Multiplicity of data in trial reports and the reliability of meta-analyses: empirical study

Objectives To examine the extent of multiplicity of data in trial reports and to assess the impact of multiplicity on meta-analysis results. Design Empirical study on a cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. Data sources All Cochrane systematic reviews published from issue 3 in 2006 to issue 2 in 2007 that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD). We retrieved trial reports contributing to the first SMD result in each review, and downloaded review protocols. We used these SMDs to identify a specific outcome for each meta-analysis from its protocol. Review methods Reviews were eligible if SMD results were based on two to ten randomised trials and if protocols described the outcome. We excluded reviews if they only presented results of subgroup analyses. Based on review protocols and index outcomes, two observers independently extracted the data necessary to calculate SMDs from the original trial reports for any intervention group, time point, or outcome measure compatible with the protocol. From the extracted data, we used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate all possible SMDs for every meta-analysis. Results We identified 19 eligible meta-analyses (including 83 trials). Published review protocols often lacked information about which data to choose. Twenty-four (29%) trials reported data for multiple intervention groups, 30 (36%) reported data for multiple time points, and 29 (35%) reported the index outcome measured on multiple scales. In 18 meta-analyses, we found multiplicity of data in at least one trial report; the median difference between the smallest and largest SMD results within a meta-analysis was 0.40 standard deviation units (range 0.04 to 0.91). Conclusions Multiplicity of data can affect the findings of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To reduce the risk of bias, reviews and meta-analyses should comply with prespecified protocols that clearly identify time points, intervention groups, and scales of interest.

The role of admission blood glucose in outcome prediction of surviving patients with multiple injuries

BACKGROUND: Recent literature demonstrates hyperglycemia to be common in patients with trauma and associated with poor outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury and critically ill patients. The goal of this study was to analyze the impact of admission blood glucose on the outcome of surviving patients with multiple injuries. METHODS: Patients' charts (age >16) admitted to the emergency room of the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2004, with an Injury Severity Score >or=17 and more than one severely injured organ system were reviewed retrospectively. Outcome measurements included morbidity, intensive care unit, and hospital length of stay. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 555 patients, of which 108 (19.5%) patients died. After multiple regression analysis, admission blood glucose proved to be an independent predictor of posttraumatic morbidity (p < 0.0001), intensive care unit, and hospital length of stay (p < 0.0001), despite intensified insulin therapy on the intensive care unit. CONCLUSIONS: In this population of patients with multiple injuries, hyperglycemia on admission was strongly associated with increased morbidity, especially infections, prolonged intensive care unit, and hospital length of stay independent of injury severity, gender, age, and various biochemical parameters.

Quantification of Mitral Regurgitation with Multiple Jets: In Vitro Comparison of Two-dimensional PISA techniques

Purpose: Traditionally, the proximal isovelocity surface area (PISA) is based on the assumption of a single hemisphere (hemispheric PISA), but this technique has not been validated for the quantification of mitral regurgitation (MR) with multiple jets. Methods: The left heart simulator was actuated by a pulsatile pump at various stroke amplitudes. The regurgitant volume (Rvol) passing through the mitral valve phantoms with single and double regurgitant orifices of varying size and interspace was quantified by a flowmeter as reference technique. Color Doppler 3-D full-volumes were obtained, and Rvol were derived from 2-D PISA surfaces on the basis of hemispheric and hemicylindric assumption with one base (partial hemicylindric PISA) or 2 bases (total hemicylindric PISA). Results: 72 regurgitant volumes (Rvol range: 8 to 76 ml/beat) were obtained. Hemispheric PISA Rvol correlated well with reference Rvol by one orifice (R²=0.97; bias -2.7±3.2ml), but less by ≥ one orifice (R²=0.89). When a fusion of two PISAs occured, addition of two hemispheric PISA overestimated Rvol (bias 9.1±12.2ml, fig.1), and single hemispheric PISA underestimated Rvol (bias -12.4±4.9ml). If an integrated approach was used (hemispheric in single orifice, total hemicylindric in two non-fused PISAs and partial hemicylindric in two fused PISAs), the correlation was R²=0.95, bias -1.6±5.6ml (fig.2). In the ROC analysis, the cutoff to detect ≥ moderate-to-severe Rvol (≥45ml) was 42ml (AUC 0.99, sens. 100%, spec. 93%). Conclusions: In MR with two regurgitant jets, the 2-D hemicylindric assumption of the PISA offers a better quantification of Rvol than the hemispheric assumption. Quantification of MR using 2-D PISA requires an integrated approach that considers number of regurgitant orifices and fusion of the PISAs.

Island Invasion by a Threatened Tree Species: Evidence for Natural Enemy Release of Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) on Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Despite its appeal to explain plant invasions, the enemy release hypothesis (ERH) remains largely unexplored for tropical forest trees. Even scarcer are ERH studies conducted on the same host species at both the community and biogeographical scale, irrespective of the system or plant life form. In Cabrits National Park, Dominica, we observed patterns consistent with enemy release of two introduced, congeneric mahogany species, Swietenia macrophylla and S. mahagoni, planted almost 50 years ago. Swietenia populations at Cabrits have reproduced, with S. macrophylla juveniles established in and out of plantation areas at densities much higher than observed in its native range. Swietenia macrophylla juveniles also experienced significantly lower leaf-level herbivory (~3.0%) than nine co-occurring species native to Dominica (8.4–21.8%), and far lower than conspecific herbivory observed in its native range (11%–43%, on average). These complimentary findings at multiple scales support ERH, and confirm that Swietenia has naturalized at Cabrits. However, Swietenia abundance was positively correlated with native plant diversity at the seedling stage, and only marginally negatively correlated with native plant abundance for stems ≥1-cm dbh. Taken together, these descriptive patterns point to relaxed enemy pressure from specialized enemies, specifically the defoliator Steniscadia poliophaea and the shoot-borer Hypsipyla grandella, as a leading explanation for the enhanced recruitment of Swietenia trees documented at Cabrits.

Space debris attitude simulation - ιOTA (In-Orbit Tumbling Analysis)

Today, there is little knowledge on the attitude state of decommissioned intact objects in Earth orbit. Observational means have advanced in the past years, but are still limited with respect to an accurate estimate of motion vector orientations and magnitude. Especially for the preparation of Active Debris Removal (ADR) missions as planned by ESA’s Clean Space initiative or contingency scenarios for ESA spacecraft like ENVISAT, such knowledge is needed. ESA's “Debris Attitude Motion Measurements and Modelling” project (ESA Contract No. 40000112447), led by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), addresses this problem. The goal of the project is to achieve a good understanding of the attitude evolution and the considerable internal and external effects which occur. To characterize the attitude state of selected targets in LEO and GTO, multiple observation methods are combined. Optical observations are carried out by AIUB, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) is performed by the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (IWF) and radar measurements and signal level determination are provided by the Fraunhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques (FHR). The In-Orbit Tumbling Analysis tool (ιOTA) is a prototype software, currently in development by Hyperschall Technologie Göttingen GmbH (HTG) within the framework of the project. ιOTA will be a highly modular software tool to perform short-(days), medium-(months) and long-term (years) propagation of the orbit and attitude motion (six degrees-of-freedom) of spacecraft in Earth orbit. The simulation takes into account all relevant acting forces and torques, including aerodynamic drag, solar radiation pressure, gravitational influences of Earth, Sun and Moon, eddy current damping, impulse and momentum transfer from space debris or micro meteoroid impact, as well as the optional definition of particular spacecraft specific influences like tank sloshing, reaction wheel behaviour, magnetic torquer activity and thruster firing. The purpose of ιOTA is to provide high accuracy short-term simulations to support observers and potential ADR missions, as well as medium-and long-term simulations to study the significance of the particular internal and external influences on the attitude, especially damping factors and momentum transfer. The simulation will also enable the investigation of the altitude dependency of the particular external influences. ιOTA's post-processing modules will generate synthetic measurements for observers and for software validation. The validation of the software will be done by cross-calibration with observations and measurements acquired by the project partners.

How valuable are multiple treatment comparison methods in evidence-based health-care evaluation?

Objectives To compare the use of pair-wise meta-analysis methods to multiple treatment comparison (MTC) methods for evidence-based health-care evaluation to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative health-care interventions based on the available evidence. Methods Pair-wise meta-analysis and more complex evidence syntheses, incorporating an MTC component, are applied to three examples: 1) clinical effectiveness of interventions for preventing strokes in people with atrial fibrillation; 2) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using drug-eluting stents in percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with coronary artery disease; and 3) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using neuraminidase inhibitors in the treatment of influenza. We compare the two synthesis approaches with respect to the assumptions made, empirical estimates produced, and conclusions drawn. Results The difference between point estimates of effectiveness produced by the pair-wise and MTC approaches was generally unpredictable—sometimes agreeing closely whereas in other instances differing considerably. In all three examples, the MTC approach allowed the inclusion of randomized controlled trial evidence ignored in the pair-wise meta-analysis approach. This generally increased the precision of the effectiveness estimates from the MTC model. Conclusions The MTC approach to synthesis allows the evidence base on clinical effectiveness to be treated as a coherent whole, include more data, and sometimes relax the assumptions made in the pair-wise approaches. However, MTC models are necessarily more complex than those developed for pair-wise meta-analysis and thus could be seen as less transparent. Therefore, it is important that model details and the assumptions made are carefully reported alongside the results.

Multiple time scales of temporal response in pyramidal and fast spiking cortical neurons

Neural dynamic processes correlated over several time scales are found in vivo, in stimulus-evoked as well as spontaneous activity, and are thought to affect the way sensory stimulation is processed. Despite their potential computational consequences, a systematic description of the presence of multiple time scales in single cortical neurons is lacking. In this study, we injected fast spiking and pyramidal (PYR) neurons in vitro with long-lasting episodes of step-like and noisy, in-vivo-like current. Several processes shaped the time course of the instantaneous spike frequency, which could be reduced to a small number (1-4) of phenomenological mechanisms, either reducing (adapting) or increasing (facilitating) the neuron's firing rate over time. The different adaptation/facilitation processes cover a wide range of time scales, ranging from initial adaptation (<10 ms, PYR neurons only), to fast adaptation (<300 ms), early facilitation (0.5-1 s, PYR only), and slow (or late) adaptation (order of seconds). These processes are characterized by broad distributions of their magnitudes and time constants across cells, showing that multiple time scales are at play in cortical neurons, even in response to stationary stimuli and in the presence of input fluctuations. These processes might be part of a cascade of processes responsible for the power-law behavior of adaptation observed in several preparations, and may have far-reaching computational consequences that have been recently described.

A generalized anisotropic quadric yield criterion and its application to bone tissue at multiple length scales

Nonlinear computational analysis of materials showing elasto-plasticity or damage relies on knowledge of their yield behavior and strengths under complex stress states. In this work, a generalized anisotropic quadric yield criterion is proposed that is homogeneous of degree one and takes a convex quadric shape with a smooth transition from ellipsoidal to cylindrical or conical surfaces. If in the case of material identification, the shape of the yield function is not known a priori, a minimization using the quadric criterion will result in the optimal shape among the convex quadrics. The convexity limits of the criterion and the transition points between the different shapes are identified. Several special cases of the criterion for distinct material symmetries such as isotropy, cubic symmetry, fabric-based orthotropy and general orthotropy are presented and discussed. The generality of the formulation is demonstrated by showing its degeneration to several classical yield surfaces like the von Mises, Drucker–Prager, Tsai–Wu, Liu, generalized Hill and classical Hill criteria under appropriate conditions. Applicability of the formulation for micromechanical analyses was shown by transformation of a criterion for porous cohesive-frictional materials by Maghous et al. In order to demonstrate the advantages of the generalized formulation, bone is chosen as an example material, since it features yield envelopes with different shapes depending on the considered length scale. A fabric- and density-based quadric criterion for the description of homogenized material behavior of trabecular bone is identified from uniaxial, multiaxial and torsional experimental data. Also, a fabric- and density-based Tsai–Wu yield criterion for homogenized trabecular bone from in silico data is converted to an equivalent quadric criterion by introduction of a transformation of the interaction parameters. Finally, a quadric yield criterion for lamellar bone at the microscale is identified from a nanoindentation study reported in the literature, thus demonstrating the applicability of the generalized formulation to the description of the yield envelope of bone at multiple length scales.

Improved methods for measuring forest landscape structure: LiDAR complements field-based habitat assessment

Conservation and monitoring of forest biodiversity requires reliable information about forest structure and composition at multiple spatial scales. However, detailed data about forest habitat characteristics across large areas are often incomplete due to difficulties associated with field sampling methods. To overcome this limitation we employed a nationally available light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing dataset to develop variables describing forest landscape structure across a large environmental gradient in Switzerland. Using a model species indicative of structurally rich mountain forests (hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia), we tested the potential of such variables to predict species occurrence and evaluated the additional benefit of LiDAR data when used in combination with traditional, sample plot-based field variables. We calibrated boosted regression trees (BRT) models for both variable sets separately and in combination, and compared the models’ accuracies. While both field-based and LiDAR models performed well, combining the two data sources improved the accuracy of the species’ habitat model. The variables retained from the two datasets held different types of information: field variables mostly quantified food resources and cover in the field and shrub layer, LiDAR variables characterized heterogeneity of vegetation structure which correlated with field variables describing the understory and ground vegetation. When combined with data on forest vegetation composition from field surveys, LiDAR provides valuable complementary information for encompassing species niches more comprehensively. Thus, LiDAR bridges the gap between precise, locally restricted field-data and coarse digital land cover information by reliably identifying habitat structure and quality across large areas.

Itineraries of pottery: a mixed methods approach to mobility

Neolithic wetland sites in the Swiss Plateau provide an extraordinary database for the study of mobilities, entanglements and transformations in material culture. Based on dendrochronologically dated settlements between 3900 and 3500 BC, two regional pottery styles and their local variations are well known, Pfyn and Cortaillod. The vessels share the same habitus and were made of local raw materials. However, some vessels specific to other pottery styles are also present in the sites. By focusing on itineraries of vessels and shifts in pottery knowledge, their appropriation in different contexts and the resulting material entanglements, we want to approach the multiple regimes of mobility: At Lake Constance - known for Pfyn pottery - specific Michelsberg vessels like tulip beakers and lugged jars occur in small numbers. These travelling objects were produced with exogenous raw materials and transported to the sites from Southern Germany. At Concise (Lake Neuchâtel) besides the local Cortaillod pottery the whole repertoire of NMB pottery, characteristic for Eastern France, was also produced. Further cases from the same space-time frame point to other regimes of mobility. In our two PhD-projects we compare pottery practices - styles, techniques, raw materials - from over 20 key sites in the region. Based on Bourdieu’s reflexive anthropology, we apply different qualitative and quantitative archaeological and archaeometrical methods, thus striving for a deeper understanding of habitus and the transformative potential of moving people, objects and ideas on local and regional scales and related social contexts.

The relationship between self-efficacy and resting blood pressure in spousal Alzheimer's caregivers

Objective. To examine whether high levels of self-efficacy for problem-focused coping were significantly related to several resting BP measures in spousal Alzheimer's disease caregivers. Design. Cross-sectional. Methods. Participants included 100 older caregivers (mean age = 73.8 ± 8.14 years) providing in home care for a spouse with Alzheimer's disease. All participants completed a 13-item short form of the Coping Self-Efficacy Scale and underwent an in-home assessment where a visiting nurse took the average of three serial BP readings. Multiple regression was used to examine the relationship between self-efficacy and mean arterial pressure (MAP), systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), and pulse pressure (PP) after controlling for age, gender, smoking history, body mass index, the care recipient's clinical dementia rating, diabetes, alcohol use, and the use of antihypertensive medications. Results. Overall, high levels of self-efficacy for problem-focused coping were associated with lower MAP, SBP, and PP. Self-efficacy for problem-focused coping was marginally associated with resting DBP, but not significant. In addition, we conducted secondary analyses of the other two self-efficacy scales to explore the relationship between each dimension and MAP. We found that there were no significant relationships found between MAP and self-efficacy for stopping unpleasant thoughts/emotions or self-efficacy for getting social support. Conclusions. The present study adds to the current body of literature by illustrating the possibility that higher self-efficacy can have physiological advantages, perhaps by buffering chronic stress's impact on resting BP. Another contribution of the current study is its attempt to understand the role of each individual component of self-efficacy. These findings invite future research to investigate whether caregivers might experience cardiovascular benefits from interventions aimed at enhancing self-efficacy.

Rarely selected distractors in high stakes medical multiple-choice examinations and their recognition by item authors: A simulation and survey

Background Many medical exams use 5 options for multiple choice questions (MCQs), although the literature suggests that 3 options are optimal. Previous studies on this topic have often been based on non-medical examinations, so we sought to analyse rarely selected, 'non-functional' distractors (NF-D) in high stakes medical examinations, and their detection by item authors as well as psychometric changes resulting from a reduction in the number of options. Methods Based on Swiss Federal MCQ examinations from 2005-2007, the frequency of NF-D (selected by <1% or <5% of the candidates) was calculated. Distractors that were chosen the least or second least were identified and candidates who chose them were allocated to the remaining options using two extreme assumptions about their hypothetical behaviour: In case rarely selected distractors were eliminated, candidates could randomly choose another option - or purposively choose the correct answer, from which they had originally been distracted. In a second step, 37 experts were asked to mark the least plausible options. The consequences of a reduction from 4 to 3 or 2 distractors - based on item statistics or on the experts' ratings - with respect to difficulty, discrimination and reliability were modelled. Results About 70% of the 5-option-items had at least 1 NF-D selected by <1% of the candidates (97% for NF-Ds selected by <5%). Only a reduction to 2 distractors and assuming that candidates would switch to the correct answer in the absence of a 'non-functional' distractor led to relevant differences in reliability and difficulty (and to a lesser degree discrimination). The experts' ratings resulted in slightly greater changes compared to the statistical approach. Conclusions Based on item statistics and/or an expert panel's recommendation, the choice of a varying number of 3-4 (or partly 2) plausible distractors could be performed without marked deteriorations in psychometric characteristics.