Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context.

Patterned-ground plant communities along a bioclimate gradient in the High Arctic, Canada

Non-sorted circles, non-sorted polygons, and earth hummocks are common ground-surface features ill arctic regions. The), are caused by a variety of physical processes that Occur in permafrost regions including contraction cracking and frost heave. Here we describe the vegetation of patterned-ground forms on zonal sites at three location!: along an N-S transect through the High Arctic of Canada. We made 75 releves on patterned-ground features (circles, polygons, earth hummocks) and adjacent tundra (Interpolygon, intercircle, interhummock areas) and identified and classified the vegetation according to the Braun-Blanquet Method. Environmental factors were correlated with the vegetation data using a nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination (NMDS). We identified eleven commnunities: (1) Puccinellia angustata-Papaver radicalum community in xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone A of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map; (2) Saxifraga-Parmelia omphalodes ssp. glacialis community in hydromesic interpolygon areas of subzone A; (3) Hypogymnia subobscura-Lecanora epibryon community In xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone B; (4) Orthotrichum speciosum-Salix arctica community In xeromesic interpolygon areas of subzone B; (5) Cochlearia groenlandica-Luzula nivalis community in hydromesic earth Mocks Of subzone B; (6) Salix arctica-Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste community in hygric earth hummocks of subzone 13; (7) Puccinellia angustata-Potentilla vahliana community in xeromesic non-sorted circles and bare patches of subzone Q (8) Dryas integrifolia-Carex rupestris community in xeromesic intercircle areas and vegetated patches of subzone C; (9) Braya glabella ssp. purpurascens-Dryas integrifolia community In hydromesic non-sorted circles of subzone Q (10) Dryas integrifolia-Carex aquatilis community in hydromesic intercircle areas of subzone C; and (11) Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste-Carex aquatilis community ill hygric intercircle areas of subzone C. The NMDS ordination displayed the vegetation types with respect to complex environmental gradients. The first axis of the ordination corresponds to a complex soil moisture gradient and the second axis corresponds to a complex geology/elevation/climate gradient. The tundra plots have a greater moss and graminoid cover than the adjacent frost-heave communities. In general, frost-heave features have greater thaw depths, more bare ground, thinner organic horizons, and lower soil moisture than the surrounding tundra. The morphology of the investigated patterned ground forms changes along the climatic gradient, with non-sorted pollygons dominating in the northernmost sites and non-sorted circles dominating, in the southern sites.

Arctic patterned-ground ecosystems: A synthesis of field studies and models along a North American Arctic Transect

Arctic landscapes have visually striking patterns of small polygons, circles, and hummocks. The linkages between the geophysical and biological components of these systems and their responses to climate changes are not well understood. The "Biocomplexity of Patterned Ground Ecosystems" project examined patterned-ground features (PGFs) in all five Arctic bioclimate subzones along an 1800-km trans-Arctic temperature gradient in northern Alaska and northwestern Canada. This paper provides an overview of the transect to illustrate the trends in climate, PGFs, vegetation, n-factors, soils, active-layer depth, and frost heave along the climate gradient. We emphasize the thermal effects of the vegetation and snow on the heat and water fluxes within patterned-ground systems. Four new modeling approaches build on the theme that vegetation controls microscale soil temperature differences between the centers and margins of the PGFs, and these in turn drive the movement of water, affect the formation of aggradation ice, promote differential soil heave, and regulate a host of system propel-ties that affect the ability of plants to colonize the centers of these features. We conclude with an examination of the possible effects of a climate wan-ning on patterned-ground ecosystems.

Modeling the marine aragonite cycle: changes under rising carbon dioxide and its role in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution

The marine aragonite cycle has been included in the global biogeochemical model PISCES to study the role of aragonite in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution. Aragonite production is parameterized as a function of mesozooplankton biomass and aragonite saturation state of ambient waters. Observation-based estimates of marine carbonate production and dissolution are well reproduced by the model and about 60% of the combined CaCO3 water column dissolution from aragonite and calcite is simulated above 2000 m. In contrast, a calcite-only version yields a much smaller fraction. This suggests that the aragonite cycle should be included in models for a realistic representation of CaCO3 dissolution and alkalinity. For the SRES A2 CO2 scenario, production rates of aragonite are projected to notably decrease after 2050. By the end of this century, global aragonite production is reduced by 29% and total CaCO3 production by 19% relative to pre-industrial. Geographically, the effect from increasing atmospheric CO2, and the subsequent reduction in saturation state, is largest in the subpolar and polar areas where the modeled aragonite production is projected to decrease by 65% until 2100.

Electroelasticity of charged black branes

We present the first-order corrected dynamics of fluid branes carrying higher-form charge by obtaining the general form of their equations of motion to pole-dipole order in the absence of external forces. Assuming linear response theory, we characterize the corresponding effective theory of stationary bent charged (an)isotropic fluid branes in terms of two sets of response coefficients, the Young modulus and the piezoelectric moduli. We subsequently find large classes of examples in gravity of this effective theory, by constructing stationary strained charged black brane solutions to first order in a derivative expansion. Using solution generating techniques and bent neutral black branes as a seed solution, we obtain a class of charged black brane geometries carrying smeared Maxwell charge in Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton gravity. In the specific case of ten-dimensional space-time we furthermore use T-duality to generate bent black branes with higher-form charge, including smeared D-branes of type II string theory. By subsequently measuring the bending moment and the electric dipole moment which these geometries acquire due to the strain, we uncover that their form is captured by classical electroelasticity theory. In particular, we find that the Young modulus and the piezoelectric moduli of our strained charged black brane solutions are parameterized by a total of 4 response coefficients, both for the isotropic as well as anisotropic cases.

Quantitative 1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy of human brain: Influence of composition and parameterization of the basis set in linear combination model-fitting

Localized short-echo-time (1)H-MR spectra of human brain contain contributions of many low-molecular-weight metabolites and baseline contributions of macromolecules. Two approaches to model such spectra are compared and the data acquisition sequence, optimized for reproducibility, is presented. Modeling relies on prior knowledge constraints and linear combination of metabolite spectra. Investigated was what can be gained by basis parameterization, i.e., description of basis spectra as sums of parametric lineshapes. Effects of basis composition and addition of experimentally measured macromolecular baselines were investigated also. Both fitting methods yielded quantitatively similar values, model deviations, error estimates, and reproducibility in the evaluation of 64 spectra of human gray and white matter from 40 subjects. Major advantages of parameterized basis functions are the possibilities to evaluate fitting parameters separately, to treat subgroup spectra as independent moieties, and to incorporate deviations from straightforward metabolite models. It was found that most of the 22 basis metabolites used may provide meaningful data when comparing patient cohorts. In individual spectra, sums of closely related metabolites are often more meaningful. Inclusion of a macromolecular basis component leads to relatively small, but significantly different tissue content for most metabolites. It provides a means to quantitate baseline contributions that may contain crucial clinical information.

Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

Analysis of polygonal cracking patterns in chloride-bearing terrains on Mars: Indicators of ancient playa settings

The ancient southern highlands on Mars (~3.5 Gyr old) contain > 600 regions that display spectral evidence in the infrared for the presence of chloride-bearing materials. Many of these locations were previously reported to display polygonal cracking patterns. We studied more than 80 of the chloride-bearing terrains using high-resolution (0.25-0.5 m/pixel) images, as well as near-infrared spectral data, to characterize the surface textures and the associated cracking patterns and mineralogies. Our study indicates that ~75% of the studied locations display polygonal cracks that resemble desiccation cracks, while some resemble salt expansion/thrust polygons. Furthermore, we detect, spectrally, the presence of smectites in association with ~30% of the studied fractured terrains. We note that smectites are a special class of swelling clay minerals that can induce formation of large desiccation cracks. As such, we suggest that the cracking patterns are indicative of the presence of smectite phyllosilicates even in the absence of spectral confirmation. Our results suggest that many chloride-bearing terrains have a lacustrine origin and a geologic setting similar to playas on Earth. Such locations would have contained ephemeral lakes that may have undergone repeated cycles of desiccation and recharging by a near-surface fluctuating water table in order to account for the salt-phyllosilicates associations. These results have notable implications for the ancient hydrology of Mars. We propose that the morphologies and sizes of the polygonal cracks can be used as paleoenvironmental, as well as lithological, indicators that could be helpful in planning future missions.

On the interaction of attentional focus and gaze: The quiet eye inhibits focus-related performance decrements

To date, despite a large body of evidence in favor of the advantage of an effect-related focus of attention compared with a movement-related focus of attention in motor control and learning, the role of vision in this context remains unclear. Therefore, in a golf-putting study, the relation between attentional focus and gaze behavior (in particular, quiet eye, or QE) was investigated. First, the advantage of an effect-related focus, as well as of a long QE duration, could be replicated. Furthermore, in the online-demanding task of golf putting, high performance was associated with later QE offsets. Most decisively, an interaction between attentional focus and gaze behavior was revealed in such a way that the efficiency of the QE selectively manifested under movement-related focus instructions. As these findings suggest neither additive effects nor a causal chain, an alternative hypothesis is introduced explaining positive QE effects by the inhibition of not-to-be parameterized movement variants.

Tracking water pathways in steep hillslopes by d18O depth profiles of soil water

Assessing temporal variations in soil water flow is important, especially at the hillslope scale, to identify mechanisms of runoff and flood generation and pathways for nutrients and pollutants in soils. While surface processes are well considered and parameterized, the assessment of subsurface processes at the hillslope scale is still challenging since measurement of hydrological pathways is connected to high efforts in time, money and personnel work. The latter might not even be possible in alpine environments with harsh winter processes. Soil water stable isotope profiles may offer a time-integrating fingerprint of subsurface water pathways. In this study, we investigated the suitability of soil water stable isotope (d18O) depth profiles to identify water flow paths along two transects of steep subalpine hillslopes in the Swiss Alps. We applied a one-dimensional advection–dispersion model using d18O values of precipitation (ranging from _24.7 to _2.9‰) as input data to simulate the d18O profiles of soil water. The variability of d18O values with depth within each soil profile and a comparison of the simulated and measured d18O profiles were used to infer information about subsurface hydrological pathways. The temporal pattern of d18O in precipitation was found in several profiles, ranging from _14.5 to _4.0‰. This suggests that vertical percolation plays an important role even at slope angles of up to 46_. Lateral subsurface flow and/or mixing of soil water at lower slope angles might occur in deeper soil layers and at sites near a small stream. The difference between several observed and simulated d18O profiles revealed spatially highly variable infiltration patterns during the snowmelt periods: The d18O value of snow (_17.7 ± 1.9‰) was absent in several measured d18O profiles but present in the respective simulated d18O profiles. This indicated overland flow and/or preferential flow through the soil profile during the melt period. The applied methods proved to be a fast and promising tool to obtain time-integrated information on soil water flow paths at the hillslope scale in steep subalpine slopes.

Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.