Is intracranial aneurysm rupture related to solar activity?

Objective: A number of intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for the rupture of intracranial aneurysms have been identified. Still, the cause precipitating aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. In addition, it has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. As solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity we decided to study ist association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population. Method: Patient data was extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 patients with angiography-proven aSAH treated at seven Swiss neurovascular centers between 01/01/2009 – 12/31/2011. The number of aneurysm rupture per day, week, month (Daily/Weekly/Monthly Rupture Frequency = RF) was measured and correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux (F10.7 index), solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index) using Poisson regression analysis. Results: Of a consecutive series of 918 cases of SAH, precise determination of the date of symptom onset was possible in 816 (88.9%). During the period of interest there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27 and 12 days with 1, 2, 3, and 4 ruptures per day. Five or 6 ruptures were only noted on a single day each. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and aneurysm rupture (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719 – 1.008894; p<0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. As the F10.7 index is known to correlate well with the Space Environment Services Center (SESC) sunspot number, we performed additional analyses on SESC sunspot number and sunspot area. Here, a likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95%CI 1.001864 – 1.004965; p<0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95%CI 1.000249 – 1.000589; p<0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no correlation with RF. Conclusions: Using valid methods, we found higher radioflux, sunspot number and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. Since we were using rupture frequencies rather than incidences and because we cannot explain the physiological basis of this statistical association, the clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully. Future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.

Precise Orbit Determination of Low Earth Satellites at AIUB using GPS and SLR data

An ever increasing number of low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites is, or will be, equipped with retro-reflectors for Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and on-board receivers to collect observations from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning Sys- tem (GPS) and the Russian GLONASS and the European Galileo systems in the future. At the Astronomical Insti- tute of the University of Bern (AIUB) LEO precise or- bit determination (POD) using either GPS or SLR data is performed for a wide range of applications for satellites at different altitudes. For this purpose the classical numeri- cal integration techniques, as also used for dynamic orbit determination of satellites at high altitudes, are extended by pseudo-stochastic orbit modeling techniques to effi- ciently cope with potential force model deficiencies for satellites at low altitudes. Accuracies of better than 2 cm may be achieved by pseudo-stochastic orbit modeling for satellites at very low altitudes such as for the GPS-based POD of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circula- tion Explorer (GOCE).

GOCE: precise orbit determination for the entire mission

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) was the first Earth explorer core mission of the European Space Agency. It was launched on March 17, 2009 into a Sun-synchronous dusk-dawn orbit and re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere on November 11, 2013. The satellite altitude was between 255 and 225 km for the measurement phases. The European GOCE Gravity consortium is responsible for the Level 1b to Level 2 data processing in the frame of the GOCE High-level processing facility (HPF). The Precise Science Orbit (PSO) is one Level 2 product, which was produced under the responsibility of the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern within the HPF. This PSO product has been continuously delivered during the entire mission. Regular checks guaranteed a high consistency and quality of the orbits. A correlation between solar activity, GPS data availability and quality of the orbits was found. The accuracy of the kinematic orbit primarily suffers from this. Improvements in modeling the range corrections at the retro-reflector array for the SLR measurements were made and implemented in the independent SLR validation for the GOCE PSO products. The satellite laser ranging (SLR) validation finally states an orbit accuracy of 2.42 cm for the kinematic and 1.84 cm for the reduced-dynamic orbits over the entire mission. The common-mode accelerations from the GOCE gradiometer were not used for the official PSO product, but in addition to the operational HPF work a study was performed to investigate to which extent common-mode accelerations improve the reduced-dynamic orbit determination results. The accelerometer data may be used to derive realistic constraints for the empirical accelerations estimated for the reduced-dynamic orbit determination, which already improves the orbit quality. On top of that the accelerometer data may further improve the orbit quality if realistic constraints and state-of-the-art background models such as gravity field and ocean tide models are used for the reduced-dynamic orbit determination.

GOCE precise orbit determination for the entire Mission – challenges in the final mission phase

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), ESA’s first Earth Explorer core mission, was launched on March 17, 2009 into a sunsynchronous dusk-dawn orbit and eventually re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere on November 11, 2013. A precise science orbit (PSO) product was provided by the GOCE High-level Processing Facility (HPF) from the GPS high-low Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (hl-SST) data from the beginning until the very last days of the mission. We recapitulate the PSO procedure and refer to the results achieved until the official end of the GOCE mission on October 21, 2013, where independent validations with Satellite Laser ranging (SLR) measurements confirmed a high quality of the PSO product of about 2 cm 1-D RMS. We then focus on the period after the official end of the mission, where orbits could still be determined thanks to the continuously running GPS receivers delivering high quality data until a few hours before the re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. We address the challenges encountered for orbit determination during these last days and report on adaptions in the PSO procedure to also obtain good orbit results at the unprecedented low orbital altitudes below 224 km.