Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

2-methiopropamine, a thiopene analogue of metamphetamine: studies on its metabolism abt detectability in the rat and human using

2-Methiopropamine [1-(thiophen-2-yl)-2-methylaminopropane, 2-MPA], a thiophene analogue of methamphetamine, is available from online vendors selling "Research chemicals." The first samples were seized by the German police in 2011. As it is a recreational stimulant, its inclusion in routine drug screening protocols should be required. The aims of this study were to identify the phase I and II metabolites of 2-MPA in rat and human urine and to identify the human cytochrome-P450 (CYP) isoenzymes involved in its phase I metabolism. In addition, the detectability of 2-MPA in urine samples using the authors' well-established gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and liquid chromatography-linear ion trap-mass spectrometry (LC-MS(n)) screening protocols was also evaluated. The metabolites were isolated from rat and human urine samples by solid-Phase extraction without or following enzymatic cleavage of conjugates. The phase I metabolites, following acetylation, were separated and identified by GC-MS and/or liquid chromatography-high-resolution linear ion trap mass spectrometry (LC-HR-MS(n)) and the phase II metabolites by LC-HR-MS(n). The following Major metabolic pathways were proposed: N-demethylation, hydroxylation at the side chain and at the thiophene ring, and combination of these transformations followed by glucuronidation and/or sulfation. CYP1A2, CYP2C19, CYP2D6, and CYP3A4 were identified as the major phase I metabolizing enzymes. They were also involved in the N-demethylation of the analogue methamphetamine and CYP2C19, CYP2D6, and CYP3A4 in its ring hydroxylation. Following the administration of a typical user's dose, 2-MPA and its metabolites were identified in rat urine using the authors' GC-MS and the LC-MS(n) screening approaches. Ingestion of 2-MPA could also be detected by both protocols in an authentic human urine sample.

[Analysis of clinical forensic examination reports on sexually abused children]

Clinical forensic examinations of children suspected of having been sexually abused are increasingly part of the routine of medicolegal institutes. The findings collected from 2005 until 2007 at the Institute of Legal Medicine of the Hanover Medical School were analysed retrospectively. Altogether, 91 children (74 females, 17 males, mean age 8.7 years) were examined. In 87.9% of the cases, the examination had been ordered by the police. In 73.6%, the victim knew the suspected perpetrator well or he was a family member. 40.7% of the children were seen within 72 hours after the alleged abuse. 12.1% of the children had extragenital lesions. In 27% of the victims, marked anogenital injuries were found, which were characteristic of sexual abuse in 9%. In 18 cases (20.2%), swabs were taken for spermatozoa detection. 3 of 17 vaginal smears showed positive test results for sperm up to 21 hours after the incident. No spermatozoa could be detected in 4 anal and 2 oral swabs as well as in one swab taken from the skin of the victim's thigh. In summary, the evaluation shows that early clinical forensic examination of children suspected of having been sexually abused is crucial to document evidence that is highly significant for the investigation and court proceedings. Often suspected sexual child abuse cannot be proved by medical findings alone. Of course, the absence of anogenital injuries does nor rule out sexual abuse.

Cadaver dogs--a study on detection of contaminated carpet squares

INTRODUCTION: Cadaver dogs are known as valuable forensic tools in crime scene investigations. Scientific research attempting to verify their value is largely lacking, specifically for scents associated with the early postmortem interval. The aim of our investigation was the comparative evaluation of the reliability, accuracy, and specificity of three cadaver dogs belonging to the Hamburg State Police in the detection of scents during the early postmortem interval. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Carpet squares were used as an odor transporting media after they had been contaminated with the scent of two recently deceased bodies (PMI<3h). The contamination occurred for 2 min as well as 10 min without any direct contact between the carpet and the corpse. Comparative searches by the dogs were performed over a time period of 65 days (10 min contamination) and 35 days (2 min contamination). RESULTS: The results of this study indicate that the well-trained cadaver dog is an outstanding tool for crime scene investigation displaying excellent sensitivity (75-100), specificity (91-100), and having a positive predictive value (90-100), negative predictive value (90-100) as well as accuracy (92-100).

Risk factors for potentially avoidable readmissions due to end-of-life care issues

BACKGROUND Repeated hospitalizations are frequent toward the end of life, where each admission should be an opportunity to initiate advance-care planning to high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for having a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues among all medical patients. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING/PATIENTS All 10,275 consecutive discharges from any medical service of an academic tertiary medical center in Boston, Massachusetts between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. MEASUREMENTS A random sample of all the potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions was independently reviewed by 9 trained physicians to identify the ones due to end-of-life issues. RESULTS Among 534, 30-day potentially avoidable readmission cases reviewed, 80 (15%) were due to an end-of-life care issue. In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were significantly associated with a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues: number of admissions in the previous 12 months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10 per admission, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.20), neoplasm (OR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.85-10.98), opiate medications at discharge (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.29-4.07), Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR: 1.16 per 5-point increase, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). The discrimination of the model (C statistic) was 0.85. CONCLUSIONS In a medical population, we identified 4 main risk factors that were significantly associated with 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues, producing a model with very good to excellent discrimination. Patients with these risk factors might benefit from palliative care consultation prior to discharge in order to improve end-of-life care and possibly reduce unnecessary rehospitalizations.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

Efficacy and Safety of Natalizumab in Crohn’s Disease Patients Treated at 6 Boston Academic Hospitals

BACKGROUND: Despite trials demonstrating its efficacy, many physicians harbor concerns regarding the use of natalizumab in the treatment of patients with refractory Crohn's disease (CD). The purpose of this study was to perform a descriptive analysis of a series of CD patients not currently enrolled in a clinical trial. METHODS: A retrospective case review of patients treated with natalizumab at 6 sites in Massachusetts: Boston Medical Center, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Lahey Clinic, Massachusetts General Hospital, and UMass Medical Center. RESULTS: Data on 69 CD patients on natalizumab were collected. At the start of treatment, patients' disease duration was 12 years. A high proportion of patients were women (68%), presented with perianal disease (65%) and upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (14%). Prior nonbiologic therapies were steroids (96%), thiopurines (94%), antibiotics (74%), methotrexate (58%), and at least two anti-tumor necrosis factor agent failures (81%). Sixty-nine percent (44 of 64 patients) with available medical evaluation had a partial or complete clinical response. Loss of response was 13% after an average of 1 year of treatment. Adverse events were infusion reactions, headaches, fever, and infections. No case of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: In our clinical experience outside the context of a clinical trial, natalizumab is largely reserved for CD patients with extensive ileocolonic disease who have failed conventional immunosuppressants and of at least 2 anti-tumor necrosis factor agents. This drug is, however, well tolerated and offers significant clinical improvement for more than a year in one-third of these difficult-to-treat CD patients.

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