12 resultados para Parsimony analisys of endemicity
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a viral infection of the central nervous system, is endemic in many Eurasian countries. In Switzerland, TBE risk areas have been characterized by geographic mapping of clinical cases. Since mass vaccination should significantly decrease the number of TBE cases, alternative methods for exposure risk assessment are required. We established a new PCR-based test for the detection of TBE virus (TBEV) in ticks. The protocol involves an automated, high-throughput nucleic acid extraction method (QIAsymphony SP system) and a one-step duplex real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) assay for the detection of European subtype TBEV, including an internal process control. High usability, reproducibility, and equivalent performance for virus concentrations down to 5 x 10(3) viral genome equivalents/microl favor the automated protocol compared to the modified guanidinium thiocyanate-phenol-chloroform extraction procedure. The real-time RT-PCR allows fast, sensitive (limit of detection, 10 RNA copies/microl), and specific (no false-positive test results for other TBEV subtypes, other flaviviruses, or other tick-transmitted pathogens) detection of European subtype TBEV. The new detection method was applied in a national surveillance study, in which 62,343 Ixodes ricinus ticks were screened for the presence of TBE virus. A total of 38 foci of endemicity could be identified, with a mean virus prevalence of 0.46%. The foci do not fully agree with those defined by disease mapping. Therefore, the proposed molecular test procedure constitutes a prerequisite for an appropriate TBE surveillance. Our data are a unique complement of human TBE disease case mapping in Switzerland.
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For the last 10 years, the southern part of Belgium has been recognized as a low-risk area of endemicity for alveolar echinococcosis. This infection, caused by Echinococcus multilocularis, usually induces a severe liver condition and can sometimes spread to other organs. However, alveolar echinococcosis involving bones has been described only very rarely. Here, a fatal case of spondylodiscitis due to E. multilocularis contracted in southern Belgium is reported.
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Background As predicted by theory, traits associated with reproduction often evolve at a comparatively high speed. This is especially the case for courtship behaviour which plays a central role in reproductive isolation. On the other hand, courtship behavioural traits often involve morphological and behavioural adaptations in both sexes; this suggests that their evolution might be under severe constraints, for instance irreversibility of character loss. Here, we use a recently proposed method to retrieve data on a peculiar courtship behavioural trait, i.e. antennal coiling, for 56 species of diplazontine parasitoid wasps. On the basis of a well-resolved phylogeny, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of antennal coiling and associated morphological modifications to study the mode of evolution of this complex character system. Results Our study reveals a large variation in shape, location and ultra-structure of male-specific modifications on the antennae. As for antennal coiling, we find either single-coiling, double-coiling or the absence of coiling; each state is present in multiple genera. Using a model comparison approach, we show that the possession of antennal modifications is highly correlated with antennal coiling behaviour. Ancestral state reconstruction shows that both antennal modifications and antennal coiling are highly congruent with the molecular phylogeny, implying low levels of homoplasy and a comparatively low speed of evolution. Antennal coiling is lost on two independent occasions, and never reacquired. A zero rate of regaining antennal coiling is supported by maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Conclusions Our study provides the first comparative evidence for a tight correlation between male-specific antennal modifications and the use of the antennae during courtship. Antennal coiling in Diplazontinae evolved at a comparatively low rate, and was never reacquired in any of the studied taxa. This suggests that the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on the timescale examined here, and therefore that evolutionary constraints have greatly influenced the evolution of antennal courtship in this group of parasitoid wasps. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on larger timescales, and whether evolutionary constraints have influenced courtship behavioural traits in a similar way in other groups.
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BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The Neck Disability Index frequently is used to measure outcomes of the neck. The statistical rigor of the Neck Disability Index has been assessed with conflicting outcomes. To date, Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Neck Disability Index has not been reported for a suitably large population study. Because the Neck Disability Index is not a condition-specific measure of neck function, initial Confirmatory Factor Analysis should consider problematic neck patients as a homogenous group. PURPOSE: We sought to analyze the factor structure of the Neck Disability Index through Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a symptomatic, homogeneous, neck population, with respect to pooled populations and gender subgroups. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of pooled data. PATIENT SAMPLE: A total of 1,278 symptomatic neck patients (67.5% female, median age 41 years), 803 nonspecific and 475 with whiplash-associated disorder. OUTCOME MEASURES: The Neck Disability Index was used to measure outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed pooled baseline data from six independent studies of patients with neck problems who completed Neck Disability Index questionnaires at baseline. The Confirmatory Factor Analysis was considered in three scenarios: the full sample and separate sexes. Models were compared empirically for best fit. RESULTS: Two-factor models have good psychometric properties across both the pooled and sex subgroups. However, according to these analyses, the one-factor solution is preferable from both a statistical perspective and parsimony. The two-factor model was close to significant for the male subgroup (p<.07) where questions separated into constructs of mental function (pain, reading headaches and concentration) and physical function (personal care, lifting, work, driving, sleep, and recreation). CONCLUSIONS: The Neck Disability Index demonstrated a one-factor structure when analyzed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a pooled, homogenous sample of neck problem patients. However, a two-factor model did approach significance for male subjects where questions separated into constructs of mental and physical function. Further investigations in different conditions, subgroup and sex-specific populations are warranted.
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In this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between the rates of resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa to carbapenems and the levels and diversity of antibiotic consumption. Data were retrospectively collected from 20 acute care hospitals across 3 regions of Switzerland between 2006 and 2010. The main outcome of the present study was the rate of resistance to carbapenems among P. aeruginosa. Putative predictors included the total antibiotic consumption and carbapenem consumption in defined daily doses per 100 bed days, the proportion of very broad-spectrum antibiotics used, and the Peterson index. The present study confirmed a correlation between carbapenem use and carbapenem resistance rates at the hospital and regional levels. The impact of diversifying the range of antibiotics used against P. aeruginosa resistance was suggested by (i) a positive correlation in multivariate analysis between the above-mentioned resistance and the proportion of consumed antibiotics having a very broad spectrum of activity (coefficient = 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 2.96; P < 0.01) and (ii) a negative correlation between the resistance and diversity of antibiotic use as measured by the Peterson homogeneity index (coefficient = -0.52; P < 0.05). We conclude that promoting heterogeneity plus parsimony in the use of antibiotics appears to be a valuable strategy for minimizing the spread of carbapenem resistance in P. aeruginosa in hospitals.
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PCR tests for the rapid and valid detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are now available. We evaluated the costs associated with contact screening for MRSA carriage in a tertiary-care hospital with low MRSA endemicity. Between 1 October 2005 and 28 February 2006, 232 patients were screened during 258 screening episodes (644 samples) for MRSA carriage by GenoType MRSA Direct (Hain Lifescience GmbH, Nehren, Germany). Conventional culture confirmed all PCR results. According to in-house algorithms, 34 of 258 screening episodes (14.7%) would have qualified for preemptive contact isolation, but such isolation was not done upon negative PCR results. MRSA carriage was detected in 4 (1.5%) of 258 screening episodes (i.e., in four patients), of which none qualified for preemptive contact isolation. The use of PCR for all 258 screening episodes added costs (in Swiss francs [CHF]) of CHF 104,328.00 and saved CHF 38,528.00 (for preemptive isolation). The restriction of PCR screening to the 34 episodes that qualified for preemptive contact isolation and screening all others by culture would have lowered costs for PCR to only CHF 11,988.00, a savings of CHF 38,528.00. Therefore, PCR tests are valuable for the rapid detection of MRSA carriers, but high costs require the careful evaluation of their use. In patient populations with low MRSA endemicity, the broad use of PCR probably is not cost-effective.
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Nicaragua is highly endemic for hepatitis A. We aimed to provide an estimate of the change in the age-specific risk of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection based on serological data from cross-sectional and longitudinal samples collected in León, Nicaragua, in 1995/96 (n = 979) and 2003 (n = 494). METHODS The observed age-specific prevalence of anti-HAV antibodies was correlated to the age-specific risk of infection by calculating the probability of freedom from infection at a specific age. RESULTS The proportion of seropositive children aged 1.5 to 6 years was 42% in 2003 compared to 67% in 1995/96. Estimated annual risk of infection for a 3-year old child was 30% (95% CI: 27.0%, 33.1%) in 1995 and 15.5% (95% CI: 12.4%, 19.0%) in 2003. There was good agreement between estimates based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data. The age-specific geometric mean of the quantified anti-HAV antibody levels assessed in 2003 was highest at age 4 and decreased steadily up to age 40. CONCLUSIONS The substantially lower risk of HAV infection in 2003 than in 1995 for young children indicates a beginning transition from high to intermediate endemicity in León, Nicaragua. Consecutive age-stratified serosurveys are useful to assess changes in risk of infection following public health interventions. The decreasing age-specific GMC of anti-HAV antibodies during adulthood in a country with endemic HAV indirectly suggests that ongoing HAV exposure in the community has marginal boosting effect on antibody levels once protective immunity has been established by natural infection.
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Two recombinant Fasciola hepatica antigens, saposin-like protein-2 (recSAP2) and cathepsin L-1 (recCL1), were assessed individually and in combination in enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for the specific serodiagnosis of human fasciolosis in areas of low endemicity as encountered in Central Europe. Antibody detection was conducted using ProteinA/ProteinG (PAG) conjugated to alkaline phosphatase. Test characteristics as well as agreement with results from an ELISA using excretory-secretory products (FhES) from adult stage liver flukes was assessed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, specificity, sensitivity, Youdens J and overall accuracy. Cross-reactivity was assessed using three different groups of serum samples from healthy individuals (n=20), patients with other parasitic infections (n=87) and patients with malignancies (n=121). The best combined diagnostic results for recombinant antigens were obtained using the recSAP2-ELISA (87% sensitivity, 99% specificity and 97% overall accuracy) employing the threshold (cut-off) to discriminate between positive and negative reactions that maximized Youdens J. The findings showed that recSAP2-ELISA can be used for the routine serodiagnosis of chronic fasciolosis in clinical laboratories; the use of the PAG-conjugate offers the opportunity to employ, for example, rabbit hyperimmune serum for the standardization of positive controls.
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Coxiella burnetii infection (Q fever) is a widespread zoonosis with low endemicity in Switzerland, therefore no mandatory public report was required. A cluster of initially ten human cases of acute Q fever infections characterized by prolonged fever, asthenia and mild hepatitis occurred in 2012 in the terraced vineyard of Lavaux. Epidemiological investigations based on patients' interviews and veterinary investigations included environmental sampling as well as Coxiella-specific serological assay and molecular examinations (real-time PCR in vaginal secretions) of suspected sheep. These investigations demonstrated that 43% of sheep carried the bacteria whereas 30% exhibited anti-Coxiella antibodies. Mitigation measures, including limiting human contacts with the flock, hygiene measures, flock vaccination and a public official alert, have permitted the detection of four additional human cases and the avoidance of a much larger outbreak. Since November 2012, mandatory reporting of Q fever to Swiss public health authorities has been reintroduced. A close follow up of human cases will be necessary to identify chronic Q fever.
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OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nasal colonization in hemodialysis patients and to analyze the cost-effectiveness of our screening approach compared with an alternative strategy. DESIGN Screening study and cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS Analysis of twice-yearly MRSA prevalence studies conducted in the hemodialysis unit of a 950-bed tertiary care hospital from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2013. For this purpose, nasal swab samples were cultured on MRSA screening agar (mannitol-oxacillin biplate). RESULTS There were 20 mass screenings during the 10-year study period. We identified 415 patients participating in at least 1 screening, with an average of 4.5 screenings per patient. Of 415 screened patients, 15 (3.6%) were found to be MRSA carriers. The first mass screening in 2004 yielded the highest percentage of MRSA (6/101 [6%]). Only 7 subsequent screenings revealed new MRSA carriers, whereas 4 screenings confirmed previously known carriers, and 8 remained negative. None of the carriers developed MRSA bacteremia during the study period. The total cost of our screening approach, that is, screening and isolation costs, was US $93,930. The total cost of an alternative strategy (ie, no mass screening administered) would be equivalent to costs of isolation of index cases and contact tracing was estimated to be US $5,382 (difference, US $88,548). CONCLUSIONS In an area of low MRSA endemicity (<5%), regular nasal screenings of a high-risk population yielded a low rate of MRSA carriers. Twice-yearly MRSA screening of dialysis patients is unlikely to be cost-effective if MRSA prevalence is low. Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol. 2015;00(0):1-4.
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BACKGROUND The distribution of the enzymopathy glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is linked to areas of high malaria endemicity due to its association with protection from disease. G6PD deficiency is also identified as the cause of severe haemolysis following administration of the anti-malarial drug primaquine and further use of this drug will likely require identification of G6PD deficiency on a population level. Current conventional methods for G6PD screening have various disadvantages for field use. METHODS The WST8/1-methoxy PMS method, recently adapted for field use, was validated using a gold standard enzymatic assay (R&D Diagnostics Ltd ®) in a study involving 235 children under five years of age, who were recruited by random selection from a cohort study in Tororo, Uganda. Blood spots were collected by finger-prick onto filter paper at routine visits, and G6PD activity was determined by both tests. Performance of the WST8/1-methoxy PMS test under various temperature, light, and storage conditions was evaluated. RESULTS The WST8/1-methoxy PMS assay was found to have 72% sensitivity and 98% specificity when compared to the commercial enzymatic assay and the AUC was 0.904, suggesting good agreement. Misclassifications were at borderline values of G6PD activity between mild and normal levels, or related to outlier haemoglobin values (<8.0 gHb/dl or >14 gHb/dl) associated with ongoing anaemia or recent haemolytic crises. Although severe G6PD deficiency was not found in the area, the test enabled identification of low G6PD activity. The assay was found to be highly robust for field use; showing less light sensitivity, good performance over a wide temperature range, and good capacity for medium-to-long term storage. CONCLUSIONS The WST8/1-methoxy PMS assay was comparable to the currently used standard enzymatic test, and offers advantages in terms of cost, storage, portability and use in resource-limited settings. Such features make this test a potential key tool for deployment in the field for point of care assessment prior to primaquine administration in malaria-endemic areas. As with other G6PD tests, outlier haemoglobin levels may confound G6PD level estimation.
Resumo:
We agree with the authors' attitude toward fostering the principle of parsimony (also known as Ockham's razor(3) ) - whereby no unnecessary entities/labels should be posited whenever a phenomenon can be reduced to a set of less complex constituents. Nevertheless, we take issue with some of the shortcuts which we feel they engaged in along their line of reasoning. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.