An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke

OBJECTIVE We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

Determinants of antithrombotic choice for patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke

Objective: We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation. Methods: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) “high-risk” echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings. Results: A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use. Conclusion: Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.

Stochastic search for semiparametric linear regression models

This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar [Ann. Statist. 15(3) (1987) 1131–1154]. The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Dümbgen et al. [Ann. Statist. 39(2) (2011) 702–730] on regression models with log-concave error distributions.

The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for linear regression models

The counterfactual decomposition technique popularized by Blinder (1973, Journal of Human Resources, 436–455) and Oaxaca (1973, International Economic Review, 693–709) is widely used to study mean outcome differences between groups. For example, the technique is often used to analyze wage gaps by sex or race. This article summarizes the technique and addresses several complications, such as the identification of effects of categorical predictors in the detailed decomposition or the estimation of standard errors. A new command called oaxaca is introduced, and examples illustrating its usage are given.

PSPLINE: Stata module providing a penalized spline scatterplot smoother based on linear mixed model technology

Pspline uses xtmixed to fit a penalized spline regression and plots the smoothed function. Additional covariates can be specified to adjust the smooth and plot partial residuals.

Population-based analysis of 4113 patients with acute cholecystitis: defining the optimal time-point for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Objective: To compare clinical outcomes after laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for acute cholecystitis performed at various time-points after hospital admission. Background: Symptomatic gallstones represent an important public health problem with LC the treatment of choice. LC is increasingly offered for acute cholecystitis, however, the optimal time-point for LC in this setting remains a matter of debate. Methods: Analysis was based on the prospective database of the Swiss Association of Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery and included patients undergoing emergency LC for acute cholecystitis between 1995 and 2006, grouped according to the time-points of LC since hospital admission (admission day (d0), d1, d2, d3, d4/5, d ≥6). Linear and generalized linear regression models assessed the effect of timing of LC on intra- or postoperative complications, conversion and reoperation rates and length of postoperative hospital stay. Results: Of 4113 patients, 52.8% were female, median age was 59.8 years. Delaying LC resulted in significantly higher conversion rates (from 11.9% at d0 to 27.9% at d ≥6 days after admission, P < 0.001), surgical postoperative complications (5.7% to 13%, P < 0.001) and re-operation rates (0.9% to 3%, P = 0.007), with a significantly longer postoperative hospital stay (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Delaying LC for acute cholecystitis has no advantages, resulting in significantly increased conversion/re-operation rate, postoperative complications and longer postoperative hospital stay. This investigation—one of the largest in the literature—provides compelling evidence that acute cholecystitis merits surgery within 48 hours of hospital admission if impact on the patient and health care system is to be minimized.

Coping personality type and environmental enrichment affect aggression at weaning in pigs

This study investigated the effects of different environmental treatments and personality types on aggression at mixing of newly weaned domestic piglets. From birth to weaning, 16 litters were housed with their dams in either barren (B) or larger, substrate-enriched (E) environments. At 15 days old, piglets were classified as 'high' (HR) or low resistant' (LR) in a manual restraint test (backtest), which is thought to identify proactive (HR) and reactive (LR) stress coping strategies that may reflect different personality types. At 30 days old, 128 piglets were weaned, relocated and mixed into 32 pens comprising two HR and two LR unfamiliar pigs, balanced for sex and weaning weight. Eight B and eight E groups changed environmental condition whereas the others remained in the same type of environment. Number and duration of fights. fight outcomes and unilateral fighting were scored for 5 h post-mixing and skin lesions were counted before and 5 h, 1 day and 2 days after mixing. On the day following weaning, fighting and also exploratory and oral manipulative behaviours were measured for 6 h. Generalized Linear Mixed Model analyses suggested interactions between pre-weaning environment, post-weaning environment and personality type. Overall, pre-weaning E pigs had longer fights at weaning and mixing (P=0.01) and fought for longer on the next day (P=0.02) than pre-weaning B pigs, and inflicted more skin lesions (P=0.02). Post-weaning enrichment did not affect fighting at mixing but reduced the time spent fighting the next day (P=0.03). Personality had subtle and environment-dependent effects on fighting, and influenced the "structure" rather than the amount of aggressive behaviour. HR pigs, for instance, bullied (i.e. chased surrendering pigs) more often (P=0.009) and their fighting behaviour was less affected by their relative body weight than that of LR pigs. Post-weaning E pigs showed relatively higher levels of exploratory behaviour (P=0.02) and less oral manipulative behaviour (P=0.04) than post-weaning B pigs. In particular, switching from a good quality environment (E) to a worse quality one (B) at weaning decreased exploratory behaviour on the next day, especially for LR pigs, who also tended to fight with and orally manipulate their pen mates more in that condition, and seemed to be more affected by a deterioration of the environment. Overall, pre-weaning enrichment increased aggression after weaning whereas post-weaning enrichment reduced it, and personality type related to some aspects of fighting behaviour. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mean CD4 cell count changes in patients failing a first-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings

Background Changes in CD4 cell counts are poorly documented in individuals with low or moderate-level viremia while on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in resource-limited settings. We assessed the impact of on-going HIV-RNA replication on CD4 cell count slopes in patients treated with a first-line combination ART. Method Naïve patients on a first-line ART regimen with at least two measures of HIV-RNA available after ART initiation were included in the study. The relationships between mean CD4 cell count change and HIV-RNA at 6 and 12 months after ART initiation (M6 and M12) were assessed by linear mixed models adjusted for gender, age, clinical stage and year of starting ART. Results 3,338 patients were included (14 cohorts, 64% female) and the group had the following characteristics: a median follow-up time of 1.6 years, a median age of 34 years, and a median CD4 cell count at ART initiation of 107 cells/μL. All patients with suppressed HIV-RNA at M12 had a continuous increase in CD4 cell count up to 18 months after treatment initiation. By contrast, any degree of HIV-RNA replication both at M6 and M12 was associated with a flat or a decreasing CD4 cell count slope. Multivariable analysis using HIV-RNA thresholds of 10,000 and 5,000 copies confirmed the significant effect of HIV-RNA on CD4 cell counts both at M6 and M12. Conclusion In routinely monitored patients on an NNRTI-based first-line ART, on-going low-level HIV-RNA replication was associated with a poor immune outcome in patients who had detectable levels of the virus after one year of ART.

Association between symptoms and quality of life in patients with schizophrenia: a pooled analysis of changes over time

Quality of life is an important outcome in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia. It has been suggested that patients' quality of life ratings (referred to as subjective quality of life, SQOL) might be too heavily influenced by symptomatology to be a valid independent outcome criterion. There has been only limited evidence on the association of symptom change and changes in SQOL over time. This study aimed to examine the association between changes in symptoms and in SQOL among patients with schizophrenia. A pooled data set was obtained from eight longitudinal studies that had used the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) for measuring psychiatric symptoms and either the Lancashire Quality of Life Profile or the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life for assessing SQOL. The sample comprised 886 patients with schizophrenia. After controlling for heterogeneity of findings across studies using linear mixed models, a reduction in psychiatric symptoms was associated with improvements in SQOL scores. In univariate analyses, changes in all BPRS subscales were associated with changes in SQOL scores. In a multivariate model, only associations between changes in the BPRS depression/anxiety and hostility subscales and changes in SQOL remained significant, with 5% and 0.5% of the variance in SQOL changes being attributable to changes in depression/anxiety and hostility respectively. All BPRS subscales together explained 8.5% of variance. The findings indicate that SQOL changes are influenced by symptom change, in particular in depression/anxiety. The level of influence is limited and may not compromise using SQOL as an independent outcome measure.

Factors influencing subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia and other mental disorders: a pooled analysis

Subjective quality of life (SQOL) is an important outcome in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia. However, there is only limited evidence on factors influencing SQOL, and little is known about whether the same factors influence SQOL in patients with schizophrenia and other mental disorders. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with SQOL and test whether these factors are equally important in schizophrenia and other disorders. For this we used a pooled data set obtained from 16 studies that had used either the Lancashire Quality of Life Profile or the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life for assessing SQOL. The sample comprised 3936 patients with schizophrenia, mood disorders, and neurotic disorders. After controlling for confounding factors, within-subject clustering, and heterogeneity of findings across studies in linear mixed models, patients with schizophrenia had more favourable SQOL scores than those with mood and neurotic disorders. In all diagnostic groups, older patients, those in employment, and those with lower symptom scores had higher SQOL scores. Whilst the strength of the association between age and SQOL did not differ across diagnostic groups, symptom levels were more strongly associated with SQOL in neurotic than in mood disorders and schizophrenia. The association of employment and SQOL was stronger in mood and neurotic disorders than in schizophrenia. The findings may inform the use and interpretation of SQOL data for patients with schizophrenia.

Can a website-delivered computer-tailored physical activity intervention be acceptable, usable, and effective for older people?

Despite the numerous health benefits, population physical activity levels are low and declining with age. A continued increase of Internet access allows for website-delivered interventions to be implemented across age-groups, though older people have typically not been considered for this type of intervention. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate a website-delivered computer-tailored physical activity intervention, with a specific focus on differences in tailored advice acceptability, website usability, and physical activity change between three age-groups. To mimic "real-life" conditions, the intervention, which provided personalized physical activity feedback delivered via the Internet, was implemented and evaluated without any personal contact for the entire duration of the study. Data were collected online at baseline, 1-week, and 1-month follow-up and analyzed for three age-groups (≤44, 45-59, and ≥60 years) using linear mixed models. Overall, 803 adults received the intervention and 288 completed all measures. The oldest age-group increased physical activity more than the other two groups, spent the most time on the website, though had significantly lower perceived Internet self-confidence scores when compared with the youngest age-group. No differences were found in terms of website usability and tailored advice acceptability. These results suggest that website-delivered physical activity interventions can be suitable and effective for older aged adults.

UMTS base station-like exposure, well-being, and cognitive performance

BACKGROUND: Radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMF) of mobile communication systems are widespread in the living environment, yet their effects on humans are uncertain despite a growing body of literature. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the influence of a Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) base station-like signal on well-being and cognitive performance in subjects with and without self-reported sensitivity to RF EMF. METHODS: We performed a controlled exposure experiment (45 min at an electric field strength of 0, 1, or 10 V/m, incident with a polarization of 45 degrees from the left back side of the subject, weekly intervals) in a randomized, double-blind crossover design. A total of 117 healthy subjects (33 self-reported sensitive, 84 nonsensitive subjects) participated in the study. We assessed well-being, perceived field strength, and cognitive performance with questionnaires and cognitive tasks and conducted statistical analyses using linear mixed models. Organ-specific and brain tissue-specific dosimetry including uncertainty and variation analysis was performed. RESULTS: In both groups, well-being and perceived field strength were not associated with actual exposure levels. We observed no consistent condition-induced changes in cognitive performance except for two marginal effects. At 10 V/m we observed a slight effect on speed in one of six tasks in the sensitive subjects and an effect on accuracy in another task in nonsensitive subjects. Both effects disappeared after multiple end point adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to a recent Dutch study, we could not confirm a short-term effect of UMTS base station-like exposure on well-being. The reported effects on brain functioning were marginal and may have occurred by chance. Peak spatial absorption in brain tissue was considerably smaller than during use of a mobile phone. No conclusions can be drawn regarding short-term effects of cell phone exposure or the effects of long-term base station-like exposure on human health.

Long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND: Few data are available on the long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, where ART is being rapidly scaled up using a public health approach, with a limited repertoire of drugs. OBJECTIVES: To describe immunologic response to ART among ART patients in a network of cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia. STUDY POPULATION/METHODS: Treatment-naive patients aged 15 and older from 27 treatment programs were eligible. Multilevel, linear mixed models were used to assess associations between predictor variables and CD4 cell count trajectories following ART initiation. RESULTS: Of 29 175 patients initiating ART, 8933 (31%) were excluded due to insufficient follow-up time and early lost to follow-up or death. The remaining 19 967 patients contributed 39 200 person-years on ART and 71 067 CD4 cell count measurements. The median baseline CD4 cell count was 114 cells/microl, with 35% having less than 100 cells/microl. Substantial intersite variation in baseline CD4 cell count was observed (range 61-181 cells/microl). Women had higher median baseline CD4 cell counts than men (121 vs. 104 cells/microl). The median CD4 cell count increased from 114 cells/microl at ART initiation to 230 [interquartile range (IQR) 144-338] at 6 months, 263 (IQR 175-376) at 1 year, 336 (IQR 224-472) at 2 years, 372 (IQR 242-537) at 3 years, 377 (IQR 221-561) at 4 years, and 395 (IQR 240-592) at 5 years. In multivariable models, baseline CD4 cell count was the most important determinant of subsequent CD4 cell count trajectories. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate robust and sustained CD4 response to ART among patients remaining on therapy. Public health and programmatic interventions leading to earlier HIV diagnosis and initiation of ART could substantially improve patient outcomes in resource-limited settings.