9 resultados para Modelo inter-regional de insumo-produto
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
Methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide emissions from lakes are relevant for assessing the greenhouse gas output of wetlands. However, only few standardized datasets describe concentrations of these gases in lakes across different geographical regions. We studied concentrations and stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of CH4 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in 32 small lakes from Finland, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland in late summer. Higher concentrations and δ13C values of DIC were observed in calcareous lakes than in lakes on non-calcareous areas. In stratified lakes, δ13C values of DIC were generally lower in the hypolimnion due to the degradation of organic matter (OM). Unexpectedly, increased δ13C values of DIC were registered above the sediment in several lakes. This may reflect carbonate dissolution in calcareous lakes or methanogenesis in deepwater layers or in the sediments. Surface water CH4 concentrations were generally higher in western and central European lakes than in Fennoscandian lakes, possibly due to higher CH4 production in the littoral sediments and lateral transport, whereas CH4 concentrations in the hypolimnion did not differ significantly between the regions. The δ13C values of CH4 in the sediment suggest that δ13C values of biogenic CH4 are not necessarily linked to δ13C values of sedimentary OM but may be strongly influenced by OM quality and methanogenic pathway. Our study suggests that CH4 and DIC cycling in small lakes differ between geographical regions and that this should be taken into account when regional studies on greenhouse gas emissions are upscaled to inter-regional scales.
Resumo:
This article focuses on the EU’s strategy for choosing regulatory venues to negotiate trade agreements. It analyses the existence of a clear venue hierarchy since the late 1990s and the recent change leading to a blurring of any clear preference for using bilateral, inter-regional or multilateral settings. The article challenges domestic explanations of the EU’s choice of venue, stressing the autonomy of the Commission as a major factor. Using a principal-agent framework, it shows that the Commission’s agenda-setting powers, the existence of interest divergence among principals (e.g. Member States, business groups) and the multi-level system facilitate agency.
Resumo:
Forest management is known to influence species diversity of various taxa but inconsistent or even contrasting effects are reported for arthropods. Regional differences in management as well as differences in regional species pools might be responsible for these inconsistencies, but, inter-regional replicated studies that account for regional variability are rare. We investigated the effect of forest type on the abundance, diversity, community structure and composition of two important ground-dwelling beetle families, Carabidae and Staphylinidae, in 149 forest stands distributed over three regions in Germany. In particular we focused on recent forestry history, stand age and dominant tree species, in addition to a number of environmental descriptors. Overall management effects on beetle communities were small and mainly mediated by structural habitat parameters such as the cover of forest canopy or the plant diversity on forest stands. The general response of both beetle taxa to forest management was similar in all regions: abundance and species richness of beetles was higher in older than in younger stands and species richness was lower in unmanaged than in managed stands. The abundance ratio of forest species-to-open habitat species differed between regions, but generally increased from young to old stands, from coniferous to deciduous stands and from managed to unmanaged stands. The response of both beetle families to dominant tree species was variable among regions and staphylinid richness varied in the response to recent forestry history. Our results suggest that current forest management practices change the composition of ground-dwelling beetle communities mainly by favoring generalists and open habitat species. To protect important forest beetle communities and thus the ecosystem functions and services provided by them, we suggest to shelter remaining ancient forests and to develop near-to-nature management strategies by prolonging rotation periods and increasing structural diversity of managed forests. Possible geographic variations in the response of beetle communities need to be considered in conservation-orientated forest management strategies.
Resumo:
In central Switzerland, the earliest wetland settlements with definitely attested finds and features date into the second half of the 5th millennium BC. Combining the information they have yielded with that from dryland sites, we can construct a detailed picture of material culture at the turn of the 5th to the 4th millennium. On this basis, the definition of clearly delimited archaeological cultures seems questionable, not only from a theoretical point of view. Similiarities and differences in the pottery show small-scale regional units defined via vessel forms as well as stylistic and technological aspects. Yet there are also inter-regional connections: roundbased vessels with opposing handles are typical for Lake Zurich, central and western Switzerland, the Valais and the central Rhône valley. In turn, ‘foreign‘ types such as shoulder-band beakers indicate regular connections between groups living in central Switzerland and those in Alsace and southern Germany. Are these beakers ‘imports‘ or locally produced items (‘imitations‘) indicating the adoption of ‘foreign‘ vessel types and concepts? This and similar material culture phenomena result in a picture of many material entanglements and problematise the kinds of relationships and mobility which might have existed. Our paper addresses these questions and discusses how and whether these interwoven connections changed in the early 4th millennium.
Resumo:
The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.
Resumo:
Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.
Resumo:
The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.