Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Two independent and primitive envelopes of the bilobate nucleus of comet 67P

The factors shaping cometary nuclei are still largely unknown, but could be the result of concurrent effects of evolutionary(1,2) and primordial processes(3,4). The peculiar bilobed shape of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko may be the result of the fusion of two objects that were once separate or the result of a localized excavation by outgassing at the interface between the two lobes(5). Here we report that the comet's major lobe is enveloped by a nearly continuous set of strata, up to 650 metres thick, which are independent of an analogous stratified envelope on the minor lobe. Gravity vectors computed for the two lobes separately are closer to perpendicular to the strata than those calculated for the entire nucleus and adjacent to the neck separating the two lobes. Therefore comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is an accreted body of two distinct objects with 'onion-like' stratification, which formed before they merged. We conclude that gentle, low-velocity collisions occurred between two fully formed kilometre-sized cometesimals in the early stages of the Solar System. The notable structural similarities between the two lobes of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko indicate that the early-forming cometesimals experienced similar primordial stratified accretion, even though they formed independently.

The adsorption of biomolecules to multi-walled carbon nanotubes is influenced by both pulmonary surfactant lipids and surface chemistry

Background During production and processing of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), they may be inhaled and may enter the pulmonary circulation. It is essential that interactions with involved body fluids like the pulmonary surfactant, the blood and others are investigated, particularly as these interactions could lead to coating of the tubes and may affect their chemical and physical characteristics. The aim of this study was to characterize the possible coatings of different functionalized MWCNTs in a cell free environment. Results To simulate the first contact in the lung, the tubes were coated with pulmonary surfactant and subsequently bound lipids were characterized. The further coating in the blood circulation was simulated by incubating the tubes in blood plasma. MWCNTs were amino (NH2)- and carboxyl (-COOH)-modified, in order to investigate the influence on the bound lipid and protein patterns. It was shown that surfactant lipids bind unspecifically to different functionalized MWCNTs, in contrast to the blood plasma proteins which showed characteristic binding patterns. Patterns of bound surfactant lipids were altered after a subsequent incubation in blood plasma. In addition, it was found that bound plasma protein patterns were altered when MWCNTs were previously coated with pulmonary surfactant. Conclusions A pulmonary surfactant coating and the functionalization of MWCNTs have both the potential to alter the MWCNTs blood plasma protein coating and to determine their properties and behaviour in biological systems.

CH4, CO, and H2O spectroscopy for the Sentinel-5 Precursor mission: an assessment with the Total Carbon Column Observing Network measurements

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) will be part of ESA's Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite platform scheduled for launch in 2015. TROPOMI will monitor methane and carbon monoxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere by measuring spectra of back-scattered sunlight in the short-wave infrared (SWIR). S5P will be the first satellite mission to rely uniquely on the spectral window at 4190–4340 cm−1 (2.3 μm) to retrieve CH4 and CO. In this study, we investigated if the absorption features of the three relevant molecules CH4, CO, and H2O are adequately known. To this end, we retrieved total columns of CH4, CO, and H2O from absorption spectra measured by two ground-based Fourier transform spectrometers that are part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The retrieval results from the 4190–4340 cm−1 range at the TROPOMI resolution (0.45 cm−1) were then compared to the CH4 results obtained from the 6000 cm−1 region, and the CO results obtained from the 4190–4340 cm−1 region at the higher TCCON resolution (0.02 cm−1). For TROPOMI-like settings, we were able to reproduce the CH4 columns to an accuracy of 0.3% apart from a constant bias of 1%. The CO retrieval accuracy was, through interference, systematically influenced by the shortcomings of the CH4 and H2O spectroscopy. In contrast to CH4, the CO column error also varied significantly with atmospheric H2O content. Unaddressed, this would introduce seasonal and latitudinal biases to the CO columns retrieved from TROPOMI measurements. We therefore recommend further effort from the spectroscopic community to be directed at the H2O and CH4 spectroscopy in the 4190–4340 cm−1 region.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.