Spring temperature variability and eutrophication history inferred from sedimentary pigments in the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland, AD 1907–2008

Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N–22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380–730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907–2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011–2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Revealing regional deforestation dynamics in north-eastern Madagascar - Insights from multi-temporal land cover change analysis

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar harbours the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by a small-scale agricultural mosaic. There is high deforestation, commonly thought to be caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice. However, little is known about the dynamics between forest and shifting cultivation systems at a regional level. Our study presents a first attempt to quantify changes in the extent of forest and different agricultural land cover classes, and to identify the main dynamics of land cover change for two intervals, 1995–2005 and 2005–2011. Over the 16-year study period, the speed of forest loss increased, the total area of upland rice production remained almost stable, and the area of irrigated rice fields slightly increased. While our findings seem to confirm a general trend of land use intensification, deforestation through shifting cultivation is still on the rise. Deforestation mostly affects the small forest fragments interspersed in the agricultural mosaic and is slowly leading to a homogenization of the landscape. These findings have important implications for future interventions to slow forest loss in the region, as the processes of agricultural expansion through shifting cultivation versus intensified land use cannot per se be considered mutually exclusive.

Beyond deforestation monitoring in conservation hotspots: Analysing landscape mosaic dynamics in north-eastern Madagascar

Due to its extraordinary biodiversity and rapid deforestation, north-eastern Madagascar is a conservation hotspot of global importance. Reducing shifting cultivation is a high priority for policy-makers and conservationists; however, spatially explicit evidence of shifting cultivation is lacking due to the difficulty of mapping it with common remote sensing methods. To overcome this challenge, we adopted a landscape mosaic approach to assess the changes between natural forests, shifting cultivation and permanent cultivation systems at the regional level from 1995 to 2011. Our study confirmed that shifting cultivation is still being used to produce subsistence rice throughout the region, but there is a trend of intensification away from shifting cultivation towards permanent rice production, especially near protected areas. While large continuous forest exists today only in the core zones of protected areas, the agricultural matrix is still dominated by a dense cover of tree crops and smaller forest fragments. We believe that this evidence makes a crucial contribution to the development of interventions to prevent further conversion of forest to agricultural land while improving local land users' well-being.

Vegetation and fire history of coastal north-eastern Sardinia (Italy) under changing Holocene climates and land use

Little is known about the vegetation and fire history of Sardinia, and especially the long-term history of the thermo-Mediterranean belt that encompasses its entire coastal lowlands. A new sedimentary record from a coastal lake based on pollen, spores, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal analysis is used to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history in north-eastern Sardinia. During the mid-Holocene (c. 8,100–5,300 cal bp), the vegetation around Stagno di Sa Curcurica was characterised by dense Erica scoparia and E. arborea stands, which were favoured by high fire activity. Fire incidence declined and evergreen broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex expanded at the beginning of the late Holocene. We relate the observed vegetation and fire dynamics to climatic change, specifically moister and cooler summers and drier and milder winters after 5,300 cal bp. Agricultural activities occurred since the Neolithic and intensified after c. 7,000 cal bp. Around 2,750 cal bp, a further decline of fire incidence and Erica communities occurred, while Quercus ilex expanded and open-land communities became more abundant. This vegetation shift coincided with the historically documented beginning of Phoenician period, which was followed by Punic and Roman civilizations in Sardinia. The vegetational change at around 2,750 cal bp was possibly advantaged by a further shift to moister and cooler summers and drier and milder winters. Triggers for climate changes at 5,300 and 2,750 cal bp may have been gradual, orbitally-induced changes in summer and winter insolation, as well as centennial-scale atmospheric reorganizations. Open evergreen broadleaved forests persisted until the twentieth century, when they were partly substituted by widespread artificial pine plantations. Our results imply that highly flammable Erica vegetation, as reconstructed for the mid-Holocene, could re-emerge as a dominant vegetation type due to increasing drought and fire, as anticipated under global change conditions.

The Anomalous Merging of the African and North Atlantic Jet Streams during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2010

The North Atlantic jet stream during winter 2010 was unusually zonal, so the typically separated Atlantic and African jets were merged into one zonal jet. Moreover, the latitude–height structure and temporal variability of the North Atlantic jet during this winter were more characteristic of the North Pacific. This work examines the possibility of a flow regime change from an eddy-driven to a mixed eddy–thermally driven jet. A monthly jet zonality index is defined, which shows that a persistent merged jet state has occurred in the past, both at the end of the 1960s and during a few sporadic months. The anomalously zonal jet is found to be associated with anomalous tropical Pacific diabatic heating and eddy anomalies similar to those found during a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. A Lagrangian back-trajectory diagnosis of eight winters suggests the tropical Pacific is a source of momentum to the Atlantic and African jets and that this source was stronger during the winter of 2010. The results suggest that the combination of weak eddy variance and fluxes in the North Atlantic, along with strong tropical heating, act to push the jet toward a merged eddy–thermally driven state. The authors also find significant SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, which reinforce the anomalous zonal winds, particularly in the eastern Atlantic.

A novel approach for assessing shifting cultivation dynamics in a regional conservation hotspot - insights from nort-eastern Madagascar

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar has been deemed a global hotspot of biodiversity due to its high levels of endemic speciesbeing heavily threatened by accelerated deforestation rates and landscape changes. The main concern for conservation of the remaining humid primary forests is the shifting cultivation practices of local smallholder farmers for rice production. According to the mainstream narrative, human population growth leads to a shortening of crop-fallow cycles and thus to the accelerated conversion of forests to agricultural land. However, little is currently known about the dynamic changes between forest and shifting cultivation systems at the regional level. Existing land cover change analyses in this area have so far only focused on binary forest to non-forest changes and have therefore failed to account for the dynamic nature of the change processes between forest and different agriculture land use systems. This can be partly explained by the significant challenge to delineate shifting cultivation systems on land cover maps using traditional remote sensing classification approaches. To address this gap we therefore applied a novel GIS approach, that was originally developed for the assessment of shifting cultivation dynamics in Laos and has so far never been applied elsewhere, to map shifting cultivation of different crop-fallow lengths as well as permanent agriculture land use at the regional level. Change analyses of land use maps between 1995 and 2011 allowed us to comprehend the general trends of land use trajectories and their spatial variation. This more detailed understanding of land use change dynamics is key to plan for successful interventions to slow forest loss while at the same time improving local livelihoods. We further believe that this approach holds great potential for conservation monitoring in this resource-rich but povertyprone conservation hotspot.