18 resultados para Online learning, prediction with expert advice, combinato rial prediction, easy data

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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In questionable cystic fibrosis (CF), mild or monosymptomatic phenotypes frequently cause diagnostic difficulties despite detailed algorithms. CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR)-mediated ion transport can be studied ex vivo in rectal biopsies by intestinal current measurement (ICM).

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A search for scalar particles decaying via narrow resonances into two photons in the mass range 65–600 GeV is performed using 20.3  fb −1 of s √ =8  TeV pp collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The recently discovered Higgs boson is treated as a background. No significant evidence for an additional signal is observed. The results are presented as limits at the 95% confidence level on the production cross section of a scalar boson times branching ratio into two photons, in a fiducial volume where the reconstruction efficiency is approximately independent of the event topology. The upper limits set extend over a considerably wider mass range than previous searches.

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Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

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Learning by reinforcement is important in shaping animal behavior, and in particular in behavioral decision making. Such decision making is likely to involve the integration of many synaptic events in space and time. However, using a single reinforcement signal to modulate synaptic plasticity, as suggested in classical reinforcement learning algorithms, a twofold problem arises. Different synapses will have contributed differently to the behavioral decision, and even for one and the same synapse, releases at different times may have had different effects. Here we present a plasticity rule which solves this spatio-temporal credit assignment problem in a population of spiking neurons. The learning rule is spike-time dependent and maximizes the expected reward by following its stochastic gradient. Synaptic plasticity is modulated not only by the reward, but also by a population feedback signal. While this additional signal solves the spatial component of the problem, the temporal one is solved by means of synaptic eligibility traces. In contrast to temporal difference (TD) based approaches to reinforcement learning, our rule is explicit with regard to the assumed biophysical mechanisms. Neurotransmitter concentrations determine plasticity and learning occurs fully online. Further, it works even if the task to be learned is non-Markovian, i.e. when reinforcement is not determined by the current state of the system but may also depend on past events. The performance of the model is assessed by studying three non-Markovian tasks. In the first task, the reward is delayed beyond the last action with non-related stimuli and actions appearing in between. The second task involves an action sequence which is itself extended in time and reward is only delivered at the last action, as it is the case in any type of board-game. The third task is the inspection game that has been studied in neuroeconomics, where an inspector tries to prevent a worker from shirking. Applying our algorithm to this game yields a learning behavior which is consistent with behavioral data from humans and monkeys, revealing themselves properties of a mixed Nash equilibrium. The examples show that our neuronal implementation of reward based learning copes with delayed and stochastic reward delivery, and also with the learning of mixed strategies in two-opponent games.

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Disturbances in reward processing have been implicated in bulimia nervosa (BN). Abnormalities in processing reward-related stimuli might be linked to dysfunctions of the catecholaminergic neurotransmitter system, but findings have been inconclusive. A powerful way to investigate the relationship between catecholaminergic function and behavior is to examine behavioral changes in response to experimental catecholamine depletion (CD). The purpose of this study was to uncover putative catecholaminergic dysfunction in remitted subjects with BN who performed a reinforcement-learning task after CD. CD was achieved by oral alpha-methyl-para-tyrosine (AMPT) in 19 unmedicated female subjects with remitted BN (rBN) and 28 demographically matched healthy female controls (HC). Sham depletion administered identical capsules containing diphenhydramine. The study design consisted of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover, single-site experimental trial. The main outcome measures were reward learning in a probabilistic reward task analyzed using signal-detection theory. Secondary outcome measures included self-report assessments, including the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire. Relative to healthy controls, rBN subjects were characterized by blunted reward learning in the AMPT-but not in placebo-condition. Highlighting the specificity of these findings, groups did not differ in their ability to perceptually distinguish between stimuli. Increased CD-induced anhedonic (but not eating disorder) symptoms were associated with a reduced response bias toward a more frequently rewarded stimulus. In conclusion, under CD, rBN subjects showed reduced reward learning compared with healthy control subjects. These deficits uncover disturbance of the central reward processing systems in rBN related to altered brain catecholamine levels, which might reflect a trait-like deficit increasing vulnerability to BN.

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The newly released online statistics function of Spine Tango allows comparison of own data against the aggregated results of the data pool that all other participants generate. This comparison can be considered a very simple way of benchmarking, which means that the quality of what one organization does is compared with other similar organizations. The goal is to make changes towards better practice if benchmarking shows inferior results compared with the pool. There are, however, pitfalls in this simplified way of comparing data that can result in confounding. This means that important influential factors can make results appear better or worse than they are in reality and these factors can only be identified and neutralized in a multiple regression analysis performed by a statistical expert. Comparing input variables, confounding is less of a problem than comparing outcome variables. Therefore, the potentials and limitations of automated online comparisons need to be considered when interpreting the results of the benchmarking procedure.

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Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

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OBJECTIVES Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. RESULTS From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. CONCLUSIONS Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care.

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PURPOSE: Understanding the learning styles of individuals may assist in the tailoring of an educational program to optimize learning. General surgery faculty and residents have been characterized previously as having a tendency toward particular learning styles. We seek to understand better the learning styles of general surgery residents and differences that may exist within the population. METHODS: The Kolb Learning Style Inventory was administered yearly to general surgery residents at the University of Cincinnati from 1994 to 2006. This tool allows characterization of learning styles into 4 groups: converging, accommodating, assimilating, and diverging. The converging learning style involves education by actively solving problems. The accommodating learning style uses emotion and interpersonal relationships. The assimilating learning style learns by abstract logic. The diverging learning style learns best by observation. Chi-square analysis and analysis of variance were performed to determine significance. RESULTS: Surveys from 1994 to 2006 (91 residents, 325 responses) were analyzed. The prevalent learning style was converging (185, 57%), followed by assimilating (58, 18%), accommodating (44, 14%), and diverging (38, 12%). At the PGY 1 and 2 levels, male and female residents differed in learning style, with the accommodating learning style being relatively more frequent in women and assimilating learning style more frequent in men (Table 1, p < or = 0.001, chi-square test). Interestingly, learning style did not seem to change with advancing PGY level within the program, which suggests that individual learning styles may be constant throughout residency training. If a resident's learning style changed, it tended to be to converging. In addition, no relation exists between learning style and participation in dedicated basic science training or performance on the ABSIT/SBSE. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggests that learning style differs between male and female general surgery residents but not with PGY level or ABSIT/SBSE performance. A greater understanding of individual learning styles may allow more refinement and tailoring of surgical programs.

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The assumption that social skills are necessary ingredients of collaborative learning is well established but rarely empirically tested. In addition, most theories on collaborative learning focus on social skills only at the personal level, while the social skill configurations within a learning group might be of equal importance. Using the integrative framework, this study investigates which social skills at the personal level and at the group level are predictive of task-related e-mail communication, satisfaction with performance and perceived quality of collaboration. Data collection took place in a technology-enhanced long-term project-based learning setting for pre-service teachers. For data collection, two questionnaires were used, one at the beginning and one at the end of the learning cycle which lasted 3 months. During the project phase, the e-mail communication between group members was captured as well. The investigation of 60 project groups (N = 155 for the questionnaires; group size: two or three students) and 33 groups for the e-mail communication (N = 83) revealed that personal social skills played only a minor role compared to group level configurations of social skills in predicting satisfaction with performance, perceived quality of collaboration and communication behaviour. Members from groups that showed a high and/or homogeneous configuration of specific social skills (e.g., cooperation/compromising, leadership) usually were more satisfied and saw their group as more efficient than members from groups with a low and/or heterogeneous configuration of skills.

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OBJECTIVES Dental satisfaction is associated with continuity of dental care, compliance with dentist advice, and positive health outcomes. It is expected that people with higher dental fear might have less dental satisfaction because of more negative dental experiences. The objective of this study was to examine satisfaction and reasons for satisfaction with dental practitioners in Switzerland and variations by dental fear. METHODS A national sample of 1,129 Swiss residents aged 15-74 (mean = 43.2 years) completed a personal interview at their home with questions assessing dental fear, dental service use, general satisfaction with their dentist, and reasons for satisfaction or dissatisfaction. RESULTS Overall, 47.9 percent of participants responded that they were satisfied with their dentist and 47.6 percent that they were very satisfied. Satisfaction differed significantly by gender, language spoken, region of residence, and educational attainment. Greater dental fear was significantly associated with greater dissatisfaction with the dentist. The percentage of people who were very satisfied with the dentist ranged from 56.0 percent among people with no fear to 30.5 percent for participants with "quite a lot" of fear but was higher (44.4 percent) for people who stated that they were "very much" afraid of the dentist. The most common reasons attributed for satisfaction with dentists were interpersonal characteristics of the dentist and staff. People with "quite a lot" of fear were found to endorse these sentiments least. CONCLUSIONS Although higher dental fear was associated with more dissatisfaction with the dentist, the level of satisfaction among fearful individuals in Switzerland is still high.

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Psychological assessment is a central component of applied sport psychology. Despite obvious and well-documented advantages of diagnostic online tools, there is a lack of a system for such tools for sport psychologists so far in Switzerland. Having the most frequently used questionnaires available online in one single tool for all listed Swiss sport psychologists would make the work of practitioners a lot easier and less time consuming. Therefore, the main goal of this project is to develop a diagnostic online tool system with the possibility to make available different questionnaires often used in sport psychology. Furthermore, we intend to survey status and use of this diagnostic online tool system and the questionnaires by Swiss sport psychologists. A specific challenge is to limit the access to qualified sport psychologists and to secure the confidentiality for the client. In particular, approved sport psychologists get an individual code for each of their athletes for the required questionnaire. With the help of this code, athletes can access the test via a secure website at any place of the world. As soon as they complete and submit the online questionnaire, analysed and interpreted data reach the sport psychologist via E-Mail, which is timesaving and easy applicable for the sport psychologist. Furthermore, data are available for interpretation with athletes and documentation of individual development over time is possible. Later on, completed and anonymised questionnaires will be collected and analysed. Bigger number of collected data give more insight in the psychometric properties, thus helping to improve and further develop the questionnaires. In this presentation, we demonstrate the tool and its feasibility using the German version of the Test of Performance Strategies (TOPS, Schmid et al., 2010). To conclude, this diagnostic online tool system offers new possibilities for sport psychologists working as practitioner.