Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

Hypercoagulation and hyperkinetic blood pressure indicative of physiological loss-of-control despite behavioural control in Africans: The SABPA study.

OBJECTIVES A dissociation between behavioural (in-control) and physiological parameters (indicating loss-of-control) is associated with cardiovascular risk in defensive coping (DefS) Africans. We evaluated relationships between DefS, sub-clinical atherosclerosis, low-grade inflammation and hypercoagulation in a bi-ethnic sex cohort. METHODS Black (Africans) and white Africans (Caucasians) (n = 375; aged 44.6 ± 9.7 years) were included. Ambulatory BP, vascular structure (left carotid cross-sectional wall area (L-CSWA) and plaque counts), and markers of coagulation and inflammation were quantified. Ethnicity/coping style interaction was revealed only in DefS participants. RESULTS A hypertensive state, less plaque, low-grade inflammation, and hypercoagulation were more prevalent in DefS Africans (27-84%) than DefS Caucasians (18-41%). Regression analyses demonstrated associations between L-CSWA and 24 hour systolic BP (R(2) = 0.38; β = 0.78; p < 0.05) in DefS African men but not in DefS African women or Caucasians. No associations between L-CSWA and coagulation markers were evident. CONCLUSION Novel findings revealed hypercoagulation, low-grade inflammation and hyperkinetic BP (physiological loss-of-control responses) in DefS African men. Coupled to a self-reported in-control DefS behavioural profile, this reflects dissociation between behaviour and physiology. It may explain changes in vascular structure, increasing cerebrovascular disease risk in a state of hyper-vigilant coping.

Situational adaptiveness of control orientation mediates relation between fixed-world view and youth well-being in three cultures

When proposing primary control (changing the world to fit self)/secondary control (changing self to fit the world) theory, Weisz et al. (1984) argued for the importance of the “serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can” (p. 967), and the wisdom to choose the right control strategy that fits the context. Although the dual processes of control theory generated hundreds of empirical studies, most of them focused on the dichotomy of PC and SC, with none of these tapped into the critical concept: individuals’ ability to know when to use what. This project addressed this issue by using scenario questions to study the impact of situationally adaptive control strategies on youth well-being. To understand the antecedents of youths’ preference for PC or SC, we also connected PCSC theory with Dweck’s implicit theory about the changeability of the world. We hypothesized that youths’ belief about the world’s changeability impacts how difficult it was for them to choose situationally adaptive control orientation, which then impacts their well-being. This study included adolescents and emerging adults between the ages of 18 and 28 years (Mean = 20.87 years) from the US (n = 98), China (n = 100), and Switzerland (n = 103). Participants answered a questionnaire including a measure of implicit theories about the fixedness of the external world, a scenario-based measure of control orientation, and several measures of well-being. Preliminary analyses of the scenario-based control orientation measures showed striking cross-cultural similarity of preferred control responses: while for three of the six scenarios primary control was the predominately chosen control response in all cultures, for the other three scenarios secondary control was the predominately chosen response. This suggested that youths across cultures are aware that some situations call for primary control, while others demand secondary control. We considered the control strategy winning the majority of the votes to be the strategy that is situationally adaptive. The results of a multi-group structural equation mediation model with the extent of belief in a fixed world as independent variable, the difficulties of carrying out the respective adaptive versus non-adaptive control responses as two mediating variables and the latent well-being variable as dependent variable showed a cross-culturally similar pattern of effects: a belief in a fixed world was significantly related to higher difficulties in carrying out the normative as well as the non-normative control response, but only the difficulty of carrying out the normative control response (be it primary control in situations where primary control is normative or secondary control in situations where secondary control is normative) was significantly related to a lower reported well-being (while the difficulty of carrying out the non-normative response was unrelated to well-being). While previous research focused on cross-cultural differences on the choice of PC or SC, this study shed light on the universal necessity of applying the right kind of control to fit the situation.

Family Influence and Psychological Ownership: The Mediating Effects of Control

The concept of psychological ownership (PO) has been increasingly researched in the last years. However, knowledge about the emergence of PO is still scarce. So far, no study has investigated the development of PO in the context of family firms. We aim to investigate the emergence of PO in that context by drawing on the family´s influence on the business as a decisive factor. We thereby elaborate on the effect of family influence on PO, mediated by non-family managers´ perceived control over the company.

Variability of lung function predicts loss of asthma control following withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroid treatment

BACKGROUND One aspect of a multidimensional approach to understanding asthma as a complex dynamic disease is to study how lung function varies with time. Variability measures of lung function have been shown to predict response to beta(2)-agonist treatment. An investigation was conducted to determine whether mean, coefficient of variation (CV) or autocorrelation, a measure of short-term memory, of peak expiratory flow (PEF) could predict loss of asthma control following withdrawal of regular inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment, using data from a previous study. METHODS 87 adult patients with mild to moderate asthma who had been taking ICS at a constant dose for at least 6 months were monitored for 2-4 weeks. ICS was then withdrawn and monitoring continued until loss of control occurred as per predefined criteria. Twice-daily PEF was recorded during monitoring. Associations between loss of control and mean, CV and autocorrelation of morning PEF within 2 weeks pre- and post-ICS withdrawal were assessed using Cox regression analysis. Predictive utility was assessed using receiver operator characteristics. RESULTS 53 out of 87 patients had sufficient PEF data over the required analysis period. The mean (389 vs 370 l/min, p<0.0001) and CV (4.5% vs 5.6%, p=0.007) but not autocorrelation of PEF changed significantly from prewithdrawal to postwithdrawal in subjects who subsequently lost control, and were unaltered in those who did not. These changes were related to time to loss of control. CV was the most consistent predictor, with similar sensitivity and sensitivity to exhaled nitric oxide. CONCLUSION A simple, easy to obtain variability measure of daily lung function such as the CV may predict loss of asthma control within the first 2 weeks of ICS withdrawal.

Quantitative T2 mapping of knee cartilage: differentiation of healthy control cartilage and cartilage repair tissue in the knee with unloading - initial results

Purpose: To prospectively determine on T2 cartilage maps the effect of unloading during a clinical magnetic resonance (MR) examination in the postoperative follow-up of patients after matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation (MACT) of the knee joint. Materials and Methods: Ethical approval for this study was provided by the local ethics commission, and written informed consent was obtained. Thirty patients (mean age, 35.4 years +/- 10.5) with a mean postoperative follow-up period of 29.1 months +/- 24.4 were enrolled. A multiecho spin-echo T2-weighted sequence was performed at the beginning (early unloading) and end (late unloading) of the MR examination, with an interval of 45 minutes. Mean and zonal region of interest T2 measurements were obtained in control cartilage and cartilage repair tissue. Statistical analysis of variance was performed. Results: The change in T2 values of control cartilage (early unloading, 50.2 msec +/- 8.4; late unloading, 51.3 msec +/- 8.5) was less pronounced than the change in T2 values of cartilage repair tissue (early unloading, 51.8 msec +/- 11.7; late unloading, 56.1 msec +/- 14.4) (P = .024). The difference between control cartilage and cartilage repair tissue was not significant for early unloading (P = .314) but was significant for late unloading (P = .036). Zonal T2 measurements revealed a higher dependency on unloading for the superficial cartilage layer. Conclusion: Our results suggest that T2 relaxation can be used to assess early and late unloading values of articular cartilage in a clinical setting and that the time point of the quantitative T2 measurement affects the differentiation between native and abnormal articular cartilage. (c) RSNA, 2010.

Prolonged amelioration of acute lung allograft rejection by overexpression of human interleukin-10 under control of a long acting ubiquitin C promoter in rats

BACKGROUND: The prolonged effect of electroporation-mediated human interleukin-10 (hIL-10) overexpression in skeletal muscle under the control of the constitutional polyubiquitin C promoter (pUb hIL-10) on rat lung allograft rejection was evaluated. METHODS: Left lung allotransplantation was performed from Brown-Norway to Fischer-F344 rats. Either 2.5 mug pCIK hIL-10 (hIL-10/cytomegalovirus early promoter enhancer) alone (Group I/sacrifice Day 5 and II/sacrifice Day 10) or in combination with 2.5 mug pUb hIL-10 (hIL-10/UbC promoter; Group III/sacrifice Day 10) were injected into the tibialis anterior muscle of the recipient, followed by electroporation 24 hours before transplantation. Animals in Control Groups IV and V without gene transfer were euthanized on Day 5 and 10, respectively. All animals received a daily non-therapeutic dose of cyclosporine A (2.5 mg/kg). RESULTS: In Control Group IV, complete rejection (median A3B3) was noted on Day 5 with a Pao(2) of 43 +/- 9 mm Hg. In recipients of Control Group V, measurement of gas exchange on Day 10 and rejection grading was impossible because of complete destruction of the allograft. Group I animals on Day 5 (233 +/- 123 mm Hg; p = 0.02 vs Group IV) and Group II animals on Day 10 (150 +/- 139 mm Hg; p = 0.15 vs Group IV) demonstrated improved graft function. Graft function in Group III was further improved on Day 10 (299 +/- 123 mm Hg; p = 0.002 vs Group IV; p = 0.05 vs Group II; p = 0.36 vs Group I). Rejection was significantly reduced in Group III (median, A2B2) compared with Group II (median, A4B3; p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Interleukin-10 overexpression under control of the constitutive ubiquitin C promoter ameliorates acute rejection and preserves lung graft function for a prolonged time.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Perceived malleability of self versus the world and its impact on youths’ control orientation and well-being in the US, Germany, and India

Primary control is defined as changing the world to fit the self, while secondary control is defined as changing the self to fit the world. To understand why different individuals prefer different kinds of control processes, we proposed a research project looking at US, German and Indian young adults. We hypothesize that theories of self and the world (fixed vs. malleable; Dweck, 1999) affect the prevailing mode of control used. Furthermore, adolescents’ cultural background is assumed to affect their self-world theories as well as the adaptiveness of specific modes of control. For example, in the US, where the self is tended to be seen as fixed and the world as malleable, primary control prevails and is more adaptive than secondary control while the reverse is expected for India. We present the theoretical outline and methodology of the study as well as first results.