Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Predicting and monitoring cancer treatment response with diffusion-weighted MRI

An imaging biomarker that would provide for an early quantitative metric of clinical treatment response in cancer patients would provide for a paradigm shift in cancer care. Currently, nonimage based clinical outcome metrics include morphology, clinical, and laboratory parameters, however, these are obtained relatively late following treatment. Diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) holds promise for use as a cancer treatment response biomarker as it is sensitive to macromolecular and microstructural changes which can occur at the cellular level earlier than anatomical changes during therapy. Studies have shown that successful treatment of many tumor types can be detected using DW-MRI as an early increase in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. Additionally, low pretreatment ADC values of various tumors are often predictive of better outcome. These capabilities, once validated, could provide for an important opportunity to individualize therapy thereby minimizing unnecessary systemic toxicity associated with ineffective therapies with the additional advantage of improving overall patient health care and associated costs. In this report, we provide a brief technical overview of DW-MRI acquisition protocols, quantitative image analysis approaches and review studies which have implemented DW-MRI for the purpose of early prediction of cancer treatment response.

Change over time in posttraumatic stress caused by myocardial infarction and predicting variables

The traumatic experience of a heart attack may evolve into symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, which can be diagnosed at the earliest 1 month after myocardial infarction (MI). While several predictors of posttraumatic stress in the first year after MI have been described, we particularly sought to identify longer-term predictors and predictors of change in posttraumatic stress over time.

Pressure-cornea-vascular index (PCVI) for predicting disease progression in normal tension glaucoma

It has been shown that the pressure-to-cornea index (PCI), which estimates the relative effects of intraocular pressure (IOP) and central corneal thickness (CCT), may differentiate between glaucoma and non-glaucoma states. The authors investigated the utility of the pressure-cornea-vascular index (PCVI) in predicting field-progression in patients with normal tension glaucoma (NTG).

Predicting the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis by two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact compared to bone biopsy for the diagnosis of diabetic toe osteomyelitis. The same nurse and orthopaedic surgeon obtained all samples: sample A-1: bone contact swabbing through the ulcer; sample A-2: a second culture swabbing from the bone surface within 24 h; sample B: surgical bone biopsy in the operating theatre. The kappa statistic measure between samples A-1 and A-2 (bone contact swabs) indicated 82.35% agreement. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the two samples A compared to B were 96%, 79%, 92% and 88%, respectively, for the causative pathogen. These results were similar with prior antibiotic treatment, discordant bone surface swabs or with monomicrobial infections. As a conclusion, two consecutive diabetic toe cultures with bone contact accurately predict the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis in 90% of cases.

Factors predicting protracted improvement after pallidal DBS for primary dystonia: the role of age and disease duration

In many patients, optimal results after pallidal deep brain stimulation (DBS) for primary dystonia may appear over several months, possibly beyond 1 year after implant. In order to elucidate the factors predicting such protracted clinical effect, we retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 44 patients with primary dystonia and bilateral pallidal DBS implants. Patients with fixed skeletal deformities, as well as those with a history of prior ablative procedures, were excluded. The Burke-Fahn-Marsden Dystonia Rating Scale (BFMDRS) scores at baseline, 1 and 3 years after DBS were used to evaluate clinical outcome. All subjects showed a significant improvement after DBS implants (mean BFMDRS improvement of 74.9% at 1 year and 82.6% at 3 years). Disease duration (DD, median 15 years, range 2-42) and age at surgery (AS, median 31 years, range 10-59) showed a significant negative correlation with DBS outcome at 1 and 3 years. A partition analysis, using DD and AS, clustered subjects into three groups: (1) younger subjects with shorter DD (n = 19, AS < 27, DD ? 17); (2) older subjects with shorter DD (n = 8, DD ? 17, AS ? 27); (3) older subjects with longer DD (n = 17, DD > 17, AS ? 27). Younger patients with short DD benefitted more and faster than older patients, who however continued to improve 10% on average 1 year after DBS implants. Our data suggest that subjects with short DD may expect to achieve a better general outcome than those with longer DD and that AS may influence the time necessary to achieve maximal clinical response.

Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Prognostic value of microvascular invasion in predicting the cancer specific survival and risk of metastatic disease in renal cell carcinoma: a multicenter investigation

While microvascular invasion is an accepted risk factor in various cancers, its prognostic role in renal cell carcinoma is still unclear. Therefore, a large multicenter study examining the experience of 5 international institutions was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of microvascular invasion in the occurrence of metastases and cancer specific survival.