Multivariate modelling of responses to conditional items: New possibilities for latent class analysis

Questionnaire data may contain missing values because certain questions do not apply to all respondents. For instance, questions addressing particular attributes of a symptom, such as frequency, triggers or seasonality, are only applicable to those who have experienced the symptom, while for those who have not, responses to these items will be missing. This missing information does not fall into the category 'missing by design', rather the features of interest do not exist and cannot be measured regardless of survey design. Analysis of responses to such conditional items is therefore typically restricted to the subpopulation in which they apply. This article is concerned with joint multivariate modelling of responses to both unconditional and conditional items without restricting the analysis to this subpopulation. Such an approach is of interest when the distributions of both types of responses are thought to be determined by common parameters affecting the whole population. By integrating the conditional item structure into the model, inference can be based both on unconditional data from the entire population and on conditional data from subjects for whom they exist. This approach opens new possibilities for multivariate analysis of such data. We apply this approach to latent class modelling and provide an example using data on respiratory symptoms (wheeze and cough) in children. Conditional data structures such as that considered here are common in medical research settings and, although our focus is on latent class models, the approach can be applied to other multivariate models.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Evaluation of 3-dimensional superimposition techniques on various skeletal structures of the head using surface models.

OBJECTIVES To test the applicability, accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of various 3D superimposition techniques for radiographic data, transformed to triangulated surface data. METHODS Five superimposition techniques (3P: three-point registration; AC: anterior cranial base; AC + F: anterior cranial base + foramen magnum; BZ: both zygomatic arches; 1Z: one zygomatic arch) were tested using eight pairs of pre-existing CT data (pre- and post-treatment). These were obtained from non-growing orthodontic patients treated with rapid maxillary expansion. All datasets were superimposed by three operators independently, who repeated the whole procedure one month later. Accuracy was assessed by the distance (D) between superimposed datasets on three form-stable anatomical areas, located on the anterior cranial base and the foramen magnum. Precision and reproducibility were assessed using the distances between models at four specific landmarks. Non parametric multivariate models and Bland-Altman difference plots were used for analyses. RESULTS There was no difference among operators or between time points on the accuracy of each superimposition technique (p>0.05). The AC + F technique was the most accurate (D<0.17 mm), as expected, followed by AC and BZ superimpositions that presented similar level of accuracy (D<0.5 mm). 3P and 1Z were the least accurate superimpositions (0.790.05), the detected structural changes differed significantly between different techniques (p<0.05). Bland-Altman difference plots showed that BZ superimposition was comparable to AC, though it presented slightly higher random error. CONCLUSIONS Superimposition of 3D datasets using surface models created from voxel data can provide accurate, precise, and reproducible results, offering also high efficiency and increased post-processing capabilities. In the present study population, the BZ superimposition was comparable to AC, with the added advantage of being applicable to scans with a smaller field of view.

Screening and prediction of erosive potential

The literature on the erosive potential of drinks and other products is summarised, and aspects of the conduct of screening tests as well as possible correlations of the erosive potential with various solution parameters are discussed. The solution parameters that have been suggested as important include pH, acid concentration (with respect to buffer capacity and concentration of undissociated acid), degree of saturation, calcium and phosphate concentrations, and inhibitors of erosion. Based on the available data, it is concluded that the dominant factor in erosion is pH. The effect of buffer capacity seems to be pH dependent. The degree of saturation probably has a non-linear relationship with erosion. While calcium at elevated concentrations is known to reduce erosion effectively, it is not known whether it is important at naturally occurring concentrations. Fluoride at naturally occurring concentrations is inversely correlated with erosive potential, but phosphate is probably not. Natural plant gums, notably pectin, do not inhibit erosion, so they are unlikely to interfere with the prediction of erosive potential. The non-linearity of some solution factors and interactions with pH need to be taken into account when developing multivariate models for predicting the erosive potential of different solutions. Finally, the erosive potential of solutions towards enamel and dentine might differ.

The influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on survival and local recurrence after colorectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND: Past studies have identified surgeon- and institution- related characteristics as prognostic factors in colorectal cancer surgery. The present work assesses the influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on long-term results of colorectal cancer surgery. METHODS: The data on 2706 patients from 2, randomized, colorectal cancer trials (Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research [SAKK] 40/81, SAKK 40/87) investigating adjuvant intraportal and systemic chemotherapy and 1 concurrent registration study (SAKK 40/88) were reviewed. A first analysis included 1809 eligible, nonmetastatic patients from all 3 studies. A subsequent subgroup analysis included 915 eligible patients from both randomized trials. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local recurrence (LR) were analyzed in multivariate models taking into account the possible effect of clustering. The main potential covariates were surgeon's annual caseload (>5 operations/year vs < or =5 operations/year), hospital's annual caseload (>26 operations/year vs < or =26 operations/year), tumor site, T stage, and nodal status. RESULTS: Primary analysis of all 3 studies combined found a high surgeon's caseload to be positively associated with OS (P = .025) and marginally with DFS (P = .058). Separate analysis for each trial, however, showed that a high surgeon's caseload was beneficial for outcome in both randomized trials but not in the registration study. A subgroup analysis of 915 patients with 376 rectal and 539 colonic primaries from both randomized trials, therefore, was performed. Neither age, gender, year of operation, adjuvant chemotherapy (intraportal vs systemic vs operation alone), hospital academic status (university vs non-university), training status of the surgeon (certified surgeon vs surgeon-in-training), nor inclusion in 1 of the 2 randomized trials (SAKK 40/81 vs SAKK 40/87) was a significant predictor of outcome. However, both high surgeon's and high hospital's annual caseloads were independent, beneficial prognostic factors for OS (P = .0003, P = .044) and DFS (P = .0008, P = .020), and marginally significant factors for LR (P = .057, P = .055). CONCLUSIONS: High surgeon's and hospital's annual caseloads are strong, independent prognostic factors for extending overall and disease-free survival and reducing the rate of local recurrence in 2 randomized colorectal cancer trials.

Substitutions due to antiretroviral toxicity or contraindication in the first 3 years of antiretroviral therapy in a large South African cohort

INTRODUCTION: The patterns and reasons for antiretroviral therapy (ART) drug substitutions are poorly described in resource-limited settings. METHODS: Time to and reason for drug substitution were recorded in treatment-naive adults receiving ART in two primary care treatment programmes in Cape Town. The cumulative proportion of patients having therapy changed because of toxicity was described for each drug, and associations with these changes were explored in multivariate models. RESULTS: Analysis included 2,679 individuals followed for a median of 11 months. Median CD4+ T-cell count at baseline was 85 cells/microl. Mean weight was 59 kg, mean age was 32 years and 71% were women. All started non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based ART (60% on efavrienz) and 75% started on stavudine (d4T). After 3 years, 75% remained in care on-site, of whom 72% remained on their initial regimen. Substitutions due to toxicity of nevirapine (8% by 3 years), efavirenz (2%) and zidovudine (8%) occurred early. Substitutions on d4T occurred in 21% of patients by 3 years, due to symptomatic hyperlactataemia (5%), lipodystrophy (9%) or peripheral neuropathy (6%), and continued to accumulate over time. Those at greatest risk of hyperlactataemia or lipodystrophy were women on ART > or =6 months, weighing > or =75 kg at baseline. DISCUSSION: A high proportion of adult patients are able to tolerate their initial ART regimen for up to 3 years. In most instances treatment-limiting toxicities occur early, but continue to accumulate over time in patients on d4T. Whilst awaiting other treatment options, the risks of known toxicities could be minimized through early identification of patients at the highest risk.

Incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy over 20 years of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: We investigated the incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals before and after the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in 1996. METHODS: From 1988 through 2007, 226 cases of PML were reported to the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. By chart review, we confirmed 186 cases and recorded all-cause and PML-attributable mortality. For the survival analysis, 25 patients with postmortem diagnosis and 2 without CD4+ T cell counts were excluded, leaving a total of 159 patients (89 before 1996 and 70 during 1996-2007). RESULTS: The incidence rate of PML decreased from 0.24 cases per 100 patient-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.29 cases per 100 PY) before 1996 to 0.06 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 0.04-0.10 cases per 100 PY) from 1996 onward. Patients who received a diagnosis before 1996 had a higher frequency of prior acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining conditions (P = .007) but similar CD4+ T cell counts (60 vs. 71 cells/microL; P = .25), compared with patients who received a diagnosis during 1996 or thereafter. The median time to PML-attributable death was 71 days (interquartile range, 44-140 days), compared with 90 days (interquartile range, 54-313 days) for all-cause mortality. The PML-attributable 1-year mortality rate decreased from 82.3 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 58.8-115.1 cases per 100 PY) during the pre-cART era to 37.6 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 23.4.-60.5 cases per 100 PY) during the cART era. In multivariate models, cART was the only factor associated with lower PML-attributable mortality (hazard ratio, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.07-0.50; P < .001), whereas all-cause mortality was associated with baseline CD4+ T cell count (hazard ratio per increase of 100 cells/microL, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P = .010) and cART use (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.19-0.75; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS: cART reduced the incidence and PML-attributable 1-year mortality, regardless of baseline CD4+ T cell count, whereas overall mortality was dependent on cART use and baseline CD4+ T cell count.

Effects of buffering properties and undissociated acid concentration on dissolution of dental enamel in relation to pH and acid type

To quantify the relationships between buffering properties and acid erosion and hence improve models of erosive potential of acidic drinks, a pH-stat was used to measure the rate of enamel dissolution in solutions of citric, malic and lactic acids, with pH 2.4-3.6 and with acid concentrations adjusted to give buffer capacities (β) of 2-40 (mmol·l(-1))·pH(-1) for each pH. The corresponding undissociated acid concentrations, [HA], and titratable acidity to pH 5.5 (TA5.5) were calculated. In relation to β, the dissolution rate and the strength of response to β varied with acid type (lactic > malic ≥ citric) and decreased as pH increased. The patterns of variation of the dissolution rate with TA5.5 were qualitatively similar to those for β, except that increasing pH above 2.8 had less effect on dissolution in citric and malic acids and none on dissolution in lactic acid. Variations of the dissolution rate with [HA] showed no systematic dependence on acid type but some dependence on pH. The results suggest that [HA], rather than buffering per se, is a major rate-controlling factor, probably owing to the importance of undissociated acid as a readily diffusible source of H(+) ions in maintaining near-surface dissolution within the softened layer of enamel. TA5.5 was more closely correlated with [HA] than was β, and seems to be the preferred practical measure of buffering. The relationship between [HA] and TA5.5 differs between mono- and polybasic acids, so a separate analysis of products according to predominant acid type could improve multivariate models of erosive potential.

Cichlid species-area relationships are shaped by adaptive radiations that scale with area

A positive relationship between species richness and island size is thought to emerge from an equilibrium between immigration and extinction rates, but the influence of species diversification on the form of this relationship is poorly understood. Here, we show that within-lake adaptive radiation strongly modifies the species-area relationship for African cichlid fishes. The total number of species derived from in situ speciation increases with lake size, resulting in faunas orders of magnitude higher in species richness than faunas assembled by immigration alone. Multivariate models provide evidence for added influence of lake depth on the species-area relationship. Diversity of clades representing within-lake radiations show responses to lake area, depth and energy consistent with limitation by these factors, suggesting that ecological factors influence the species richness of radiating clades within these ecosystems. Together, these processes produce lake fish faunas with highly variable composition, but with diversities that are well predicted by environmental variables.

Social relationship correlates of major depressive disorder and depressive symptoms in Switzerland: nationally representative cross sectional study

BACKGROUND The quality and quantity of social relationships are associated with depression but there is less evidence regarding which aspects of social relationship are most predictive. We evaluated the relative magnitude and independence of the association of four social relationship domains with major depressive disorder and depressive symptoms. METHODS We analyzed a cross-sectional telephone interview and postal survey of a probability sample of adults living in Switzerland (N = 12,286). Twelve-month major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview over the telephone using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The postal survey assessed depressive symptoms as well as variables representing emotional support, tangible support, social integration, and loneliness. RESULTS Each individual social relationship domain was associated with both outcome measures, but in multivariate models being lonely and perceiving unmet emotional support had the largest and most consistent associations across depression outcomes (incidence rate ratios ranging from 1.55-9.97 for loneliness and from 1.23-1.40 for unmet support, p's < 0.05). All social relationship domains except marital status were independently associated with depressive symptoms whereas only loneliness and unmet support were associated with depressive disorder. CONCLUSIONS Perceived quality and frequency of social relationships are associated with clinical depression and depressive symptoms across a wide adult age spectrum. This study extends prior work linking loneliness to depression by showing that a broad range of social relationship domains are associated with psychological well-being.

Identification of 2-Piperidone as a Biomarker of CYP2E1 Activity Through Metabolomic Phenotyping

Cytochrome P450 2E1 (CYP2E1) is a key enzyme in the metabolic activation of many low molecular weight toxicants and also an important contributor to oxidative stress. A noninvasive method to monitor CYP2E1 activity in vivo would be of great value for studying the role of CYP2E1 in chemical-induced toxicities and stress-related diseases. In this study, a mass spectrometry-based metabolomic approach was used to identify a metabolite biomarker of CYP2E1 through comparing the urine metabolomes of wild-type (WT), Cyp2e1-null, and CYP2E1-humanized mice. Metabolomic analysis with multivariate models of urine metabolites revealed a clear separation of Cyp2e1-null mice from WT and CYP2E1-humanized mice in the multivariate models of urine metabolomes. Subsequently, 2-piperidone was identified as a urinary metabolite that inversely correlated to the CYP2E1 activity in the three mouse lines. Backcrossing of WT and Cyp2e1-null mice, together with targeted analysis of 2-piperidone in mouse serum, confirmed the genotype dependency of 2-piperidone. The accumulation of 2-piperidone in the Cyp2e1-null mice was mainly caused by the changes in the biosynthesis and degradation of 2-piperidone because compared with the WT mice, the conversion of cadaverine to 2-piperidone was higher, whereas the metabolism of 2-piperidone to 6-hydroxy-2-piperidone was lower in the Cyp2e1-null mice. Overall, untargeted metabolomic analysis identified a correlation between 2-piperidone concentrations in urine and the expression and activity of CYP2E1, thus providing a noninvasive metabolite biomarker that can be potentially used in to monitor CYP2E1 activity.

Prognostic factors and outcomes in primary urethral cancer: results from the international collaboration on primary urethral carcinoma.

PURPOSE To evaluate risk factors for survival in a large international cohort of patients with primary urethral cancer (PUC). METHODS A series of 154 patients (109 men, 45 women) were diagnosed with PUC in ten referral centers between 1993 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test was used to investigate various potential prognostic factors for recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate models were constructed to evaluate independent risk factors for recurrence and death. RESULTS Median age at definitive treatment was 66 years (IQR 58-76). Histology was urothelial carcinoma in 72 (47 %), squamous cell carcinoma in 46 (30 %), adenocarcinoma in 17 (11 %), and mixed and other histology in 11 (7 %) and nine (6 %), respectively. A high degree of concordance between clinical and pathologic nodal staging (cN+/cN0 vs. pN+/pN0; p < 0.001) was noted. For clinical nodal staging, the corresponding sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for predicting pathologic nodal stage were 92.8, 92.3, and 92.4 %, respectively. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis for patients staged cM0 at initial diagnosis, RFS was significantly associated with clinical nodal stage (p < 0.001), tumor location (p < 0.001), and age (p = 0.001), whereas clinical nodal stage was the only independent predictor for OS (p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that clinical nodal stage is a critical parameter for outcomes in PUC.

Association of Trait Resilience With Peritraumatic and Posttraumatic Stress in Patients With Myocardial Infarction.

OBJECTIVE Acute myocardial infarction (MI) is a life-threatening condition, leading to immediate fear and distress in many patients. Approximately 18% of patients develop posttraumatic stress disorder in the aftermath of MI. Trait resilience has shown to be a protective factor for the development of posttraumatic stress disorder. However, whether this buffering effect has already an impact on peritraumatic distress and applies to patients with MI is elusive. METHODS We investigated 98 consecutive patients with acute MI within 48 hours after having reached stable circulatory conditions and 3 months thereafter. Peritraumatic distress was assessed retrospectively with three single-item questions about pain, fear, and helplessness during MI. All patients completed the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale (PDS) and the Resilience Scale to self-rate posttraumatic stress and trait resilience. RESULTS Multivariate models adjusting for sociodemographic and medical factors showed that trait resilience was not associated with peritraumatic distress, but significantly so with posttraumatic stress. Patients with greater trait resilience showed lower PDS scores (b = -0.06, p < .001). There was no significant relationship between peritraumatic distress scores and PDS scores; resilience did not emerge as a moderator of this relationship. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that trait resilience does not buffer the perception of acute MI as stressful per se but may enhance better coping with the traumatic experience in the longer term, thus preventing the development of MI-associated posttraumatic stress. Trait resilience may play an important role in posttraumatic stress symptoms triggered by medical diseases such as acute MI.

Is the sedimentation sign associated with spinal stenosis surgical treatment effect in SPORT?

STUDY DESIGN Subgroup analysis of the lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) without degenerative spondylolisthesis diagnostic cohort of the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial multicenter randomized clinical trial with a concurrent observational cohort. OBJECTIVE To determine if sedimentation sign on magnetic resonance image can help with LSS treatment decisions. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA LSS is one of the most common reasons for surgery in the US elderly, but there is a dearth of reliable diagnostic tools that give a clear indication for surgery. Recent studies have suggested that positive sedimentation sign on magnetic resonance image may be a possible prognostic indicator. METHODS All patients with LSS in both the randomized and observational cohorts had imaging-confirmed stenosis, were surgical candidates, and had neurogenic claudication for at least 12 weeks prior to enrollment. Patients were categorized as "mild," "moderate," or "severe" according to stenosis severity. Of the 654 patients with LSS enrolled in Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial, complete T2-weighted axial and sagittal digitized images of 115 patients were available for retrospective review. An independent orthopedic spine surgeon evaluated these deidentified Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine files for the sedimentation sign. RESULTS Sixty-six percent (76/115) of patients were found to have a positive sedimentation sign. Those with a positive sedimentation sign were more likely to have stenosis at L2-L3 (33% vs. 10% P=0.016) or L3-L4 76% vs. 51%, P=0.012), and to have severe (72% vs. 33%, P<0.0001) central stenosis (93% vs. 67% P<0.001) at 2 or more concurrent levels (57% vs. 18%, P=0.01). In multivariate models, the surgical treatment effect was significantly larger in the positive sedimentation sign group for Oswestry Disability Index (-16 vs. -7; P=0.02). CONCLUSION A positive sedimentation sign was associated with a small but significantly greater surgical treatment effect for Oswestry Disability Index in patients with symptomatic LSS, after adjusting for other demographic and imaging features. These findings suggest that positive sedimentation sign may potentially be a useful adjunct to help guide an informed treatment choice regarding surgery for LSS. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE 2.

Influence of previous surgery on patient-rated outcome after surgery for degenerative disorders of the lumbar spine.

PURPOSE Few studies have used multivariate models to quantify the effect of multiple previous spine surgeries on patient-oriented outcome after spine surgery. This study sought to quantify the effect of prior spine surgery on 12-month postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for different degenerative disorders of the lumbar spine. METHODS The study included 4940 patients with lumbar degenerative disease documented in the Spine Tango Registry of EUROSPINE, the Spine Society of Europe, from 2004 to 2015. Preoperatively and 12 months postoperatively, patients completed the multidimensional Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI; 0-10 scale). Patients' medical history and surgical details were recorded using the Spine Tango Surgery 2006 and 2011 forms. Multiple linear regression models were used to investigate the relationship between the number of previous surgeries and the 12-month postoperative COMI score, controlling for the baseline COMI score and other potential confounders. RESULTS In the adjusted model including all cases, the 12-month COMI score showed a 0.37-point worse value [95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) 0.29-0.45; p < 0.001] for each additional prior spine surgery. In the subgroup of patients with lumbar disc herniation, the corresponding effect was 0.52 points (95 % CI 0.27-0.77; p < 0.001) and in lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis, 0.40 points (95 % CI 0.17-0.64; p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS We were able to demonstrate a clear "dose-response" effect for previous surgery: the greater the number of prior spine surgeries, the systematically worse the outcome at 12 months' follow-up. The results of this study can be used when considering or consenting a patient for further surgery, to better inform the patient of the likely outcome and to set realistic expectations.