Personality, risky health behavior, and perceived susceptibility to health risks

We examined the relations between personality (Five-Factor Model), risky health behaviours, and perceptions of susceptibility to health risks among 683 university students. The hypothesis was that personality would affect perceptions of susceptibility to health risks in two ways: directly, irrespective of risky health behaviours, and indirectly, through the effects of personality on risky health behaviours. The students were surveyed about smoking, being drunk, drunk driving, risky sexual behaviour, and perceptions of susceptibility to related health risks. In path-analytical models we found the expected direct and indirect effects. The personality dimensions of Agreeableness and Conscientiousness had negative direct effects on perceptions of susceptibility as well as negative indirect effects through risky health behaviours. Neuroticism was the only personality dimension to show positive direct effects on perceptions of susceptibility as well as negative indirect effects.

A Passive WiFi Source Localization System based on Fine-grained Power-based Trilateration

Indoor localization systems become more interesting for researchers because of the attractiveness of business cases in various application fields. A WiFi-based passive localization system can provide user location information to third-party providers of positioning services. However, indoor localization techniques are prone to multipath and Non-Line Of Sight (NLOS) propagation, which lead to significant performance degradation. To overcome these problems, we provide a passive localization system for WiFi targets with several improved algorithms for localization. Through Software Defined Radio (SDR) techniques, we extract Channel Impulse Response (CIR) information at the physical layer. CIR is later adopted to mitigate the multipath fading problem. We propose to use a Nonlinear Regression (NLR) method to relate the filtered power information to propagation distances, which significantly improves the ranging accuracy compared to the commonly used log-distance path loss model. To mitigate the influence of ranging errors, a new trilateration algorithm is designed as well by combining Weighted Centroid and Constrained Weighted Least Square (WC-CWLS) algorithms. Experiment results show that our algorithm is robust against ranging errors and outperforms the linear least square algorithm and weighted centroid algorithm.

GSR deposition along the bullet path in contact shots to composite models

In contact shots, all the materials emerging from the muzzle (combustion gases, soot, powder grains, and metals from the primer) will be driven into the depth of the entrance wound and the following sections of the bullet track. The so-called "pocket" ("powder cavity") under the skin containing soot and gunpowder particles is regarded as a significant indicator of a contact entrance wound since one would expect that the quantity of GSR deposited along the bullet's path rapidly declines towards the exit hole. Nevertheless, experience has shown that soot, powder particles, and carboxyhemoglobin may be found not only in the initial part of the wound channel, but also far away from the entrance and even at the exit. In order to investigate the propagation of GSRs under standardized conditions, contact test shots were fired against composite models of pig skin and 25-cm-long gelatin blocks using 9-mm Luger pistol cartridges with two different primers (Sinoxid® and Sintox®). Subsequently, 1-cm-thick layers of the gelatin blocks were examined as to their primer element contents (lead, barium, and antimony as discharge residues of Sinoxid® as well as zinc and titanium from Sintox®) by means of X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. As expected, the highest element concentrations were found in the initial parts of the bullet tracks, but also the distal sections contained detectable amounts of the respective primer elements. The same was true for amorphous soot and unburned/partly burned powder particles, which could be demonstrated even at the exit site. With the help of a high-speed motion camera it was shown that for a short time the temporary cavitation extends from the entrance to the exit thus facilitating the unlimited spread of discharge residues along the whole bullet path.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Electronic medical record systems, data quality and loss to follow-up: survey of antiretroviral therapy programmes in resource-limited settings

OBJECTIVE: To describe the electronic medical databases used in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in lower-income countries and assess the measures such programmes employ to maintain and improve data quality and reduce the loss of patients to follow-up. METHODS: In 15 countries of Africa, South America and Asia, a survey was conducted from December 2006 to February 2007 on the use of electronic medical record systems in ART programmes. Patients enrolled in the sites at the time of the survey but not seen during the previous 12 months were considered lost to follow-up. The quality of the data was assessed by computing the percentage of missing key variables (age, sex, clinical stage of HIV infection, CD4+ lymphocyte count and year of ART initiation). Associations between site characteristics (such as number of staff members dedicated to data management), measures to reduce loss to follow-up (such as the presence of staff dedicated to tracing patients) and data quality and loss to follow-up were analysed using multivariate logit models. FINDINGS: Twenty-one sites that together provided ART to 50 060 patients were included (median number of patients per site: 1000; interquartile range, IQR: 72-19 320). Eighteen sites (86%) used an electronic database for medical record-keeping; 15 (83%) such sites relied on software intended for personal or small business use. The median percentage of missing data for key variables per site was 10.9% (IQR: 2.0-18.9%) and declined with training in data management (odds ratio, OR: 0.58; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.37-0.90) and weekly hours spent by a clerk on the database per 100 patients on ART (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90-0.99). About 10 weekly hours per 100 patients on ART were required to reduce missing data for key variables to below 10%. The median percentage of patients lost to follow-up 1 year after starting ART was 8.5% (IQR: 4.2-19.7%). Strategies to reduce loss to follow-up included outreach teams, community-based organizations and checking death registry data. Implementation of all three strategies substantially reduced losses to follow-up (OR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.15-0.20). CONCLUSION: The quality of the data collected and the retention of patients in ART treatment programmes are unsatisfactory for many sites involved in the scale-up of ART in resource-limited settings, mainly because of insufficient staff trained to manage data and trace patients lost to follow-up.

Switching of vascular phenotypes within a murine breast cancer model induced by angiopoietin-2

Sustained growth of solid tumours can rely on both the formation of new and the co-option of existing blood vessels. Current models suggest that binding of angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) to its endothelial Tie2 receptor prevents receptor phosphorylation, destabilizes blood vessels, and promotes vascular permeability. In contrast, binding of angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) induces Tie2 receptor activation and supports the formation of mature blood vessels covered by pericytes. Despite the intense research to decipher the role of angiopoietins during physiological neovascularization and tumour angiogenesis, a mechanistic understanding of angiopoietin function on vascular integrity and remodelling is still incomplete. We therefore assessed the vascular morphology of two mouse mammary carcinoma xenotransplants (M6378 and M6363) which differ in their natural angiopoietin expression. M6378 displayed Ang-1 in tumour cells but no Ang-2 in tumour endothelial cells in vivo. In contrast, M6363 tumours expressed Ang-2 in the tumour vasculature, whereas no Ang-1 expression was present in tumour cells. We stably transfected M6378 mouse mammary carcinoma cells with human Ang-1 or Ang-2 and investigated the consequences on the host vasculature, including ultrastructural morphology. Interestingly, M6378/Ang-2 and M6363 tumours displayed a similar vascular morphology, with intratumoural haemorrhage and non-functional and abnormal blood vessels. Pericyte loss was prominent in these tumours and was accompanied by increased endothelial cell apoptosis. Thus, overexpression of Ang-2 converted the vascular phenotype of M6378 tumours into a phenotype similar to M6363 tumours. Our results support the hypothesis that Ang-1/Tie2 signalling is essential for vessel stabilization and endothelial cell/pericyte interaction, and suggest that Ang-2 is able to induce a switch of vascular phenotypes within tumours.

The STEREO/PLASTIC response to solar wind ions (Flight measurements and models)

The Plasma and Supra-Thermal Ion Composition (PLASTIC) instrument is one of four experiment packages on board of the two identical STEREO spacecraft A and B, which were successfully launched from Cape Canaveral on 26 October 2006. During the two years of the nominal STEREO mission, PLASTIC is providing us with the plasma characteristics of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions. PLASTIC will also provide key diagnostic measurements in the form of the mass and charge state composition of heavy ions. Three measurements (E/qk, time of flight, ESSD) from the pulse height raw data are used to characterize the solar wind ions from the solar wind sector, and part of the suprathermal particles from the wide-angle partition with respect to mass, atomic number and charge state. In this paper, we present a new method for flight data analysis based on simulations of the PLASTIC response to solar wind ions. We present the response of the entrance system / energy analyzer in an analytical form. Based on stopping power theory, we use an analytical expression for the energy loss of the ions when they pass through a thin carbon foil. This allows us to model analytically the response of the time of flight mass spectrometer to solar wind ions. Thus we present a new version of the analytical response of the solid state detectors to solar wind ions. Various important parameters needed for our models were derived, based on calibration data and on the first flight measurements obtained from STEREO-A. We used information from each measured event that is registered in full resolution in the Pulse Height Analysis words and we derived a new algorithm for the analysis of both existing and future data sets of a similar nature which was tested and works well. This algorithm allows us to obtain, for each measured event, the mass, atomic number and charge state in the correct physical units. Finally, an important criterion was developed for filtering our Fe raw flight data set from the pulse height data without discriminating charge states.

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

Bone healing around titanium implants in two rat colitis models

OBJECTIVE Crohn's disease is a chronic inflammatory process that has recently been associated with a higher risk of early implant failure. Herein we provide information on the impact of colitis on peri-implant bone formation using preclinical models of chemically induced colitis. METHODS Colitis was induced by intrarectal instillation of 2,4,6-trinitro-benzene-sulfonic-acid (TNBS). Colitis was also induced by feeding rats dextran-sodium-sulfate (DSS) in drinking water. One week after disease induction, titanium miniscrews were inserted into the tibia. Four weeks after implantation, peri-implant bone volume per tissue volume (BV/TV) and bone-to-implant contacts (BIC) were determined by histomorphometric analysis. RESULTS Cortical histomorphometric parameters were similar in the control (n = 10), DSS (n = 10) and TNBS (n = 8) groups. Cortical BV/TV was 92.2 ± 3.7%, 92.0 ± 3.0% and 92.6 ± 2.7%. Cortical BIC was 81.3 ± 8.8%, 83.2 ± 8.4% and 84.0 ± 7.0%, respectively. No significant differences were observed when comparing the medullary BV/TV and BIC (19.5 ± 6.4%, 16.2 ± 5.6% and 15.4 ± 9.0%) and (48.8 ± 12.9%, 49.2 ± 6.2 and 41.9 ± 11.7%), respectively. Successful induction of colitis was confirmed by loss of body weight and colon morphology. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest bone regeneration around implants is not impaired in chemically induced colitis models. Considering that Crohn's disease can affect any part of the gastrointestinal tract including the mouth, our model only partially reflects the clinical situation.

The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system

How can we explain the decline in support for the European Union (EU) and the idea of European integration after the onset of the great recession in the fall of 2007? Did the economic crisis and the austerity policies that the EU imposed—in tandem with the IMF—on several member countries help cause this drop? While there is some evidence for this direct effect of EU policies, we find that the most significant determinant of trust and support for the EU remains the level of trust in national governments. Based on cue theory and using concepts of diffuse and specific support, we find that support for the EU is derived from evaluations of national politics and policy, which Europeans know far better than the remote political system of the EU. This effect, however, is somewhat muted for those sophisticated Europeans that are more knowledgeable about the EU and are able to form opinions about it independently of the national contexts in which they live. We also find that the recent economic crisis has led to a discernible increase in the number of those who are disillusioned with politics both at the national and the supranational level. We analyze 133 national surveys from 27 EU countries by estimating a series of cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models.

Loss-of-function mutations in the KCNJ8-encoded Kir6.1 K(ATP) channel and sudden infant death syndrome.

BACKGROUND Approximately 10% of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) may stem from cardiac channelopathies. The KCNJ8-encoded Kir6.1 (K(ATP)) channel critically regulates vascular tone and cardiac adaptive response to systemic metabolic stressors, including sepsis. KCNJ8-deficient mice are prone to premature sudden death, particularly with infection. We determined the spectrum, prevalence, and function of KCNJ8 mutations in a large SIDS cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS Using polymerase chain reaction, denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography, and DNA sequencing, comprehensive open reading frame/splice-site mutational analysis of KCNJ8 was performed on genomic DNA isolated from necropsy tissue on 292 unrelated SIDS cases (178 males, 204 white; age, 2.9±1.9 months). KCNJ8 mutations were coexpressed heterologously with SUR2A in COS-1 cells and characterized using whole-cell patch-clamp. Two novel KCNJ8 mutations were identified. A 5-month-old white male had an in-frame deletion (E332del) and a 2-month-old black female had a missense mutation (V346I). Both mutations localized to Kir6.1's C-terminus, involved conserved residues and were absent in 400 and 200 ethnic-matched reference alleles respectively. Both cases were negative for mutations in established channelopathic genes. Compared with WT, the pinacidil-activated K(ATP) current was decreased 45% to 68% for Kir6.1-E332del and 40% to 57% for V346I between -20 mV and 40 mV. CONCLUSIONS Molecular and functional evidence implicated loss-of-function KCNJ8 mutations as a novel pathogenic mechanism in SIDS, possibly by predisposition of a maladaptive cardiac response to systemic metabolic stressors akin to the mouse models of KCNJ8 deficiency.

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

What are the implications of changing treatment delivery models for patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a discussion paper.

An integrated model of care has been used effectively to manage chronic diseases; however, there is limited, yet encouraging evidence on its introduction in the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a chronic gastrointestinal condition. Here, the rationale for and implications of introducing an integrated model of care for patients with IBD are discussed, with a particular focus on psychology input, patient-centred care, efficiency as perceived by patients and doctors, financial implications and the possible means of model introduction. This is a discussion paper on the integrated model of care for IBD against a background of what has been learned from an integrated model of care established in other chronic conditions. Although limited, the emerging data on an integrated model of care in IBD are encouraging with respect to patient outcomes and savings in healthcare costs. In other conditions, the model has been well received by both patients and practitioners, although the loss of autonomy by doctors is listed among its drawbacks. The cost-effectiveness data are now sufficiently convincing to recommend the model's acceptance in principle. The model should be promoted at the policy level rather than by individual practitioners to facilitate equal access for patients with IBD on a larger scale than currently.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.