Direct north-south synchroniszation of abrupt climate change record in ice cores using Beryllium 10

A new, decadally resolved record of the 10Be peak at 41 kyr from the EPICA Dome C ice core (Antarctica) is used to match it with the same peak in the GRIP ice core (Greenland). This permits a direct synchronisation of the climatic variations around this time period, independent of uncertainties related to the ice age-gas age difference in ice cores. Dansgaard-Oeschger event 10 is in the period of best synchronisation and is found to be coeval with an Antarctic temperature maximum. Simulations using a thermal bipolar seesaw model agree reasonably well with the observed relative climate chronology in these two cores. They also reproduce three Antarctic warming events observed between A1 and A2.

Fire ecology north and south of the Alps since the last ice age

Wildfires are very rare in central Europe, which is probably why fire effects on vegetation have been neglected by most central European ecologists and palaeoecologists. Presently, reconstructions of fire history and fire ecology are almost absent. We analysed sediment cores from lakes on the Swiss Plateau (Lobsigensee and Soppensee) for pollen and charcoal to investigate the relationship between vegetation and fire. Microscopic charcoal evidence suggests increasing regional fire frequencies during the Neolithic (7350-4150 cal. BP, 5400-2200 BC) and the subsequent prehistoric epochs at Lobsigensee, whereas at Soppensee burnings remained rather rare until modern times. Neolithic peaks of charcoal at 6200 and 5500 cal. BP (4250 and 3550 BC) coincided with declines of pollen of fire-sensitive taxa at both sites (e.g., Ulmus, Tilia, Hedera, Fagus), suggesting synchronous vegetational responses to fire at regional scales. However, correlation analysis between charcoal and pollen for the period 6600-4400 cal. BP (4650-2650 BC) revealed no significant link between fire and vegetation at Soppensee, whereas at Lobsigensee increases of Corylus and decreases of Fagus were related to fire events. Fire impact on vegetation increased during the subsequent epochs at both sites. Correlation analyses of charcoal and pollen data for the period 4250-1150 cal. BP (2300 BC -AD 800) suggest that fires were intentionally set to disrupt forests and to provide open areas for arable and pastoral farming (e.g., significant positive correlations between charcoal and Cerealia, Plantago lanceolata, Asteroideae). These results are compared with southern European records (Lago di Origlio, Lago di Muzzano), which are situated in particularly fire-prone environments. After the Mesolithic period (I1 200-7350 cal. BP, 9250-5400 BC), charcoal influx was higher by an order of magnitude in the south, suggesting more frequent fires. Neolithic fires caused similar though more pronounced responses of vegetation in the south (e.g., expansions of Corylus). Post-Neolithic land-use practices involving (controlled) burning culminated in both regions at about 2550 cal. BP (c. 600 BC). However, fire-caused disappearances of entire forest communities were confined to the southern sites. Such differences in fire effects among the sites are explained by the dissimilar importance of fire as a result of different climatic conditions and cultural activities. Our results imply that the remaining (fire-sensitive) fragments of central European vegetation north of the Alps are especially endangered by increasing fire frequencies resulting from predicted climatic change.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

Policy Change in Comparative Contexts: Applying the Advocacy Coalition Framework Outside of Western Europe and North America

The advocacy coalition framework (ACF) is one of the most frequently applied theories of the policy process. Most applications have been in Western Europe and North America. This article provides an overview of the ACF, summarizes existing applications outside of Western Europe and North America, and introduces the special issue that features applications of the ACF in the Philippines, China, India, and Kenya. This article concludes with an argument for the continued application of the ACF outside of Western Europe and North America and a research agenda for overcoming challenges in using the ACF in comparative public policy research.

Evidence for cooler European summers during periods of changing meltwater flux to the North Atlantic

We analyzed fossil chironomids (nonbiting midges) and pollen in two lake-sediment records to reconstruct and quantify Holocene summer-temperature fluctuations in the European Alps. Chironomid and pollen records indicate five centennial-scale cooling episodes during the early- and mid-Holocene. The strongest temperature declines of ≈1°C are inferred at ≈10,700–10,500 and 8,200–7,600 calibrated 14C years B.P., whereas other temperature fluctuations are of smaller amplitude. Two forcing mechanisms have been presented recently to explain centennial-scale climate variability in Europe during the early- and mid-Holocene, both involving changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In the first mechanism, changes in meltwater flux from the North American continent to the North Atlantic are responsible for changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, thereby affecting circum-Atlantic climate. In the second mechanism, solar variability is the cause of Holocene climatic fluctuations, possibly triggering changes in Atlantic thermohaline overturning. Within their dating uncertainty, the two major cooling periods in the European Alps are coeval with substantial changes in the routing of North American freshwater runoff to the North Atlantic, whereas quantitatively, our climatic reconstructions show a poor agreement with available records of past solar activity. Thus, our results suggest that, during the early- and mid-Holocene, freshwater-induced Atlantic circulation changes had stronger influence on Alpine summer temperatures than solar variability and that Holocene thermohaline circulation reductions have led to summer-temperature declines of up to 1°C in central Europe.

Molecular subtype analysis determines the association of advanced breast cancer in Egypt with favorable biology

Background Prognostic markers and molecular breast cancer subtypes reflect underlying biological tumor behavior and are important for patient management. Compared to Western countries, women in North Africa are less likely to be prognosticated and treated based on well-characterized markers such as the estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and Her2. We conducted this study to determine the prevalence of breast cancer molecular subtypes in the North African country of Egypt as a measure of underlying biological characteristics driving tumor manifestations. Methods To determine molecular subtypes we characterized over 200 tumor specimens obtained from Egypt by performing ER, PR, Her2, CK5/6, EGFR and Ki67 immunohistochemistry. Results Our study demonstrated that the Luminal A subtype, associated with favorable prognosis, was found in nearly 45% of cases examined. However, the basal-like subtype, associated with poor prognosis, was found in 11% of cases. These findings are in sharp contrast to other parts of Africa in which the basal-like subtype is over-represented. Conclusions Egyptians appear to have favorable underlying biology, albeit having advanced disease at diagnosis. These data suggest that Egyptians would largely profit from early detection of their disease. Intervention at the public health level, including education on the benefits of early detection is necessary and would likely have tremendous impact on breast cancer outcome in Egypt.

Calibration of River Gauge at Afdeyu Research Station, Eritrea: A study conducted by MOA NARI and SLM

Afdeyu Station is one of the few river gauging stations in the highlands of Eritrea where daily measurements are taken. As a result of damages, the station was refurbished, and the cross section of the gauge was changed to have better control of minimal runoff. The gauge therefore had to be re-calibrated. This publication documents this process and also provides the new calibration curve, based on extensive field work carried out in the rainy season 2009

Challenges for Participatory Conservation in Times of Global Change: Lessons from a Comparative Analysis and New Developments

Participatory approaches to conservation have been applied worldwide by governments and non-governmental organisations. However, results from a comparative analysis of the impacts of global change on management issues in 13 protected areas in Africa, Latin America, Asia, and Europe show that in many cases the involvement of local people has remained limited, and economic gains for local livelihoods have been limited or non-existent. Viewed from a ‘new institutionalist’ perspective and focusing on power relations and ideologies, the results of this study carried out within the framework of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) North-South show that in African cases local people do not feel part of the process and, therefore, become disengaged. In Asia, and even more so in Latin America, local indigenous peoples and their leaders support protected areas as a means to gain political rights over areas threatened by immigration. The European (Swiss) case is the only one where political rights and economic incentives present a context in which participation is of direct interest to local people. Meanwhile, recent debates on new global conservation developments in the context of climate change policy indicate a growing tendency to treat conservation as a commodity. We argue that this can have problematical effects on efforts to devolve power to the local level in the context of conservation.

Huntington's like conditions in China, A review of published Chinese cases

Background: Knowledge about HD in China is lacking in the international literature. We have therefore analyzed the Chinese literature to thoroughly explore the clinical characteristics of Huntington disease in China. Methods: A computer-based online search of China National Knowledge Infrastructure was performed to review case reports concerning HD published between January 1980 and April of 2011, and the clinical characteristics were extracted. Results: A total of 92 studies involving 279 patients (157 males and 122 females) were collected, 82.0% of which were from provinces of North China. Most of the cases (97.8%) had a family history of HD, and paternal inheritance (65.5%) was higher than maternal inheritance (34.5%). Onset age was 35.8 (± 11.8) years, death occurred with 45.6 (± 13.5) years after a course of 11.6 (± 5.6) years. Involuntary movements were the most frequent reported presentation (found in 52.3%, including 64.4% in the entire body, 19.8% in the upper limbs, and 13.7% in the head and face). Psychiatric symptoms at onset were reported in 16.1%, and cognitive impairment in 1.8%. With disease progression, 99.6% of patients had abnormal movements, 67.9% cognitive impairment, and 35.0% suffered psychiatric symptoms. Of the reported patients, only 22 underwent IT15 gene testing with positive results. Conclusion: HD is a well-reported entity in Chinese medical literature, however, only a small number of instances have been proven by molecular diagnosis. Most of the features resemble what is known in other countries. The highly predominant motor presentation, and the higher male prevalence as well as the apparent concentration in Northern China may be due to observational bias. There is therefore a need to prospectively examine cohorts of patients with appropriate comprehensive assessment tools including genetic testing.