Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

OBJECTIVE The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. METHODS The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). RESULTS A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p <0.001). An increase in suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; p<0.001). Most suicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. CONCLUSIONS Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

Chlamydia infection, pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy and infertility: cross-national study

Objectives To describe, using routine data in selected countries, chlamydia control activities and rates of chlamydia infection, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy and infertility and to compare trends in chlamydia positivity with rates of PID and ectopic pregnancy. Methods Cross-national comparison including national data from Australia, Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and Switzerland. Routine data sources about chlamydia diagnosis and testing and International Classification of Disease-10 coded diagnoses of PID, ectopic pregnancy and infertility in women aged 15–39 years from 1999 to 2008 were described. Trends over time and relevant associations were examined using Poisson regression. Results Opportunistic chlamydia testing was recommended in all countries except Switzerland, but target groups differed. Rates of chlamydia testing were highest in New Zealand. Chlamydia positivity was similar in all countries with available data (Denmark, New Zealand and Sweden) and increased over time. Increasing chlamydia positivity rates were associated with decreasing PID rates in Denmark and Sweden and with decreasing ectopic pregnancy rates in Denmark, New Zealand and Sweden. Ectopic pregnancy rates appeared to increase over time in 15–19-year-olds in several countries. Trends in infertility diagnoses were very variable. Conclusions The intensity of recommendations about chlamydia control varied between countries but was not consistently related to levels of chlamydia diagnosis or testing. Relationships between levels of chlamydia infection and complication rates between or within countries over time were not straightforward. Development and validation of indicators of chlamydia-related morbidity that can be compared across countries and over time should be pursued.

Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

Pollinating insects form a key component of European biodiversity, and provide a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants. There is growing evidence of declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in plants relying upon them. The STEP project (Status and Trends of European Pollinators, 2010-2015, www.step-project.net) is documenting critical elements in the nature and extent of these declines, examining key functional traits associated with pollination deficits, and developing a Red List for some European pollinator groups. Together these activities are laying the groundwork for future pollinator monitoring programmes. STEP is also assessing the relative importance of potential drivers of pollinator declines, including climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, light pollution, and their interactions. We are measuring the ecological and economic impacts of declining pollinator services and floral resources, including effects on wild plant populations, crop production and human nutrition. STEP is reviewing existing and potential mitigation options, and providing novel tests of their effectiveness across Europe. Our work is building upon existing and newly developed datasets and models, complemented by spatially-replicated campaigns of field research to fill gaps in current knowledge. Findings are being integrated into a policy-relevant framework to create evidence-based decision support tools. STEP is establishing communication links to a wide range of stakeholders across Europe and beyond, including policy makers, beekeepers, farmers, academics and the general public. Taken together, the STEP research programme aims to improve our understanding of the nature, causes, consequences and potential mitigation of declines in pollination services at local, national, continental and global scales.

Cancer, a disease of aging (part 1) - trends in older adult cancer mortality in Switzerland 1991-2008

It is crucial for aging societies to evaluate trends in cancer mortality rates of older adults. This study examined socio-demographic and regional characteristics specifically focused on the cancer mortality experience of older adults in Switzerland.

Cellular telephone use and time trends in brain tumour mortality in Switzerland from 1969 to 2002

A rising concern exists that with the widespread use of mobile communication technologies, the incidence of brain tumours may increase. On the basis of data from the Swiss national mortality registry from 1969 to 2002, annual age-standardized brain tumour mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated using the European standard population. Time trend analyses were performed by the Poisson regression for six different age groups in men and women separately. The study period was divided into two intervals: before and after 1987, when the analogue mobile technology was introduced in Switzerland. Age-standardized brain tumour mortality rates ranged between 3.7 and 6.7 for men and 2.5 and 4.4 for women per 100,000 person-years. For the whole study period, a significant increase in brain tumour mortality was observed for men and women in the older age groups (60-74 and 75+ years) but not in the younger ones in whom mobile phone use was more prevalent. Time trend analyses restricted to data from 1987 onwards revealed relatively stable brain tumour mortality rates in all age groups. For instance, the annual change in brain tumour mortality rate for the 45-59-year age group was -0.3% (95% confidence interval: -1.7; 1.1) for men and -0.4% (95% confidence interval:-2.2; 1.3) for women. We conclude that after the introduction of mobile phone technology in Switzerland, brain tumour mortality rates remained stable in all age groups. Our results suggest that mobile phone use is not a strong risk factor in the short term for mortality from brain tumours. Ecological analyses like this, however, are limited in their ability to reveal potentially small increases in risk for diseases with a long latency period.

Opportunities and risks in reconciling conservation and development in a post-Soviet setting: The example of the Tajik National Park

In the Tajik National Park (TNP) - a high-altitude area of nearly 26,000 km2 in Central Asia - past and present human activities visibly contrast with standard conservation requirements for protected areas worldwide. This paper focuses on resource management, and highlights three major processes that threaten both the sustainable use of natural resources and the preservation of nature per se: (i) intensified use of biomass as a fuel resource, (ii) inappropriate pasture management, and (iii) increased pressure on endangered wildlife. From analysis of these processes - their historical background, root causes, trends and interrelationships - options and needs to improve park management are proposed and discussed.

An Assessment of Trends in the Extent of Swidden in Southeast Asia

Swidden systems consisting of temporarily cultivated land and associated fallows often do not appear on land use maps or in statistical records. This is partly due to the fact that swidden is a diverse and dynamic land use system that is difficult to map and partly because of the practice of grouping land covers associated with swidden systems into land use or land cover categories that are not self-evidently linked to swiddening. Additionally, in many parts of Southeast Asia swidden systems have changed or are in the process of changing into other land use systems. This paper assesses the extent of swidden on the basis of regional and national sources for nine countries, and determines the pattern of changes of swidden on the basis of 151 cases culled from 67 articles. Findings include (1) a majority of the cases document swidden being replaced by other forms of agriculture or by other livelihood systems; (2) in cases where swiddening is still practiced, fallow lengths are usually, but not always, shorter; and (3) shortened fallow length does not necessarily indicate a trend away from swidden since it is observed that short fallow swidden is sometimes maintained along with other more intensive farming practices and not completely abandoned. The paper concludes that there is a surprising lack of conclusive data on the extent of swidden in Southeast Asia. In order to remedy this, methods are reviewed that may lead to more precise future assessments.

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement in Europe: adoption trends and factors influencing device utilization

OBJECTIVES The authors sought to examine the adoption of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in Western Europe and investigate factors that may influence the heterogeneous use of this therapy. BACKGROUND Since its commercialization in 2007, the number of TAVR procedures has grown exponentially. METHODS The adoption of TAVR was investigated in 11 European countries: Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark, and Ireland. Data were collected from 2 sources: 1) lead physicians submitted nation-specific registry data; and 2) an implantation-based TAVR market tracker. Economic indexes such as healthcare expenditure per capita, sources of healthcare funding, and reimbursement strategies were correlated to TAVR use. Furthermore, we assessed the extent to which TAVR has penetrated its potential patient population. RESULTS Between 2007 and 2011, 34,317 patients underwent TAVR. Considerable variation in TAVR use existed across nations. In 2011, the number of TAVR implants per million individuals ranged from 6.1 in Portugal to 88.7 in Germany (33 ± 25). The annual number of TAVR implants performed per center across nations also varied widely (range 10 to 89). The weighted average TAVR penetration rate was low: 17.9%. Significant correlation was found between TAVR use and healthcare spending per capita (r = 0.80; p = 0.005). TAVR-specific reimbursement systems were associated with higher TAVR use than restricted systems (698 ± 232 vs. 213 ± 112 implants/million individuals ≥ 75 years; p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS The authors' findings indicate that TAVR is underutilized in high and prohibitive surgical risk patients with severe aortic stenosis. National economic indexes and reimbursement strategies are closely linked with TAVR use and help explain the inequitable adoption of this therapy.

Hospital trends of admissions and procedures for acute leg ischaemia in England, 2000-2011.

INTRODUCTION Acute leg ischaemia (ALI) is a common vascular emergency for which new minimally invasive treatment options were introduced in the 1990s. The aim of this study was to determine recent hospital trends for ALI in England and to assess whether the introduction of the new treatment modalities had affected management. METHODS Routine hospital data covering ALI were provided by Hospital Episode Statistics for the years 2000 to 2011 and mortality data were obtained from the Office for National Statistics. All data were age standardised, reported per 100,000 of the population, and stratified by age band (60-74 years and ≥75 years) and sex. RESULTS Hospital admissions have risen significantly from 60.3 to 94.3 per 100,000 of the population, with an average annual increase of 6.2% since 2003 (p<0.001). The rise was greater in the older age group (from 79.9 to 134.4 vs 49.3 to 73.0) and yet procedures for ALI have shown a significant decrease since 2000 from 14.3 to 12.4 per 100,000 (p=0.013), independent of age and sex. Open embolectomy of the femoral artery remains the most common procedure and the proportion of endovascular interventions showed only a small increase. Only a few deaths were attributed to ALI (range: 95-150 deaths per year). CONCLUSIONS Hospital workload for ALI has increased, particularly since 2003, but this trend does not appear to have translated into increased endovascular or surgical activity.

Trends in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

BACKGROUND Impact of contemporary treatment of pre-invasive breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]) on long-term outcomes remains poorly defined. We aimed to evaluate national treatment trends for DCIS and to determine their impact on disease-specific (DSS) and overall survival (OS). METHODS The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry was queried for patients diagnosed with DCIS from 1991 to 2010. Treatment pattern trends were analyzed using Cochran-Armitage trend test. Survival analyses were performed using inverse probability weights (IPW)-adjusted competing risk analyses for DSS and Cox proportional hazard regression for OS. All tests performed were two-sided. RESULTS One hundred twenty-one thousand and eighty DCIS patients were identified. The greatest proportion of patients was treated with lumpectomy and radiation therapy (43.0%), followed by lumpectomy alone (26.5%) and unilateral (23.8%) or bilateral mastectomy (4.5%) with significant shifts over time. The rate of sentinel lymph node biopsy increased from 9.7% to 67.1% for mastectomy and from 1.4% to 17.8% for lumpectomy. Compared with mastectomy, OS was higher for lumpectomy with radiation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76 to 0.83, P < .001) and lower for lumpectomy alone (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.23, P < .001). IPW-adjusted ten-year DSS was highest in lumpectomy with XRT (98.9%), followed by mastectomy (98.5%), and lumpectomy alone (98.4%). CONCLUSIONS We identified substantial shifts in treatment patterns for DCIS from 1991 to 2010. When outcomes between locoregional treatment options were compared, we observed greater differences in OS than DSS, likely reflecting both a prevailing patient selection bias as well as clinically negligible differences in breast cancer outcomes between groups.