Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Sharing decisions in breast cancer care: Development of the Decision Analysis System for Oncology (DAS-O) to identify shared decision making during treatment consultations

Shared Decision Making (SDM) is widely accepted as the preferred method for reaching treatment decisions in the oncology setting including those about clinical trial participation: however, there is some disagreement between researchers over the components of SDM. Specific standardized coding systems are needed to help overcome this difficulty.

Strategies for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease: results of a decision analysis

Nearly 70% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) undergo surgical resection, with one-quarter subsequently developing clinical recurrence within 12 months. Several options exist for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in CD, but the comparative cost effectiveness of these competing strategies has not been previously analyzed.

Usefulness of preemptive anticoagulation in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism: a decision analysis

The diagnostic workup of pulmonary embolism (PE) may take several hours. The usefulness of anticoagulant treatment while awaiting the results of diagnostic tests has not been assessed. The objective of this study was to compare the risks and benefits of bid low-molecular-weight heparin vs no treatment in patients with suspected PE.

All-ceramic or metal-ceramic tooth-supported fixed dental prostheses (FDPs)? A systematic review of the survival and complication rates. Part II: Multiple-unit FDPs.

OBJECTIVE To assess the 5-year survival of metal-ceramic and all-ceramic tooth-supported fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) and to describe the incidence of biological, technical and esthetic complications. METHODS Medline (PubMed), Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) searches (2006-2013) were performed for clinical studies focusing on tooth-supported FDPs with a mean follow-up of at least 3 years. This was complemented by an additional hand search and the inclusion of 10 studies from a previous systematic review [1]. Survival and complication rates were analyzed using robust Poisson's regression models to obtain summary estimates of 5-year proportions. RESULTS Forty studies reporting on 1796 metal-ceramic and 1110 all-ceramic FDPs fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of the included studies indicated an estimated 5-year survival rate of metal-ceramic FDPs of 94.4% (95% CI: 91.2-96.5%). The estimated survival rate of reinforced glass ceramic FDPs was 89.1% (95% CI: 80.4-94.0%), the survival rate of glass-infiltrated alumina FDPs was 86.2% (95% CI: 69.3-94.2%) and the survival rate of densely sintered zirconia FDPs was 90.4% (95% CI: 84.8-94.0%) in 5 years of function. Even though the survival rate of all-ceramic FDPs was lower than for metal-ceramic FDPs, the differences did not reach statistical significance except for the glass-infiltrated alumina FDPs (p=0.05). A significantly higher incidence of caries in abutment teeth was observed for densely sintered zirconia FDPs compared to metal-ceramic FDPs. Significantly more framework fractures were reported for reinforced glass ceramic FDPs (8.0%) and glass-infiltrated alumina FDPs (12.9%) compared to metal-ceramic FDPs (0.6%) and densely sintered zirconia FDPs (1.9%) in 5 years in function. However, the incidence of ceramic fractures and loss of retention was significantly (p=0.018 and 0.028 respectively) higher for densely sintered zirconia FDPs compared to all other types of FDPs. CONCLUSIONS Survival rates of all types of all-ceramic FDPs were lower than those reported for metal-ceramic FDPs. The incidence of framework fractures was significantly higher for reinforced glass ceramic FDPs and infiltrated glass ceramic FDPs, and the incidence for ceramic fractures and loss of retention was significantly higher for densely sintered zirconia FDPs compared to metal-ceramic FDPs.

Analysis of the erosive effect of different dietary substances and medications

Excessive consumption of acidic drinks and foods contributes to tooth erosion. The aims of the present in vitro study were twofold: (1) to assess the erosive potential of different dietary substances and medications; (2) to determine the chemical properties with an impact on the erosive potential. We selected sixty agents: soft drinks, an energy drink, sports drinks, alcoholic drinks, juice, fruit, mineral water, yogurt, tea, coffee, salad dressing and medications. The erosive potential of the tested agents was quantified as the changes in surface hardness (ΔSH) of enamel specimens within the first 2 min (ΔSH2-0 = SH2 min - SHbaseline) and the second 2 min exposure (ΔSH4-2 = SH4 min - SH2 min). To characterise these agents, various chemical properties, e.g. pH, concentrations of Ca, Pi and F, titratable acidity to pH 7·0 and buffering capacity at the original pH value (β), as well as degree of saturation (pK - pI) with respect to hydroxyapatite (HAP) and fluorapatite (FAP), were determined. Erosive challenge caused a statistically significant reduction in SH for all agents except for coffee, some medications and alcoholic drinks, and non-flavoured mineral waters, teas and yogurts (P < 0·01). By multiple linear regression analysis, 52 % of the variation in ΔSH after 2 min and 61 % after 4 min immersion were explained by pH, β and concentrations of F and Ca (P < 0·05). pH was the variable with the highest impact in multiple regression and bivariate correlation analyses. Furthermore, a high bivariate correlation was also obtained between (pK - pI)HAP, (pK - pI)FAP and ΔSH.

Nerve-sparing open radical retropubic prostatectomy

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, the surgical technique for open radical prostatectomy has evolved and increasing attention is paid to preserving anatomic structures and the impact on outcome and quality of life. METHODS: Technical aspects of nerve-sparing open radical retropubic prostatectomy (RRP) are described. Patient selection criteria and functional results are discussed, focusing on postoperative urinary continence. RESULTS: The video demonstrates the nerve-sparing open RRP and important steps are elucidated with schematic drawings. The value of nerve sparing, not only for preserving erectile function, but also for preserving urinary continence is discussed and results from our institution are presented. In our series, urinary incontinence was present in 1 of 71 patients (1%) with attempted bilateral nerve-sparing, 11 of 322 (3%) with attempted unilateral nerve-sparing, or 19 of 139 (14%) without attempted nerve-sparing surgery. In multiple logistic regression analysis, the only statistically significant factor influencing urinary continence after open RRP was attempted nerve sparing (odds ratio, 4.77; 95% confidence interval, 2.18-10.44; p=0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Nerve-sparing surgery has a significant impact on erectile function and urinary continence and should be performed in all patients provided radical tumour resection is not compromised. For successful nerve preservation we advocate a lateral approach to the prostate to improve visualisation and simplify separation of the neurovascular bundles from the dorsolateral prostatic capsule. Bunching, ligating, and incising Santorini's plexus over the prostate and not over the sphincter ensures a bloodless surgical field. Mucosa-to-mucosa adaptation of the reconstructed bladder neck and the urethra is another important factor to be observed.

Graft coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplantation--evaluation of risk factors by multivariate analysis

The development of coronary vasculopathy is the main determinant of long-term survival in cardiac transplantation. The identification of risk factors, therefore, seems necessary in order to identify possible treatment strategies. Ninety-five out of 397 patients, undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplantation from 10/1985 to 10/1992 were evaluated retrospectively on the basis of perioperative and postoperative variables including age, sex, diagnosis, previous operations, renal function, cholesterol levels, dosage of immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporin A, azathioprine, steroids), incidence of rejection, treatment with calcium channel blockers at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months postoperatively. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed by annual angiography at 1 and 2 years postoperatively. After univariate analysis, data were evaluated by stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed in 15 patients at 1 (16%), and in 23 patients (24%) at 2, years. On multivariate analysis, previous operations and the incidence of rejections were identified as significant risk factors (P < 0.05), whereas the underlying diagnosis had borderline significance (P = 0.058) for the development of graft coronary vasculopathy. In contrast, all other variables were not significant in our subset of patients investigated. We therefore conclude that the development of coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplant patients mainly depends on the rejection process itself, aside from patient-dependent factors. Therapeutic measures, such as the administration of calcium channel blockers and regulation of lipid disorders, may therefore only reduce the progress of native atherosclerotic disease in the posttransplant setting.

Prevalence of burnout among surgical residents and surgeons in Switzerland

Burnout is a pathologic reaction in response to long-term work-related stress. The aim of this study was 2-fold: first, to assess the prevalence and degree of burnout among surgical residents and surgeons in Switzerland and, second, to identify predictors of burnout in the surgical community. Four hundred five of 618 anonymous questionnaires (65.5%) were returned. Among respondents, 3.7% and 35.1% showed high and moderate degrees of burnout, respectively. Respondents with high and moderate degrees of burnout had higher summary scores of perceived stress (P < .001). In multiple logistic regression analysis, the strongest predictors of burnout were poor interaction with nurses, disturbances due to telephone consultations, and high overall workload. To reduce burnout, new work models should be sought, in addition to decreasing work intensity and workload rather than restricting work hours alone.

Comparison of pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and atrial remodeling in marathon versus non-marathon runners

Long-term endurance sports are associated with atrial remodeling and an increased risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter. Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (pro-ANP) is a marker of atrial wall tension and elevated in patients with AF. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that atrial remodeling would be perpetuated by repetitive episodes of atrial stretching during strenuous competitions, reflected by elevated levels of pro-ANP. A cross-sectional study was performed on nonelite runners scheduled to participate in the 2010 Grand Prix of Bern, a 10-mile race. Four hundred ninety-two marathon and nonmarathon runners applied for participation, 70 were randomly selected, and 56 entered the final analysis. Subjects were stratified according to former marathon participations: a control group (nonmarathon runners, n = 22), group 1 (1 to 4 marathons, n = 16), and group 2 (≥5 marathons, n = 18). Results were adjusted for age, training years, and average weekly endurance training hours. The mean age was 42 ± 7 years. Compared to the control group, marathon runners in groups 1 and 2 had larger left atria (25 ± 6 vs 30 ± 6 vs 34 ± 7 ml/m(2), p = 0.002) and larger right atria (27 ± 7 vs 31 ± 8 vs 35 ± 5 ml/m(2), p = 0.024). Pro-ANP levels at baseline were higher in marathon runners (1.04 ± 0.38 vs 1.42 ± 0.74 vs 1.67 ± 0.69 nmol/L, p = 0.006). Pro-ANP increased significantly in all groups after the race. In multiple linear regression analysis, marathon participation was an independent predictor of left atrial (β = 0.427, p <0.001) and right atrial (β = 0.395, p = 0.006) remodeling. In conclusion, marathon running was associated with progressive left and right atrial remodeling, possibly induced by repetitive episodes of atrial stretching. The altered left and right atrial substrate may facilitate atrial arrhythmias.

Long-term cardiac remodeling and arrhythmias in nonelite marathon runners

Long-term endurance sports are associated with atrial remodeling and atrial arrhythmias. More importantly, high-level endurance training may promote right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and complex ventricular arrhythmias. We investigated the long-term consequences of marathon running on cardiac remodeling as a potential substrate for arrhythmias with a focus on the right heart. We invited runners of the 2010 Grand Prix of Bern, a 10-mile race. Of 873 marathon and nonmarathon runners who applied, 122 (61 women) entered the final analysis. Subjects were stratified according to former marathon participations: control group (nonmarathon runners, n = 34), group 1 (1 marathon to 5 marathons, mean 2.7, n = 46), and group 2 (≥6 marathons, mean 12.8, n = 42). Mean age was 42 ± 7 years. Results were adjusted for gender, age, and lifetime training hours. Right and left atrial sizes increased with marathon participations. In group 2, right and left atrial enlargements were present in 60% and 74% of athletes, respectively. RV and left ventricular (LV) dimensions showed no differences among groups, and RV or LV dilatation was present in only 2.4% or 4.3% of marathon runners, respectively. In multiple linear regression analysis, marathon participation was an independent predictor of right and left atrial sizes but had no effect on RV and LV dimensions and function. Atrial and ventricular ectopic complexes during 24-hour Holter monitoring were low and equally distributed among groups. In conclusion, in nonelite athletes, marathon running was not associated with RV enlargement, dysfunction, or ventricular ectopy. Marathon running promoted biatrial remodeling.

Nerve sparing open radical retropubic prostatectomy--does it have an impact on urinary continence?

PURPOSE: We prospectively assessed the role of nerve sparing surgery on urinary continence after open radical retropubic prostatectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated a consecutive series of 536 patients who underwent open radical retropubic prostatectomy with attempted bilateral, unilateral or no nerve sparing, as defined by the surgeon, without prior radiotherapy at a minimum followup of 1 year with documented assessment of urinary continence status. Because outlet obstruction may influence continence rates, its incidence and management was also evaluated. RESULTS: One year after surgery 505 of 536 patients (94.2%) were continent, 27 (5%) had grade I stress incontinence and 4 (0.8%) had grade II stress incontinence. Incontinence was found in 1 of 75 (1.3%), 11 of 322 (3.4%) and 19 of 139 patients (13.7%) with attempted bilateral, attempted unilateral and without attempted nerve sparing, respectively. The proportional differences were highly significant, favoring a nerve sparing technique (p <0.0001). On multiple logistic regression analysis attempted nerve sparing was the only statistically significant factor influencing urinary continence after open radical retropubic prostatectomy (OR 4.77, 95% CI 2.18 to 10.44, p = 0.0001). Outlet obstruction at the anastomotic site in 33 of the 536 men (6.2%) developed at a median of 8 weeks (IQR 4 to 12) and was managed by dilation or an endoscopic procedure. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of incontinence after open radical retropubic prostatectomy is low and continence is highly associated with a nerve sparing technique. Therefore, nerve sparing should be attempted in all patients if the principles of oncological surgery are not compromised.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetic testing to predict treatment response to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of testing patients with nephropathies for the I/D polymorphism before starting angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor therapy, using a 3-year time horizon and a healthcare perspective. METHODS: We used a combination of a decision analysis and Markov modeling technique to evaluate the potential economic value of this pharmacogenetic test by preventing unfavorable treatment in patients with nephropathies. The estimation of the predictive value of the I/D polymorphism is based on a systematic review showing that DD carriers tend to respond well to ACE inhibitors, while II carriers seem not to benefit adequately from this treatment. Data on the ACE inhibitor effectiveness in nephropathy were derived from the REIN (Ramipril Efficacy in Nephropathy) trial. We calculated the number of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) prevented and the differences in the incremental costs and incremental effect expressed as life-years free of ESRD. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Compared with unselective treatment, testing patients for their ACE genotype could save 12 patients per 1000 from developing ESRD during the 3 years covered by the model. As the mean net cost savings was euro 356,000 per 1000 patient-years, and 9 life-years free of ESRD were gained, selective treatment seems to be dominant. CONCLUSION: The study suggests that genetic testing of the I/D polymorphism in patients with nephropathy before initiating ACE therapy will most likely be cost-effective, even if the risk for II carriers to develop ESRD when treated with ACE inhibitors is only 1.4% higher than for DD carriers. Further studies, however, are required to corroborate the difference in treatment response between ACE genotypes, before genetic testing can be justified in clinical practice.

Determinants of reduced walking speed in people with musculoskeletal pain

OBJECTIVE: Maintenance of good walking speed is essential to independent living. People with musculoskeletal disease often have reduced walking speed. We investigated determinants of slower walking, other than musculoskeletal disease, that might provide valuable additional targets for therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Somerset and Avon Survey of Health, a community based survey of people aged over 35 years. A total of 2703 participants who reported hip or knee pain at baseline (1994/1995) were studied, and reassessed in 2002-2003; 1696 were available for followup, and walking speed was tested in 1074. Walking speed (m/s) was used as outcome measure. Baseline characteristics, including comorbidities and socioeconomic factors, were tested for their ability to predict reduced walking speed using multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Age, female sex, and immobility at baseline were predictive of slower walking speed. Other independent risk factors included the presence of cataract, low socioeconomic status, intermittent claudication, and other cardiovascular conditions. Having a cataract was associated with a decrease of 0.10 m/s (95% CI 0.03, 0.16). Those in social class V had a walking speed 0.22 m/s (95% CI 0.126, 0.31) slower than those in social class I. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities, age, female sex, and lower socioeconomic position determine walking speed in people with joint pain. Issues such as poor vision and social-economic disadvantage may add to the effect of musculoskeletal disease, suggesting the need for a holistic approach to management of these patients.