Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Pressure-temperature estimates of the lizardite/antigorite transition in high pressure serpentinites

Serpentine minerals in natural samples are dominated by lizardite and antigorite. In spite of numerous laboratory experiments, the stability fields of these species remain poorly constrained. This paper presents petrological observations and the Raman spectroscopy and XRD analyses of natural serpentinites from the Alpine paleo-accretionary wedge. Serpentine varieties were identified from a range of metamorphic pressure and temperature conditions from sub-greenschist (P < 4 kbar, T ~ 200–300 °C) to eclogite facies conditions (P > 20 kbar, T > 460 °C) along a subduction geothermal gradient. We use the observed mineral assemblage in natural serpentinite along with the Tmax estimated by Raman spectroscopy of the carbonaceous matter in associated metasediments to constrain the temperature of the lizardite to antigorite transition at high pressures. We show that below 300 °C, lizardite and locally chrysotile are the dominant species in the mesh texture. Between 320 and 390 °C, lizardite is progressively replaced by antigorite at the grain boundaries through dissolution–precipitation processes in the presence of SiO2 enriched fluids and in the cores of the lizardite mesh. Above 390 °C, under high-grade blueschist to eclogite facies conditions, antigorite is the sole stable serpentine mineral until the onset of secondary olivine crystallization at 460 °C.

Global Estimates of the Prevalence and Incidence of Four Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2012 Based on Systematic Review and Global Reporting.

BACKGROUND Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. METHODS AND FINDINGS WHO's 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15-49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7-4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6-1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0-6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4-0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0-3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4-0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4-0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3-0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100-166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53-110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98-202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4-8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment are made more widely available. Improved estimation methods are needed to allow use of more varied data and generation of estimates at the national level.

Is there a recognition memory deficit in Parkinson's disease? Evidence from estimates of recollection and familiarity

There is conflicting evidence whether Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with impaired recognition memory and which of its underlying processes, namely recollection and familiarity, is more affected by the disease. The present study explored the contribution of recollection and familiarity to verbal recognition memory performance in 14 nondemented PD patients and a healthy control group with two different methods: (i) the word-frequency mirror effect, and (ii) Remember/Know judgments. Overall, recognition memory of patients was intact. The word-frequency mirror effect was observed both in patients and controls: Hit rates were higher and false alarm rates were lower for low-frequency compared to high-frequency words. However, Remember/Know judgments indicated normal recollection, but impaired familiarity. Our findings suggest that mild to moderate PD patients are selectively impaired at familiarity whereas recollection and overall recognition memory are intact.

Toward optimal display of physiologic status in critical care: I. Recreating bedside displays from archived physiologic data

BACKGROUND: Physiologic data display is essential to decision making in critical care. Current displays echo first-generation hemodynamic monitors dating to the 1970s and have not kept pace with new insights into physiology or the needs of clinicians who must make progressively more complex decisions about their patients. The effectiveness of any redesign must be tested before deployment. Tools that compare current displays with novel presentations of processed physiologic data are required. Regenerating conventional physiologic displays from archived physiologic data is an essential first step. OBJECTIVES: The purposes of the study were to (1) describe the SSSI (single sensor single indicator) paradigm that is currently used for physiologic signal displays, (2) identify and discuss possible extensions and enhancements of the SSSI paradigm, and (3) develop a general approach and a software prototype to construct such "extended SSSI displays" from raw data. RESULTS: We present Multi Wave Animator (MWA) framework-a set of open source MATLAB (MathWorks, Inc., Natick, MA, USA) scripts aimed to create dynamic visualizations (eg, video files in AVI format) of patient vital signs recorded from bedside (intensive care unit or operating room) monitors. Multi Wave Animator creates animations in which vital signs are displayed to mimic their appearance on current bedside monitors. The source code of MWA is freely available online together with a detailed tutorial and sample data sets.

Towards More Robust Estimates of the Transmissibility of Chlamydia trachomatis

There is a lack of a common concept on how to estimate transmissibility of Chlamydia trachomatis from cross-sectional sexual partnership studies. Using a mathematical model that takes into account the dynamics of chlamydia transmission and sexual partnership formation, we report refined estimates of chlamydia transmissibility in heterosexual partnerships.

What is the optimal number of implants for fixed reconstructions: a systematic review

To assess the 5-year and 10-year survival and complication rates of implant-supported fixed reconstructions in partially and totally edentulous patients with regard to the optimal number and distribution of dental implants.

What is the optimal number of implants for removable reconstructions? A systematic review on implant-supported overdentures

The aim of this systematic review was to assess the optimal number of implants for removable reconstructions.