26 resultados para Pooling of forecasts
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to investigate whether it is possible to pool together diffusion spectrum imaging data from four different scanners, located at three different sites. Two of the scanners had identical configuration whereas two did not. To measure the variability, we extracted three scalar maps (ADC, FA and GFA) from the DSI and utilized a region and a tract-based analysis. Additionally, a phantom study was performed to rule out some potential factors arising from the scanner performance in case some systematic bias occurred in the subject study. This work was split into three experiments: intra-scanner reproducibility, reproducibility with twin-scanner settings and reproducibility with other configurations. Overall for the intra-scanner and twin-scanner experiments, the region-based analysis coefficient of variation (CV) was in a range of 1%-4.2% and below 3% for almost every bundle for the tract-based analysis. The uncinate fasciculus showed the worst reproducibility, especially for FA and GFA values (CV 3.7-6%). For the GFA and FA maps, an ICC value of 0.7 and above is observed in almost all the regions/tracts. Looking at the last experiment, it was found that there is a very high similarity of the outcomes from the two scanners with identical setting. However, this was not the case for the two other imagers. Given the fact that the overall variation in our study is low for the imagers with identical settings, our findings support the feasibility of cross-site pooling of DSI data from identical scanners.
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Objective To examine the associations between pet keeping in early childhood and asthma and allergies in children aged 6–10 years. Design Pooled analysis of individual participant data of 11 prospective European birth cohorts that recruited a total of over 22,000 children in the 1990s. Exposure definition Ownership of only cats, dogs, birds, rodents, or cats/dogs combined during the first 2 years of life. Outcome definition Current asthma (primary outcome), allergic asthma, allergic rhinitis and allergic sensitization during 6–10 years of age. Data synthesis Three-step approach: (i) Common definition of outcome and exposure variables across cohorts; (ii) calculation of adjusted effect estimates for each cohort; (iii) pooling of effect estimates by using random effects meta-analysis models. Results We found no association between furry and feathered pet keeping early in life and asthma in school age. For example, the odds ratio for asthma comparing cat ownership with “no pets” (10 studies, 11489 participants) was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.28) (I2 = 9%; p = 0.36). The odds ratio for asthma comparing dog ownership with “no pets” (9 studies, 11433 participants) was 0.77 (0.58 to 1.03) (I2 = 0%, p = 0.89). Owning both cat(s) and dog(s) compared to “no pets” resulted in an odds ratio of 1.04 (0.59 to 1.84) (I2 = 33%, p = 0.18). Similarly, for allergic asthma and for allergic rhinitis we did not find associations regarding any type of pet ownership early in life. However, we found some evidence for an association between ownership of furry pets during the first 2 years of life and reduced likelihood of becoming sensitized to aero-allergens. Conclusions Pet ownership in early life did not appear to either increase or reduce the risk of asthma or allergic rhinitis symptoms in children aged 6–10. Advice from health care practitioners to avoid or to specifically acquire pets for primary prevention of asthma or allergic rhinitis in children should not be given.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: Meta-analysis of studies of the accuracy of diagnostic tests currently uses a variety of methods. Statistically rigorous hierarchical models require expertise and sophisticated software. We assessed whether any of the simpler methods can in practice give adequately accurate and reliable results. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed six methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy: four simple commonly used methods (simple pooling, separate random-effects meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity, separate meta-analyses of positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the Littenberg-Moses summary receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve) and two more statistically rigorous approaches using hierarchical models (bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and hierarchical summary ROC curve analysis). We applied the methods to data from a sample of eight systematic reviews chosen to illustrate a variety of patterns of results. RESULTS: In each meta-analysis, there was substantial heterogeneity between the results of different studies. Simple pooling of results gave misleading summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity in some meta-analyses, and the Littenberg-Moses method produced summary ROC curves that diverged from those produced by more rigorous methods in some situations. CONCLUSION: The closely related hierarchical summary ROC curve or bivariate models should be used as the standard method for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy.
Resumo:
Systematic reviews and meta-analyses allow for a more transparent and objective appraisal of the evidence. They may decrease the number of false-negative results and prevent delays in the introduction of effective interventions into clinical practice. However, as for any other tool, their misuse can result in severely misleading results. In this article, we discuss the main steps that should be taken when conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses, namely the preparation of a review protocol, identification of eligible trials, and data extraction, pooling of treatment effects across trials, investigation of potential reasons for differences in treatment effects across trials, and complete reporting of the review methods and findings. We also discuss common pitfalls that should be avoided, including the use of quality assessment tools to derive summary quality scores, pooling of data across trials as if they belonged to a single large trial, and inappropriate uses of meta-regression that could result in misleading estimates of treatment effects because of regression to the mean or the ecological fallacy. If conducted and reported properly, systematic reviews and meta-analyses will increase our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the available evidence, which may eventually facilitate clinical decision making.
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Natural antibodies (NA) specific for infectious pathogens are found at low titer (usually <1:40) in the serum of healthy, non-immunized, individuals. Therefore, NA are part of the first line of defence against blood borne microorganisms. They directly neutralize viral infections or lyse pathogens by activating the complement cascade. In addition, recent studies highlighted their role in the pooling of infectious pathogens and other antigens to the spleen. This prevents infection of vital target organs and enhances the induction of adaptive immune responses. Specific T and B-cell responses are exclusively induced in highly organized secondary lymphoid organs including lymph nodes and the spleen. As a consequence, mice with disrupted microorganisation of lymphoid organs have defective adaptive immunity. In addition, some pathogens including lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), Leishmania and HIV developed strategies to destroy the splenic architecture in order to induce an acquired immunosuppression and to establish persistent infection. NA antibodies enhance early neutralizing antibodies in the absence of T help mainly by targeting antigen to the splenic marginal zone. In addition, by activating the complement cascade, NA enhance T cell and T-cell dependent B-cell responses. Therefore, natural antibodies are an important link between innate and adaptive immunity.
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AIMS A better understanding of pelvic floor muscle (PFM) activation and strength components is a prerequisite to get better insight in PFM contraction mechanisms and develop more specific PFM-training regimens for female stress urinary incontinence (SUI) patients. The aim of this systematic review (2012:CRD42012002547) was to evaluate and summarize existing studies investigating PFM activation and strength components influencing female continence and SUI. METHODS PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were systematically searched for literature from January 1980 to November 2013 for cross-sectional studies comparing female SUI patients with healthy controls and intervention studies with SUI patients reporting on the association between PFM activation and strength components and urine loss. Trial characteristics, evaluated PFM components, their definitions, measurement methods, study outcomes, as well as quality measures, based on the Cochrane risk of bias tool, were independently extracted. The high heterogeneity of the retrieved data made pooling of results impossible and therefore restricted the analysis to a systematic review. RESULTS Cross-sectional studies showed group differences in favor of the continent women compared to SUI patients for PFM activation or PFM maximal strength, mean strength or sustained contraction. All intervention studies showed an improvement of PFM strength and decrease in urine loss in SUI patients after physical therapy. CONCLUSIONS Higher PFM activation and strength components influence female continence positively. This systematic review underscored the need for a standardized PFM components' terminology (similar to rehabilitation and training science), standardized test procedures and well matched diagnostic instruments. Neurourol. Urodynam. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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BACKGROUND Sutureless aortic valve replacement (SU-AVR) is an innovative approach which shortens cardiopulmonary bypass and cross-clamp durations and may facilitate minimally invasive approach. Evidence outlining its safety, efficacy, hemodynamic profile and potential complications is replete with small-volume observational studies and few comparative publications. METHODS Minimally invasive aortic valve surgery and high-volume SU-AVR replacement centers were contacted for recruitment into a global collaborative coalition dedicated to sutureless valve research. A Research Steering Committee was formulated to direct research and support the mission of providing registry evidence warranted for SU-AVR. RESULTS The International Valvular Surgery Study Group (IVSSG) was formed under the auspices of the Research Steering Committee, comprised of 36 expert valvular surgeons from 27 major centers across the globe. IVSSG Sutureless Projects currently proceeding include the Retrospective and Prospective Phases of the SU-AVR International Registry (SU-AVR-IR). CONCLUSIONS The global pooling of data by the IVSSG Sutureless Projects will provide required robust clinical evidence on the safety, efficacy and hemodynamic outcomes of SU-AVR.
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An interdisciplinary European group of clinical experts in the field of movement disorders and experienced Botulinum toxin users has updated the consensus for the use of Botulinum toxin in the treatment of children with cerebral palsy (CP). A problem-orientated approach was used focussing on both published and practice-based evidence. In part I of the consensus the authors have tabulated the supporting evidence to produce a concise but comprehensive information base, pooling data and experience from 36 institutions in 9 European countries which involves more than 10,000 patients and over 45,000 treatment sessions during a period of more than 280 treatment years. In part II of the consensus the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM) and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) based Motor Development Curves have been expanded to provide a graphical framework on how to treat the motor disorders in children with CP. This graph is named "CP(Graph) Treatment Modalities - Gross Motor Function" and is intended to facilitate communication between parents, therapists and medical doctors concerning (1) achievable motor function, (2) realistic goal-setting and (3) treatment perspectives for children with CP. The updated European consensus 2009 summarises the current understanding regarding an integrated, multidisciplinary treatment approach using Botulinum toxin for the treatment of children with CP.
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This article describes the indigenous knowledge (IK) that agro-pastoralists in larger Makueni District, Kenya hold and how they use it to monitor, mitigate and adapt to drought. It examines ways of integrating IK into formal monitoring, how to enhance its value and acceptability. Data was collected through target interviews, group discussions and questionnaires covering 127 households in eight villages. Daily rainfall data from 1961–2003 were analysed. Results show that agro-pastoralists hold IK on indicators of rainfall variability; they believe in IK efficacy and they rely on them. Because agro-pastoralists consult additional sources, the authors interpret that IK forms a basic knowledge frame within which agro-pastoralists position and interpret meteorological forecasts. Only a few agro-pastoralists adapt their practices in anticipation of IK-based forecasts partly due to the conditioning of the actors to the high rainfall variability characteristic of the area and partly due to lack of resources. Non-drought factors such as poverty, inadequate resources and lack of preparedness expose agro-pastoralists to drought impacts and limit their adaptive capacity. These factors need to be understood and effectively addressed to increase agro-pastoralists’ decision options and the influence of IK-based forecasts on their decision-making patterns. The limited intergenerational transfer of IK currently threatens its existence in the longer term. One way to ensure its continued existence and use is to integrate IK into the education curriculum and to link IK with formal climate change research through the participation of the local people. However, further studies are necessary to address the reliability and validity of the identified IK indicators of climate variability and change.
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BACKGROUND: Production of native antigens for serodiagnosis of helminthic infections is laborious and hampered by batch-to-batch variation. For serodiagnosis of echinococcosis, especially cystic disease, most screening tests rely on crude or purified Echinococcus granulosus hydatid cyst fluid. To resolve limitations associated with native antigens in serological tests, the use of standardized and highly pure antigens produced by chemical synthesis offers considerable advantages, provided appropriate diagnostic sensitivity and specificity is achieved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Making use of the growing collection of genomic and proteomic data, we applied a set of bioinformatic selection criteria to a collection of protein sequences including conceptually translated nucleotide sequence data of two related tapeworms, Echinococcus multilocularis and Echinococcus granulosus. Our approach targeted alpha-helical coiled-coils and intrinsically unstructured regions of parasite proteins potentially exposed to the host immune system. From 6 proteins of E. multilocularis and 5 proteins of E. granulosus, 45 peptides between 24 and 30 amino acids in length were designed. These peptides were chemically synthesized, spotted on microarrays and screened for reactivity with sera from infected humans. Peptides reacting above the cut-off were validated in enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Peptides identified failed to differentiate between E. multilocularis and E. granulosus infection. The peptide performing best reached 57% sensitivity and 94% specificity. This candidate derived from Echinococcus multilocularis antigen B8/1 and showed strong reactivity to sera from patients infected either with E. multilocularis or E. granulosus. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides proof of principle for the discovery of diagnostically relevant peptides by bioinformatic selection complemented with screening on a high-throughput microarray platform. Our data showed that a single peptide cannot provide sufficient diagnostic sensitivity whereas pooling several peptide antigens improved sensitivity; thus combinations of several peptides may lead the way to new diagnostic tests that replace, or at least complement conventional immunodiagnosis of echinococcosis. Our strategy could prove useful for diagnostic developments in other pathogens.