiac function in children and adolescents after rapid ascent to 3,450 m

High-altitude destinations are visited by increasing numbers of children and adolescents. High-altitude hypoxia triggers pulmonary hypertension that in turn may have adverse effects on cardiac function and may induce life-threatening high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE), but there are limited data in this young population. We, therefore, assessed in 118 nonacclimatized healthy children and adolescents (mean ± SD; age: 11 ± 2 yr) the effects of rapid ascent to high altitude on pulmonary artery pressure and right and left ventricular function by echocardiography. Pulmonary artery pressure was estimated by measuring the systolic right ventricular to right atrial pressure gradient. The echocardiography was performed at low altitude and 40 h after rapid ascent to 3,450 m. Pulmonary artery pressure was more than twofold higher at high than at low altitude (35 ± 11 vs. 16 ± 3 mmHg; P < 0.0001), and there existed a wide variability of pulmonary artery pressure at high altitude with an estimated upper 95% limit of 52 mmHg. Moreover, pulmonary artery pressure and its altitude-induced increase were inversely related to age, resulting in an almost twofold larger increase in the 6- to 9- than in the 14- to 16-yr-old participants (24 ± 12 vs. 13 ± 8 mmHg; P = 0.004). Even in children with the most severe altitude-induced pulmonary hypertension, right ventricular systolic function did not decrease, but increased, and none of the children developed HAPE. HAPE appears to be a rare event in this young population after rapid ascent to this altitude at which major tourist destinations are located.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.

Evolutionary forces shaping genomic islands of population differentiation in humans

Background Levels of differentiation among populations depend both on demographic and selective factors: genetic drift and local adaptation increase population differentiation, which is eroded by gene flow and balancing selection. We describe here the genomic distribution and the properties of genomic regions with unusually high and low levels of population differentiation in humans to assess the influence of selective and neutral processes on human genetic structure. Methods Individual SNPs of the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP) showing significantly high or low levels of population differentiation were detected under a hierarchical-island model (HIM). A Hidden Markov Model allowed us to detect genomic regions or islands of high or low population differentiation. Results Under the HIM, only 1.5% of all SNPs are significant at the 1% level, but their genomic spatial distribution is significantly non-random. We find evidence that local adaptation shaped high-differentiation islands, as they are enriched for non-synonymous SNPs and overlap with previously identified candidate regions for positive selection. Moreover there is a negative relationship between the size of islands and recombination rate, which is stronger for islands overlapping with genes. Gene ontology analysis supports the role of diet as a major selective pressure in those highly differentiated islands. Low-differentiation islands are also enriched for non-synonymous SNPs, and contain an overly high proportion of genes belonging to the 'Oncogenesis' biological process. Conclusions Even though selection seems to be acting in shaping islands of high population differentiation, neutral demographic processes might have promoted the appearance of some genomic islands since i) as much as 20% of islands are in non-genic regions ii) these non-genic islands are on average two times shorter than genic islands, suggesting a more rapid erosion by recombination, and iii) most loci are strongly differentiated between Africans and non-Africans, a result consistent with known human demographic history.

[Childhood's determinants for high blood pressure in adulthood]

Hypertension has been estimated to affect 20 - 25% of the adult population and represents an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease like coronary heart disease, stroke and peripheral artery occlusive disease. In addition, hypertension supports the development and progression of chronic kidney insufficiency. The interaction of multiple genetic and environmental factors are felt to influence the level of blood pressure. Epidemiological data in the sixties and seventies demonstrated a correlation between cardiovascular disease and infant mortality in the same population. In the late eighties Barker and coworkers described a strong correlation between low birth weight and increased risk for the development of cardiovascular complications. It has been supposed that factors influencing the intrauterine growth and development can lead to adult cardiovascular diseases, known as the concept of "fetal programming". Beside the effect of fetal programming, multiple (preventable and non-preventable) factors determine the blood pressure level in childhood, which will define adult blood pressure level through the blood pressure tracking from childhood to adulthood. Hence, the prevention of cardiovascular disease in adulthood begins in childhood through identification of preventable risk factors as for example obesity and passive smoking and recognition of risk groups like small for gestational age or preterm children.

Evidence of viral adaptation to HLA class I-restricted immune pressure in chronic hepatitis C virus infection

Cellular immune responses are an important correlate of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection outcome. These responses are governed by the host's human leukocyte antigen (HLA) type, and HLA-restricted viral escape mutants are a critical aspect of this host-virus interaction. We examined the driving forces of HCV evolution by characterizing the in vivo selective pressure(s) exerted on single amino acid residues within nonstructural protein 3 (NS3) by the HLA types present in two host populations. Associations between polymorphisms within NS3 and HLA class I alleles were assessed in 118 individuals from Western Australia and Switzerland with chronic hepatitis C infection, of whom 82 (69%) were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus. The levels and locations of amino acid polymorphisms exhibited within NS3 were remarkably similar between the two cohorts and revealed regions under functional constraint and selective pressures. We identified specific HCV mutations within and flanking published epitopes with the correct HLA restriction and predicted escaped amino acid. Additional HLA-restricted mutations were identified that mark putative epitopes targeted by cell-mediated immune responses. This analysis of host-virus interaction reveals evidence of HCV adaptation to HLA class I-restricted immune pressure and identifies in vivo targets of cellular immune responses at the population level.

Twenty years experience with an ileal orthotopic low pressure bladder substitute--lessons to be learned

PURPOSE: We present the long-term results of a large consecutive series of patients undergoing ileal orthotopic bladder substitution following radical cystectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between April 1985 and 2005 orthotopic bladder substitution with an ileal low pressure reservoir was performed in 482 patients (including 40 women) after radical and, if possible, nerve sparing cystectomy. In 447 cases the procedure was combined with an afferent ileal isoperistaltic tubular segment. The patients were followed prospectively. RESULTS: In the 482 patients 61 early (less than 30 days) diversion related complications requiring prolonged hospital stay or readmission were noted and 115 late complications required treatment. At 1 year continence was good in 92% of patients during the day and in 79% at night. At last followup 93% of patients could void spontaneously. Of 442 evaluable men 99 (22.4%) reported having erections without and 68 (15.4%) with medical assistance. Ureteroileal stenosis was observed in 12 of 447 (2.7%) patients. Urethral recurrence was detected in 25 of 482 (5%) patients. A total of 15 (5%) patients received vitamin B12 substitution. Renal parenchyma decreased only in patients with preoperative or postoperative ureteral obstruction. After 10 years patients with normal renal function had no long-term acidosis and in 20 patients the incidence of osteoporosis resembled that of the normal population. CONCLUSIONS: Ileal orthotopic bladder substitution combined with an afferent ileal tubular segment allows for good long-term functional results provided patients are restrictively selected, postoperative instructions are followed carefully, and typical complications such as outlet obstruction and hernias are treated early.

Ultrasound assessment of detrusor thickness in men-can it predict bladder outlet obstruction and replace pressure flow study?

PURPOSE: We estimated the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound detrusor thickness measurement for BOO and investigated whether this method can replace PFS for the diagnosis of BOO in some patients with lower urinary tract symptoms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Detrusor thickness was measured by linear ultrasound (7.5 MHz) at a filling volume of greater than 50% of cystometric capacity in 102 men undergoing PFS for LUTS. All patients with prior treatment for bladder outlet obstruction and those with underlying neurological disorders were excluded from analysis. Detrusor thickness was correlated with PFS data. Obstruction was defined according to the Abrams-Griffiths nomogram. RESULTS: Detrusor thickness was significantly higher (p <0.0001) in obstructed (61 cases, median detrusor thickness 2.7 mm, IQR 2.4 to 3.3) compared to unobstructed (18 cases, median detrusor thickness 1.7 mm, IQR 1.5 to 2) as well as equivocal (23 cases, median detrusor thickness 1.8 mm, IQR 1.5 to 2.2) cases. A weak to medium Spearman correlation was found between detrusor thickness and PFS parameters. For a diagnosis of BOO, detrusor thickness of 2.9 mm or greater had a positive predictive value of 100%, a negative predictive value of 54%, specificity of 100% and sensitivity of 43%. ROC analysis revealed that detrusor thickness had a high predictive value for BOO with an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: In men with LUTS without prior treatment and/or neurological disorders, ultrasonographically assessed detrusor thickness 2.9 mm or greater has a high predictive value for BOO and can replace PFS for the diagnosis of BOO. However, this cutoff value needs to be validated in a larger study population.

Effect of transcutaneous electrical muscle stimulation and passive cycling movements on blood pressure and removal of urea and phosphate during hemodialysis

BACKGROUND: Intradialytic exercise has been described to improve blood pressure stability and dialysis efficacy. However, comorbid conditions in the dialysis population often preclude the widespread use of active intradialytic exercise. Therefore, we investigated the effect of intradialytic transcutaneous muscle stimulation (TEMS) and passive cycling movements (PCMs) on blood pressure and dialysis efficacy in patients. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, controlled, randomized, crossover investigation. SETTING ; PARTICIPANTS: Ten patients were randomly allocated to TEMS, PCMs, or no intervention (NI) for 9 consecutive dialysis sessions. INTERVENTION: Participants were studied with NI, PCMs using a motor-driven ergometer, and bilateral TEMS of the leg musculature. Individual dialysis prescriptions were unchanged during the investigation. OUTCOMES ; MEASUREMENTS: The effect of TEMS and PCMs on blood pressure and dialysis efficacy in patients was assessed. RESULTS: Mean blood pressure increased from 121/64 +/- 21/15 mm Hg with NI to 132/69 +/- 21/15 mm Hg (P < 0.001) during sessions with PCMs and 125/66 +/- 22/16 mm Hg (P < 0.05) during sessions with TEMS. Urea and phosphate removal during dialysis were significantly (P < 0.001) greater with TEMS (19.4 +/- 3.7 g/dialysis and 1,197 +/- 265 mg/dialysis) or PCMs (20.1 +/- 3.4 g/dialysis and 1,172 +/- 315 mg/dialysis) than with NI (15.1 +/- 3.9 g/dialysis and 895 +/- 202 mg/dialysis). Body weight, ultrafiltration, Kt/V, and increases in hemoglobin and albumin levels during dialysis did not differ among the NI, PCMs, and TEMS groups. LIMITATIONS: The study design does not allow extension of the findings to prolonged treatment. CONCLUSION: Future studies during longer observation periods will have to prove the persistence of these acute findings. Both TEMS and PCMs deserve future investigations in dialysis patients because they increase intradialytic blood pressure and facilitate urea and phosphate removal when applied short term.

Divergent adaptation of hepatitis C virus genotypes 1 and 3 to human leukocyte antigen-restricted immune pressure

Many hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections worldwide are with the genotype 1 and 3 strains of the virus. Cellular immune responses are known to be important in the containment of HCV genotype 1 infection, and many genotype 1 T cell targets (epitopes) that are presented by host human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) have been identified. In contrast, there is almost no information known about the equivalent responses to genotype 3. Immune escape mechanisms used by HCV include the evolution of viral polymorphisms (adaptations) that abrogate this host-viral interaction. Evidence of HCV adaptation to HLA-restricted immune pressure on HCV can be observed at the population level as viral polymorphisms associated with specific HLA types. To evaluate the escape patterns of HCV genotypes 1 and 3, we assessed the associations between viral polymorphisms and specific HLA types from 187 individuals with genotype 1a and 136 individuals with genotype 3a infection. We identified 51 HLA-associated viral polymorphisms (32 for genotype 1a and 19 for genotype 3a). Of these putative viral adaptation sites, six fell within previously published epitopes. Only two HLA-associated viral polymorphisms were common to both genotypes. In the remaining sites with HLA-associated polymorphisms, there was either complete conservation or no significant HLA association with viral polymorphism in the alternative genotype. This study also highlights the diverse mechanisms by which viral evasion of immune responses may be achieved and the role of genotype variation in these processes. CONCLUSION: There is little overlap in HLA-associated polymorphisms in the nonstructural proteins of HCV for the two genotypes, implying differences in the cellular immune pressures acting on these viruses and different escape profiles. These findings have implications for future therapeutic strategies to combat HCV infection, including vaccine design.