Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Applying the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process in digital marketing

The fuzzy analytical network process (FANP) is introduced as a potential multi-criteria-decision-making (MCDM) method to improve digital marketing management endeavors. Today’s information overload makes digital marketing optimization, which is needed to continuously improve one’s business, increasingly difficult. The proposed FANP framework is a method for enhancing the interaction between customers and marketers (i.e., involved stakeholders) and thus for reducing the challenges of big data. The presented implementation takes realities’ fuzziness into account to manage the constant interaction and continuous development of communication between marketers and customers on the Web. Using this FANP framework, the marketers are able to increasingly meet the varying requirements of their customers. To improve the understanding of the implementation, advanced visualization methods (e.g., wireframes) are used.

Guidelines for WB3 Part III: Stakeholder workshop 2: Selection and decision on prevention and mitigation strategies to be implemented

These guidelines were developed in the context of working block 3 of the DESIRE project. They address the facilitators in the 18 DESIRE study sites and support them in conducting stakeholder workshops aiming at the selection and decision on mitigation strategies to be implemented in the study site context. The decision-making process is supported by a multi-objective decision support system (MODSS) Software called 'Facilitator'.

Code-specific learning rules improve action selection by populations of spiking neurons

Population coding is widely regarded as a key mechanism for achieving reliable behavioral decisions. We previously introduced reinforcement learning for population-based decision making by spiking neurons. Here we generalize population reinforcement learning to spike-based plasticity rules that take account of the postsynaptic neural code. We consider spike/no-spike, spike count and spike latency codes. The multi-valued and continuous-valued features in the postsynaptic code allow for a generalization of binary decision making to multi-valued decision making and continuous-valued action selection. We show that code-specific learning rules speed up learning both for the discrete classification and the continuous regression tasks. The suggested learning rules also speed up with increasing population size as opposed to standard reinforcement learning rules. Continuous action selection is further shown to explain realistic learning speeds in the Morris water maze. Finally, we introduce the concept of action perturbation as opposed to the classical weight- or node-perturbation as an exploration mechanism underlying reinforcement learning. Exploration in the action space greatly increases the speed of learning as compared to exploration in the neuron or weight space.

Evaluation of Video Transmission Energy Consumption and Quality

The widespread use of wireless enabled devices and the increasing capabilities of wireless technologies has promoted multimedia content access and sharing among users. However, the quality perceived by the users still depends on multiple factors such as video characteristics, device capabilities, and link quality. While video characteristics include the video time and spatial complexity as well as the coding complexity, one of the most important device characteristics is the battery lifetime. There is the need to assess how these aspects interact and how they impact the overall user satisfaction. This paper advances previous works by proposing and validating a flexible framework, named EViTEQ, to be applied in real testbeds to satisfy the requirements of performance assessment. EViTEQ is able to measure network interface energy consumption with high precision, while being completely technology independent and assessing the application level quality of experience. The results obtained in the testbed show the relevance of combined multi-criteria measurement approaches, leading to superior end-user satisfaction perception evaluation .

The radiographic assessment of implant patients: decision-making criteria

Indications for the most frequently used imaging modalities in implant dentistry are proposed based on clinical need and biologic risk for the patient. To calculate the biologic risk, the authors carried out dose measurements. They demonstrated that the risk from a periapical radiograph is 20% of that from a panoramic radiograph. A panoramic radiograph and a series of 4 conventional tomographs of a single-tooth gap in the molar region carry 5% and 13% of the risk from computed tomography of the maxilla, respectively. Panoramic radiography is considered the standard radiographic examination for treatment planning of implant patients, because it imparts a low dose while giving the best radiographic survey. Periapical radiographs are used to elucidate details or to complete the findings obtained from the panoramic radiograph. Other radiographic methods, such as conventional film tomography or computed tomography, are applied only in special circumstances, film tomography being preferred for smaller regions of interest and computed tomography being justified for the complete maxilla or mandible when methods for dose reduction are followed. During follow-up, intraoral radiography is considered the standard radiographic examination, particularly for implants in the anterior region of the maxilla or for scientific studies. In patients requiring more than 5 periapical images, panoramic radiography is preferred.

Variability in the prevalence of adult ADHD in treatment seeking substance use disorder patients: results from an international multi-center study exploring DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria

Background: Available studies vary in their estimated prevalence of attention deficit/hyperactivity disor-der (ADHD) in substance use disorder (SUD) patients, ranging from 2 to 83%. A better understanding ofthe possible reasons for this variability and the effect of the change from DSM-IV to DSM-5 is needed.Methods: A two stage international multi-center, cross-sectional study in 10 countries, among patientsform inpatient and outpatient addiction treatment centers for alcohol and/or drug use disorder patients. Atotal of 3558 treatment seeking SUD patients were screened for adult ADHD. A subsample of 1276 subjects,both screen positive and screen negative patients, participated in a structured diagnostic interview. 5AdultsResults: Prevalence of DSM-IV and DSM-5 adult ADHD varied for DSM-IV from 5.4% (CI 95%: 2.4–8.3) forHungary to 31.3% (CI 95%:25.2–37.5) for Norway and for DSM-5 from 7.6% (CI 95%: 4.1–11.1) for Hungary to32.6% (CI 95%: 26.4–38.8) for Norway. Using the same assessment procedures in all countries and centersresulted in substantial reduction of the variability in the prevalence of adult ADHD reported in previousstudies among SUD patients (2–83% → 5.4–31.3%). The remaining variability was partly explained byprimary substance of abuse and by country (Nordic versus non-Nordic countries). Prevalence estimatesfor DSM-5 were slightly higher than for DSM-IV.Conclusions: Given the generally high prevalence of adult ADHD, all treatment seeking SUD patientsshould be screened and, after a confirmed diagnosis, treated for ADHD since the literature indicates poorprognoses of SUD in treatment seeking SUD patients with ADHD.

Virtual implant planning in the edentulous maxilla: criteria for decision making of prosthesis design

OBJECTIVES To evaluate prosthetic parameters in the edentulous anterior maxilla for decision making between fixed and removable implant prosthesis using virtual planning software. MATERIAL AND METHODS CT- or DVT-scans of 43 patients (mean age 62 ± 8 years) with an edentulous maxilla were analyzed with the NobelGuide software. Implants (≥3.5 mm diameter, ≥10 mm length) were virtually placed in the optimal three-dimensional prosthetic position of all maxillary front teeth. Anatomical and prosthetic landmarks, including the cervical crown point (C-Point), the acrylic flange border (F-Point), and the implant-platform buccal-end (I-Point) were defined in each middle section to determine four measuring parameters: (1) acrylic flange height (FLHeight), (2) mucosal coverage (MucCov), (3) crown-Implant distance (CID) and (4) buccal prosthesis profile (ProsthProfile). Based on these parameters, all patients were assigned to one of three classes: (A) MucCov ≤ 0 mm and ProsthProfile≥45(0) allowing for fixed prosthesis, (B) MucCov = 0-5 mm and/or ProsthProfile = 30(0) -45(0) probably allowing for fixed prosthesis, and (C) MucCov ≥ 5 mm and/or ProsthProfile ≤ 30(0) where removable prosthesis is favorable. Statistical analyses included descriptive methods and non-parametric tests. RESULTS Mean values were for FLHeight 10.0 mm, MucCov 5.6 mm, CID 7.4 mm, and ProsthProfile 39.1(0) . Seventy percent of patients fulfilled class C criteria (removable), 21% class B (probably fixed), and 2% class A (fixed), while in 7% (three patients) bone volume was insufficient for implant planning. CONCLUSIONS The proposed classification and virtual planning procedure simplify the decision-making process regarding type of prosthesis and increase predictability of esthetic treatment outcomes. It was demonstrated that in the majority of cases, the space between the prosthetic crown and implant platform had to be filled with prosthetic materials.

Quality control for retinal OCT in multiple sclerosis: validation of the OSCAR-IB criteria.

BACKGROUND Retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) permits quantification of retinal layer atrophy relevant to assessment of neurodegeneration in multiple sclerosis (MS). Measurement artefacts may limit the use of OCT to MS research. OBJECTIVE An expert task force convened with the aim to provide guidance on the use of validated quality control (QC) criteria for the use of OCT in MS research and clinical trials. METHODS A prospective multi-centre (n = 13) study. Peripapillary ring scan QC rating of an OCT training set (n = 50) was followed by a test set (n = 50). Inter-rater agreement was calculated using kappa statistics. Results were discussed at a round table after the assessment had taken place. RESULTS The inter-rater QC agreement was substantial (kappa = 0.7). Disagreement was found highest for judging signal strength (kappa = 0.40). Future steps to resolve these issues were discussed. CONCLUSION Substantial agreement for QC assessment was achieved with aid of the OSCAR-IB criteria. The task force has developed a website for free online training and QC certification. The criteria may prove useful for future research and trials in MS using OCT as a secondary outcome measure in a multi-centre setting.

Coaches` subjective talent criteria in top-level soccer

Introduction: In professional soccer, talent selection relies on the subjective judgment of scouts and coaches. To date, little is known about coaches´ “eye for talent” (Christensen, 2009, p. 379) and the nature of the subjective criteria they use to identify those players with the greatest potential to achieve peak performance in adulthood (Williams & Reilly, 2000). Drawing on a constructivist approach (Kelly, 1991), this study explores coaches´ subjective talent criteria. It is assumed that coaches are able to verbalise and specify their talent criteria, and that these are related to their talent selection decisions based on instinct. Methods: Participants and generation of data. Five national youth soccer coaches (Mage = 55.6; SD = 5.03) were investigated at three appointments: (1) talent selection decision based on instinct, (2) semi-structured inductive interview to elicit each coaches´ talent criteria in detail, (3) communicative validation and evaluation of the players by each coach using the repertory grid technique (Fromm, 2004). Data Analysis: Interviews were transcribed and summarized with regard to each specified talent criterion. Each talent criterion was categorized using a bottom-up-approach (meaning categorization, Kvale, 1996). The repertory grid data was analysed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Results and Discussion: For each coach, six to nine talent criteria were elicited and specified. The subjective talent criteria include aspects of personality, cognitive perceptual skills, motor abilities, development, technique, social environment and physical constitution, which shows that the coaches use a multi-dimensional concept of talent. However, more than half of all criteria describe personality characteristics, in particular achievement motivation, volition and self-confidence. In contrast to Morris (2000), this result shows that coaches have a differentiated view of the personality characteristics required to achieve peak performance. As an indication of criterion validity, moderate to high correlations (.57 ≤ r ≤ .81) are found between the evaluations of the players according to the coaches´ talent criteria and their talent selection decision. The study shows that coaches are able to specify their subject talent criteria and that those criteria are strongly related to their instinctive selection decisions. References: Christensen, M. K. (2009). "An Eye for Talent": Talent Identification and the "Practical Sense" of Top-Level Soccer Coaches. Sociology of Sport Journal, 26, 365–382. Fromm, M. (2004). Introduction to the Repertory Grid Interview. Münster: Waxmann. Kelly, G. A. (1991). The Psychology of Personal Constructs: Volume One: Theory and personality. London: Routledge. Kvale, S. (1996). InterViews: An introduction to Qualitative Research Interviewing. Thousand Oaks: Sage. Morris, T. (2000). Psychological characteristics and talent identification in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 715–726. Williams, A. M., & Reilly, T. (2000). Talent identification and development in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 657–667.

Adequacy of venous thromboprophylaxis in acutely ill medical patients (IMPART): multisite comparison of different clinical decision support systems

BACKGROUND: The adequacy of thromboprophylaxis prescriptions in acutely ill hospitalized medical patients needs improvement. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively assess the efficacy of thromboprophylaxis adequacy of various clinical decision support systems (CDSS) with the aim of increasing the use of explicit criteria for thromboprophylaxis prescription in nine Swiss medical services. METHODS: We randomly assigned medical services to a pocket digital assistant program (PDA), pocket cards (PC) and no CDSS (controls). In centers using an electronic chart, an e-alert system (eAlerts) was developed. After 4 months, we compared post-CDSS with baseline thromboprophylaxis adequacy for the various CDSS and control groups. RESULTS: Overall, 1085 patients were included (395 controls, 196 PC, 168 PDA, 326 eAlerts), 651 pre- and 434 post-CDSS implementation: 472 (43.5%) presented a risk of VTE justifying thromboprophylaxis (31.8% pre, 61.1% post) and 556 (51.2%) received thromboprophylaxis (54.2% pre, 46.8% post). The overall adequacy (% patients with adequate prescription) of pre- and post-CDSS implementation was 56.2 and 50.7 for controls (P = 0.29), 67.3 and 45.3 for PC (P = 0.002), 66.0 and 64.9 for PDA (P = 0.99), 50.5 and 56.2 for eAlerts (P = 0.37), respectively, eAlerts limited overprescription (56% pre, 31% post, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: While pocket cards and handhelds did not improve thromboprophylaxis adequacy, eAlerts had a modest effect, particularly on the reduction of overprescription. This effect only partially contributes to the improvement of patient safety and more work is needed towards institution-tailored tools.

Early non-invasive cardiac output monitoring in hemodynamically unstable intensive care patients: A multi-center randomized controlled trial

Introduction Acute hemodynamic instability increases morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether early non-invasive cardiac output monitoring enhances hemodynamic stabilization and improves outcome. Methods A multicenter, randomized controlled trial was conducted in three European university hospital intensive care units in 2006 and 2007. A total of 388 hemodynamically unstable patients identified during their first six hours in the intensive care unit (ICU) were randomized to receive either non-invasive cardiac output monitoring for 24 hrs (minimally invasive cardiac output/MICO group; n = 201) or usual care (control group; n = 187). The main outcome measure was the proportion of patients achieving hemodynamic stability within six hours of starting the study. Results The number of hemodynamic instability criteria at baseline (MICO group mean 2.0 (SD 1.0), control group 1.8 (1.0); P = .06) and severity of illness (SAPS II score; MICO group 48 (18), control group 48 (15); P = .86)) were similar. At 6 hrs, 45 patients (22%) in the MICO group and 52 patients (28%) in the control group were hemodynamically stable (mean difference 5%; 95% confidence interval of the difference -3 to 14%; P = .24). Hemodynamic support with fluids and vasoactive drugs, and pulmonary artery catheter use (MICO group: 19%, control group: 26%; P = .11) were similar in the two groups. The median length of ICU stay was 2.0 (interquartile range 1.2 to 4.6) days in the MICO group and 2.5 (1.1 to 5.0) days in the control group (P = .38). The hospital mortality was 26% in the MICO group and 21% in the control group (P = .34). Conclusions Minimally-invasive cardiac output monitoring added to usual care does not facilitate early hemodynamic stabilization in the ICU, nor does it alter the hemodynamic support or outcome. Our results emphasize the need to evaluate technologies used to measure stroke volume and cardiac output--especially their impact on the process of care--before any large-scale outcome studies are attempted.

Managing water resources in dynamic settings: A multi-level, multi-stakeholder perspective

The aim of the present article is to contribute to the debate on the role of research in sustainable management of water and related resources, based on experiences in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro and Pangani river basins in East Africa. Both basins are characterised by humid, resource-rich highlands and extensive semi-arid lowlands, by growing demand for water and related resources, and by numerous conflicting stakeholder interests. Issues of scale and level, on the one hand, and the normative dimension of sustainability, on the other hand, are identified as key challenges for research that seeks to produce relevant and applicable results for informed decision-making. A multi-level and multi-stakeholder perspective, defined on the basis of three minimal principles, is proposed here as an approach to research for informed decision-making. Key lessons learnt from applying these principles in the two river basins are presented and discussed in the light of current debate.

Surgery for the bone-anchored hearing aid

This review covers the surgery for the bone-anchored hearing aid (Baha(®)). PREOPERATIVE WORKUP: A review of the indications and preoperative diagnostics shows that best results are generally obtained in patients with conductive or mixed hearing loss rehabilitation when surgery is not applicable or has failed and in patients that suffer from single-sided deafness. An audiogram must confirm that the bone conduction hearing is within the inclusion criteria. A computed tomography scan is performed in cases of malformation to assure sufficient bone thickness at the site of screw implantation.