Chances and limits of method restriction: a detailed analysis of suicide methods in Switzerland

The objective of this study was to estimate the potential of method restriction as a public health strategy in suicide prevention. Data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and the Swiss Institutes of Forensic Medicine from 2004 were gathered and categorized into suicide submethods according to accessibility to restriction of means. Of suicides in Switzerland, 39.2% are accessible to method restriction. The highest proportions were found in private weapons (13.2%), army weapons (10.4%), and jumps from hot-spots (4.6%). The presented method permits the estimation of the suicide prevention potential of a country by method restriction and the comparison of restriction potentials between suicide methods. In Switzerland, reduction of firearm suicides has the highest potential to reduce the total number of suicides.

Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Neotethys closure history of Anatolia: insights from 40Ar–39Ar geochronology and P–T estimation in high pressure metasedimentary rocks

The multiple high-pressure (HP), low-temperature (LT) metamorphic units of Western and Central Anatolia offer a great opportunity to investigate the subduction- and continental accretion-related evolution of the eastern limb of the long-lived Aegean subduction system. Recent reports of the HP–LT index mineral Fe-Mg-carpholite in three metasedimentary units of the Gondwana-derived Anatolide–Tauride continental block (namely the Afyon Zone, the Ören Unit and the southern Menderes Massif) suggest a more complicated scenario than the single-continental accretion model generally put forward in previous studies. This study presents the first isotopic dates (white mica 40Ar–39Ar geochronology), and where possible are combined with P–T estimates (chlorite thermometry, phengite barometry, multi-equilibrium thermobarometry), on carpholite-bearing rocks from these three HP–LT metasedimentary units. It is shown that, in the Afyon Zone, carpholite-bearing assemblages were retrogressed through greenschist-facies conditions at c. 67–62 Ma. Early retrograde stages in the Ören Unit are dated to 63–59 Ma. In the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit (HP Mesozoic cover of the southern Menderes Massif), HP retrograde stages are dated to c. 45 Ma, and post-collisional cooling to c. 26 Ma. These new results support that the Ören Unit represents the westernmost continuation of the Afyon Zone, whereas the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit correlates with the Cycladic Blueschist Unit of the Aegean Domain. In Western Anatolia, three successive HP–LT metamorphic belts thus formed: the northernmost Tavşanlı Zone (c. 88–82 Ma), the Ören–Afyon Zone (between 70 and 65 Ma), and the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit (c. 52–45 Ma). The southward younging trend of the HP–LT metamorphism from the upper and internal to the deeper and more external structural units, as in the Aegean Domain, points to the persistence of subduction in Western Anatolia between 93–90 and c. 35 Ma. After the accretion of the Menderes–Tauride terrane, in Eocene times, subduction stopped, leading to continental collision and associated Barrovian-type metamorphism. Because, by contrast, the Aegean subduction did remain active due to slab roll-back and trench migration, the eastern limb (below Southwestern Anatolia) of the Hellenic slab was dramatically curved and consequently teared. It therefore is suggested that the possibility for subduction to continue after the accretion of buoyant (e.g. continental) terranes probably depends much on palaeogeography.

Effects of expectation and caffeine on arousal, well-being, and reaction time

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of expectation associated with placebo and caffeine ingestion. We used a three-armed, randomized, double-blind design. Two three-armed experiments varying instruction (true, false, control) investigated the role of expectations of changes in arousal (blood pressure, heart rate), subjective well-being, and reaction time (RT). In Experiment 1 (N = 45), decaffeinated coffee was administered, and expectations were produced in one group by making them believe they had ingested caffeinated coffee. In Experiment 2 (N = 45), caffeinated orange juice was given in both experimental groups, but only one was informed about the true content. In Experiment 1, a significant effect for subjective alertness was found in the placebo treatment compared to the control group. However, for RT and well-being no significant effects were found. In Experiment 2, no significant expectancy effects were found. Caffeine produced large effects for blood pressure in both treatments compared to the control group, but the effects were larger for the false information group. For subjective well-being (alertness, calmness), considerable but nonsignificant changes were found for correctly informed participants, indicating possible additivity of pharmacologic effect and expectations. The results tentatively indicate that placebo and expectancy effects primarily show through introspection.

Establishment of murine cell lines by constitutive and conditional immortalization

Mouse cell lines were immortalized by introduction of specific immortalizing genes. Embryonic and adult animals and an embryonal stem cell line were used as a source of primary cells. The immortalizing genes were either introduced by DNA transfection or by ecotropic retrovirus transduction. Fibroblasts were obtained by expression of SV40 virus large T antigen (TAg). The properties of the resulting fibroblast cell lines were reproducible, independent of the donor mouse strains employed and the cells showed no transformed properties in vitro and did not form tumors in vivo. Endothelial cell lines were generated by Polyoma virus middle T antigen expression in primary embryonal cells. These cell lines consistently expressed relevant endothelial cell surface markers. Since the expression of the immortalizing genes was expected to strongly influence the cellular characteristics fibroblastoid cells were reversibly immortalized by using a vector that allows conditional expression of the TAg. Under inducing conditions, these cells exhibited properties that were highly similar to the properties of constitutively immortalized cells. In the absence of TAg expression, cell proliferation stops. Cell growth is resumed when TAg expression is restored. Gene expression profiling indicates that TAg influences the expression levels of more than 1000 genes that are involved in diverse cellular processes. The data show that conditionally immortalized cell lines have several advantageous properties over constitutively immortalized cells.

Surveillance of bovine tuberculosis and risk estimation of a future reservoir formation in wildlife in Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by Mycobacterium bovis or M. caprae has recently (re-) emerged in livestock and wildlife in all countries bordering Switzerland (CH) and the Principality of Liechtenstein (FL). Comprehensive data for Swiss and Liechtenstein wildlife are not available so far, although two native species, wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus elaphus), act as bTB reservoirs elsewhere in continental Europe. Our aims were (1) to assess the occurrence of bTB in these wild ungulates in CH/FL and to reinforce scanning surveillance in all wild mammals; (2) to evaluate the risk of a future bTB reservoir formation in wild boar and red deer in CH/FL. Tissue samples collected from 2009 to 2011 from 434 hunted red deer and wild boar and from eight diseased ungulates with tuberculosis-like lesions were tested by direct real-time PCR and culture to detect mycobacteria of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Identification of suspicious colonies was attempted by real-time PCR, genotyping and spoligotyping. Information on risk factors for bTB maintenance within wildlife populations was retrieved from the literature and the situation regarding identified factors was assessed for our study areas. Mycobacteria of the MTBC were detected in six out of 165 wild boar (3.6%; 95% CI: 1.4-7.8) but none of the 269 red deer (0%; 0-1.4). M. microti was identified in two MTBC-positive wild boar, while species identification remained unsuccessful in four cases. Main risk factors for bTB maintenance worldwide, including different causes of aggregation often resulting from intensive wildlife management, are largely absent in CH and FL. In conclusion, M. bovis and M. caprae were not detected but we report for the first time MTBC mycobacteria in Swiss wild boar. Present conditions seem unfavorable for a reservoir emergence, nevertheless increasing population numbers of wild ungulates and offal consumption may represent a risk.

Anisotropic diffusion at the field scale in a 4-year multi-tracer diffusion and retention experiment – I: Insights from the experimental data

Abstract Claystones are considered worldwide as barrier materials for nuclear waste repositories. In the Mont Terri underground research laboratory (URL), a nearly 4-year diffusion and retention (DR) experiment has been performed in Opalinus Clay. It aimed at (1) obtaining data at larger space and time scales than in laboratory experiments and (2) under relevant in situ conditions with respect to pore water chemistry and mechanical stress, (3) quantifying the anisotropy of in situ diffusion, and (4) exploring possible effects of a borehole-disturbed zone. The experiment included two tracer injection intervals in a borehole perpendicular to bedding, through which traced artificial pore water (APW) was circulated, and a pressure monitoring interval. The APW was spiked with neutral tracers (HTO, HDO, H2O-18), anions (Br, I, SeO4), and cations (Na-22, Ba-133, Sr-85, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152, stable Cs, and stable Eu). Most tracers were added at the beginning, some were added at a later stage. The hydraulic pressure in the injection intervals was adjusted according to the measured value in the pressure monitoring interval to ensure transport by diffusion only. Concentration time-series in the APW within the borehole intervals were obtained, as well as 2D concentration distributions in the rock at the end of the experiment after overcoring and subsampling which resulted in �250 samples and �1300 analyses. As expected, HTO diffused the furthest into the rock, followed by the anions (Br, I, SeO4) and by the cationic sorbing tracers (Na-22, Ba-133, Cs, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152). The diffusion of SeO4 was slower than that of Br or I, approximately proportional to the ratio of their diffusion coefficients in water. Ba-133 diffused only into �0.1 m during the �4 a. Stable Cs, added at a higher concentration than Cs-137, diffused further into the rock than Cs-137, consistent with a non-linear sorption behavior. The rock properties (e.g., water contents) were rather homogeneous at the centimeter scale, with no evidence of a borehole-disturbed zone. In situ anisotropy ratios for diffusion, derived for the first time directly from field data, are larger for HTO and Na-22 (�5) than for anions (�3�4 for Br and I). The lower ionic strength of the pore water at this location (�0.22 M) as compared to locations of earlier experiments in the Mont Terri URL (�0.39 M) had no notable effect on the anion accessible pore fraction for Cl, Br, and I: the value of 0.55 is within the range of earlier data. Detailed transport simulations involving different codes will be presented in a companion paper.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.