Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Decision-usefulness of ideal cost- and ideal value accounting for valuation and stewardship

This paper contrasts the decision-usefulness of prototype accounting regimes based on perfect accounting for value, i.e. ideal value accounting (IVA), and perfect matching of cost, i.e. ideal cost accounting (ICA). The regimes are analyzed in the context of a firm with overlapping capacity investments where projects earn excess returns and residual income is utilized as performance indicator. Provided that IVA and ICA systematically differ based on the criterion of unconditional conservatism, we assess their respective decision-usefulness for different valuation- and stewardship-scenarios. Assuming that addressees solely observe current accounting data of the firm, ICA provides information which is useful for valuation and stewardship without reservation whereas IVA entails problems under specific assumptions.

Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

Diagnosis and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the Swiss guidelines. Official guidelines of the Swiss Respiratory Society

The new Swiss Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Guidelines are based on a previous version, which was published 10 years ago. The Swiss Respiratory Society felt the need to update the previous document due to new knowledge and novel therapeutic developments about this prevalent and important disease. The recommendations and statements are based on the available literature, on other national guidelines and, in particular, on the GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) report. Our aim is to advise pulmonary physicians, general practitioners and other health care workers on the early detection and diagnosis, prevention, best symptomatic control, and avoidance of COPD as well as its complications and deterioration.

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

Clinical Use of Quantitative Computed Tomography–Based Finite Element Analysis of the Hip and Spine in the Management of Osteoporosis in Adults: the 2015 ISCD Official Positions—Part II

The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) has developed new official positions for the clinical use of quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-based finite element analysis of the spine and hip. The ISCD task force for QCT reviewed the evidence for clinical applications and presented a report with recommendations at the 2015 ISCD Position Development Conference. Here we discuss the agreed upon ISCD official positions with supporting medical evidence, rationale, controversy, and suggestions for further study. Parts I and III address the clinical use of QCT of the hip, and the clinical feasibility of existing techniques for opportunistic screening of osteoporosis using CT scans obtained for other diagnosis such as colonography was addressed.

Clinical Use of Quantitative Computed Tomography–Based Advanced Techniques in the Management of Osteoporosis in Adults: the 2015 ISCD Official Positions—Part III

The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) has developed new official positions for the clinical use of computed tomography (CT) scans acquired without a calibration phantom, for example, CT scans obtained for other diagnosis such as colonography. This also addresses techniques suggested for opportunistic screening of osteoporosis. The ISCD task force for quantitative CT reviewed the evidence for clinical applications of these new techniques and presented a report with recommendations at the 2015 ISCD Position Development Conference. Here we discuss the agreed upon ISCD official positions with supporting medical evidence, rationale, controversy, and suggestions for further study. Advanced techniques summarized as statistical parameter mapping methods were also reviewed. Their future use is promising but the clinical application is premature. The clinical use of QCT of the hip is addressed in part I and of finite element analysis of the hip and spine in part II.