Dynamic SLA management with forecasting using multi-objective optimization

Cost-efficient operation while satisfying performance and availability guarantees in Service Level Agreements (SLAs) is a challenge for Cloud Computing, as these are potentially conflicting objectives. We present a framework for SLA management based on multi-objective optimization. The framework features a forecasting model for determining the best virtual machine-to-host allocation given the need to minimize SLA violations, energy consumption and resource wasting. A comprehensive SLA management solution is proposed that uses event processing for monitoring and enables dynamic provisioning of virtual machines onto the physical infrastructure. We validated our implementation against serveral standard heuristics and were able to show that our approach is significantly better.

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

SOP: Parallel surrogate global optimization with Pareto center selection for computationally expensive single objective problems

This paper presents a parallel surrogate-based global optimization method for computationally expensive objective functions that is more effective for larger numbers of processors. To reach this goal, we integrated concepts from multi-objective optimization and tabu search into, single objective, surrogate optimization. Our proposed derivative-free algorithm, called SOP, uses non-dominated sorting of points for which the expensive function has been previously evaluated. The two objectives are the expensive function value of the point and the minimum distance of the point to previously evaluated points. Based on the results of non-dominated sorting, P points from the sorted fronts are selected as centers from which many candidate points are generated by random perturbations. Based on surrogate approximation, the best candidate point is subsequently selected for expensive evaluation for each of the P centers, with simultaneous computation on P processors. Centers that previously did not generate good solutions are tabu with a given tenure. We show almost sure convergence of this algorithm under some conditions. The performance of SOP is compared with two RBF based methods. The test results show that SOP is an efficient method that can reduce time required to find a good near optimal solution. In a number of cases the efficiency of SOP is so good that SOP with 8 processors found an accurate answer in less wall-clock time than the other algorithms did with 32 processors.

Quantifying uncertainty on Pareto fronts with Gaussian process conditional simulations

Multi-objective optimization algorithms aim at finding Pareto-optimal solutions. Recovering Pareto fronts or Pareto sets from a limited number of function evaluations are challenging problems. A popular approach in the case of expensive-to-evaluate functions is to appeal to metamodels. Kriging has been shown efficient as a base for sequential multi-objective optimization, notably through infill sampling criteria balancing exploitation and exploration such as the Expected Hypervolume Improvement. Here we consider Kriging metamodels not only for selecting new points, but as a tool for estimating the whole Pareto front and quantifying how much uncertainty remains on it at any stage of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms. Our approach relies on the Gaussian process interpretation of Kriging, and bases upon conditional simulations. Using concepts from random set theory, we propose to adapt the Vorob’ev expectation and deviation to capture the variability of the set of non-dominated points. Numerical experiments illustrate the potential of the proposed workflow, and it is shown on examples how Gaussian process simulations and the estimated Vorob’ev deviation can be used to monitor the ability of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms to accurately learn the Pareto front.

SOMS: SurrOgate MultiStart algorithm for use with nonlinear programming for global optimization

SOMS is a general surrogate-based multistart algorithm, which is used in combination with any local optimizer to find global optima for computationally expensive functions with multiple local minima. SOMS differs from previous multistart methods in that a surrogate approximation is used by the multistart algorithm to help reduce the number of function evaluations necessary to identify the most promising points from which to start each nonlinear programming local search. SOMS’s numerical results are compared with four well-known methods, namely, Multi-Level Single Linkage (MLSL), MATLAB’s MultiStart, MATLAB’s GlobalSearch, and GLOBAL. In addition, we propose a class of wavy test functions that mimic the wavy nature of objective functions arising in many black-box simulations. Extensive comparisons of algorithms on the wavy testfunctions and on earlier standard global-optimization test functions are done for a total of 19 different test problems. The numerical results indicate that SOMS performs favorably in comparison to alternative methods and does especially well on wavy functions when the number of function evaluations allowed is limited.

Characterization of functioning in multiple sclerosis using the ICF

The objective of this study was to explore whether it is possible to describe based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) relevant aspects of functioning and disability affected in multiple sclerosis (MS) as well as environmental factors relevant to persons with MS. The specific aim was to identify most relevant 'Body functions', 'Body structures', 'Activities and participation', as well as 'Environmental factors' in patients with MS using the ICF. Additionally, different MS forms were compared with respect to the identified problems. A multi-centre study was conducted in an empirical cross-sectional design. Data from 205 individuals with MS were collected in rehabilitation centres: disease related data, socio-demographic data, single interviews based on the Extended ICF Checklist and a patient questionnaire including ratings on general health and functioning status, Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II) and Comorbidity Questionnaire (SCQ). The 129 ICF categories identified represent a comprehensive classification of functioning in MS from the clinical perspective. Differences between MS forms were observed for several ICF categories, EDSS, general health and functioning status, but not for BDI and SCQ. The study showed that it is possible to describe based on the ICF the spectrum in functioning and disability affected in MS as well as environmental factors relevant to persons with MS.

The latency distribution of motor evoked potentials in patients with multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE: To compare the individual latency distributions of motor evoked potentials (MEP) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) to the previously reported results in healthy subjects (Firmin et al., 2011). METHODS: We applied the previously reported method to measure the distribution of MEP latencies to 16 patients with MS. The method is based on transcranial magnetic stimulation and consists of a combination of the triple stimulation technique with a method originally developed to measure conduction velocity distributions in peripheral nerves. RESULTS: MEP latency distributions in MS typically showed two peaks. The individual MEP latency distributions were significantly wider in patients with MS than in healthy subjects. The mean triple stimulation delay extension at the 75% quantile, a proxy for MEP latency distribution width, was 7.3ms in healthy subjects and 10.7ms in patients with MS. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with MS, slow portions of the central motor pathway contribute more to the MEP than in healthy subjects. The bimodal distribution found in healthy subjects is preserved in MS. SIGNIFICANCE: Our method to measure the distribution of MEP latencies is suitable to detect alterations in the relative contribution of corticospinal tract portions with long MEP latencies to motor conduction.

Quantification of central motor conduction deficits in multiple sclerosis patients before and after treatment of acute exacerbation by methylprednisolone

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP) in patients with relapsing-remitting (RR-MS), secondary progressive (SP-MS), and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PP-MS). METHODS: Clinical and neurophysiological follow up was undertaken in 24 RR-MS, eight SP-MS, and nine PP-MS patients receiving Solu-Medrol 500 mg/d over five days for exacerbations involving the motor system. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were used to measure central motor conduction time (CMCT) and the triple stimulation technique (TST) was applied to assess conduction deficits. The TST allows accurate quantification of the number of conducting central motor neurones, expressed by the TST amplitude ratio. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in TST amplitude ratio in RR-MS (p<0.001) and SP-MS patients (p<0.02) at day 5, paralleling an increase in muscle force. TST amplitude ratio and muscle force remained stable at two months. In PP-MS, TST amplitude ratio and muscle force did not change. CMCT did not change significantly in any of the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: In RR-MS and SP-MS, IVMP is followed by a prompt increase in conducting central motor neurones paralleled by improvement in muscle force, which most probably reflects partial resolution of central conduction block. The lack of similar clinical and neurophysiological changes in PP-MS corroborates previous clinical reports on limited IVMP efficacy in this patient group and points to pathophysiological differences underlying exacerbations in PP-MS.

Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: systematic review

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging criteria for the early diagnosis of multiple sclerosis in patients with suspected disease. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: 12 electronic databases, citation searches, and reference lists of included studies. Review methods Studies on accuracy of diagnosis that compared magnetic resonance imaging, or diagnostic criteria incorporating such imaging, to a reference standard for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. RESULTS: 29 studies (18 cohort studies, 11 other designs) were included. On average, studies of other designs (mainly diagnostic case-control studies) produced higher estimated diagnostic odds ratios than did cohort studies. Among 15 studies of higher methodological quality (cohort design, clinical follow-up as reference standard), those with longer follow-up produced higher estimates of specificity and lower estimates of sensitivity. Only two such studies followed patients for more than 10 years. Even in the presence of many lesions (> 10 or > 8), magnetic resonance imaging could not accurately rule multiple sclerosis in (likelihood ratio of a positive test result 3.0 and 2.0, respectively). Similarly, the absence of lesions was of limited utility in ruling out a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (likelihood ratio of a negative test result 0.1 and 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Many evaluations of the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the early detection of multiple sclerosis have produced inflated estimates of test performance owing to methodological weaknesses. Use of magnetic resonance imaging to confirm multiple sclerosis on the basis of a single attack of neurological dysfunction may lead to over-diagnosis and over-treatment.

Alternative protocol to initiate high-frequency oscillatory ventilation: an experimental study

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to study the effects of a novel lung volume optimization procedure (LVOP) using high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV) upon gas exchange, the transpulmonary pressure (TPP), and hemodynamics in a porcine model of surfactant depletion. METHODS: With institutional review board approval, the hemodynamics, blood gas analysis, TPP, and pulmonary shunt fraction were obtained in six anesthetized pigs before and after saline lung lavage. Measurements were acquired during pressure-controlled ventilation (PCV) prior to and after lung damage, and during a LVOP with HFOV. The LVOP comprised a recruitment maneuver with a continuous distending pressure (CDP) of 45 mbar for 2.5 minutes, and a stepwise decrease of the CDP (5 mbar every 5 minute) from 45 to 20 mbar. The TPP level was identified during the decrease in CDP, which assured a change of the PaO2/FIO2 ratio < 25% compared with maximum lung recruitment at CDP of 45 mbar (CDP45). Data are presented as the median (25th-75th percentile); differences between measurements are determined by Friedman repeated-measures analysis on ranks and multiple comparisons (Tukey's test). The level of significance was set at P < 0.05. RESULTS: The PaO2/FiO2 ratio increased from 99.1 (56.2-128) Torr at PCV post-lavage to 621 (619.4-660.3) Torr at CDP45 (CDP45) (P < 0.031). The pulmonary shunt fraction decreased from 51.8% (49-55%) at PCV post-lavage to 1.03% (0.4-3%) at CDP45 (P < 0.05). The cardiac output and stroke volume decreased at CDP45 (P < 0.05) compared with PCV, whereas the heart rate, mean arterial pressure, and intrathoracic blood volume remained unchanged. A TPP of 25.5 (17-32) mbar was required to preserve a difference in PaO2/FIO2 ratio < 25% related to CDP45; this TPP was achieved at a CDP of 35 (25-40) mbar. CONCLUSION: This HFOV protocol is easy to perform, and allows a fast determination of an adequate TPP level that preserves oxygenation. Systemic hemodynamics, as a measure of safety, showed no relevant deterioration throughout the procedure.

Multiple B-cell clones producing antibodies directed to the spacer and disintegrin/thrombospondin type-1 repeat 1 (TSP1) of ADAMTS13 in a patient with acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura

BACKGROUND: The cysteine-rich/spacer domains of ADAMTS13 contain a major binding site for antibodies in patients with acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). OBJECTIVE: To study the heterogeneity of the antibody response towards these domains an immunoglobulin V-gene phage-display library was constructed to isolate monoclonal anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies from the immunoglobulin repertoire of a patient with acquired TTP. METHODS: Combined variable heavy chain (VH) and variable light chain (VL) segments, expressed as single-chain Fv fragments (scFv), were selected for binding to an ADAMTS13 fragment consisting of the disintegrin/thrombospondin type-1 repeat 1 (TSP1)/cysteine-rich/spacer domains. RESULTS: Seven different scFv antibody clones were identified that were assigned to four groups based on their homology to VH germline gene segments. Epitope-mapping revealed that scFv I-9 (VH1-69), I-26 (VH1-02), and I-41 (VH3-09) bind to an overlapping binding site in the ADAMTS13 spacer domain, whereas scFv I-16 (VH3-07) binds to the disintegrin/TSP1 domains. The affinity of scFv for the disintegrin/TSP1/cysteine-rich/spacer domain was determined by surface plasmon resonance analysis and the dissociation constants ranged from 3 to 254 nM. The scFv partially inhibited ADAMTS13 activity. However, full-length IgG prepared from the variable domains of scFv I-9 inhibited ADAMTS13 activity more profoundly. Plasma of six patients with acquired TTP competed for binding of scFv I-9 to ADAMTS13. CONCLUSION: Our data indicate that multiple B-cell clones producing antibodies directed against the spacer domain are present in the patient analyzed in this study. Our findings also suggest that antibodies with a similar epitope specificity as scFv I-9 are present in plasma of other patients with acquired TTP.

Development and simultaneous application of multiple care protocols in critical care: a multicenter feasibility study

OBJECTIVE: To test the feasibility of and interactions among three software-driven critical care protocols. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Intensive care units in six European and American university hospitals. PATIENTS: 174 cardiac surgery and 41 septic patients. INTERVENTIONS: Application of software-driven protocols for cardiovascular management, sedation, and weaning during the first 7 days of intensive care. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: All protocols were used simultaneously in 85% of the cardiac surgery and 44% of the septic patients, and any one of the protocols was used for 73 and 44% of study duration, respectively. Protocol use was discontinued in 12% of patients by the treating clinician and in 6% for technical/administrative reasons. The number of protocol steps per unit of time was similar in the two diagnostic groups (n.s. for all protocols). Initial hemodynamic stability (a protocol target) was achieved in 26+/-18 min (mean+/-SD) in cardiac surgery and in 24+/-18 min in septic patients. Sedation targets were reached in 2.4+/-0.2h in cardiac surgery and in 3.6 +/-0.2h in septic patients. Weaning protocol was started in 164 (94%; 154 extubated) cardiac surgery and in 25 (60%; 9 extubated) septic patients. The median (interquartile range) time from starting weaning to extubation (a protocol target) was 89 min (range 44-154 min) for the cardiac surgery patients and 96 min (range 56-205 min) for the septic patients. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple software-driven treatment protocols can be simultaneously applied with high acceptance and rapid achievement of primary treatment goals. Time to reach these primary goals may provide a performance indicator.

[Role of coronary artery bypass grafting in the treatment of coronary artery disease - a well-balanced information of the patients and objective decision making are welcome]

Most recently discussion about the optimal treatment for different subsets of patients suffering from coronary artery disease has re-emerged, mainly because of the uncertainty caused by doctors and patients regarding the phenomenon of unpredictable early and late stent thrombosis. Surgical revascularization using multiple arterial bypass grafts has repeatedly proven its superiority compared to percutaneous intervention techniques, especially in patients suffering from left main stem disease and coronary 3-vessels disease. Several prospective randomized multicenter studies comparing early and mid-term results following PCI and CABG have been really restrictive, with respect to patient enrollment, with less than 5% of all patients treated during the same time period been enrolled. Coronary artery bypass grafting allows the most complete revascularization in one session, because all target coronary vessels larger than 1 mm can be bypassed in their distal segments. Once the patient has been turn-off for surgery, surgeons have to consider the most complete arterial revascularization in order to decrease the long-term necessity for re-revascularization; for instance patency rate of the left internal thoracic artery grafted to the distal part left anterior descending artery may be as high as 90-95% after 10 to 15 years. Early mortality following isolated CABG operation has been as low as 0.6 to 1% in the most recent period (reports from the University Hospital Berne and the University Hospital of Zurich); beside these excellent results, the CABG option seems to be less expensive than PCI with time, since the necessity for additional PCI is rather high following initial PCI, and the price of stent devices is still very high, particularly in Switzerland. Patients, insurance and experts in health care should be better and more honestly informed concerning the risk and costs of PCI and CABG procedures as well as about the much higher rate of subsequent interventions following PCI. Team approach for all patients in whom both options could be offered seems mandatory to avoid unbalanced information of the patients. Looking at the recent developments in transcatheter valve treatments, the revival of cardiological-cardiosurgical conferences seems to a good option to optimize the cooperation between the two medical specialties: cardiology and cardiac surgery.

The moderating role of personal mastery on the relationship between caregiving status and multiple dimensions of fatigue

OBJECTIVE: A substantial proportion of chronically-stressed spousal dementia caregivers report fatigue. The objective of this study was to examine whether personal mastery moderates the relationship between caregiving status (caregiver/non-caregiver) and multiple dimensions of fatigue. METHODS: Seventy-three elderly Alzheimer's caregivers and 41 elderly non-caregivers completed the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory-Short Form (MFSI-SF) and questionnaires assessing mastery. RESULTS: Regression analyses indicated that global fatigue was significantly higher for caregivers (M = 38.0 +/- 21.0) compared to non-caregivers (M = 18.2 +/- 10.4). However, personal mastery moderated the relation between caregiving status and global fatigue (t = -2.03, df = 107, p = 0.045), such that for those with low mastery, caregivers' fatigue scores were 18.1 points higher than non-caregivers, and for those with high mastery, this difference was only 7.5 points. For specific dimensions of fatigue, mastery moderated the relations between caregiving status and both emotional (t = -2.01, df = 107, p = 0.047) and physical (t = -2.51, df = 107, p = 0.014) fatigue. Specifically, association between caregiving status and emotional fatigue was greater when mastery was low than when mastery was high. Caregiving status was significantly associated with physical fatigue when mastery was low, but not when mastery was high. Significant main effects were found between mastery and general fatigue and vigor. CONCLUSION: Given the proportion of fatigued caregivers and the impact fatigue has on health; these findings provide important information regarding mastery's relationship with fatigue and may inform interventions aiming to alleviate fatigue in caregivers. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley ; Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic Optimization of SLA-Based Services Scaling Rules

Current advanced cloud infrastructure management solutions allow scheduling actions for dynamically changing the number of running virtual machines (VMs). This approach, however, does not guarantee that the scheduled number of VMs will properly handle the actual user generated workload, especially if the user utilization patterns will change. We propose using a dynamically generated scaling model for the VMs containing the services of the distributed applications, which is able to react to the variations in the number of application users. We answer the following question: How to dynamically decide how many services of each type are needed in order to handle a larger workload within the same time constraints? We describe a mechanism for dynamically composing the SLAs for controlling the scaling of distributed services by combining data analysis mechanisms with application benchmarking using multiple VM configurations. Based on processing of multiple application benchmarks generated data sets we discover a set of service monitoring metrics able to predict critical Service Level Agreement (SLA) parameters. By combining this set of predictor metrics with a heuristic for selecting the appropriate scaling-out paths for the services of distributed applications, we show how SLA scaling rules can be inferred and then used for controlling the runtime scale-in and scale-out of distributed services. We validate our architecture and models by performing scaling experiments with a distributed application representative for the enterprise class of information systems. We show how dynamically generated SLAs can be successfully used for controlling the management of distributed services scaling.