Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Tracing of 15N in a mountain spruce forest: comparison of experimental data with th TRACE model

Despite numerous studies about nitrogen-cycling in forest ecosystems, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the longer-term nitrogen accumulation. To contribute to filling this gap, the dynamic process-based model TRACE, with the ability to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in forest ecosystems was used to study N cycling processes in a mountain spruce forest of the northern edge of the Alps in Switzerland (Alptal, SZ). Most modeling analyses of N-cycling and C-N interactions have very limited ability to determine whether the process interactions are captured correctly. Because the interactions in such a system are complex, it is possible to get the whole-system C and N cycling right in a model without really knowing if the way the model combines fine-scale interactions to derive whole-system cycling is correct. With the possibility to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in ecosystem compartments, TRACE features a very powerful tool for the validation of fine-scale processes captured by the model. We first adapted the model to the new site (Alptal, Switzerland; long-term low-dose N-amendment experiment) by including a new algorithm for preferential water flow and by parameterizing of differences in drivers such as climate, N deposition and initial site conditions. After the calibration of key rates such as NPP and SOM turnover, we simulated patterns of 15N redistribution to compare against 15N field observations from a large-scale labeling experiment. The comparison of 15N field data with the modeled redistribution of the tracer in the soil horizons and vegetation compartments shows that the majority of fine-scale processes are captured satisfactorily. Particularly, the model is able to reproduce the fact that the largest part of the N deposition is immobilized in the soil. The discrepancies of 15N recovery in the LF and M soil horizon can be explained by the application method of the tracer and by the retention of the applied tracer by the well developed moss layer, which is not considered in the model. Discrepancies in the dynamics of foliage and litterfall 15N recovery were also observed and are related to the longevity of the needles in our mountain forest. As a next step, we will use the final Alptal version of the model to calculate the effects of climate change (temperature, CO2) and N deposition on ecosystem C sequestration in this regionally representative Norway spruce (Picea abies) stand.

Species Richness-Environment Relationships of European Arthropods at Two Spatial Grains: Habitats and Countries

We study how species richness of arthropods relates to theories concerning net primary productivity, ambient energy, water-energy dynamics and spatial environmental heterogeneity. We use two datasets of arthropod richness with similar spatial extents (Scandinavia to Mediterranean), but contrasting spatial grain (local habitat and country). Samples of ground-dwelling spiders, beetles, bugs and ants were collected from 32 paired habitats at 16 locations across Europe. Species richness of these taxonomic groups was also determined for 25 European countries based on the Fauna Europaea database. We tested effects of net primary productivity (NPP), annual mean temperature (T), annual rainfall (R) and potential evapotranspiration of the coldest month (PETmin) on species richness and turnover. Spatial environmental heterogeneity within countries was considered by including the ranges of NPP, T, R and PETmin. At the local habitat grain, relationships between species richness and environmental variables differed strongly between taxa and trophic groups. However, species turnover across locations was strongly correlated with differences in T. At the country grain, species richness was significantly correlated with environmental variables from all four theories. In particular, species richness within countries increased strongly with spatial heterogeneity in T. The importance of spatial heterogeneity in T for both species turnover across locations and for species richness within countries suggests that the temperature niche is an important determinant of arthropod diversity. We suggest that, unless climatic heterogeneity is constant across sampling units, coarse-grained studies should always account for environmental heterogeneity as a predictor of arthropod species richness, just as studies with variable area of sampling units routinely consider area.

Site- and species-specific responses of forest growth to climate across the European continent

Aim To evaluate the climate sensitivity of model-based forest productivity estimates using a continental-scale tree-ring network. Location Europe and North Africa (30–70° N, 10° W–40° E). Methods We compiled close to 1000 annually resolved records of radial tree growth for all major European tree species and quantified changes in growth as a function of historical climatic variation. Sites were grouped using a neural network clustering technique to isolate spatiotemporal and species-specific climate response patterns. The resulting empirical climate sensitivities were compared with the sensitivities of net primary production (NPP) estimates derived from the ORCHIDEE-FM and LPJ-wsl dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Results We found coherent biogeographic patterns in climate response that depend upon (1) phylogenetic controls and (2) ambient environmental conditions delineated by latitudinal/elevational location. Temperature controls dominate forest productivity in high-elevation and high-latitude areas whereas moisture sensitive sites are widespread at low elevation in central and southern Europe. DGVM simulations broadly reproduce the empirical patterns, but show less temperature sensitivity in the boreal zone and stronger precipitation sensitivity towards the mid-latitudes. Main conclusions Large-scale forest productivity is driven by monthly to seasonal climate controls, but our results emphasize species-specific growth patterns under comparable environmental conditions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that carry-over effects from the previous growing season can significantly influence tree growth, particularly in areas with harsh climatic conditions – an element not considered in most current-state DGVMs. Model–data discrepancies suggest that the simulated climate sensitivity of NPP will need refinement before carbon-cycle climate feedbacks can be accurately quantified.

Radiocarbon impact in a nearby tree of a light-water VVER type nuclear power plant, Paks, Hungary

Tree-ring series were collected for radiocarbon analyses from the vicinity of Paks nuclear power plant (NPP) and a background area (Dunaföldvár) for a 10-yr period (2000–2009). Samples of holocellulose were prepared from the wood and converted to graphite for accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C measurement using the MICADAS at ETH Zürich. The 14C concentration data from these tree rings was compared to the background tree rings for each year. The global decreasing trend of atmospheric 14C activity concentration was observed in the annual tree rings both in the background area and in the area of the NPP. As an average of the past 10 yr, the excess 14C emitted by the pressurized-water reactor (PWR) NPP to the atmosphere shows only a slight systematic excess (~6‰) 14C in the annual rings. The highest 14C excess was 13‰ (in 2006); however, years with the same 14C level as the background were quite frequent in the tree-ring series.

Comparative Behavioral and Neural Effects of Tryptophan and Catecholamine Depletion in Remitted Depression

Background: Despite immense efforts into development of new antidepressant drugs, the increases of serotoninergic and catechominergic neurotransmission have remained the two major pharmacodynamic principles of current drug treatments for depression. Consequently, psychopathological or biological markers that predict response to drugs that selectively increase serotonin and/or catecholamine neurotransmission hold the potential to optimize the prescriber’s selection among currently available treatment options. The aim of this study was to elucidate the differential symptomatology and neurophysiology in response to reductions in serotonergic versus catecholaminergic neurotransmission in subjects at high risk of depression recurrence. Methods: Using identical neuroimaging procedures with [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography after tryptophan depletion (TD) and catecholamine depletion (CD), subjects with remitted depression were compared to healthy controls in a double-blind, randomized, crossover design. Results: While TD induced significantly more depressed mood, sadness and hopelessness than CD, CD induced more inactivity, concentration difficulties, lassitude and somatic anxiety than TD. CD specifically increased glucose metabolism in the bilateral ventral striatum and decreased glucose metabolism in the bilateral orbitofrontal cortex, whereas TD specifically increased metabolism in the right prefrontal cortex and the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). While we found direct associations between changes in brain metabolism and induced depressive symptoms following CD, the relationship between neural activity and symptoms was less clear after TD. Conclusions: In conclusion, this study showed that serotonin and catecholamines play common and differential roles in the pathophysiology of depression.

Prefrontal Thinning Affects Functional Connectivity and Regional Homogeneity of the Anterior Cingulate Cortex in Depression

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with structural and functional alterations in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Enhanced ACC activity at rest (measured using various imaging methodologies) is found in treatment-responsive patients and is hypothesized to bolster treatment response by fostering adaptive rumination. However, whether structural changes influence functional coupling between fronto-cingulate regions and ACC regional homogeneity (ReHo) and whether these functional changes are related to levels of adaptive rumination and treatment response is still unclear. Cortical thickness and ReHo maps were calculated in 21 unmedicated depressed patients and 35 healthy controls. Regions with reduced cortical thickness defined the seeds for the subsequent functional connectivity (FC) analyses. Patients completed the Response Style Questionnaire, which provided a measure of adaptive rumination associated with better response to psychotherapy. Compared with controls, depressed patients showed thinning of the right anterior PFC, increased prefrontal connectivity with the supragenual ACC (suACC), and higher ReHo in the suACC. The suACC clusters of increased ReHo and FC spatially overlapped. In depressed patients, suACC ReHo scores positively correlated with PFC thickness and with FC strength. Moreover, stronger fronto-cingulate connectivity was related to higher levels of adaptive rumination. Greater suACC ReHo and connectivity with the right anterior PFC seem to foster adaptive forms of self-referential processing associated with better response to psychotherapy, whereas prefrontal thinning impairs the ability of depressed patients to engage the suACC during a major depressive episode. Bolstering the function of the suACC may represent a potential target for treatment.