Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

The influence of sampling design on tree-ring-based quantification of forest growth

Tree-rings offer one of the few possibilities to empirically quantify and reconstruct forest growth dynamics over years to millennia. Contemporaneously with the growing scientific community employing tree-ring parameters, recent research has suggested that commonly applied sampling designs (i.e. how and which trees are selected for dendrochronological sampling) may introduce considerable biases in quantifications of forest responses to environmental change. To date, a systematic assessment of the consequences of sampling design on dendroecological and-climatological conclusions has not yet been performed. Here, we investigate potential biases by sampling a large population of trees and replicating diverse sampling designs. This is achieved by retroactively subsetting the population and specifically testing for biases emerging for climate reconstruction, growth response to climate variability, long-term growth trends, and quantification of forest productivity. We find that commonly applied sampling designs can impart systematic biases of varying magnitude to any type of tree-ring-based investigations, independent of the total number of samples considered. Quantifications of forest growth and productivity are particularly susceptible to biases, whereas growth responses to short-term climate variability are less affected by the choice of sampling design. The world's most frequently applied sampling design, focusing on dominant trees only, can bias absolute growth rates by up to 459% and trends in excess of 200%. Our findings challenge paradigms, where a subset of samples is typically considered to be representative for the entire population. The only two sampling strategies meeting the requirements for all types of investigations are the (i) sampling of all individuals within a fixed area; and (ii) fully randomized selection of trees. This result advertises the consistent implementation of a widely applicable sampling design to simultaneously reduce uncertainties in tree-ring-based quantifications of forest growth and increase the comparability of datasets beyond individual studies, investigators, laboratories, and geographical boundaries.

Primary forest dynamics in lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia, and the role of the understorey

Changes in species composition in two 4–ha plots of lowland dipterocarp rainforest at Danum, Sabah, were measured over ten years (1986 to 1996) for trees greater than or equal to 10 cm girth at breast height (gbh). Each included a lower–slope to ridge gradient. The period lay between two drought events of moderate intensity but the forest showed no large lasting responses, suggesting that its species were well adapted to this regime. Mortality and recruitment rates were not unusual in global or regional comparisons. The forest continued to aggrade from its relatively (for Sabah) low basal area in 1986 and, together with the very open upper canopy structure and an abundance of lianas, this suggests a forest in a late stage of recovery from a major disturbance, yet one continually affected by smaller recent setbacks. Mortality and recruitment rates were not related to population size in 1986, but across subplots recruitment was positively correlated with the density and basal area of small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) forming the dense understorey. Neither rate was related to topography. While species with larger mean gbh had greater relative growth rates (rgr) than smaller ones, subplot mean recruitment rates were correlated with rgr among small trees. Separating understorey species (typically the Euphorbiaceae) from the overstorey (Dipterocarpaceae) showed marked differences in change in mortality with increasing gbh: in the former it increased, in the latter it decreased. Forest processes are centred on this understorey quasi–stratum. The two replicate plots showed a high correspondence in the mortality, recruitment, population changes and growth rates of small trees for the 49 most abundant species in common to both. Overstorey species had higher rgrs than understorey ones, but both showed considerable ranges in mortality and recruitment rates. The supposed trade–off in traits, viz slower rgr, shade tolerance and lower population turnover in the understorey group versus faster potential growth rate, high light responsiveness and high turnover in the overstorey group, was only partly met, as some understorey species were also very dynamic. The forest at Danum, under such a disturbance–recovery regime, can be viewed as having a dynamic equilibrium in functional and structural terms. A second trade–off in shade–tolerance versus drought–tolerance is suggested for among the understorey species. A two–storey (or vertical component) model is proposed where the understorey–overstorey species’ ratio of small stems (currently 2:1) is maintained by a major feedback process. The understorey appears to be an important part of this forest, giving resilience against drought and protecting the overstorey saplings in the long term. This view could be valuable for understanding forest responses to climate change where drought frequency in Borneo is predicted to intensify in the coming decades.

Citizen science reveals unexpected continental-scale evolutionary change in a model organism

Organisms provide some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change and evolutionary responses are becoming apparent in species with short generation times. Large datasets on genetic polymorphism that can provide an historical benchmark against which to test for recent evolutionary responses are very rare, but an exception is found in the brown-lipped banded snail (Cepaea nemoralis). This species is sensitive to its thermal environment and exhibits several polymorphisms of shell colour and banding pattern affecting shell albedo in the majority of populations within its native range in Europe. We tested for evolutionary changes in shell albedo that might have been driven by the warming of the climate in Europe over the last half century by compiling an historical dataset for 6,515 native populations of C. nemoralis and comparing this with new data on nearly 3,000 populations. The new data were sampled mainly in 2009 through the Evolution MegaLab, a citizen science project that engaged thousands of volunteers in 15 countries throughout Europe in the biggest such exercise ever undertaken. A known geographic cline in the frequency of the colour phenotype with the highest albedo (yellow) was shown to have persisted and a difference in colour frequency between woodland and more open habitats was confirmed, but there was no general increase in the frequency of yellow shells. This may have been because snails adapted to a warming climate through behavioural thermoregulation. By contrast, we detected an unexpected decrease in the frequency of Unbanded shells and an increase in the Mid-banded morph. Neither of these evolutionary changes appears to be a direct response to climate change, indicating that the influence of other selective agents, possibly related to changing predation pressure and habitat change with effects on micro-climate.

Adaptive plasticity and genetic divergence in feeding efficiency during parallel adaptive radiation of whitefish (Coregonus spp.)

Parallel phenotypic divergence in replicated adaptive radiations could either result from parallel genetic divergence in response to similar divergent selec- tion regimes or from equivalent phenotypically plastic response to the repeated occurrence of contrasting environments. In post-glacial fish, repli- cated divergence in phenotypes along the benthic-limnetic habitat axis is commonly observed. Here, we use two benthic-limnetic species pairs of whitefish from two Swiss lakes, raised in a common garden design, with reciprocal food treatments in one species pair, to experimentally measure whether feeding efficiency on benthic prey has a genetic basis or whether it underlies phenotypic plasticity (or both). To do so, we offered experimental fish mosquito larvae, partially burried in sand, and measured multiple feed- ing efficiency variables. Our results reveal both, genetic divergence as well as phenotypically plastic divergence in feeding efficiency, with the pheno- typically benthic species raised on benthic food being the most efficient forager on benthic prey. This indicates that both, divergent natural selection on genetically heritable traits and adaptive phenotypic plasticity, are likely important mechanisms driving phenotypic divergence in adaptive radiation.

Experimental evidence for trait utility of gill raker number in adaptive radiation of a north temperate fish

North temperate fish in post-glacial lakes are textbook examples for rapid parallel adaptive radiation into multiple trophic specialists within individual lakes. Speciation repeatedly proceeded along the benthic – limnetic habitat axis, and benthic – limnetic sister species diverge in the number of gill rakers. Yet, the utility of different numbers of gill rakers for consuming benthic vs. limnetic food has only very rarely been experimentally demonstrated. We bred and raised families of a benthic – limnetic species pair of whitefish under common garden conditions to test whether these species (i) show heritable differentiation in feeding efficiency on zooplankton, and (ii) whether varia- tion in feeding efficiency is predicted by variation in gill raker numbers. We used zooplankton of three different size classes to investigate prey size dependency of divergence in feeding efficiency and to investigate the effect strength of variation in the number of gill rakers. Our results show strong interspecific differences in feeding efficiency. These differences are largest when fish were tested with the smallest zooplankton. Importantly, feeding efficiency is significantly positively correlated with the number of gill rakers when using small zooplankton, also when species identity is statistically controlled for. Our results support the hypothesis that a larger number of gill rakers are of adaptive significance for feeding on zooplankton and pro- vide one of the first experimental demonstrations of trait utility of gill raker number when fish feed on zooplankton. These results are consistent with the suggested importance of divergent selection driven feeding adaptation during adaptive radiation of fish in post-glacial lakes.

A two year study of verified spider bites in Switzerland and a review of the European spider bite literature

During a two-year study, all spider bites recorded by Swiss primary care physicians were reported to the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre and all collected spiders were identified. A total of 14 verified spider bites were recorded, involving five species from four families: Zoropsis spinimana (five cases), Cheiracanthium punctorium (four cases), Tegenaria atrica (three cases) and one case of Malthonica ferruginea (¼ Tegenaria ferruginea) (both Agelenidae), and one case of Amaurobius ferox (Amaurobiidae). The bites of all spider species produced relatively mild symptoms. Local symptoms such as moderate to severe pain, circumscribed swelling and redness were the only effects in most cases. Systemic symptoms were rare. There was complete recovery in all cases and all lesions healed completely without further damage or secondary disorders. Following a review of the European spider bite literature, the number of spider species capable of biting humans in Europe is considered to be much larger than could be concluded from this study. Most spider bites are restricted to species living synanthropically, thus promoted by climate and habitat change. The annual frequency of spider bites in Switzerland is estimated at 10 – 100 bites per million inhabitants, but this is predicted to increase due to the continuous arrival of new alien species, many of which have a high potential to establish in urban areas

Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Abundance, Larval Food and Parasitism of a Spider-Hunting Wasp.

Habitat fragmentation strongly affects species distribution and abundance. However, mechanisms underlying fragmentation effects often remain unresolved. Potential mechanisms are (1) reduced dispersal of a species or (2) altered species interactions in fragmented landscapes. We studied if abundance of the spider-hunting and cavity-nesting wasp Trypoxylon figulus Linnaeus (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae) is affected by fragmentation, and then tested for any effect of larval food (bottom up regulation) and parasitism (top down regulation). Trap nests of T. figulus were studied in 30 agricultural landscapes of the Swiss Plateau. The sites varied in the level of isolation from forest (adjacent, in the open landscape but connected, isolated) and in the amount of woody habitat (from 4 % to 74 %). We recorded wasp abundance (number of occupied reed tubes), determined parasitism of brood cells and analysed the diversity and abundance of spiders that were deposited as larval food. Abundances of T. figulus were negatively related to forest cover in the landscape. In addition, T. figulus abundances were highest at forest edges, reduced by 33.1% in connected sites and by 79.4% in isolated sites. The mean number of spiders per brood cell was lowest in isolated sites. Nevertheless, structural equation modelling revealed that this did not directly determine wasp abundance. Parasitism was neither related to the amount of woody habitat nor to isolation and did not change with host density. Therefore, our study showed that the abundance of T. figulus cannot be fully explained by the studied trophic interactions. Further factors, such as dispersal and habitat preference, seem to play a role in the population dynamics of this widespread secondary carnivore in agricultural landscapes.

Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Habitat-specific demography and source-sink dynamics in a population of Siberian jays

P>1. There are a number of models describing population structure, many of which have the capacity to incorporate spatial habitat effects. One such model is the source-sink model, that describes a system where some habitats have a natality that is higher than mortality (source) and others have a mortality that exceeds natality (sink). A source can be maintained in the absence of migration, whereas a sink will go extinct. 2. However, the interaction between population dynamics and habitat quality is complex, and concerns have been raised about the validity of published empirical studies addressing source-sink dynamics. In particular, some of these studies fail to provide data on survival, a significant component in disentangling a sink from a low quality source. Moreover, failing to account for a density-dependent increase in mortality, or decrease in fecundity, can result in a territory being falsely assigned as a sink, when in fact, this density-dependent suppression only decreases the population size to a lower level, hence indicating a 'pseudo-sink'. 3. In this study, we investigate a long-term data set for key components of territory-specific demography (mortality and reproduction) and their relationship to habitat characteristics in the territorial, group-living Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We also assess territory-specific population growth rates (r), to test whether spatial population dynamics are consistent with the ideas of source-sink dynamics. 4. Although average mortality did not differ between sexes, habitat-specific mortality did. Female mortality was higher in older forests, a pattern not observed in males. Male mortality only increased with an increasing amount of open areas. Moreover, reproductive success was higher further away from human settlement, indicating a strong effect of human-associated nest predators. 5. Averaged over all years, 76% of the territories were sources. These territories generally consisted of less open areas, and were located further away from human settlement. 6. The source-sink model provides a tool for modelling demography in distinct habitat patches of different quality, which can aid in identifying key habitats within the landscape, and thus, reduce the risk of implementing unsound management decisions.

Mainstreaming a Decade's Experiences in Watershed Management to Meet the Challenges of Environmental Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas

Like other mountain areas in the world, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Ongoing climate change processes are projected to have a high impact on the HKH region, and accelerated warming has been reported in the Himalayas. These climate change impacts will be superimposed on a variety of other environmental and social stresses, adding to the complexity of the issues. The sustainable use of natural resources is crucial to the long-term stability of the fragile mountain ecosystems in the HKH and to sustain the socio-ecological resilience that forms the basis of sustainable livelihoods in the region. In order to be prepared for these challenges, it is important to take stock of previous research. The ‘People and Resource Dynamics Project’ (PARDYP), implemented by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), provides a variety of participatory options for sustainable land management in the HKH region. The PARDYD project was a research for development project that operated in five middle mountain watersheds across the HKH – two in Nepal and one each in China, India, and Pakistan. The project ran from 1996 to 2006 and focused on addressing the marginalisation of mountain farmers, the use and availability of water, issues relating to land and forest degradation and declining soil fertility, the speed of regeneration of degraded land, and the ability of the natural environment to support the growing needs of the region’s increasing population. A key learning from the project was that the opinion of land users is crucial to the acceptance (and, therefore, successful application) of new technologies and approaches. A major challenge at the end of every project is to promote knowledge sharing and encourage the cross-fertilization of ideas (e.g., in the case of PARDYP, with other middle mountain inhabitants and practitioners in the region) and to share lessons learned with a wider audience. This paper will highlight how the PARDYP findings, including ways of addressing soil fertility and water scarcity, have been mainstreamed in the HKH region through capacity building (international, regional, and national training courses), networking, and the provision of backstopping services. In addition, in view of the challenges in watershed management in the HKH connected to environmental change, the lessons learned from the PARDYP are now being used by ICMOD to define and package climate change proof technology options to address climate change adaptation.