Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Accurate rainfall data are the key input parameter for modelling river discharge and soil loss. Remote areas of Ethiopia often lack adequate precipitation data and where these data are available, there might be substantial temporal or spatial gaps. To counter this challenge, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) readily provides weather data for any geographic location on earth between 1979 and 2014. This study assesses the applicability of CFSR weather data to three watersheds in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. To this end, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up to simulate discharge and soil loss, using CFSR and conventional weather data, in three small-scale watersheds ranging from 112 to 477 ha. Calibrated simulation results were compared to observed river discharge and observed soil loss over a period of 32 years. The conventional weather data resulted in very good discharge outputs for all three watersheds, while the CFSR weather data resulted in unsatisfactory discharge outputs for all of the three gauging stations. Soil loss simulation with conventional weather inputs yielded satisfactory outputs for two of three watersheds, while the CFSR weather input resulted in three unsatisfactory results. Overall, the simulations with the conventional data resulted in far better results for discharge and soil loss than simulations with CFSR data. The simulations with CFSR data were unable to adequately represent the specific regional climate for the three watersheds, performing even worse in climatic areas with two rainy seasons. Hence, CFSR data should not be used lightly in remote areas with no conventional weather data where no prior analysis is possible.

Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Biogeochemical processes in a clay formation in situ experiment: Part F - Reactive transport modelling

Reactive transport modelling was used to simulate solute transport, thermodynamic reactions, ion exchange and biodegradation in the Porewater Chemistry (PC) experiment at the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory. Simulations show that the most important chemical processes controlling the fluid composition within the borehole and the surrounding formation during the experiment are ion exchange, biodegradation and dissolution/precipitation reactions involving pyrite and carbonate minerals. In contrast, thermodynamic mineral dissolution/precipitation reactions involving alumo-silicate minerals have little impact on the fluid composition on the time-scale of the experiment. With the accurate description of the initial chemical condition in the formation in combination with kinetic formulations describing the different stages of bacterial activities, it has been possible to reproduce the evolution of important system parameters, such as the pH, redox potential, total organic C. dissolved inorganic C and SO(4) concentration. Leaching of glycerol from the pH-electrode may be the primary source of organic material that initiated bacterial growth, which caused the chemical perturbation in the borehole. Results from these simulations are consistent with data from the over-coring and demonstrate that the Opalinus Clay has a high buffering capacity in terms of chemical perturbations caused by bacterial activity. This buffering capacity can be attributed to the carbonate system as well as to the reactivity of clay surfaces.

Risk attribution of Campylobacter infection by age group using exposure modelling

Knowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data on Campylobacter incidence for the years 2002-2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17-39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22-32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6-9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25-50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to 'other risk factors' requires further attention.

Mobile phone technologies and advanced data analysis towards the enhancement of diabetes self-management

Advances in the area of mobile and wireless communication for healthcare (m-Health) along with the improvements in information science allow the design and development of new patient-centric models for the provision of personalised healthcare services, increase of patient independence and improvement of patient's self-control and self-management capabilities. This paper comprises a brief overview of the m-Health applications towards the self-management of individuals with diabetes mellitus and the enhancement of their quality of life. Furthermore, the design and development of a mobile phone application for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) self-management is presented. The technical evaluation of the application, which permits the management of blood glucose measurements, blood pressure measurements, insulin dosage, food/drink intake and physical activity, has shown that the use of the mobile phone technologies along with data analysis methods might improve the self-management of T1DM.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation: activity in Switzerland compared with surrounding European countries

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a highly specialised procedure used to treat malignancies of the lymphohaematopoietic system as well as some acquired and inherited disorders of the blood. This analysis by the Swiss Blood Stem Cell Transplantation Group, based on data from 2008-2011, describes, treatment rates in Switzerland for specific indications and compares this with data from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, corrected for the size of the population. Differences in transplant rates, in rates for particular indications, and in the use of specific transplant technologies such as use of unrelated donors, use of cord blood or mismatched family donors are described. These data are put in correlation with donor availability from international registries and with number of transplant teams and number of procedures per team all corrected for population size.

Hematopoietic and endothelial progenitor cell trafficking in patients with myeloproliferative diseases

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES. The presence of circulating hematopoietic progenitor cells in patients with myeloproliferative diseases (MPD) has been described. However, the exact nature of such progenitor cells has not been specified until now. The aim of this work was to investigate the presence of endothelial precursor cells in the blood of patients with MPD and to assess the role of the endothelial cell lineage in the pathophysiology of this disease. DESIGN AND METHODS. Endothelial progenitor cell marker expression (CD34, prominin (CD133), kinase insert domain receptor (KDR) or vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR2), and von Willebrand factor) was assessed in the blood of 53 patients with MPD by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Clonogenic stem cell assays were performed with progenitor cells and monocytes to assess differentiation towards the endothelial cell lineage. The patients' were divided according to whether they had essential thrombocythemia (ET, n=17), polycythemia vera (PV, n=21) or chronic idiopathic myelofibrosis (CIMF, n=15) and their data compared with data from normal controls (n=16) and patients with secondary thrombo- or erythrocytosis (n=17). RESULTS. Trafficking of CD34-positive cells was increased above the physiological level in 4/17 patients with ET, 5/21 patients with PV and 13/15 patients with CIMF. A subset of patients with CIMF co-expressed the markers CD34, prominin (CD133) and KDR, suggesting the presence of endothelial precursors among the circulating progenitor cells. Clonogenic stem cell assays confirmed differentiation towards both the hematopoietic and the endothelial cell lineage in 5/10 patients with CIMF. Furthermore, the molecular markers trisomy 8 and JAK2 V617F were found in the grown endothelial cells of patients positive for trisomy 8 or JAK2 V617F in the peripheral blood, confirming the common clonal origin of both hematopoietic and endothelial cell lineages. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS. Endothelial precursor cells are increased in the blood of a subset of patients with CIMF, and peripheral endothelial cells bear the same molecular markers as hematopoietic cells, suggesting a primary role of pathological endothelial cells in this disease.

Normobaric hyperoxia--induced improvement in cerebral metabolism and reduction in intracranial pressure in patients with severe head injury: a prospective historical cohort-matched study

OBJECT: The effect of normobaric hyperoxia (fraction of inspired O2 [FIO2] concentration 100%) in the treatment of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of normobaric hyperoxia on five cerebral metabolic indices, which have putative prognostic significance following TBI in humans. METHODS: At two independent neurointensive care units, the authors performed a prospective study of 52 patients with severe TBI who were treated for 24 hours with 100% FIO2, starting within 6 hours of admission. Data for these patients were compared with data for a cohort of 112 patients who were treated in the past; patients in the historical control group matched the patients in our study according to their Glasgow Coma Scale scores after resuscitation and their intracranial pressure within the first 8 hours after admission. Patients were monitored with the aid of intracerebral microdialysis and tissue O2 probes. Normobaric hyperoxia treatment resulted in a significant improvement in biochemical markers in the brain compared with the baseline measures for patients treated in our study (patients acting as their own controls) and also compared with findings from the historical control group. In the dialysate the glucose levels increased (369.02 +/- 20.1 micromol/L in the control group and 466.9 +/- 20.39 micromol/L in the 100% O2 group, p = 0.001), whereas the glutamate and lactate levels significantly decreased (p < 0.005). There were also reductions in the lactate/glucose and lactate/pyruvate ratios. Intracranial pressure in the treatment group was reduced significantly both during and after hyperoxia treatment compared with the control groups (15.03 +/- 0.8 mm Hg in the control group and 12.13 +/- 0.75 mm Hg in the 100% O2 group, p < 0.005) with no changes in cerebral perfusion pressure. Outcomes of the patients in the treatment group improved. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study support the hypothesis that normobaric hyperoxia in patients with severe TBI improves the indices of brain oxidative metabolism. Based on these data further mechanistic studies and a prospective randomized controlled trial are warranted.

Geocenter coordinates estimated from GNSS data as viewed by perturbation theory

Time series of geocenter coordinates were determined with data of two global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), namely the U.S. GPS (Global Positioning System) and the Russian GLONASS (Global’naya Nawigatsionnaya Sputnikowaya Sistema). The data was recorded in the years 2008–2011 by a global network of 92 permanently observing GPS/GLONASS receivers. Two types of daily solutions were generated independently for each GNSS, one including the estimation of geocenter coordinates and one without these parameters. A fair agreement for GPS and GLONASS was found in the geocenter x- and y-coordinate series. Our tests, however, clearly reveal artifacts in the z-component determined with the GLONASS data. Large periodic excursions in the GLONASS geocenter z-coordinates of about 40 cm peak-to-peak are related to the maximum elevation angles of the Sun above/below the orbital planes of the satellite system and thus have a period of about 4 months (third of a year). A detailed analysis revealed that the artifacts are almost uniquely governed by the differences of the estimates of direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) in the two solution series (with and without geocenter estimation). A simple formula is derived, describing the relation between the geocenter z-coordinate and the corresponding parameter of the SRP. The effect can be explained by first-order perturbation theory of celestial mechanics. The theory also predicts a heavy impact on the GNSS-derived geocenter if once-per-revolution SRP parameters are estimated in the direction of the satellite’s solar panel axis. Specific experiments using GPS observations revealed that this is indeed the case. Although the main focus of this article is on GNSS, the theory developed is applicable to all satellite observing techniques. We applied the theory to satellite laser ranging (SLR) solutions using LAGEOS. It turns out that the correlation between geocenter and SRP parameters is not a critical issue for the SLR solutions. The reasons are threefold: The direct SRP is about a factor of 30–40 smaller for typical geodetic SLR satellites than for GNSS satellites, allowing it in most cases to not solve for SRP parameters (ruling out the correlation between these parameters and the geocenter coordinates); the orbital arc length of 7 days (which is typically used in SLR analysis) contains more than 50 revolutions of the LAGEOS satellites as compared to about two revolutions of GNSS satellites for the daily arcs used in GNSS analysis; the orbit geometry is not as critical for LAGEOS as for GNSS satellites, because the elevation angle of the Sun w.r.t. the orbital plane is usually significantly changing over 7 days.

Prognostic implications of the seventh edition of the international union against cancer classification for patients with gastric cancer: the Western experience of patients treated in a single-center European institution

PURPOSE Validity of the seventh edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer (AJCC/UICC) staging systems for gastric cancer has been evaluated in several studies, mostly in Asian patient populations. Only few data are available on the prognostic implications of the new classification system on a Western population. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic ability based on a German patient cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS Data from a single-center cohort of 1,767 consecutive patients surgically treated for gastric cancer were classified according to the seventh edition and were compared using the previous TNM/UICC classification. Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed for all TNM stages and UICC stages in a comparative manner. Additional survival receiver operating characteristic analyses and bootstrap-based goodness-of-fit comparisons via Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were performed to assess and compare prognostic performance of the competing classification systems. RESULTS We identified the UICC pT/pN stages according to the seventh edition of the AJCC/UICC guidelines as well as resection status, age, Lauren histotype, lymph-node ratio, and tumor grade as independent prognostic factors in gastric cancer, which is consistent with data from previous Asian studies. Overall survival rates according to the new edition were significantly different for each individual's pT, pN, and UICC stage. However, BIC analysis revealed that, owing to higher complexity, the new staging system might not significantly alter predictability for overall survival compared with the old system within the analyzed cohort from a statistical point of view. CONCLUSION The seventh edition of the AJCC/UICC classification was found to be valid with distinctive prognosis for each stage. However, the AJCC/UICC classification has become more complex without improving predictability for overall survival in a Western population. Therefore, simplification with better predictability of overall survival of patients with gastric cancer should be considered when revising the seventh edition.

Loss of DAXX and ATRX are associated with chromosome instability and reduced survival of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

BACKGROUND & AIMS Sporadic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) are rare and genetically heterogeneous. Chromosome instability (CIN) has been detected in pNETs from patients with poor outcomes, but no specific genetic factors have been associated with CIN. Mutations in death domain-associated protein gene (DAXX) or ATR-X gene (ATRX) (which both encode proteins involved in chromatin remodeling) have been detected in 40% of pNETs, in association with activation of alternative lengthening of telomeres. We investigated whether loss of DAXX or ATRX, and consequent alternative lengthening of telomeres, are related to CIN in pNETs. We also assessed whether loss of DAXX or ATRX is associated with specific phenotypes of pNETs. METHODS We collected well-differentiated primary pNET samples from 142 patients at the University Hospital Zurich and from 101 patients at the University Hospital Bern (both located in Switzerland). Clinical follow-up data were obtained for 149 patients from general practitioners and tumor registries. The tumors were reclassified into 3 groups according to the 2010 World Health Organization classification. Samples were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and telomeric fluorescence in situ hybridization. We correlated loss of DAXX, or ATRX, expression, and activation of alternative lengthening of telomeres with data from comparative genomic hybridization array studies, as well as with clinical and pathological features of the tumors and relapse and survival data. RESULTS Loss of DAXX or ATRX protein and alternative lengthening of telomeres were associated with CIN in pNETs. Furthermore, loss of DAXX or ATRX correlated with tumor stage and metastasis, reduced time of relapse-free survival, and decreased time of tumor-associated survival. CONCLUSIONS Loss of DAXX or ATRX is associated with CIN in pNETs and shorter survival times of patients. These results support the hypothesis that DAXX- and ATRX-negative tumors are a more aggressive subtype of pNET, and could lead to identification of strategies to target CIN in pancreatic tumors.

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Measurement of isolated-photon pair production in pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The ATLAS experiment at the LHC has measured the production cross section of events with two isolated photons in the final state, in proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV. The full data set collected in 2011, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.9 fb(-1), is used. The amount of background, from hadronic jets and isolated electrons, is estimated with data-driven techniques and subtracted. The total cross section, for two isolated photons with transverse energies above 25 GeV and 22 GeV respectively, in the acceptance of the electromagnetic calorimeter (vertical bar eta vertical bar < 1.37 and 1.52 < vertical bar eta vertical bar 2.37) and with an angular separation Delta R > 0.4, is 44.0(-4.2)(+3.2) pb. The differential cross sections as a function of the di-photon invariant mass, transverse momentum, azimuthal separation, and cosine of the polar angle of the largest transverse energy photon in the Collins-Soper di-photon rest frame are also measured. The results are compared to the prediction of leading-order parton-shower and next-to-leading-order and next-to-next-to-leading-order parton-level generators.