Emergence of acquired HIV-1 drug resistance has almost been stopped in Switzerland - a 15 year prospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND  Drug resistance is a major barrier to successful antiretroviral treatment (ART). Therefore, it is important to monitor time trends at a population level. METHODS  We included 11,084 ART-experienced patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) between 1999 and 2013. The SHCS is highly representative and includes 72% of patients receiving ART in Switzerland. Drug resistance was defined as the presence of at least one major mutation in a genotypic resistance test. To estimate the prevalence of drug resistance, data for patients with no resistance test was imputed based on patient's risk of harboring drug resistant viruses. RESULTS  The emergence of new drug resistance mutations declined dramatically from 401 to 23 patients between 1999 and 2013. The upper estimated prevalence limit of drug resistance among ART-experienced patients decreased from 57.0% in 1999 to 37.1% in 2013. The prevalence of three-class resistance decreased from 9.0% to 4.4% and was always <0.4% for patients who initiated ART after 2006. Most patients actively participating in the SHCS in 2013 with drug resistant viruses initiated ART before 1999 (59.8%). Nevertheless, in 2013, 94.5% of patients who initiated ART before 1999 had good remaining treatment options based on Stanford algorithm. CONCLUSION  HIV-1 drug resistance among ART-experienced patients in Switzerland is a well-controlled relic from the pre-combination ART era. Emergence of drug resistance can be virtually stopped with new potent therapies and close monitoring.

Soft Tissue Alterations in Esthetic Postextraction Sites: A 3-Dimensional Analysis.

Dimensional alterations of the facial soft and bone tissues following tooth extraction in the esthetic zone play an essential role to achieve successful outcomes in implant therapy. This prospective study is the first to investigate the interplay between the soft tissue dimensions and the underlying bone anatomy during an 8-wk healing period. The analysis is based on sequential 3-dimensional digital surface model superimpositions of the soft and bone tissues using digital impressions and cone beam computed tomography during an 8-wk healing period. Soft tissue thickness in thin and thick bone phenotypes at extraction was similar, averaging 0.7 mm and 0.8 mm, respectively. Interestingly, thin bone phenotypes revealed a 7-fold increase in soft tissue thickness after an 8-wk healing period, whereas in thick bone phenotypes, the soft tissue dimensions remained unchanged. The observed spontaneous soft tissue thickening in thin bone phenotypes resulted in a vertical soft tissue loss of only 1.6 mm, which concealed the underlying vertical bone resorption of 7.5 mm. Because of spontaneous soft tissue thickening, no significant differences were detected in the total tissue loss between thin and thick bone phenotypes at 2, 4, 6, and 8 wk. More than 51% of these dimensional alterations occurred within 2 wk of healing. Even though the observed spontaneous soft tissue thickening in thin bone phenotypes following tooth extraction conceals the pronounced underlying bone resorption pattern by masking the true bone deficiency, spontaneous soft tissue thickening offers advantages for subsequent bone regeneration and implant therapies in sites with high esthetic demand (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02403700).

Age in antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands, increasing numbers of older patients will start treatment and need specialised long-term care. However, the effect of age in ART programmes in resource-constrained settings is poorly understood. The HIV epidemic is ageing rapidly and South Africa has one of the highest HIV population prevalences worldwide. We explored the effect of age on mortality of patients on ART in South Africa and whether this effect is mediated by baseline immunological status. METHODS In this retrospective cohort analysis, we studied HIV-positive patients aged 16-80 years who started ART for the first time in six large South African cohorts of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa collaboration, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Western Cape (two primary care clinics, three hospitals, and a large rural cohort). The primary outcome was mortality. We ascertained patients' vital status through linkage to the National Population Register. We used inverse probability weighting to correct mortality for loss to follow-up. We estimated mortality using Cox's proportional hazards and competing risks regression. We tested the interaction between baseline CD4 cell count and age. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2013, 84,078 eligible adults started ART. Of these, we followed up 83,566 patients for 174,640 patient-years. 8% (1817 of 23,258) of patients aged 16-29 years died compared with 19% (93 of 492) of patients aged 65 years or older. The age adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (95% CI 2·01-3·17) for people aged 65 years or older compared with those 16-29 years of age. In patients starting ART with a CD4 count of less than 50 cells per μL, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (2·04-3·11) for people aged 50 years or older compared with those 16-39 years old. Mortality was highest in patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells per μL, and 15% (1103 of 7295) of all patients aged 50 years or older starting ART were in this group. The proportion of patients aged 50 years or older enrolling in ART increased with successive years, from 6% (290 of 4999) in 2004 to 10% (961 of 9657) in 2012-13, comprising 9% of total enrolment (7295 of 83 566). At the end of the study, 6304 (14%) of 44,909 patients still alive and in care were aged 50 years or older. INTERPRETATION Health services need reorientation towards HIV diagnosis and starting of ART in older individuals. Policies are needed for long-term care of older people with HIV. FUNDING National Institutes of Health (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), US Agency for International Development, and South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis.

CD4 count at antiretroviral therapy initiation and the risk of loss to follow-up: results from a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is now recommended irrespective of CD4 count. However data on the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and loss to follow-up (LTFU) are limited and conflicting. METHODS We conducted a cohort analysis including all adults initiating ART (2008-2012) at three public sector sites in South Africa. LTFU was defined as no visit in the 6 months before database closure. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazards models examined the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and 24-month LTFU. Final models were adjusted for demographics, year of ART initiation, programme expansion and corrected for unascertained mortality. RESULTS Among 17 038 patients, the median CD4 at initiation increased from 119 (IQR 54-180) in 2008 to 257 (IQR 175-318) in 2012. In unadjusted models, observed LTFU was associated with both CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL. After adjustment, patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL were 1.35 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.63) times as likely to be LTFU after 24 months compared to those with a CD4 150-199 cells/μL. This increased risk for patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL was largest in the first 3 months on treatment. Correction for unascertained deaths attenuated the association between CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and LTFU while the association between CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL and LTFU persisted. CONCLUSIONS Patients initiating ART at higher CD4 counts may be at increased risk for LTFU. With programmes initiating patients at higher CD4 counts, models of ART delivery need to be reoriented to support long-term retention.

Treatment of joint prosthesis infection in accordance with current recommendations improves outcome

BACKGROUND: Recently recommended treatment modalities for prosthetic joint infection (PJI) were evaluated. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of 68 patients with PJI of hip or knee who were treated from 1995 through 2004 was conducted at the University Hospital Bern (Bern, Switzerland). RESULTS: A 2-stage exchange was the most frequent (75.0%) surgical strategy, followed by retention and debridement (17.6%), 1-stage exchange (5.9%), and resection arthroplasty or suppressive antimicrobial treatment (1.5%). The chosen strategy was in 88% agreement with the recommendations. Adherence was only 17% for retention and debridement and was 0% for 1-stage exchange. Most PJIs (84%) were treated with an adequate or partially adequate antimicrobial regimen. Recurrence-free survival was observed in 51.5% of PJI episodes after 24 months of follow-up. The risk of treatment failure was significantly higher for PJI treated with a surgical strategy other than that recommended (hazard ratio, 2.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.70; P = .01) and for PJIs treated with antibiotics not corresponding to recommendations (hazard ratio, 3.45; confidence interval, 1.50-7.60; P = .002). Other risk factors associated with lack of healing were a high infection score at the time of diagnosis (hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.40; P < .001) and presence of a sinus tract (hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-5.0; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the value of current treatment recommendations. Inappropriate choice of conservative surgical strategies (such as debridement and retention) and inadequate antibiotic treatment are associated with failure.

Hochwasser-«Katastrophen» in Basel vom 13. bis 21. Jahrhundert Rekonstruktion, Deutung und Lerneffekte

Magnitudes of peak discharges of 43 non-instrumentally measured Rhine river floods at Basel were reconstructed. The methodology is based on a range of different historic sources, containing flood information (including traditional urban inundation reference points from flood reports of medieval and early modern period chroniclers as well as 19th century journalists, flood marks, paintings and drawings, town maps, longitudinal and cross profiles etc.). These traditional pre-instrumental “flood information systems” still existed in the 19th century, when in 1808 the first instrumental hydrological measurements started. They thus could be calibrated with instrumental measurements in the 19th century overlapping period. The result is a 743 year long quantified Rhine river flood series. Floods of both periods (pre-instrumental as well as instrumental) can thus be directly compared for the very first time. The long-range consequences of rivers Kander and Aare deviations in 1714 and 1878 are reflected in a distinct change of magnitudes of peak discharges in Basel. A clear flood “disaster gap” appears in the 20th century. The lack of any extreme floods for such a long time is completely unique during the 743-year period of analysis. This result will influence the statistical assessment of once-in-a-century events, which might be of great interest for insurance campanies.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Postnatal retention in HIV care: insight from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over a 15-year observational period.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to quantify loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV care after delivery and to identify risk factors for LTFU, and implications for HIV disease progression and subsequent pregnancies. METHODS We used data on pregnancies within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 1996 to 2011. A delayed clinical visit was defined as > 180 days and LTFU as no visit for > 365 days after delivery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for LTFU. RESULTS A total of 695 pregnancies in 580 women were included in the study, of which 115 (17%) were subsequent pregnancies. Median maternal age was 32 years (IQR 28-36 years) and 104 (15%) women reported any history of injecting drug use (IDU). Overall, 233 of 695 (34%) women had a delayed visit in the year after delivery and 84 (12%) women were lost to follow-up. Being lost to follow-up was significantly associated with a history of IDU [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-5.88; P = 0.007] and not achieving an undetectable HIV viral load (VL) at delivery (aOR 2.42; 95% CI 1.21-4.85; P = 0.017) after adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity and being on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at conception. Forty-three of 84 (55%) women returned to care after LTFU. Half of them (20 of 41) with available CD4 had a CD4 count < 350 cells/μL and 15% (six of 41) a CD4 count < 200 cells/μL at their return. CONCLUSIONS A history of IDU and detectable HIV VL at delivery were associated with LTFU. Effective strategies are warranted to retain women in care beyond pregnancy and to avoid CD4 cell count decline. ART continuation should be advised especially if a subsequent pregnancy is planned.

Skin cancers in renal transplant recipients: A description of the renal transplant cohort in Bern

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Skin tumours, in particular squamous-cell carcinomas (SCC), are the most common malignant conditions developing in transplant recipients. The aim of this study is to investigate the frequency and type of skin cancer in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy after organ transplantation. METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on data of 243 renal transplant patients who attended the dermatology outpatient clinic for the first time after transplantation in the period January 2002-October 2005. RESULTS: We found an increased risk of actinic keratosis (AK) and SCC in renal transplant recipients with a basal cell carcinoma (BCC) / SCC ratio of 1:7. Older patients had AK more frequently (odds ratio [OR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.15; p <0.0001) and SCC (OR 1.14, CI 1.07-1.22; p <0.0001) than younger patients. Men had AK (OR 0.19, CI 0.08-0.45; p = 0.0002) and SCC (OR 0.25, CI 0.07-0.89; p = 0.0332) more frequently than women. The duration of immunosuppressive therapy correlated significantly with the numbers of AKs (OR 1.15, CI 1.08-1.24; p <0.0001) and SCCs (OR 1.16, CI 1.05-1.28; p = 0.0025), and patients with fair skin had more AKs (OR 0.31, CI 0.14-1.24; p <0.0001) and SCCs (OR 0.11, CI 0.02-0.52; p = 0.0054) than darker skinned patients. We could not identify any specific immunosuppressive drug as a distinct risk factor for AK or non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). CONCLUSION: Skin cancers are increased in the renal transplant population. Main risk factors for skin cancers are fair skin type and long duration of immunosuppressive therapy. A follow-up programme is necessary for early detection of skin cancer and precancerous conditions. Preventive strategies should include specialist dermatological monitoring and self-examination.

Risk assessment in the first fifteen minutes: a prospective cohort study of a simple physiological scoring system in the emergency department

Introduction The survival of patients admitted to an emergency department is determined by the severity of acute illness and the quality of care provided. The high number and the wide spectrum of severity of illness of admitted patients make an immediate assessment of all patients unrealistic. The aim of this study is to evaluate a scoring system based on readily available physiological parameters immediately after admission to an emergency department (ED) for the purpose of identification of at-risk patients. Methods This prospective observational cohort study includes 4,388 consecutive adult patients admitted via the ED of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital over a period of six months. Occurrence of each of seven potential vital sign abnormalities (threat to airway, abnormal respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, low Glasgow Coma Scale and seizures) was collected and added up to generate the vital sign score (VSS). VSSinitial was defined as the VSS in the first 15 minutes after admission, VSSmax as the maximum VSS throughout the stay in ED. Occurrence of single vital sign abnormalities in the first 15 minutes and VSSinitial and VSSmax were evaluated as potential predictors of hospital mortality. Results Logistic regression analysis identified all evaluated single vital sign abnormalities except seizures and abnormal respiratory rate to be independent predictors of hospital mortality. Increasing VSSinitial and VSSmax were significantly correlated to hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.50 to 3.14, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial; OR 2.36, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.60, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). The predictive power of VSS was highest if collected in the first 15 minutes after ED admission (log rank Chi-square 468.1, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial;,log rank Chi square 361.5, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). Conclusions Vital sign abnormalities and VSS collected in the first minutes after ED admission can identify patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Occurrence, risk factors, diagnosis and treatment of syphilis in the prospective observational Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Annual syphilis testing was reintroduced in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) in 2004. We prospectively studied occurrence, risk factors, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches and treatment of syphilis. Methods: Over a period of 33 months, participants with positive test results for Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay were studied using the SHCS database and an additional structured case report form. Results: Of 7244 cohort participants, 909 (12.5%) had positive syphilis serology. Among these, 633 had previously been treated and had no current signs or symptoms of syphilis at time of testing. Of 218 patients with newly detected untreated syphilis, 20% reported genitooral contacts as only risk behavior and 60% were asymptomatic. Newly detected syphilis was more frequent among men who have sex with men (MSM) [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.8, P < 0.001], in persons reporting casual sexual partners (adjusted OR 2.8, P < 0.001) and in MSM of younger age (P = 0.05). Only 35% of recommended cerebrospinal fluid (CFS) examinations were performed. Neurosyphilis was diagnosed in four neurologically asymptomatic patients; all of them had a Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) titer of 1:≥32. Ninety-one percent of the patients responded to treatment with at least a four-fold decline in VDRL titer. Conclusion: Syphilis remains an important coinfection in the SHCS justifying reintroduction of routine screening. Genitooral contact is a significant way of transmission and young MSM are at high risk for syphilis. Current guidelines to rule out neurosyphilis by CSF analysis are inconsistently followed in clinical practice. Serologic treatment response is above 90% in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

On the way to light the dark: a retrospective inquiry into the registered cases of domestic violence towards women over a six year period with a semi-quantitative analysis of the corresponding forensic documentation

Domestic violence victims are increasingly identified at emergency departments (ED). Studies report a prevalence of 6-30%; women are more frequently affected and to a more serious extent than men. Studies have shown that without screening domestic violence victims are often not recognised. The primary aim of the study is to collect data descriptive of domestic violence victims and to show whether medical documentation meets the requirements of forensic medicine.

Longitudinal analysis of patterns and predictors of changes in self-reported adherence to antiretroviral therapy: Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is a dynamic process, however, changes in adherence behavior over time are insufficiently understood.