A review of dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood risk analysis in Spain

Over the last forty years, applying dendrogeomorphology to palaeoflood analysis has improved estimates of the frequency and magnitude of past floods worldwide. This paper reviews the main results obtained by applying dendrogeomorphology to flood research in several case studies in Central Spain. These dendrogeomorphological studies focused on the following topics: (1) anatomical analysis to understand the physiological response of trees to flood damage and improve sampling efficiency; (2) compiling robust flood chronologies in ungauged mountain streams, (3) determining flow depth and estimating flood discharge using two-dimensional hydraulic modelling, and comparing them with other palaeostage indicators; (4) calibrating hydraulic model parameters (i.e. Manning roughness); and (5) implementing stochastic-based, cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. The progress made in these areas is presented with suggestions for further research to improve the applicability of dendrogeochronology to palaeoflood studies. Further developments will include new methods for better identification of the causes of specific types of flood damage to trees (e.g. tilted trees) or stable isotope analysis of tree rings to identify the climatic conditions associated with periods of increasing flood magnitude or frequency.

Bevezető: utak és úton lévők

A kvalitatív módszerekkel nyert kutatási eredményeink értelmezése során a transznacionális tér, a transznacionális és az etnikai migráció elméleti és szemléleti kereteit egyaránt figyelembe vettük. Az általunk vizsgált migrációs folyamatok transznacionális térben zajlanak, és a transznacionális irodalomban leírt migráns élethelyzetek, gyakorlatok – különböző nemzetállamokban elhelyezkedő lokalitásokhoz való egyidejű, bár eltérő intenzitású kötődés, kapcsolatok – több példájával is találkoztunk. Ludger Pries nyomán a transznacionális migrációt és a transznacionális migráns alakját olyan ideáltípusnak tekintettük, amelyhez az egyes migráns utak és helyzetek csupán közelítenek, és empirikus eredményeink alapján azt mondhatjuk, hogy a valóban plurilokális, vagyis a két helyhez való egyidejű, intenzív és tartós kötődés s az ehhez kapcsolódó gyakorlatok csupán a migránsok kisebbségét, illetve a migrációs életpályák egy-egy szakaszát jellemzik. A vizsgált migrációs folyamatokban az etnicitás strukturális tényezőként és a migráns tapasztalatok értelmezési kereteként egyaránt perdöntő szerepet játszik. Az etnikai migráció szakirodalomban tárgyalt mindhárom magyarázó modellje – az anyaországba való hazatérés, a gazdasági okokból való, illetve a kisebbségi létben elszenvedett sérelmek által ösztönzött migráció – alkalmas a migrációt kiváltó és mozgató okok elemzésére, a migráns narratívák értelmezésére, azt azonban nem állíthatjuk, hogy bármelyikük kizárólagos érvényre tehet szert. Más kutatókhoz hasonlóan Rogers Brubaker meghatározását tartjuk a leginkább gyümölcsözőnek, aki az etnikai migráció tág értelmezését használva minden olyan vándorlási folyamatot etnikai migrációnak tekint, amelyben az etnicitás kulturális és szimbolikus tőkeként szabályozó szerepet játszik. This special issue of Tér és Társadalom presents some results of an international research project carried out by researchers from Switzerland, Hungary and Serbia between 2010 and 2012. The topic of the research was “Integrating (Trans-)national Migrants in Transition States” (TRANSMIG) and was financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). The research aimed to explore and interpret migration flows from the Vojvodina (Serbia) to Hungary and from ex-Yugoslav republics to the Vojvodina. In the first period of the last twenty years, wars which contributed to the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the formation of new national states have caused migration flows. After the change of the millennium, educational migration of Vojvodina Hungarian youth can be considered the most important migratory movement from the Vojvodina to Hungary. Labour (economic) migration also occurs, but this cannot be understood as a one-way movement, since in the Hungarian–Serbian border zone migrants from the Vojvodina who already resettled to Hungary commute to the Vojvodina. While interpreting the qualitative research data the theoretical frameworks and approaches of transnational space, transnationalism and ethnic migration were taken into consideration. The migration movement in question occurs in a transnational social space where migrants are in constant motion. By their movements and actions that space is continually recreated. With Ludger Pries we see a transnational migrant as an ideal type to whom individual migratory movements and positions only approximate. Based on our empirical results we can conclude that real pluri-local, intensive and long-lasting bonding to two places at the same time and the relating practices only characterise a minority of migrants and certain sections of migratory careers. In the migration processes studied, ethnicity as a term is needed as a “structural factor” and frame of interpretation to approach migrant experiences. All three explanatory models for ethnic migration – return migration, economic migration, migration motivated by grievances suffered in a minority situation – are suitable to analyse the reasons that initiated migration and kept it in motion. They are helpful in interpreting migrant narratives. However, none of the reasons can claim exclusive validity. Agreeing with other researchers, we find Roger Brubaker’s definition the most useful: Ethnic migration should be comprehended in a broad sense. In addition, every migration can be considered as “ethnically” motivated where ethnicity plays a dominant role as a cultural and symbolic capital.

Making research relevant to policy-makers, development actors, and local communities: NCCR North-South report on effectiveness of research for development

Bridging the gap between research and policy is of growing importance in international development. The National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) North-South has rich experience in collaborating beyond academic boundaries to make their research relevant to various societal actors. This publication is the first to provide an overview of the effectiveness of NCCR North-South researchers’ efforts to interact with policy, practice, and local communities with a view to effecting a change in practices. A systematic assessment of researchers’ interactions with non-academic partners is presented, based on principles of monitoring and evaluation. On this basis, tools for collective learning and widespread adaptation are proposed. The report shows with what types of societal actors NCCR North-South researchers collaborate and analyses examples of how researchers conduct dialogue beyond academic boundaries, leading to specific outcomes. It also explains the frame conditions considered decisive for successful and sustainable policy dialogue and concludes with recommendations about how the NCCR North-South can increase the effectiveness of its research for development. The publication is a valuable source of inspiration for those interested in better understanding how to generate the multiple benefits of making science relevant to society.

Making Research Relevant to Development - Experience from the NCCR North-South

Making research relevant to development is a complex, non-linear and often unpredictable process which requires very particular skills and strategies on the part of researchers. The National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) North-South provides financial and technical support for researchers so that they can effectively cooperate with policy-makers and practitioners. An analysis of 10 years of experience translating research into development practise in the NCCR North-South revealed the following four strategies as particularly relevant: a) research orientation towards the needs and interests of partners; b) implementation of promising methods and approaches; c) communication and dissemination of research results; and d) careful analysis of the political context through monitoring and learning approaches. The NCCR North-South experience shows that “doing excellent research” is just one piece of the mosaic. It is equally important to join hands with non-academic partners from the very beginning of a research project, in order to develop and test new pathways for sustainable development. Capacity building – in the North and South – enables researchers to do both: To do excellent research and to make it relevant for development.

Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.